Matthew Lenz

Should Paul Skenes become available, he would net an unprecedented return of the likes that Major League Baseball has ever seen. What would it take for the Minnesota Twins to land the generational talent? View full video

Baseball America released their June top 100 prospect rankings and it doesn't come as a surprise to see one name fall. While Luke Keaschall and Emmanuel Rodriguez saw their stocks jump two spots, Walker Jenkins saw his fall two spots despite two people ahead of him in the May rankings graduate. It's not surprising to see Jenkins drop on the list, going from #11 in May to #13 in June, as he's been out for a majority of the season. He just returned on June 3rd in the Florida Complex League. A good month could see him back in the top 10 for the July Update. On the other hand, Rodriguez has been his typical "on-base machine" self with the St. Paul Saints this year carrying a .400 OBP. Along with a high walk rate, he has a high strikeout rate due to his patient plate approach. He's annually towards the bottom of the Minor League leaderboard in swing and contact rates. More than most prospects, Rodriguez is a massive wild card as to whether the prospect pedigree will turn into production at the big-league level. Finally, Keaschall was moved to the 60-day IL and is expected to be out for the foreseeable future although should return this season. View full rumor

Tanner Schobel, the Minnesota Twins second round pick from the 2022 draft, was promoted to Triple-A St. Paul on Wednesday, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Schobel (who has split time at second, third, and shortstop) has a slash line of .292/.372/.465 with seven home runs in 234 plate appearances. His plate discipline has been extremely impressive with a low 14.1% strikeout rate and a high 10.7% walk rate. He's add seven stolen bases to his stat line to boot. Baseball America has the 24-year-old utility man as the Twins eighth rated prospect with mostly average to above-average tools, although below average power. View Schobel's scouting report here: Do you think there is any chance we see Schobel with the Twins in 2025? Are you planning on seeing him in-person at CHS Field? Join the conversation in the comments! View full rumor

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images After two more walkoff losses to the Cleveland Guardians last week, the Minnesota Twins are 59-76 against their divisional foe since Derek Falvey joined the organization ahead of the 2017 season. In the last two years alone, the Twins are 4-13 with five walkoff losses (and seven others by two runs or less) against Cleveland. Despite the lopsided win-loss record, these matchups are traditionally close and low scoring, with an average score of 3.6-3.2 in favor of the Guardians. It should be no surprise that Falvey, the former architect of the Guardians’ pitching pipeline, has built a similarly strong pitching prospect group for the Twins. On the other hand, like the Guardians', the Twins' offense has been mediocre for much of Falvey’s tenure, frequently coming up short to support strong pitching performances. While the Guardians have been competitive for the last decade, it’s resulted in just one American League pennant. That, paired with the Twins' inability to beat them, raises the question: is this really the blueprint the organization should be following? In one sense, the answer is clearly “yes.” While winning the World Series is always the goal, creating a sustainable product that can compete each year is a solid secondary objective. After all, the 1987 and 1991 Twins are examples of the premise that if you can get into the playoffs, anything can happen. However, as the 2000s Twins learned, continually making it to October and coming up short comes with (arguably) more frustration from fans than the times when the club hasn't been competitive. Moreover, expectations of improvement or taking the figurative “next step” come with the territory of being a consistently competitive team. That's something that the Guardians haven't been able to accomplish in their decade-long run, much as the Twins have struggled to. What makes it worse, though, is that the Twins seem to be the lite version of the Guardians—or, as John Bonnes said on the Common Man Dan Cole’s KFAN radio show on Friday, “the Twins aren't as good at being Cleveland as Cleveland is.” Not only did the pitching pipeline take a while to develop, but the Twins don't appear to have the hitting to convert all that pitching into wins. More specifically, they don't have the timely hitting required to consistently win. Unlike Cleveland, the Twins’ OPS with runners in scoring position is in the bottom half of the league since the start of last season. Over the same timeframe, the Twins have a sub-.500 record in one-run games, and in extra-inning games. This has all culminated in a team that is 15-20 this season. This has all culminated in a team that has one of the best rotations and bullpens in baseball, yet can't consistently win baseball games. This has all culminated in a team that looks lifeless at the plate and in the field. While the Guardians model has led to a sustainable product, it hasn't been enough to get over the hump. Whether it's a good model for the Twins to follow is surely up for debate. One thing that isn't up for debate is that the Twins are the lite version of the Guardians right now. View full article

Image courtesy of Varland: © David Richard-Imagn Images Duran: © Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images Jax: © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images After a hope-infusing series-opening win Monday night, the Twins lost in walkoff fashion in the second game of their four-game set against the Cleveland Guardians Tuesday. After five solid innings from Chris Paddack, Rocco Baldelli used Brock Stewart in the sixth, then went with his two highest-leverage relievers in the seventh and eighth. Griffin Jax relieved Stewart, and was then relieved by Jhoan Duran. This led to Louis Varland getting his first ninth-inning opportunity of the season and his second career appearance in a high-leverage ninth frame. While it’s not usual for Jax to pitch in the seventh or Durán to pitch the eighth, it's usually under different circumstances. Jax is often the first high-leverage reliever out of the bullpen, whether that be in the seventh or eighth innings. However, there have also been games wherein he's been deployed after Duran, as the closer. So what made Tuesday’s game different? Baldelli deployed four righties from the bullpen, so that mutes any discussion of a potential righty/lefty matchup dynamic. Jax was brought in to face the 6-7-8 hitters in the Guardians lineup, which is not a lineup pocket that typically requires a high-leverage reliever. However, Jhonkensy Noel is a masher who has struggled with sinkers and sweepers early on in his career—two offerings that have been effective for Jax. The next two hitters, Daniel Schneeman and Bo Naylor, don't have obvious flaws that would point toward Jax getting the seventh. It's my opinion that Jax was specifically brought in to get the slugger Noel out in a tie game, when a moonshot would give the Guardians a lead. Having given up a double to Schneeman, Jax struck out Angel Martínez in the 9-hole, leaving the top of the order to lead off the eighth inning. That makes it a lot easier to understand why Duran was brought in for the top of the eighth. The flamethrower made easy work of the would-be table setters, inducing a groundout and striking out two hitters on just 13 pitches. After a low-stress inning, you might have thought Baldelli would send him back out for the ninth. However, Duran has just two multi-inning relief appearances since June of 2023. Right or wrong, it's generally not something Baldelli has done with the 27-year-old. Heading into the ninth, Baldelli had five pitchers in the bullpen—though Justin Topa and Jorge Alcala may have been unavailable, given their workload in the days leading up to Tuesday. Still, beyond them, he had Varland, Danny Coulombe, and Cole Sands at his disposal to face the heart of the Guardians lineup: José Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo, and Carlos Santana. What makes this portion of the lineup tough is that Manzardo, a left-handed hitter with non-traditional splits, is protected by switch-hitters in front of and behind him. Additionally, both Ramírez and Santana are productive hitters from both sides of the plate, making the handedness question moot. Manzardo’s success against southpaws in 33 career at-bats could maybe explain why Coulombe was left in the pen. That leaves us with Sands and Varland. While Sands arguably has the stronger track record as a reliever, to this point in the season, Varland has looked like the better pitcher—both on the surface and under the hood. Sands hasn’t quite found his 2024 self in the first month of 2025. Thus, by process of elimination, Varland got the ninth. However, that evades the real question: Why go Jax in the seventh, instead of Varland? This brings us back to Noel. While much of his swing decisions and batted-ball data leave more to be desired, there's no arguing his power potential. He’s currently in the 98th percentile in bat speed and well above average in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, opponents put the ball in the air against Varland nearly two-thirds of the time and he currently is one of the worst pitchers in the league in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. Varland also doesn't have that lateral movement on his breaking ball that made Jax a good candidate to get out Noel. Hindsight being 20/20, it's easy to criticize the move by Baldelli. The game ended when Manzardo took Varland deep, in a situation when one would normally find Jax or Duran on the mound. However, if my conjectures above are correct, I think this is a matter of a good process that led to bad results. That's more than can be said for Varland’s middle-middle changeup, which was launched 363 feet over the right-field fence. What are your thoughts on Baldelli’s bullpen usage on Tuesday night? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

It's a great time to be a Minnesota sports fan. The Lynx recently made it to the WNBA finals, the Vikings had a 14-3 regular season, the Timberwolves are in the midst of their second consecutive playoff run, and the Wild are enjoying their fifth trip to the postseason in six years. Then… well, then there's the Twins. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Dear Future Minnesota Twins Owner, It's with great pleasure we welcome you to the Twin Cities. We couldn't be more excited for new ownership around these parts. We’re not sure if you heard, but our last ownership group alienated us, right after the team ended the longest playoff losing streak in North American professional sports history. The expression “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out” would be what we call “Minnesota Nice” if uttered toward a member of the Pohlad family. While being passive-aggressive is in our nature, you should know we’re anything but that when it comes to our professional sports teams. We desperately hope that you are here to invest in the franchise. One thing about our fan base is that, when our teams show out, we show up. No questions asked. While we don't have the glamor of cities like New York or Los Angeles or the rich sports history of cities like Boston or Chicago, we come out in droves when we know our teams care. Consult your wealthy friends who own teams in the NBA or NFL. It's famously unenjoyable to play a road playoff game here. Unfortunately, when it comes to the Twins, that feeling has been missing for the past two seasons. We hope you're here to change that. If you need more convincing, let me take you through an anecdotal tour of the town. Minnesota Timberwolves Have the Timberwolves been one of the worst NBA franchises in the league since their inception? Sure have. Regardless, do we pack Target Center for the playoffs and create one of the most raucous environments in the league? Sure do. For years, the Timberwolves weren't just the laughingstock of the NBA. but really of all professional sports. When Kevin Garnett was traded away in 2006-2007, it took an entire decade for them to make it back to the playoffs. Eight coaches later and with one of the best up-and-coming teams in the NBA, we finished in the top 10 in total attendance in the most recent season. Moreover, Game 4 against the Los Angeles Lakers drew over seven million viewers—the second-largest Round 1, game 4 audience ESPN has ever seen. That's all while being the self-proclaimed “State of Hockey” and competing with the Minnesota Wild. Minnesota Wild Speaking of attendance figures, guess which fan base led the NHL in capacity percentage for the most recent season. Yep, it was us, at 102.7%—and the number has jumped to 106.9% during the playoffs. We don't even need to be guaranteed a seat in the arena to show up for our teams. While the Wild have been a little easier to root for throughout their tenure, we continue to pack the Xcel Energy Center despite six first-round exits in the previous nine seasons. Minnesota Vikings The Vikings have long been the most popular team in town. Once they earned the moniker “Purple People Eaters”, fans have continuously packed first Met Stadium, then the Metrodome, and now U.S. Bank Stadium. Arguably more than any other local franchise, the Vikings have given us heartbreak after heartbreak, going 0-4 in Super Bowl appearances and suffering multiple tragic playoff exits. Despite this, we fill the tailgate lots hours before kickoff, and more than 74,000 of us filter into “The Bank” proclaiming “this is our season”. However, that's not unique to game days. Recently, thousands of fans attended the Vikings Draft Party in anticipation of the announcement of the team’s most recent first-round pick—even though the team was picking 24th. Minnesota Lynx Unlike the professional teams above, the Lynx have triumphed more than they've tumbled. The three-time WNBA champions have given fans plenty of reason to support the team over the last decade and, as always, we’ve shown out. The crowds for the team's latest, not-quite-title-winning charge to the Finals were large and rowdy. That brings us back to the Minnesota Twins and the conclusion of this letter. Dating back 25 years, when the team was almost contracted, fans have supported this club. Even when times were tough for the majority of the 2010s, we typically finished in the middle third of MLB teams in average attendance. However, when things were good, we were great. There's no better sight than 40,000-plus Minnesotans waving their Homer Hankies ahead of a playoff matchup. If you give us a reason to support this team, we will make it well worth your investment. Be smarter than your predecessors have been. Sincerely, A disgruntled but passionate Twins fan View full article

Despite three solid starts, Minnesota Twins starter David Festa was sent back to Triple-A St. Paul this week. A move was necessary to make room for returning ace Pablo López, but why did the club choose to demote Festa over Simeon Woods Richardson? Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images In his three starts in April, David Festa carried a 3.69 FIP and a 15.5 difference between his strikeout and walk rates (K-BB%) across 13 innings. In a limited sample, opposing hitters batted .348 (with a .438 slugging percentage) against Festa’s 95-mph fastball, but his changeup was very effective. Primarily used against lefties, opponents didn't get a single hit against the offering, and its Run Value (RV) currently ranks in the 89th percentile of all offspeed pitches for qualified pitchers. In each of his starts, Festa found himself in the top 2 of Thomas Nestico’s daily tjStuff+ leaderboard. Technically, he has four plus pitches—although one of them, his sinker, is essentially a show-me pitch. Regardless, Festa found himself as the odd man out when Pablo López returned from a hamstring injury Friday. Simeon Woods Richardson, who keeps his rotation spot (for now), has been a similarly productive pitcher. Across 24 ⅓ innings in four appearances, the 25-year-old has a 4.04 FIP and an 18.7 K-BB%. The righthander's fastball, breaking ball, and offspeed offerings fall in the 54th, 27th, and 3rd percentile, respectively, of all qualified pitchers in baseball. While the surface stats appear to be getting the job done, the under-the-hood metrics suggest that Festa has been the better pitcher. Projecting into the future, Festa generally has the higher ceiling of the two starters. So why was Woods Richardson given the spot over Festa? The answer clearly points to factors outside of productivity and effectiveness. As a rookie, Woods Richardson ended up being one of the Twin' most reliable arms for the first five months of the season. Having reached a career high in innings pitched, he ran out of gas in September. That (combined with the team's collapse) really overshadowed just how good he was. While he should be better prepared to reach and surpass that number in his second year in the big leagues, keeping Festa (and Zebby Matthews) fresher for the end of the season is insurance if Woods Richardson eventually wilts again. In his three starts, Festa averaged under 75 pitches per start, though he did throw 80 pitches in his second start with the St. Paul Saints on April 4th. It's likely that the Twins are managing his pitch and innings count to be ready for a bigger role on the big-league club later in the season. That's much easier, and less is at stake, if he's in St. Paul rather than Minneapolis. However, that's not the only benefit to sending him down. Believe it or not, Woods Richardson is actually younger than Festa, and has just one option remaining despite less than two years of service time accrued. This is significant for a couple of reasons: If the Twins use that option this year and he spends two months in St. Paul, they will get an extra year of team control. If the Twins retain that option ahead of next season, there is less pressure to establish his role for next season. Expanding on the latter, if Woods Richardson enters camp next year without options, the Twins will need to quickly determine whether his role for the season is as a starter or reliever. While Woods Richardson’s current profile limits his ceiling, his productivity suggests that maybe the Twins can get more out of him with more time. It's possible that Woods Richardson is a late bloomer and, obviously, the Twins want to be the beneficiaries if he does in fact bloom. Again, he's only 25 years old, so to suggest that what we've seen is the best we’re going to get would be short-sighted. In short, you don't have to worry about Festa (or Matthews), who currently has all three options remaining (and will have two left even come 2026), whereas you definitely need to keep that in consideration with Woods Richardson. While it can be frustrating for the Twins not to roster their top 26 players right now, the difference in production (to this point) has been negligible and doesn't justify sacrificing the bigger picture. There is more value in playing the service time/option game than there is in keeping Festa in the major-league rotation in April. Moreover, it allows the Twins to keep him fresh when injury strikes or someone falters later in the season. Keeping all factors in mind, how would you handle the Twins rotation? Should Festa and/or Matthews be in the big leagues? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Twins have announced a new partnership with locally based OVO LASIK + Lens. The news comes on the heels of a slow start to the season. Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images The Twins brought in former rotation ace Tommy Milone, who received LASIK during his career, as a special consultant for the partnership. It's been reported that Milone held a team building event at OVO LASIK’s St. Louis Park office where players were given the opportunity to receive services from the company’s founder and medical director Dr. Mark Lobanoff. Dr. Lobanoff, a longtime Twins fan, was excited about the partnership and the impact it might have on the teams on field performance. “This is a really exciting time for our company”, said Dr. Lobanoff, “The Twins have been brutal to start the season and I think my services are worth at least 4.3 fWAR to them.” In the past, OVO LASIK partnered with the Minnesota Wild and would giveaway free LASIK to one lucky fan if the team scored a goal in the last two minutes of the second period. Fortunately, Twins fans will have a similar opportunity. Every time a reliever gives up an earned run in the 7th inning or later, one lucky fan at the game will be given a neuralyzer, allowing them to forget about the atrocities they just witnessed. So far this season, 18 Twins fans have been lucky enough to receive the gadget from the Men In Black franchise. Twins Daily attempted to reach Dr. David Whiting for comment on the partnership, but it's been speculated he's looking to join a rival clinic after concerns that OVO LASIK will be filing for bankruptcy by September 1st due to the partnership with the Twins. The players themselves are also excited about the partnership. Twins reliever Griffin Jax, who is sporting an 9.00 ERA through 11 appearances, thinks he can get back to his 2022-2024 self after the procedure. “It was like clockwork, I turned 30 and my vision started getting worse”, said Jax. “Ryan Jeffers’ glove looks like a blur to me so I've just been throwing and hoping for the best, but it turns out my pitches are getting too much of the plate and opposing hitters have been making me pay.” Carlos Correa, who has a career-high 55.6% groundball rate to start the season, is similarly optimistic on the impact the procedure can have on his game. Correa was quoted as saying “When I'm at the plate, I’m seeing three balls come at me at the same time.” The Twins star shortstop went on to say “I basically have been aiming for the middle ball, but it's resulted in me getting on top of everything this season.” Finally, the defense that leads the league in throwing errors also looks to benefit from the surgery. One player, who wanted to remain anonymous, was quick to write off vision as the reason for their early season throwing woes. “Look, Ty France is all of 5’ 11” tall”, said the anonymous fielder. “Instead of putting the onus on the rest of us, maybe Shortstack should start wearing some platform shoes at first base.” While LASIK typically does improve vision in the hours and days following the procedure, it can take 3-6 months for vision to fully stabilize. The Twins hope this partnership leads to modest improvement in the short term, but expects the team building activity to really be fruitful following the All-Star break. Just in time for them to use the partnership as an excuse to remain idol at the trade deadline. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are 7-15 and one of the worst teams in baseball. The 52-win pace has tanked their playoff odds, pushing them all the way down to the third-worst in baseball. This week, they host the two teams who have worse odds. If there were ever “must-win” games in April, these would be the ones. Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-Imagn Images To say the Twins have stumbled out of the gate wouldn't be right. It would indicate they were on their feet and walking in the first place. Instead, this team is still on their backs after the historic collapse last season, and the playoff odds at Baseball Reference are taking note of all the clubs running past them. Plummeting like a post-tariff stock market, the Twins's playoff odds are now better only than those of the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox, and they only lead their divisional foe by two games in the standings. While it may be a bit hyperbolic to call these games “must-win”, this is about as close as it gets this early in the season. If the Twins stay on their backs against two maligned teams, any optimism that even the most “glass-half-full” fan might have will be gone. The Twins have put themselves in a position where they must win five games before they travel to Progressive Field for a four-game series against the Cleveland Guardians. Chicago White Sox The Twins already played three against the lowly White Sox in Chicago, and took two of them. In the upcoming series, the Twins will roll with Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Pablo López, though that last is yet to be announced, as he returns from injury. They should make easy work out of a White Sox lineup that has the lowest OPS in baseball. Across the diamond, the White Sox are starting Davis Martin, Shane Smith, and have yet to announce Wednesday’s starter, after losing Martín Pérez to elbow inflammation. Smith, who made his major-league debut against the Twins three weeks ago, has been solid in his first four career starts. The Rule 5 selection from the Milwaukee Brewers has averaged just under six innings a start, with a 3.88 FIP and a 7.8% K-BB rate. Despite average strikeout and walk rates, the righty's pitching Run Value (RV) is currently in the 97th percentile of all qualified starters, due to the lack of production against his fastball, changeup, and slider. Many of the metrics on his Basebll Savant page indicate he’s due for regression, and the Twins must bring him back down to Earth. Martin, whose metrics also suggest some regression ahead, has been less effective, with a 5.27 FIP and a 7.1% K-BB rate. The Twins offense has been a passive, bat-to-ball team so far this year, and these two pitchers are as pitch-to-contact as it gets in 2025. Something has to give, and it has to be in the form of the Twins offense getting to one of the worst bullpens in baseball quickly. Los Angeles Angels How the Angels are 11-10 this season is anybody's guess. Their offense, rotation, and bullpen all rank in the bottom third in baseball, although they've hit the fourth-most home runs. While no starters have been announced, it's likely the Twins roll with Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Simeon Woods Richardson over the weekend. For what it's worth, on the latest edition of Inside Twins, Rocco Baldelli said it's unlikely they utilize a six-man rotation at this point, indicating Woods Richardson or (more likely) Festa will be optioned out when López returns on Thursday. Regardless of who takes the ball, the Angels currently have a .694 OPS, with the third-highest strikeout rate and second-lowest walk rate in baseball. Twins starters will be tasked with limiting the long ball and taming a red-hot Kyren Paris, to give their bleak offense a chance. The Angels are likely to roll with Kyle Hendriks, Yusei Kikuchi, and José Soriano, who each have above-average strikeout rates, below-average walk rates, and FIPs that indicate they're due for some regression. Despite matchups that should theoretically favor the Twins, it's a recipe that could lead to some frustrating results if they continue to be passive at the plate. The Twins currently find themselves in DEFCON 2 (that's the second-highest; I Googled it), but even splitting these six games would graduate them to DEFCON 1 status. While a dominant week will do little to re-establish hope for this abysmal start to the season, not taking care of business will all but put the nail in their coffin. View full article

You missed the point...Baldelli isn't the problem.

The seventh-year manager is assuredly on the hot seat amid a 7-15 start to the season. A loud sector of the fan base has wanted him gone for much of his tenure. While it seems more likely than not at this point, the skipper would only be the fall guy for a total system failure. Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images Before we begin Rocco Baldelli’s defense portion of this trial, let's play the side of the prosecution. Like all managers—nay, people—Baldelli is not perfect. Does he lean too much into matchups at times, in lieu of letting his best batters hit? Yep. Is he guilty of not giving his starting pitchers a longer leash? Sometimes. Has he been a player’s manager, almost to a fault? Has his message fallen on deaf ears within the clubhouse? You could make those arguments. A friend of mine said this a few years back, and I think it rings true, to a certain extent: Baldelli doesn't seem overly compelled to win any single game; he's always managing with the bigger picture in mind. Is that a problem? Not glaringly so, but maybe a little bit. However, will any of this change if he's relieved of his duties and someone else (whether it be internally or externally) takes over? I don't think so. The Twins' skipper (and the front office, to an extent) has been the victim of cheap ownership and a fan base that has misguided much of their anger in his direction. Baldelli took over as manager for an organization that had played in just one postseason game in eight seasons. You won't hear the people who want him fired give him credit for leading a record-breaking “Bomba Squad” or winning over 100 games in his first season. You won't hear those same people give him credit for managing through a COVID-shortened season that saw the Twins win their second consecutive American League Central title. After all, it's the players who make the plays and win the games, right? Why, then, are they so quick to point the finger toward the dugout when the players are the ones underachieving? In addition to being strapped for cash, Baldelli has had to manage through continuous injuries and underperformance from the highest-paid players on the team. Byron Buxton’s and Carlos Correa’s injuries and performance have been a hot topic each year. This year, the two have combined for a .639 OPS, with four home runs and a 36:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 152 plate appearances. While both players have experienced success under Baldelli, it only comes in spurts and has been overshadowed by injuries. Is that his fault? Even their highest-paid pitcher, Pablo López, left the team wanting more in an up-and-down 2024 season. Down his best players (or getting underwhelming production from them), Baldelli has often been forced to rely on unproven talent or veterans looking for another chance. Offensively, I've sorted a list of all players who have gotten more than 150 plate appearances in a season ascending by fWAR. The list includes guys like Jose Miranda (-0.7 fWAR in 2023), Jake Cave (-0.6 in 2021), Willians Astudillo (-0.5 in 2021), and seven others who played often, despite being worse than replacement-level. In many of those cases, Baldelli didn't have a choice but to rely on guys who weren't producing. Instead of prioritizing depth behind their oft-injured stars, the Twins have given Baldelli the likes of Gilberto Celestino (0.4 in 2022) and Austin Martin (-0.2 in 2024) to cover for Buxton, and a bevy of players who don't call shortstop home to cover for Correa. Celestino has not received a major-league at-bat since he left the Twins organization. That doesn't even cover failed signings like Andrelton Simmons (somehow accrued 0.9 fWAR in 2021) and Joey Gallo (again, somehow 0.8 fWAR in 2023), who both got limited opportunities following their departures and found themselves out of baseball just a season after getting significant playing time with the Twins. While the front office can point their fingers at the Pohlads, they haven't maximized their return on the limited funds they've been allotted. This is especially true when we shift to pitchers. Through Baldelli’s fourth season (2022), he was forced to start the group above 245 times (38% of games). Moreover, there are plenty of names who received multiple starts that would make for good answers on an Immaculate Grid board. While the idea that he never lets his starters go is somewhat specious (12th in SP innings since 2019), would you want to push those guys to give you more innings than they were already asked to? Fortunately for Baldelli, he's been the beneficiary of the Twins' phenomenal pitching development recently, which wasn't as highly thought of in the first half of his tenure with the team. Then we shift to the bullpen, and the many failed signings and trades throughout the Baldelli era. The worst names on that list include Sam Dyson, Hansel Robles, Alex Colomé, Joe Smith, Michael Fulmer, and Jorge López. Not a single one of those players have been consistently productive since joining other organizations, and more than one of them threw their last professional pitch with the Twins. We're going to blame Baldelli for that? Or more recently, is it on Baldelli that Griffin Jax has an 11.25 ERA right now? To be fair to the front office, they have hit on some moves, as well. Acquiring Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, and López for the top of the rotation have been wins. Nelson Cruz, Gio Urshela, Carlos Correa, Michael A. Taylor and Carlos Santana (maybe a couple others) have yielded positive returns. That said, they've had far more whiffs and foul tips than hits while Baldelli has been at the helm. Generally speaking, I don't think a manager has a determinative impact on player performance, one way or another. I didn't give Baldelli credit for 2019, and I'm not going to blame him for the Twins' last 60 games. Don't get me wrong, Baldelli has his warts, and, as they say, “you can't fire the players”. However, if (seems more like "when") he gets fired, he’ll just be the “fall guy”. Until the Twins get new ownership, front office personnel will continue to be hamstrung—and the manager, whether it be Baldelli or someone else, will continue to be left with mediocre or worse teams. Simply put, Rocco Baldelli is not the reason for the Twins' total system failure. He's never been the total system. View full article

The Minnesota Twins offense has been a bottom-five offense to start the season. Bottom line: it's been brutal. However, if you were expecting anything different, you might have been kidding yourself. (Don't worry; I'm guilty, too.) Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images Entering Sunday’s game, Twins batters were 27th in OPS, 28th in walk rate, and 25th in Win Probability Added (WPA) among the 30 MLB teams. Ironically, after years and years of gripes from a large portion of the fan base, their strikeout rate of 22.7% ranks a respectable 16th. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said when runners are in scoring position. In those situations, the Twins' strikeout rate jumps to 24.6% (fifth-highest in baseball) and their walk rate drops to 6.3% (second-lowest in baseball), although their OPS is actually 54 points higher. The greatest source of concern, though, is their quality of contact. While they have hit the ball hard and are an extreme pull-hitting team, they currently have the 10th-highest groundball rate in the league. Data shows that the most productive batted balls are hit in the air to the batter’s pull side. Since 2021, the difference between pulling the ball on the ground versus in the air is roughly a peak Barry Bonds worth of OPS (1.780 versus .401). Just putting the ball in play against a professional defense to “see what happens” rarely gets the job done. Looking back to last season, it was easy to write off the last month and a half to a team-wide, contagious slump. Surely, a team that was on a 92-win pace through 124 games just needed the offseason to reset after a historic collapse, right? Alas, that “slump” has carried over into the 2025 season and since the start of that collapse, the team is on a 50-win pace over 60 games. I'm here to tell you this isn't a slump; it's who they are. While they profiled differently last year by pulling the ball in the air more, they finished the season near the bottom third of teams in OPS and wRC+ with runners in scoring position. Removing that split from the equation, the team was in the top third of teams in the same categories. The difference can also be seen in their WPA. While they finished ninth in WPA in 2024, their Clutch rating of -1.27 indicates that they would have been even better—perhaps far better—had they hit as well when the chips were down as they did in lower-leverage situations. Not only has that carried over into 2025, but their ineptitude has been exacerbated by a diminished quality of contact regardless of the situation. That's all to say, the Twins failed to have productive at-bats when it mattered most. However, it's not an issue that is unique to having runners in scoring position. As is the case in most sports, the general goal is to be roughly .500 against the “good” teams and take care of business against the “bad” teams. The Twins were very good at the latter last season, but not so much the former. In fact, the Twins offense (once again) didn't show up when it mattered most in 2024. Against playoff teams, they not only performed below their season averages, but also performed worse than the league average in nearly all statistical categories. While their offense as a whole performed well, they failed to execute in the season’s biggest moments. While we focused tightly on the last 39 games of 2024, we’re seeing in 2025 that that might be misguided. The Twins offense isn't off to a slow start. This is who they have been. This is who they are. View full article

The Minnesota Twins entered the season expecting to have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball. While they've been good to start the season, they haven't been as effective as many expected them to be. In particular, one of their relief aces hasn't been as effective as he has in previous years. Let's dive in. Image courtesy of © Matt Krohn-Imagn Images It's been three years since Griffin Jax converted into a reliever and quickly became one of the best high leverage arms in all of baseball. After getting past the speculation and idea that he might return to the rotation in 2025, it was the expectation that he would be a two-headed monster with Jhoan Durán at the back of the Twins bullpen. Heck, some might even say that Durán is the “closer” by name but that Jax really is the star of the relief group. Alas, three weeks into the season and Jax has already coughed up two homers on 12 hits in 7 ⅔ innings. He's getting rocked and trending toward a major departure from his past numbers. Surely, there has to be a change in his pitch profile that has led to him not only being more hittable but to being hit harder than ever before, right? Not so fast. Despite the lackluster start to the season, Jax is still striking out 29.7% of batters (about five points less than in 2024) and walking an impressive 2.7% of batters. The velocities of each pitch in his arsenal remain the same from 2024, although he's featuring his changeup more to lefties and relying less on his fastball which had a Run Value (RV) of nine in 2024. Having thrown just 135 pitches so far this season, it's probably too early to read too much into his pitch mix, especially when he’s seen nearly a 50/50 split of left handed batters and right-handed batters. If we look into his movement and spin rates, which may be equally as insignificant this early, we’ll see a slight change in his profile. It appears his sweeper, his most oft used pitch, has less sweep but his fastball has slightly more rise to it. The graphic below, broken down by month, shows that his spin rates tend to increase as the season goes on, indicating this is not out of the ordinary for him this early in the season. For reference, despite the lower spin rates, he still carries gaudy strikeout and walk rates with a 2.71 FIP in March and April. Again, it's too early to take anything meaningful away from the data presented so far but the contour profile of his pitches may be telling indicators explaining his early season struggles. Remember when I said his sweeper has less sweep? This has resulted in him leaving the pitch over the middle of the plate (dark red blob sitting middle-middle isn't good), whereas in 2024 the pitch typically was low, away, and out of the zone to right-handed batters. While it hasn't resulted in additional home runs we've seen a significant increase in opponent’s batting average and especially their slugging percentage in the early going. Moreover, Jax has also been missing with his fastball up in the zone. This has resulted in a .429 opponents batting average, a 1.289 slugging percentage, and two home runs against the offering. Last season, he allowed just two home runs off the pitch all year. So, are we concerned about Jax’s effectiveness? Not yet, but it's something to keep an eye on in the early going here. It's a good sign that we aren't signing diminished velocity or stuff from the 30-year-old, as relievers are the most volatile position group from year-to-year. Right now the problem seems to simply be execution. Especially with such a limited sample, it very well could be that Jax will find his groove and get back to hitting his spots as the year rolls on. What is your level of concern with Jax’s hittability in the first weeks of the season? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article