bean5302

Not service time. Options and talking about why Wallner wasn't called up earlier rather than now. Varland and Wallner (if he was called up today) wouldn't be eligible for the playoffs no matter how well they play. Considering how badly the Twins needed an outfielder and a bat (they went out and got... Billy Hamilton), Wallner would have been a reasonable choice just like Varland was a reasonable choice considering how badly they needed a starter. Instead, the Twins waited until the month turned over so they wouldn't burn an option.

Where have we heard it before? Every single year nobody stepped up in the AL Central... so pretty much every year in recent times.

I was at the game. Billy Hamilton is a AAA player. Hamilton is a total and complete utter black hole at the plate. One of the worst hitters in the history of MLB. I'd rather have Matt Wallner in the lineup playing shortstop than Billy Hamilton in the lineup playing center field.

Right. I'd rather have Gilberto Celestino and Billy Hamilton taking Matt Wallner's at bats.

I don't see the same struggles. I just see some rough luck when Wallner started off in AAA. He was still taking walks and his K rate didn't skyrocket or something. We're talking about Wallners first 10 games just being rough on the balls finding openings. As the plate appearances have piled up, Wallner has shown off his arm, his surprising (and poorly documented) speed and his power. Why haven't the Twins called him up? They wanted to manipulate his options. Same as Varland.

This stretch of 5 games against the Guardians may well decide the Twins' season. The Twins are 4.0 games back of Cleveland and 1.0 games back of Chicago. If the Twins were to sweep the Guardians (exceedingly unlikely), they'd almost certainly be in the division lead. If the Twins were to get totally swept, they'd be 10 games back and fried extra crispy. How I like my chicken... not my favorite MLB team. 1-4, Twins are 1% playoff potential. 2-3, Twins are 5-10% playoff potential. 3-2, Twins are 20-30% playoff potential. 4-1, Twins are 30-50% playoff potential. 5-0, Twins are 50%-70% playoff potential. There's a range because of what the White Sox might do in addition to the Guardians. In order to give the team a good shot at winning the division, the Twins really need to take 4 of 5 here.

Joe Mauer would have refused the beer. Did you have any milk?

Larnach is still a big question mark. I'm not as concerned with his durability... yet, but I am concerned about how changeups and sliders are both kryptonite against him and he struggles against sinkers, too. The only pitch Larnach can reliably square up is a four seam fastball, though he's passable against curveballs, too. It all boils down to that ugly high whiff rate. Larnach's hit tool was horribly inflated. Larnach's "power" is gap power, much like Joe Mauer. Mauer had a lot of strength and hit a lot of balls very hard, but he didn't hit them in the air high enough to generate a lot of home runs. Larnach is not, and outside of a single year in college, has not ever demonstrated plus home run production. Fans expecting Larnach to 25+ home runs a year are either unaware of the fact he's really never hit a lot of home runs or hoping he changes his plate approach/swing style to generate more loft. Larnach is probably a 10-15 HR per year kinda guy right now. I'd say he does need to make an adjustment if he's going to swing and miss at as many balls at Miguel Sano does. If you miss on so many pitches, when you connect, it needs to be for more than a double or single. Larnach certainly has the power to regularly put balls in the seats if they're hit the right way. Defensively, Larnach definitely worked on something conditioning related this past off season because he was faster this year. Measurably faster and that played nicely for his defense. Larnach is credited with good instincts and a good feel for the game and a great read and jump off balls in the outfield can make up a lot for a lack of true speed. In regard to something like Larnach's impressive WAR in 51 games... I'll take it with a big grain of salt. Larnach got very lucky against sliders early in the season so I felt he may have turned a big corner and learned to adapt. Unfortunately, after April, Larnach was once again totally inept against them. It was just a flash in a pan... probably. Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach are very different players, but of the two, I'd rather have Nick Gordon starting every day as the left fielder because of Larnach's weak arm and Gordon's more proven results at the plate. That said, I don't think that's a question which needs to be asked since Gordon is much more likely to replace Max Kepler in my opinion. Would I want to "rely" on Trevor Larnach? No way. His injury history, limited versatility, poor performance against most pitches at the MLB level, extreme whiff rates and limited power production are all at odds with high expectations. A couple difficult but successful adjustments and Larnach could be a very valuable every day starter, but attempts at significant adjustments don't seem to be very successful at the MLB level.

Yeah, Fangraphs essentially adds up all the free agent contracts, adds up all those players' WARs and then divides the cumulative contract value by the cumulative WAR created from my understanding. In general, free agents produce 1 WAR for $8MM spent (I think it's a little higher than that now). Including players like Stephen Strasburg.

I'd probably give Judge the MVP over Ohtani if the season ended today. Even though Ohtani has been a great hitter and starter, Judge's season is next level and he's likely to finish over 10.0 fWAR and maybe 10 bWAR. Ohtani = 3.5 fWAR batting 4.6 fWAR pitching = 8.1 fWAR Judge = 9.7 fWAR batting/fielding. Ohtani = 3.3 bWAR batting 4.8 bWAR pitching = 8.1 bWAR Judge = 9.1 bWAR batting/fielding WAR is a funny thing though. Since it's a multiplier, a couple 0-5 days in a row drops the offensive value relative to peers (like wRC+) and that value gets multiplied by all the plate appearances a player has so it can have multiplied effect. Judge could lose or gain 0.5 WAR in a double header. ...and the season doesn't end today. Also, how Ohtani went about generating his value is more impressive.

I know everybody hates Gary Sanchez because he had the audacity to not be an MVP while stealing plate appearances from uber elite dreamy Ryan Jeffers... but Sanchez is at 32% caught stealing this year vs. MLB average 25%. He's above average in pop time and throwing strength and his throws are on target. Sanchez is a bit above average for his career as well. He throws out quite a few base runners. That aside, I like the pitch clock the most. It's so desperately needed at this point. Picking up the base at MLB games will make them a lot more fun to watch and attend.

They do not try to buy at $8MM per 1 WAR. They seem to try to buy at $6MM, but many free agents underperform expectations. It winds up netting out to 1 WAR per $8MM they spend. At least the last I looked into it. i.e. a free agent player producing 5 WAR gets $30MM/yr on a long term deal. The free agent player actually generates more like 3.7 WAR after the contract is signed with some free agents tanking and a few outperforming. Cost $8MM per WAR, but the team was hoping to buy at $6MM. But yeah, I agree with you in regard to Buxton providing significant value at a reasonable cost on his own this year. Buxton produced 4 fWAR this year. While I've been critical of using season WAR numbers in a vacuum on Buxton before because Buxton requires a MLB starting caliber CF to back him up (both from a roster space and additional cost standpoint), from the productivity standpoint, he's been worth $15MM.

Yep. Wasn't in the game logs because it was the playoffs rather than the regular season, perhaps. Festa went 6.0 innings, not 6.2, but it was definitely a dominant start only allowing 2 hits and 0 walks with the 10 strikeouts. I stand by what I said in my synopsis, though.

Every no hitter thrown in the past 6 seasons... Ried Detmers - 5/10/22 = 108 pitches Tyler Gilbert - 8/14/21 = 102 pitches Corey Kluber - 5/19/21 = 101 pitches Spencer Turnbull - 5/18/21 = 117 pitches (UCL tear diagnosed 3 games later) Wade Miley - 5/7/21 = 114 pitches John Means - 5/5/21 = 113 pitches Carlos Rodon - 4/14/21 = 114 pitches Joe Musgrove - 4/9/21 = 112 pitches Alec Mills - 9/13/20 = 114 pitches Lucas Giolito - 8/25/20 = 101 pitches Justin Verlander - 9/1/19 = 120 pitches (UCL tear diagnosed 6 starts later) Mike Fiers - 5/7/19 = 131 pitches James Paxton - 5/8/18 = 99 pitches Sean Manea - 4/21/18 = 108 pitches Edison Volquez - 6/3/17 = 98 pitches 2 of the 3 pitchers who were allowed to go more than 114 pitches ended their seasons with UCL surgery a few starts thereafter. Joe Ryan throwing fewer than 120 pitches was extremely unlikely and he was on pace for the most pitches thrown in a no hitter in recent history. Ryan possibly could have finished the game at fewer pitches than Mike Fiers, but that's it. Even in a perfect scenario (1 pitch, 1 out), Ryan would be throwing more pitches than 50% of no hitters. The arguments that "well back in the day!" harken to a different era where pitchers weren't throwing with as much effort as they do today and they weren't throwing so many sliders which seem to be more dangerous to UCLs. UCL injuries are common now when they were once rare. It's actually shocking how many of the pitchers on the list above eventually lost a season to UCL surgery eventually. Add a half dozen of those names to the list beyond what I noted.

Again... an absolute guarantee of a career ending or altering injury should not be the bar for pulling a pitcher.

Headrick is an interesting prospect, but he's given up 40 hits in 39 innings with a 23.4% HR/FB rate at AA. He's been pretty solid on walks and the strikeouts are absolutely elite, but it seems like batters are finding something to really hit hard in his offerings. That said, 39 innings in 9 games is a fairly small sample size... it's also only 4.1 innings per appearance, but it does make sense the Twins wouldn't be pushing his innings too hard this year after so little work over the past couple years.

Festa has been pretty solid after his promotion to A+ this year, but nothing to write home about. His last 5 games have shown decline in the peripherals suggesting major regression is due. 13 G, 79.2 IP, 2.71 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.19 WHIP, 8.47 K/9 (23.1%), 3.16 BB/9 (8.6%) last 5 games 5 G, 24.0 IP, 2.62 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 7.12 K/9 (19.0%), 3.37 BB/9 (9.0%)

I don't think Baldelli goes unless Falvey and Levine also go. I'm not a fan of Baldelli, but I think this article is pretty reasonable. Baldelli isn't to blame for a bullpen weak on talent to support the front office TTO pitching strategy. Baldelli isn't to blame for the recent IL mess (Kepler, Buxton and Polanco out at the same time). Baldelli is to blame for the decisions made on which bullpen arms to use and whether or not the starters should have been allowed to pitch an extra inning to help the bullpen. Baldelli is responsible for the lack of solid fundamental play. As far as Baldelli's great relationship with the players, I doubt the rotation veterans or Jhoan Duran would jump on board the Baldelli lover train, but I honestly don't know. It's not like the players are going to publicly throw their manager under the bus as a group. I don't think liking your manager is as important as respecting your manager.

1. Maeda 2. Gray 3. Mahle 4. Varland 5. Ryan *Ober *Winder *Dobnak *Smeltzer **Paddack *Best suited to bullpen **Injured to start season They're all under contract next year. Paddack won't be ready till mid year, but that's 10. We also have Woods-Richardson at AAA. I don't think the Twins need "more" starters and I honestly don't think they need more quality, either. The rotation looks pretty good next year to me with solid depth.

Your strawman is noted.

Was Joe Ryan guaranteed to never be able to pitch again if he threw 136 pitches? The bar should not be an absolute guaranteed career altering injury or continue the no-hitter attempt. The arguments about Joe Ryan coming back out for the 8th inning aren't compelling enough for me to be angry about it. For multiple reasons. 1. Joe Ryan was allowed to come out for the 7th despite having thrown more pitches than his average start at 95. If Ryan had gotten through the 7th with minimal pitches, I think Baldelli would let him go out for the 8th, but Ryan threw 11 pitches in the 7th. Not a lot, but not hyper efficient, either. It put Ryan into a spot where he was virtually guaranteed to go to 120+ pitches and on a pace for 136. 2. There were relievers warmed up. Getting relievers up and down repeatedly in the bullpen is considered bad practice. 3. The theory on arm injuries, especially the UCL, is it's often an acute thing from bad mechanics or weakened muscles in elbow. When humans are tired and performing strenuous exercise (throwing a baseball really fast, lifting heavy weights), they're more likely to become injured because they get lazy on their form and mechanics. At what point does Joe Ryan slip up, get tired and throw a slider without paying attention to or being able to control his mechanics? Would that slip up have resulted in a torn UCL? I don't know. Probably not. Baldelli has regularly allowed Ryan to throw over 100 pitches this year (up to 110), but Ryan is not an efficient pitcher as his pitches get fouled off a lot. He typically throws 15-20 pitches per inning. The risk was probably not worth it. Side note, I was at the game and even I boo'd them replacing Ryan. I couldn't see the pitch count, though, since the screen which shows it to my seats was broken/malfunctioning.

I couldn't care less about "combined" no hitters. They're meaningless to me. Completely. Nothing more than a participation trophy. Still, Joe Ryan was at 106 pitches. I can't see the Twins allowing him to go 135+ pitches in pursuit of a no hitter just to have him blow his shoulder out (See: Mets and Johan Santana)

Buxton - Will never play a full season in his career. He's going to finish the season with his highest number of games played in the past 5 years. Of course he's been hurt. He'll always be hurt. Always, always. He's produced 4 WAR this year, matching his career best. Polanco - Will likely qualify for a championship trophy this year (full season) with 120+ games played. It's not like he's missed the season or something. Did it suck to lose him? Sure. It probably cost the Twins 1 win. Kepler - He's a 2 WAR player. A solid starter, but nothing more. The dropoff for Kepler to Celestino or Garlick isn't that bad. Besides, Kepler is on pace for about 135 games this year. He'll qualify for a full season. Sano - Is a scrub level player. He's produced 1.0 or more WAR in 1 of his past 5 seasons. Had the Twins not locked him up after 2019, he would have been non-tendered already. It was a blessing Arraez got to start full time at 1st base (where he made the All Star Game). The Twins benefitted at least 4 WAR from Sano not playing 1B this year. Kirilloff - No defensive value and all the scouting grades and promises in the world can't make up for the fact Kirilloff refuses to take walks leading to a low OBP and he hasn't shown significant power. He was projected at under 1 WAR this year. Jeffers - Is, at best, neutral compared to Sanchez. It would have been nice to have Jeffers so the Twins weren't playing Sandy Leon, but it's not like the Twins lost much here. Revisionist history abounds with Lewis. He was not expected to play at the MLB level this year. He was called up because he was (totally unexpectedly) torching AAA pitching. Nobody saw this coming. Lewis holding his own at AAA would have been considered a major achievement, let alone playing well at the MLB level... where he was never going to start more than a handful of games at SS because of Correa anyway. Side note. Had Lewis remained healthy and continued to play well as a utility player, Gordon likely would have been DFA'd or traded. What does it matter if the Twins are playing guys they didn't expect to be playing if the replacements are just as good, better or almost as good as the intended starters? The inescapable truth is the Twins roster was utterly log-jammed and there was no space for all these supposed first team guys you've penciled in, but let's go ahead and build this dream roster. C - Jeffers 1B - Sano (Twins lose 4 WAR) 2B - Polanco (Twins gain 1 WAR) 3B - Urshela (No change) SS - Correa (No change) LF - Larnach (No change) CF - Buxton (Twins gain 3 WAR)*** Buxton playing a full season at CF will never, ever, ever, EVER happen RF - Kepler (No change) DH - Arraez (Twins gain 1.0 WAR) UI/UO - Lewis UI/UO - Kirilloff BC - Sanchez PH - Miranda In this scenario, Gordon doesn't play for the Twins, Miranda and Kirilloff are bit players getting only a handful of at bats, Arraez has his value diminished at DH instead of 1B, there's no difference at catcher and Lewis fills Gordon's role as a utility guy. For the regulars, I'm counting the Twins gaining just 1 single WAR. Just 1 win with the dream team vs. what they actually fielded. The Twins pitchers aren't worth anything. As has been pointed out, the ONLY actual starter who was in the rotation day 1 who is not in the rotation now or won't start at least 25+ games is Ober... a #5 guy. The Twins haven't lost any significant value from the starters. The Twins bullpen... exactly how much value do people expect from the bullpen. Like seriously? Alcala and Coulumbe were going to transform into something other than middle reliever? What did the Twins lose? 1.0 win? Maybe?

Same premise as other articles. Byron Buxton was going to play 162 games and produce 20 WAR. Royce Lewis was going to be a 10 WAR player and supplant Carlos Correa at SS. Trevor Larnach was going to learn how to hit a changeup or slider and transform into a stud. Miguel Sano and Alex Kirilloff were clearly better than Jose Miranda and Luis Arraez (or at least were capable of producing significant positive value for the first time in years) Polanco was on the 15 day IL. He's going to be at the edge of qualifying for a championship trophy. It's not like he lost the season... Winder wasn't expected to be a huge contributor this year, Ober is a #5 rotation arm.

As pointed out by many folks, the net impact of the injuries doesn't seem to have reasonably hit the WAR too hard. i.e. the players mentioned as critical injuries mostly had limited projected value to begin with. Obviously, if Larnach was going to put it all together this year and put up a 4 WAR campaign as a left fielder, it was a big loss, but it wasn't expected. Ownership clearly had much greater expectations. The Pohlad's set record payroll at $145MM and there's no reason to do that if the expectation is a repeat of 2021. With a much weaker than anticipated division, the signing of Correa, and the Twins' hot start, I think it's reasonable for fans to also have higher expectations than a losing record. There have also been plenty of articles / comments about whether or not the Twins have set themselves up to have lots of injuries through the signings, trades, drafting and development. Is it really just the luck of the draw or is the front office actively targeting players with injury history in the hopes of getting a discount and the belief those injury prone players are really just unlucky.