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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    The "untouchables" is an interesting concept. It means the team is so dependent on those players, they cannot be traded to improve the current team. To me, Jenkins is untouchable because his value has utterly tanked due to injury and performance in Single A ball this year. His ETA is 2026 at the earliest, but probably no significant play time until 2027. Brooks Lee, I'd be happy to trade if another team believed in him to the point he brought back part of a blockbuster deal, but people around here dramatically overvalue him. SSSS, but he certainly hasn't started hot in AAA, which is a level he couldn't hold his own at last year, either. He's a fringy shortstop with limited athleticism, without a ton of game power, who's proven so far to be weak as a RHB. Teams aren't falling over themselves to get a player like that in general. His draft position, and quick rise in the minors facilitated his spike in value... the same way Austin Martin rose up ranks right away. I'd really hate for the Twins to deal Rodriguez because there's a screaming loud, long term need for an outfielder who projects as a starter who can cover CF. Further down the list, there aren't any guys who could front line a truly high value acquisition.
  2. bean5302
    I don't see how pipelines would include veteran players. Ryan and Ober are both arb eligible next year so their team control is already starting to tick down. Festa's scuffling in AAA again this year with a 4.45 ERA over his past 7 starts with 3 of those not even getting through 5 frames. That doesn't project well. Zebby Matthews could be something with Andrew Morris climbing the ladder into a mid ranged prospect. It's been 7.5 years for Falvey to show his MiLB development team can produce starters, and Ober is the sole success story with SWR potentially paying off now, too. Falvey's on a very hot seat this year. He'll either see the Twins push into the playoffs or he'll be finding a new job.
  3. bean5302
    Farmer is getting highly sporadic plate appearances, which is the worst thing for a guy trying to stabilize confidence or play at the plate. Also consider his xwOBA of .281 (still not great) is significantly higher than actual of .248. Farmer's only had 39 plate appearances in the past 35 days and is averaging less than 2 plate appearances per game played using the Baldelli Ultra Platoon method.
  4. bean5302
    I'm not sure Lewis wouldn't move to SS if Correa was hurt, but I agree, Lee is too far down the depth chart to get a call up with a single injury.
  5. bean5302
    That's basically what this article is speculating. Pitch framing has gone away because Jeffers isn't trying to frame pitches anymore, he's setting pitchers up with an initial reference point of a full on meatball, and the pitcher is able to adjust based on that. This is possible because of the PitchCom system where the following is relayed to the pitcher after the last pitch "pitch".... "location" i.e. "slider... low and away" so the catcher doesn't need to position their glove where they'd like the actual pitch. Instead, by placing their glove at a center-center reference point, the pitcher can work off that reference to throw more strikes. It doesn't seem viable to me. I'm not a pitcher, but regardless of the sport, you keep your eyes fixated on a location as much as possible to maximize your chances of hitting that location. That makes me believe it's not likely this is actually happening a lot with a pitcher if that pitcher who is showing good control during the game. Pitchers are definitely going to miss their spots more with the speculated method. They'll throw more strikes, and more meatballs that'll end up in the seats and I'd much rather have a ball or two called than a home run allowed. Also, Vazquez has high framing numbers while Jeffers is poor in the category so lack of consistency with the catchers means this isn't likely a "Twins approach." Also, pitch framing often bounces around from year to year so I don't think it's a reliable or particularly valuable metric.
  6. bean5302
    I'm hoping he just jammed it, and the team had seen enough of him trying to play through it without a few days off. If he's only out for a week or two, it'll still give him plenty of time to get close to 100 plate appearances in at AAA before the deadline so the Twins could make a decision on whether or not he's ready for the big show. The question about Rodriguez is kinda the same as it was. Nobody is going to walk 25% of the time at MLB, so the 10% of the walks he's getting right now... will those become K's or batted balls? If they all become K's, he's probably not a viable MLB player. If they all become batted balls, he could be excellent, but there's probably a mix in there somewhere. Just my thoughts on it!
  7. bean5302
    Personally, I'd probably promote Emmanuel Rodriguez today to AAA and have him play CF while DaShawn Keirsey is on the IL. Evaluate Rodriguez's performance at AAA for the next month and a half and decide whether he's potentially ready for the big show.
  8. bean5302
    Luis Robert's probably worth AFV of $50MM with a salary of $20MM through 2025 at the trade deadline, including the Twins eating $5MM of current year salary. So that nets out at a Surplus value of $30MM. The package you proposed doesn't get it done considering Gonzalez's apparently serious back strain. He hasn't played in a month and a half and isn't close to returning. I think Emmanuel Rodriguez + Marco Raya is probably the ask for Robert, provided he's back and hitting well, TBH. Before you balk at the price tag, consider the White Sox don't have to move him right now as they have 3.5yrs of team control over him, and there will be other teams in the mix.
  9. bean5302
    I think Sano will find a spot, but I also think there's probably a lot of bad blood between Sano and the Twins. Specifically, the Twins towards Sano.
  10. bean5302
    The budget has been spent? News to me that Joe Pohlad came out and announced the Twins have no budget for the deadline. I'd speculate the Twins would be willing to take on another $5-10MM of salary if they're in a good position at the deadline, especially after cutting payroll back as much as they did despite turning a profit last year.
  11. bean5302
    Just like the new logo in general, lol. The good 'ol North Star, the one used specifically by maritime navigators... "Mariners" At least the City Connect jerseys feature MN and not just "M" Can't say I care for the "ripple" effect as it just looks like stripes which aren't even consistent in their direction. Maybe making it look like it was a single piece of fabric rather than scraps sewn together was too expensive?
  12. bean5302
    The jersey looks cheap and piecemeal, the way the "ripple" changes directions at the jersey sewing points. Something I would have done with a sewing machine as a kid in Home Economics. There are some city connect jersey's I really like, but a lot I don't. This is definitely a "don't like."
  13. bean5302
    You're right. An SP1 wouldn't make the Twins substantially worse as a team so they'd still be better than the extreme luck fueled Guardians. As far as on par with the best teams in baseball, probably not, but the 1987 Twins had the 9th best record in baseball. They were an average team with only a couple real good pieces. You have to make the playoffs before you can win playoff games. Now, what would an SP1 cost? That depends on team control, contact AAV and how they're pitching up to the deadline point. If Blake Snell were to rebound and have a great 5-8 start history before the deadline while being healthy, what would he cost? Probably not a ton. He'd be viewed as a potential rental with a big negative in the player option. If the Diamondbacks are out of it, Zac Gallen would require a lot more prospect capital. He's cheap this year and he'll be under market value next year. Probably 1 top 3 prospect, plus another 1 of our top 5s, plus 2 more of our top 10s. But, Falvey will do this. His job is on the line as his contract is over this year, and Joe Pohlad made it clear the team's expectations have shifted from making the playoffs/winning the division to advancing in the playoffs.
  14. bean5302
    You're looking at Brooks Lee's rehab assignment Ft. Myers Mighty Mussels stats... He's actually .214/.313/.214 OPS .527 wRC+ 48 in AAA. Wallner's coming around, though, and it's just a matter of time before Kirilloff wears out his welcome on the 26 man. Not a hard swap to make.
  15. bean5302
    Trollin' Trollin' Trollin, wabene man is trollin'... along!
  16. bean5302
    Why are you bringing up pitching when the Twins scored 0 runs?
  17. bean5302
    Before we get too excited about Miller, he's on a repeat at A+ level in his 3rd full season in the minors with a .255/.340/.372 OPS .712 line which is good for a basically league average wRC+ 104. It's a small step forward at the plate, but he's going to need to add some game power or start hitting more line drives. He's been one of the slickest fielding shortstops in the minors, if not the outright best, so he's not going to need a plus bat to make it at the MLB level, but he's still not projectable. The guy we got for Noah Miller is 20 year old shortstop Rayne Doncon, who was just promoted to A+ level after he hit .283/.374/.464 OPS .838 wRC+ 138 in Ft. Myers. He's been ice cold in Cedar Rapids so far in 65 plate appearances, but his K rate hasn't jumped so a lot of the ice cold is probably luck.
  18. bean5302
    Glad to see Jackson having a good time out there, but he's 36. Now that he's off the roster, he's basically auditioning for next season, a trade deadline opportunity or an injury replacement opportunity.
  19. bean5302
    I'm advocating Baldelli be fired not for this specific game. It's the season. It's the pattern. It was the pattern last season as well. It's the fact I don't believe Baldelli gets the best from his team or players.
  20. bean5302
    2021 restructure eliminated a league and changed technical terminology, but the slang remains. Class A Advanced became High A (abbreviated A+) Low A became Single A (abbreviated A) (A-) was short season A ball, but not every team had a short season A ball affiliate.
  21. bean5302
    Where do you get the leap to Duran here? The Twins scored 0 runs. Duran could have been perfect, and the Twins still lose 1-0. I don't care about what the pitchers do in a loss if the Twins score 0-2 runs in the same way I don't care what the hitters do in a loss if the Twins pitching staff gives up 7+ runs. Baldelli sets the lineup. Baldelli chooses the platoons. Baldelli chooses to "rest" players all the time. Baldelli chooses the pinch hitters. Firing the manager does a couple things. It can light a fire under the players, and it sends the message the performance won't be tolerated. If the manager doesn't matter, then the manager adds no value to the team and firing him doesn't matter, anyway so why the concern?
  22. bean5302
    GM's always throw the manager under the bus to save themselves first.
  23. bean5302
    What data do you use, and where does it come from? MLB releases detailed data for every pitch of every game. Each morning, my program grabs all of this pitch by pitch data from the previous day’s contests. Within the data, each pitch is assigned 89 attributes, from the pitcher's release position to the pitch’s horizontal acceleration. We care about 5 of those 89 values. Two are the pitch’s horizontal (plate_x) and vertical (plate_z) position as it crosses the plate. Two are measures of the top and the bottom of the strike zone (sz_bot and sz_top), values that reflect the size of the zone once adjusted for batter height and stance. Finally, we use the resulting call of the pitch. In conjunction, these 5 values can tell us whether a pitch was a strike or a ball, and whether or not it was called correctly. https://umpscorecards.com/info/
  24. bean5302
    Players only meeting? No. Ownership meeting with Falvey and Baldelli where Baldelli packs his bags? Yes.
  25. bean5302
    Always nice to make an opposing opener who hasn't been able to throw strikes, and #5 rotation/fringe AAAA guy look like a Cy Young candidate.
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