bean5302

https://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2022-08-04&team=Twins&dh=0&season=2022 Gray got much better calls than Manoah and not 1 missed strike call was for a ball 4. The strike zone was tight last night and you can see it on the interactive grid.

I'm curious, which Falvey drafted and developed hitters were parlayed into pitchers? Pitcher Steve Hajjar and hitters Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were part of the Mahle trade just now, but I think that's literally about it. Kenta Maeda was for pitcher Brusdar Graterol (Terry Ryan) Chris Paddack was for pitcher Taylor Rogers (Bill Smith) Sonny Gray was for pitcher Chase Petty (Derek Falvey) Michael Fulmer was for pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long (Derek Falvey) Jorge Lopez was for pitchers Cade Povich (Derek Falvey) Yennier Cano (Terry Ryan), and 2 other pitchers. Hitter Austin Martin and pitcher SWR were acquired for the best starter the Twins had developed in 15 years, Jose Berrios (Terry Ryan). Nelson Cruz was flipped for Joe Ryan, but Cruz was a free agent signing and it would have been quite the gamble to predict he would play as well as he did. Big kudos to Falvey for finding that deal, it was great, but it hardly involved his front office doing what they were paid to do. Free agency is part of the job, but not the big part which Derek Falvey was hired to address in my opinion. He was hired to build a sustainable farm system through drafting and development, especially of pitchers.

The Twins scored 3 runs. That's not going to get you a lot of wins, regardless of how much rage we want to direct at the relievers. With 4 innings left after Gray was yanked, Baldelli was going to need to go to some middle relievers and hope for the best for an inning or two. After Pagan got the shaft with an error from Correa and what really was an error for Arraez on a missed catch from 3rd, it quickly became 3-1. Can't fault Pagan for Twins fielders not being able to catch and throw. Megill has been solid this year, but by the time he left the game, what did it matter? The Twins were down 4-2 and the Blue Jays had runners on 1st and 2nd with 1 out. Is that where people think the Twins should bring in stud relievers? No way.

I know I'm late responding to this, but Correa absolutely, totally, undeniably fell into our laps. Without the lockout, and long lockout at that, Correa isn't available for a contract the Twins are willing to make. Correa would have gotten 7-10 years and $250MM+, no doubts. The Twins were never in a million years going to do that or probably even make a call on Correa. With Spring Training reporting 2 weeks earlier, Correa desperately needed a contract fast or he'd be behind the curve and be ill-prepared for the start of the season. Marcus Semien - 11/28/21 - 7yrs $175MM vs. prediction 6yrs $138MM Javier Baez - 11/30/21 - 6yrs $140MM vs. prediction 5yrs $100MM Corey Seager - 12/1/21 - 10yrs $325MM vs. prediction 10yrs $305MM Trevor Story - 3/20/22 - 6yrs $140MM vs. prediction 6yrs $126MM Carlos Correa - 3/23/22 - 3yrs $105MM vs. prediction 10yrs $320MM <--- this does not happen unless a lot of things go wrong for Correa's offseason. A bunch of things had to go in the Twins' favor to get Correa including the need to dump Donaldson's contract which they'd been trying to do since the trade deadline in 2021. The Twins were not clearing payroll for Correa. They were clearing payroll, period, and got ahead of the Yankees to organize a big reshuffle. The Twins were in the hunt for Trevor Story, but they lost out. I suspect Falvey was hoping Story would come in much less expensive than he did and weren't able to keep pace. When Scott Boras called the Twins and offered them a March Christmas present (and probably several other teams, too), it wasn't possible to pass it up. The offer to the Twins from Boras was totally out of the blue and totally unexpected. "We had no fewer than four to five plans [for the offseason] that were running kind of concurrently," general manager Thad Levine said. "We were trying to do some revisionist history and trying to figure out, 'Where was Carlos Correa on the plans?' And I think he was somewhere above Plan A, whatever that represents, if it's Plan A-plus or something that transcended even Plan A." Correa was never on the radar.

I didn't say the strategy works, lol. It's what Falvey has seemingly been banking on, though. It really feels like Falvey has a viewpoint that pitchers are nothing more than mechanics. Gives me hope I could throw a 90mph fastball and an 80mph slider on that fast pitch booth setup outside baseball stadiums with a couple mechanical adjustments lol.

The farm system Derek Falvey inherited had graduated Sano, Polanco, Berrios, Rosario, Kepler and Buxton in the previous 2 years. Compared to what? Gordon (Terry Ryan), Arraez (Terry Ryan), Miranda (Terry Ryan), Larnach, Jeffers, Winder, Ober. Falvey's farm system is pretty empty and he's living off the previous regime's draft picks. Larnach has nearly 500 plate appearances with a wRC+ of 93 and iffy defense at the corner outfield position. Jeffers looks to be a solid backup catcher or maybe an adequate starter. Ober was a late round pick because of injuries and those have followed him throughout his career. Winder has been rebuilt with new mechanics which added massive velocity is seems his shoulder can't handle. Both Ober and Winder look destined for bullpen roles due to durability and neither was a highly rated prospect early on. I'm curious, what stud Twins players are being under-appreciated due to injury right now?

While a #1 prospect may not pan out and a #20 prospect may turn into a star, that's not usually how it goes. Teams typically value players they're looking to trade based on the types of prospects they want. Top 50, Top 100, 3 of the top 10 in a farm system, etc. Draft position (scouted tools) and actual performance generally combine to determine prospect ranking. In the MLB draft, there's a strong correlation between draft position and the likelihood a player makes the big show or becomes a star. It's open to debate how much of the success of top prospects might be helped by the kind of hands on attention and the special opportunities they might receive, the correlation is still there. Basically, prospect rankings are not infallible, but teams often use prospect rankings as player value currency because there is strong correlation there. It's not a shot in the dark.

I feel like the Twins may have been a dark horse for Rocker in an attempt to replace Petty. I don't know why I felt that way, I just really did. I think there are a couple reasons the Twins drafted the way they did. First, I think there's no way they could pass by Brooks Lee. I mean, that was a gift to a club like the Twins who value everything Lee brings to the table. After that, elite pitching is just going to be very hard to find. Second, the front office has definitely had a trend of drafting lower ranked pitchers and trying to transform them into legitimate high end prospects through mechanical changes. They seem to believe there is a opportunity there.

How many playoff victories and World Series appearances do the Twins have under Falvey? If you want to give him a pass for failing to improve the farm system while "adjusting and responding" to the competitive needs of the team, he'd need to show achievements higher than the Twins have seen in the past 20 years. I'd be the first to forgive the state of the farm system if the Twins had some playoff victories or a World Series appearance recently. In fact, the Twins might make that happen this year so it's not like the book is closed or something. I applaud Falvey for recognizing the state of the farm system and finding a way to bring in the talent to plug holes the Twins needed to address to become a legitimate playoff caliber team this year. But there need to be results along with the adjustments.

Falvey's drafts have come in mixed levels. 2017 (#1 overall), 2022 (#8 overall). 2019 (#13 overall), 2018 (#20 overall), 2021 (#26 overall). Plus the Twins had a couple supplemental first round picks in there. Overall, I feel the Twins have drafted higher than average during Falvey's reign so I don't think that really factors much into this. Brooks Lee is a top 100 prospect right now. BR has him at #49 and Fangraphs all the way up at #23, but Fangraphs writeup is admittedly rosy in regard to Lee sticking at SS. Prielipp doesn't even budge the farm. He was considered a very late 1st rounder to mid 2nd round pick and he's not going to be on anybody's top 100 lists. While he has great potential, he's a nothingburger for a farm system.

Speaking of Berrios... he's straightening things out in Toronto. Over his last 6 starts, Berrios has been very good. 10.5 K/9, 1.75 BB/9, 3.00 ERA, 3.26 FIP, 3.02 xFIP even with the .319 BABIP.

I think Correa feels like he's interested in the player management and coaching aspects of the game along with the theory and evolution. I'm not sure if he'd actually be more interested in a GM job (like Jeter) than a manager.

Jack Morris wasn't a great post-season pitcher. I'd choose somebody good instead.

I'd take Gray over Mahle for game 1 right now, but it may well be up to whether or not 1. The Twins make the playoffs. 2. Which arm is ready 3. Who is injured

Nice writeup. I'm more bullish on Woods-Richardson and Wallner and a little less so on Miller, but it feels like the Twins system is now a "depth" system where differences between #5 and #15 can be negligible.

I think the Twins got a great deal here. I'm sure the Reds were fielding other offers for Mahle so that points to how well valued Steer, Encarnation-Strand and Hajjar were outside the organization. It does feel like we're working hard to build the Reds into a monster farm system at this point, haha. Honestly, I can't do anything other than grade this an "A" Regardless of whether or not Mahle is the ultra-stud some fans on the site think he will be or just a very solid mid/upper rotation arm, the Twins didn't give up a ton here to get him (conventionally speaking).

This year, the Twins have only drawn an average of 21k per game. That's only 5k per game better than last year when the Twins reported an operating income of $10MM with $44MM of reported gate revenue. If gate revenues remain the same per attendee, and other revenues remain the same, the Twins' operating income will be ($15MM) this year as payroll has risen by $25MM. All that problem goes away with a deep playoff run, though. Have to agree lots depends on how the season plays out.

Jim Pohlad made the decision to hire Derek Falvey 6 years ago after a disappointing 2016 season where expectations were raised based on improvements seen in 2015. The primary decision to choose Falvey was modernizing the player development system with analytics so the Twins' farm system could sustain competitive play long term operating like a smaller market team. The biggest issue the Twins had was their utter failure to develop front line starters. Jose Berrios, despite his stellar numbers in the minors, had been eaten alive by MLB hitters and the farm system was looking a bit rough. Naturally, having graduated Sano, Buxton, Kepler, and Berrios in the last two years, that's going to see a farm system take a beating. Falvey went into 2017's playoffs with a virtually identical team as the Twins fielded in 2016, and again in 2019 and 2020. The winning tradition was restored! Except Falvey did it all with a roster largely created from the drafts and signings of Bill Smith and Terry Ryan. Falvey had major hits... but most of the hits eventually turned into misses. Ervin Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Jason Castro all ended their time with the Twins with a whimper, but this article is really about the sustainability factor. That's why Falvey was hired. Not for free agent signings. For a sustainable, productive draft and development system built from analytics and cutting edge baseball knowledge. I graded Falvey's top 3 rounds of drafting a couple months ago, and the situation has changed quite a bit, but again, I'm interested in the sustainability of the team. What do the Twins have in the system to fill the enormous holes on the roster coming up? Again, the idea was not that Falvey constructs a roster out of free agents when he was hired. What did the system look like when Falvey started? #1 - Nick Gordon* #2 - Tyler Jay #3 - Fernando Romero* #4 - Alex Kirilloff* #5 - Stephen Gonsalves* #6 - Wander Javier #7 - Kohl Stewart* #8 - Adalberto Mejia* #9 - Ben Rortvedt* #10 - Zach Granite* *7 of those players made significant appearances at the MLB level, and in general, they were viewed pretty highly at the time. The Twins' farm system was right in the middle. So what about today? There isn't much there. MLB's top prospects set for the Twins are: #1 Lewis (a23)- Undoubtedly the only elite prospect in the Twins system. He could be a star. He's also younger than Martin or Balazovic... as hard as that is to believe. Lewis torched AAA and proceeded to shine bright in a handful of plate appearances at the MLB level. With a character as brilliant as his athleticism, the sky is the limit... if he can stay on the field and prove his performance wasn't a SSS fluke. #2 Martin (a23) - Has seen his stock take a real beating this year. He went from a consensus top 50 prospect to falling well out of the top 100 on the failure to develop power and a lower batting average coupled with embarrassing defense. There was improvement in Martin's defense at SS with the error rate trending towards almost acceptable, but Martin's suffered an injured elbow diving for a ball at the beginning of July. It wasn't expected to be a big deal, but here we are a month later and he still hasn't played while (stop me if you've heard this one) the Twins hadn't been able to diagnose the issue at least as of mid July... #3 Balazovic (a23) - If Martin's stock had a silver lining, it's Balazovic's stock. It's not possible to understate how disastrous his performance has been this year. He wouldn't even be ranked on a good farm system top 15 at this point. While there is the hope Balazovic's struggles are related to injury, the Twins don't seem to feel like the injury is an issue. They keep sending him out, Balazovic continues to get consistently destroyed. #4 Woods-Richardson (a21) - He had another great start to the season, but he started struggling with control like last year leading to a rocketing WHIP and lots of runs. Then, there was a lengthy IL trip for COVID. Woods-Richardson probably moves to my #2 prospect in the Twins system at this point with overall impressive strike out rates, a great 4 pitch combo and stretches where he dominates. There's still a lot of potential. #5 Matt Canterino - (a24) - Bordering on non-prospect age, Canterino is putting up impressive K rates with equally depressing BB rates in AA. He's working his way back from yet another elbow strain in the Florida Complex league where he was knocked around in his latest 1 inning appearance. He's certainly not a top 10 prospect in a good farm system and hasn't pitched into the 5 inning this year. #6 Noah Miller (a19) - The only remaining draft pick from the first 3 rounds of 2021's draft now that Petty, Povich and Hajjar have all been moved, Miller is holding his own at the plate in Ft. Myers while playing very good defense. He's not an elite prospect at this point, but there's a chance Miller can improve his contact skills as he was drafted out of high school. Right now, Miller looks passive at the plate with a 15% walk and 25% strikeout rate more associated with power hitters, but Miller's power tool is scouted as pretty modest and he hasn't shown any of it this year. #7 Matt Wallner (a24) - Wallner was racing up the prospect lists as a full fledged supernova-style bright spot in the Twins' system. Since his promotion to AAA, Wallner has gone stone cold with a .116/.224/.140 triple slash. That said, it's just 49 plate appearances. Please, please let his swing return to crush the opponent pitchers to end the season. #8 Misael Urbina (a20) - A speedy center fielder international prospect signed out of Venezuela, Urbina had a really great year in Ft. Myers last season. Unfortunately, he missed half this year due to visa issues. Currently getting his legs under him back in rookie ball, Urbina's hoping to salvage the season. #9 Brayan Medina (a19) - Came over in the Rogers/Rooker trade for Paddack/Pagan as a toss in. It speaks volumes when the Padres' PTBNL is in your top 10... In rookie ball, Medina has walked a ton of batters while holding the hits to a reasonable number with the help of a .265 BABIP and paltry 5.0% HR/FB rate. He's not in a good farm's top 20, possibly not top 30. #10 Ronny Henriquez (a22) - The extra player received as part of the Garver trade to the Rangers, Henriquez has struggled to keep batters off the base paths in AAA. Ronny was ranked as the Rangers #15 prospect due to his ability to generate strikeouts and limit the free pass last year in AA. He's probably taken a step back this year as the walk rate has increased by 50% at AAA and batters have been able to generate hits at will leading to his 1.52 WHIP and very rough 5.71 ERA. Also, the Twins have not really been limiting pitches much with Henriquez allowing him to throw up to 92... but he's rarely been able to finish 5 innings. That said, Henriquez has been able to keep a solid K% (though certainly not elite for MiLB), the .352 BABIP is way too high and the walk rate still isn't terrible by any means. So there's still some potential. On a good farm, Henriquez is probably borderline top 20, helped by his age. I'd argue the farm is currently a big step back from the position it was in back at the start of 2017, where it was middle of the pack. Barring some real turnarounds, I expect the Twins to grade out bottom 5. So where does that leave Falvey? He was brought in to rebuild the farm system so it would produce high value prospects and especially stock the rotation with high value, inexpensive cost controlled rotation arms the Twins could depend on for several years. While the farm has essentially produced 2 years of Sonny Gray, he's not cheap at $12MM per year and 2 years is hardly a long time. We also used the farm to pick up Tyler Mahle for 1.5 years, but he's also not going to be cheap next year, and certainly not long term. Maybe $12MM? The one glowing example in terms of expense and control is honestly Kenta Maeda. We got 4 years of a cheap, high value rotation arm from moving Brusdar Graterol. That said, I'm not sure the agreed upon strategy was to trade all the talent in the MiLB system for a couple years of productive MLB starters. That's not sustainable and it honestly hasn't been cheap overall. Instead, the Twins have typically felt like a directionless Frankenstein monster to me, pieced together each offseason in the hopes the pieces all gel and what comes out is a lightning strike with the scream "It's ALIVE!!" to begin a playoff season. Of course, winning solves everything. If the Twins win the World Series or even win a single playoff series, all will likely be forgotten. Every step short of that, though, has to heat up the seat under Falvey, especially given Falvey stretched the Twins' budget to $138MM (and beyond with recent trades) this year. Hard to believe the Twins turn a profit based on the attendance levels I saw and the Pohlads do not run this team as a hobby.

Last year he was in high school... this year he was pitching so well the Reds promoted him to A+ ball with a month and a half left on the season. That's serious fast tracking and it doesn't happen if the Reds aren't very, very impressed with what they saw. Twins "stud" Matt Canterino was being fawned over in A+ at age 23 and in his 3rd professional season after drafting him out of college, in between IL stints. Petty is 19, in his 2nd season and out of high school. Petty's ceiling was always Ace (as good as Gray used to be when he was young). Very high risk Petty would not be able to develop his changeup into a plus offering required for that, but last year in his exposure to hitters at the complex, the reports were glowing. Petty looked far more like a pitcher than many people expected. He was not a thrower. Better control than expected. Changeup and slider better than expected. The only other big concern was Petty's ability to remain healthy, which he has so far. Considering the Twins had, literally, nothing they could count on in the minors who looked like they had Ace potential, I was not happy with this trade. It's also worth noting the Reds took Chase Petty for Sonny Gray. That should tell you a lot about how the Reds saw Petty's value. Of the 125 pitchers with 70 innings or more this year, Gray has produced the 53rd highest fWAR. Meaning, he's provided the value of a very good #3, relative to his peers. Gray's actual production per inning pitched is certainly higher than that; however, he's been a pitcher who's struggled with injuries for most of the past decade. Now that he's in decline, his velocity is dropping and his metrics are fading. Gray's also being paid $12MM per year with the Twins having control only one more season. Gray provides a lot of surplus value at $12MM year at this point, and I don't deny that. I just would have rather parted with something other than Petty to get him.

Always a tough call on whether or not a non-Twins player should receive a Twins reward. Encarnation-Strand did all his work for the Twins so in that way, he earned it. Looking over the MLB.com top prospects list for the Twins today was a bit depressing.

Got it. Act of God. Nobody has responsibility for multi-million dollar assets. Sometimes things just don't work. What can you do?Somehow, I just don't think that perspective flies in big business.

Just saw Chase Petty was promoted to A+. I really do hate that trade.

Kennys Vargas got inducted into the HoF??????

I'm not saying the Twins always have to get it right, but they've got a multi-million dollar asset and they've failed to diagnose the problem with it. It doesn't really matter who's fault it is specifically, but it's basically either Alex Kirilloff's or the organization's, isn't it?

They don't really know why he's still having wrist pain after more than a year. I think it's fair to consider that a failure of the Twins medical/training staff to get a good diagnosis.