Matthew Lenz

Despite a 2024 campaign that saw him produce at the plate and provide solid defense at first, his role on the 2025 team is in flux. It's time for him to hit like he's running out of time, because he is. Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images For the first half of last season, Jose Miranda was arguably the MVP of the Minnesota Twins. In 255 at-bats, he carried an .888 OPS with 30 extra-base hits (nine of them home runs); a solid strikeout rate; and decent batted-ball data. Then, like much of the team, everything went to hell for Miranda around mid-August. Over the final two months, his OPS plummeted more than 300 points; he had only 10 extra-base hits (none of which left the park); his strikeout rate climbed nearly six percentage points; and his quality of contact was below average. It really wasn't all that surprising of a fall-off, as his aggressive approach at the plate leaves him vulnerable to inconsistency. A sub-20% strikeout rate looks good, but there are underlying concerns when that's coupled with a sub-5% walk rate. That slump (and concerns about his overall profile) forced the Twins' hand in finding someone who could more consistently produce while playing first base. In fact, before spring training even started, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli all but anointed Ty France as the starting first baseman. If you're like me, that led you to believe that Miranda would be on the short side of a platoon at first, while also covering at third when Royce Lewis needs a day off (or gets injured). Almost a month since Baldelli’s proclamation, Miranda has only played parts of three games at first while Eduoard Julien and Mickey Gasper battle it out behind France. Realistically, Julien and Gasper aren’t threats to make a significant dent in Miranda’s playing time. It's more likely that the two are fighting for the last bench spot on the roster, and that's why both are getting time at first base: for the at-bats, rather than the defensive exposure. Baldelli is ensuring that both are provided plenty of opportunities to compete for a spot on the Opening Day roster as a utility option. Miranda’s role as the secondary option at first and at the hot corner does seem to be intact, as he's made the second-most appearances on the team during Grapefruit League action. He's looked solid, with more walks than strikeouts and a .708 OPS, albeit with a solitary home run as his lone extra-base hit. Yet, even coming off a 120 wRC+ season and with four years of team control remaining, he might end up in a reserve role. While that certainly does seem to be the case, Miranda provides a pretty solid safety net for two players surrounded by questions. In addition to a slump of his own over the second half of the season, Lewis has a lengthy injury history. Him playing 140 games—heck, even 120 games—is far from a guarantee. France is coming off a career-worst season that saw him accrue -0.9 fWAR across 140 games. One way or another, especially when you consider the rotating DH position in the order, it seems likely that Miranda will find a way to get at-bats. The Twins sent an interesting message to Miranda by bringing in France and quickly naming him the starter. It showed that the team currently doesn't see him as the primary first baseman, despite a good 2024 season. While the signing lessens his role in 2025, he needs to leverage this limited opportunity to establish himself as the long-term first baseman after France’s one-year pact expires. Only time will tell if he will flourish—or flounder, and force the Twins' hand again next offseason. In that case, he'd probably end up facing the same questions in new colors next spring. What is your long-term outlook for Jose Miranda? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Twins have seven major-league-ready starters and another two or three who are very close. Meanwhile, multiple teams around the league are dealing with injuries to their rotation from significant contributors. Is it time for the Twins to cash in on their pitching pipeline? Image courtesy of Left & Middle: © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images; Right:© Tim Heitman-Imagn Images There may be no better-positioned team than the Twins to take advantage of some of the injuries around the league. Behind one of the best starting pitcher trios in baseball stands a solid group of guys who would be improvements over many other teams' fourth and fifth options: Chris Paddack, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. Then, behind them, there's a group of near-ready arms in Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, and Marco Raya. Some of them have questions and/or are unproven, but the Twins arguably have the deepest rotation group at the highest two levels of pro ball, and are in a position to be opportunistic. Many teams are looking for rotation help this close to Opening Day. So, to deal or not to deal? That is the question. If you’re like me, then you live by the credo that you can never have enough pitching. It’s the most valuable asset in the game and, no matter how desperate other teams are, the last thing most fans want is for the Twins to be in their position months from now. After all, while the Twins rotation is relatively healthy right now, Joe Ryan and Paddack haven’t been pillars of health, and their core of young pitchers aren’t guaranteed to meet the expectations put on them. Meanwhile, on the other side of the argument is the belief that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect (TINSTAAPP). This theory, created by Baseball Prospectus founder Gary Huckabay, basically suggests that pitching prospects' range of outcomes are so volatile that teams shouldn’t become too tied to them. For every Paul Skenes, there is a Mark Appel, a Matt Bush, a Kyle Drabek, and a Brian Matusz—and this is doubly true for prep arms. At the very least, the Twins must do their due diligence. At this point in spring training, the Twins' 40-man roster seems pretty well set. While there are battles that will impact the Opening Day active roster, the Twins filled their gaps this winter, with Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, and Ty France (among other, less notable depth options). While there is always room to improve, it can be a little hard to envision a deal between two teams that are looking to contend for the playoffs in the upcoming season. The Twins won’t be looking to flip a major-league or Triple-A arm for far-away prospects, and opposing teams likely aren't going to borrow from Paul to pay Pete. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at the teams in need and what they may have to offer to the Twins. New York Yankees - Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil Fresh off the news of their ace needing Tommy John surgery, the Yankees now have two holes in their rotation. They'd already lost the American League Rookie of the Year to a lat strain for at least two months. The 2024 World Series runner-up does have decent options to fill those losses, in Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren, but those aren’t names whom they’re ready to rely on over a large chunk of the season. The Yankees don’t have great depth at any one position, so it’s really hard to find a deal that both teams would be interested in. The Yankees don't have a great backup to starting catcher Austin Wells, but because they're already up against the top threshold of the competitive-balance tax ladder, it's hard to imagine them being willing to take on both Paddack and Christian Vázquez—at least not while giving the Twins anything of real value. New York Mets - Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas The other team in the Big Apple has also lost two starters this spring, as well as their starting catcher, Francisco Alvarez. The timelines of Manaea and Montas are unclear at this point, although neither are supposed to be long-term injuries, and after the Montas injury (but prior to the Manaea injury) the team said they were not planning to add another starter. While they haven’t publicly changed their stance in the last two weeks, it’s hard to envision them sitting on their hands after an offseason that saw them land Juan Soto and re-sign Pete Alonso. Unlike the Yankees, they could be in a position to take on a couple of contracts to supplement one of the best lineups in the league, and unlike the Yankees, the Mets do have some intriguing pieces that are at or close to the major-league level. It’s still hard to see a deal come to fruition between these two, but the Mets do have young pieces who could help the Twins in 2025 and beyond. Given that the Twins' financial impetus to move Paddack and/or Vázquez seems to have been removed, though, finding a value fit on each side might be difficult. Baltimore Orioles - Grayson Rodriguez Rodriguez, who missed the last two months of the 2024 season, is set to start 2025 on the IL with elbow inflammation. At this point, the team is shutting him down for about a week and then he will begin a throwing program. The Orioles are loaded with young talent, some of which have been blocked from getting significant runs in the big leagues. While the Twins did shore up first base, I’ve long been a fan of Ryan Mountcastle, who has two years of team control left and could be replaced on the Baltimore roster with a number of talented options. Or, since that would create a roster crunch for the Twins, maybe they kick the tires on one of those talented options like Heston Kjerstad, who has more team control and positional versatility but would certainly cost an arm like Festa or Matthews, rather than Paddack. Seattle Mariners - George Kirby Kirby has been shut down with shoulder inflammation but, at least for now, this appears to be a short-term injury; no structural damage was found. Of the teams we’ve discussed, the Mariners may be the most motivated to add. They’ve made small but affirmative “win-now” type moves in recent times, trading for Randy Arozarena at last year's deadline, signing Mitch Garver the winter before, trading for and re-signing Jorge Polanco, and holding on to Luis Castillo. Despite all that, PECOTA projects them to finish third in the AL West, while competing for a Wild Card spot with an offense that is projected to be slightly below average. While their pitching staff is the strength of the team, the difference between Kirby and Emerson Hancock may be too much to overcome while staying competitive. The Mariners don’t have much depth and, while their farm system is very good at the top, many of their top prospects are years away from the bigs. While this isn’t a comprehensive list, it is a list of the biggest names that teams have lost since the start of spring training. While I do think it would be in the Twins' best interest to kick the tires, I’m struggling to see a trade scenario that makes sense at this point. It’s my opinion that Twins should stand pat for now. They can always reassess at the deadline, once there is a clearer picture of how their season is unfolding and where gaps may exist on their roster. Do you think the Twins should trade from their pitching depth? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

It's a small sample (literally one start of thirty three pitches), but it seems that David Festa has made some changes to his mechanics that are impacting his pitch movement. Oh, he's added a pitch to his arsenal too. What did we see in his first start of the spring that used publicly accessible statcast technology? Let's dive in. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images It’s been a couple of weeks since David Festa made his spring training debut against the Pittsburgh Pirates. On the surface there wasn't much to the start wherein he faced seven batters across two frames striking out two and allowing one base hit. As you dive deeper, though, you start to realize that quite a bit has changed with the 25-year-old since the last time we saw him on a big-league mound. In his rookie season, right-handed batters had an opponent batting average of .360 and slugging percentage of .700 against his fastball. To counter that, he’s added a sinker that he will primarily deploy against righties as a different look from his four-seam fastball. The addition of that offering should not only be more effective than his four-seamer, but it should actually help the pitch become more effective as hitters have one additional offering to consider. In addition to deepening his arsenal, the lanky righty has dropped his arm slot 11 degrees which has impacted the movement pattern of his pitches. On the left, you see Festa’s movement patterns from his August 28th start against the Atlanta Braves, and on the right his spring training start. In addition to the added sinker, we can see the following changes in his spring training start: The fastball has more arm side action The change up has more horizontal and vertical movement The slider has less horizontal and vertical movement Albeit thirty-three pitches of data, that's a significant change in his profile, so let's dive into the implications of those changes. The added run to his fastball should counteract the downward movement of the sinker. While less movement in his slider can make it less deceptive, the average velocity on the pitch in this start was two miles per hour faster than it was in August. This will help keep hitters off-balance and potentially offset the hitability of the pitch due to the movement change. Of all the changes the most significant may be with his changeup that had more run and depth in his spring training start. Of his three offerings in 2024, the changeup was his least used pitch yet (28% of the time) but generated the highest whiff percentage at 39.1%. It was especially utilized against lefties where the usage rate jumped to nearly 40% and carried an opponent wOBA of .304. Especially with the added depth, the 2025 version of the pitch looks to separate itself even more from his four-seam fastball, which should generate even more whiffs this season, particularly against right-handed bats. If you read the entire thread above, D.J. Morgan of Medium suggests that Festa’s new and improved changeup isn't only due to his change in arm slot. In one of the subsequent tweets (but seriously, go and read the entire thread…it's very insightful), he shares the following adjustments to the pitch grip from the traditional circle change grip: Middle & ring fingers shifted to a two-seam orientation Index finger moved lower on the ball. Like his sinker, this adjustment should not only directly improve his changeup, but we can also anticipate it indirectly helping his fastball. Festa started Friday afternoon against the Tamps Rays, a game that ended in a 9-9 tie. He gave up five runs in his 3 2/3 innings, with most of the damage coming in the third inning. "I thought in that third inning, I just got too predictable," Festa said after the game. Unfortunately, Tampa Bay’s spring training park doesn't have publicly accessible statcast data, so you’ll need to find a replay of the game and rely on your eye test to see if these changes will stick from start to start. Regardless, it's encouraging that one of the Twins' top pitching arms is looking to get even better after a rookie season that saw him produce a 19.5% K-BB rate and a 3.76 FIP across 64 ⅓ innings. It's just more evidence that points to the Twins being one of the best pitching development organizations in the league. For Festa, it's more evidence that his prospect pedigree and 2024 success was warranted, and whether he wins a roster out of camp or not, he's not far from having a big impact on the big-league club. What are your initial thoughts on the new and improved Festa? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Twins are roughly a third of the way through their Grapefruit League season, which means it’s time to check in on the unresolved position battles. Who’s been manning the keystone? Is there a favorite for the fifth rotation spot? How is the bullpen shaping up? Is Rocco Baldelli dropping any hints? Image courtesy of © Chris Tilley-Imagn Images Before the start of spring training, I previewed three positional battles: second base, the rotation anchor, and the final two bullpen spots. Eight games into their spring training season and after weeks' worth of interviews, we are starting to get an idea of how these battles are unfolding. Second Base This battle is between Willi Castro, Brooks Lee, Mickey Gasper and Edouard Julien. From a pure playing time perspective, Gasper leads the way with four games played at second, followed by Lee (3), Castro (2), and Julien (1). A few non-roster invitees have gotten into the mix, but none of them really have a shot at making the Opening Day roster. Keeping small samples in mind (and that we don’t put a lot of stock in spring training stats), Gasper is making the most of his opportunity, leading the way with a .665 OPS. In fairness, though, that's just a single point ahead of Julien among the four in this battle. Lee and Castro have struggled mightily, carrying sub-.500 OPSes, but it’s interesting to note that each player’s walk-to-strikeout ratio is at least 1.00. This is something to keep a close eye on for Lee, as Baldelli shared with reporters in a scrum following their spring training opener on Feb. 22 in Fort Myers, Fla.: “Having quality at-bats and controlling the zone is going to be really important for [Lee], something that challenged him during the season last year and something that is part of his focus going into this year,” Baldelli said. A week earlier, Lee had this to say regarding his offseason work related to swing mechanics: “When you have good mechanics, and your swing is quick, you don't have any wasted movements, then you get to make a decision later. While the ball's coming to the plate, you can make a decision late. So that's what I think is a big difference on how I see the pitch and then my swing decisions.” Many questions remain unanswered here, but as Baldelli intimated at the start of camp, this might be a spot where they simply don't arrive at any one full-time answer—not this month, and perhaps not throughout the season. As was true in 2024, the keystone looks like it will be a merry-go-round of sorts, with Castro likely leading the way. Gasper wasn’t really in the picture (at least mine) a few weeks ago, but he’s making at least a modest case to make the roster, which could have implications for Lee and Julien. 5th Rotation Spot This battle is between Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews. It was my opinion that Woods Richardson had the edge, purely based on a 2024 performance that saw him carry a sub-4.00 ERA into the final month of the season before he ran out of gas. Funnily enough, Matthews and Festa are the top two in innings pitched (although with 5 and 4 ⅓, respectively), followed by Woods Richardson, who has 4. It’s clear these three will each get an opportunity to crack the Opening Day roster, and from a statistical perspective, Matthews is leading the way with a 7:0 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 0.88 FIP. Festa isn’t far behind analytically, but on the surface, he was knocked around quite a bit in his second outing, allowing six baserunners and four earned runs. As we saw in his rookie campaign, Woods Richardson doesn’t have the bat-missing ability of the other two, and is currently carrying a 6.93 FIP. There is very little to read into when it comes to hints from the Twins’ skipper, because he’s had nothing but positive things to say about each of the three players in this battle. One potential takeaway is that he has spoken the most about Matthews (which may be more about the questions being asked), and had this to say after his first outing on Feb. 22: “Yeah, Zebby looked good…his stuff was probably even up a little bit from where we saw it last year in the big leagues.” That was before his second outing, which was even better: he struck out five of 10 batters faced over three innings. While I think Woods Richardson started with the edge, it’s hard to ignore how Matthews has looked. He might be my favorite to round out the rotation, as it sits today. Bullpen This might be the one battle we are getting a clearer picture on. Louis Varland has made four one-inning appearances (in three of which he threw 11 or fewer pitches), and it seems all but guaranteed that he will be in the Twins bullpen on Opening Day. Justin Topa, who was also on the roster bubble, is now dealing with right shoulder tightness, and I already had him pegged to start the year in St. Paul. That leaves Michael Tonkin, Eiberson Castellano, and Jorge Alcalá for the last two spots. Check out my thoughts from earlier this week for a deeper dive on this battle, but here’s the TL;DR version: the Twins should prioritize keeping arms in the organization over putting together the most formidable bullpen on Opening Day. Send Alcalá and Topa to St. Paul, which means they’re carrying Tonkin and Castellano at the bottom of the bullpen. We know how the Twins work. We’re only going to learn about the “winners” of these battles when roster decisions are formally made. They always hold their cards close, and there’s no reason to think that will change now. That said, spring training performances carry some weight, and we can try to read the tea leaves in interviews to get an idea of where things might be headed. We’re three weeks out from Opening Day…who do you think wins these battles? What does your Opening Day roster look like? Drop your ideas in the comments and join the conversation! View full article

Minnesota Twins star Royce Lewis spent the offseason getting back to his roots to prepare for the 2025 season. What does that mean and how will it help him be successful and stay on the field? View full video

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After months of speculation, it seems unofficially official that Louis Varland will be a reliever for the Minnesota Twins this season. While Twins manager Rocco Baldelli continues to keep his cards close to his chest, it’s hard to ignore the signs. What gives us this impression, and what implications will such a move have on others fighting for a roster spot? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images The Twins are roughly one-third of the way through their Grapefruit League schedule, and to this point we have seen Louis Varland make four appearances. It’s not overly notable that all of those have come in relief, but an interesting trend has emerged in the box scores (listed chronologically): Not only has Varland been limited to one-inning outings, but his pitch count has been kept “suspiciously” low, as well. If he was being stretched out as a starter, or even a multi-inning reliever, he assuredly would need to be on the mound for more than an inning or a dozen pitches at a time. With just four innings under his belt and only the first two frames taking place in a stadium with publicly accessible Statcast technology, it remains to be seen how this will impact his velocity and pitch mix. As it stands right now, his velocity and spin rates are roughly the same as his 2024 numbers, although I would expect that to change as the sample grows and the season ramps up. Regardless, in 29 ⅓ regular season innings as a reliever, his analytics suggest this is the right move. Across 16 appearances, he’s carried a 25.6% K-BB rate and a 3.54 FIP, which is nearly two runs better than as a starter. So why can’t we make this unofficial announcement official? Well, Rocco Baldelli is still claiming that they have yet to label Varland's role for the season. On Mar. 1, in a scrum with reporters following the spring training tilt against the Boston Red Sox (Varland’s third appearance), the Twins skipper said: “I don’t remember or recall backfield outings where [Varland is] being stretched out at the moment. He’s going to throw some multi-inning appearances this spring, no matter what we end up landing on for him. But getting a chance to see him throw an inning, kind of a revved-up inning, let him come in from the pen doing that gets him the work we’re looking for from him right now. We’re still waiting to see those “multi-inning appearances” and, in his defense, the spring training season is still relatively young. That said, despite not formally giving Varland a label, it’s getting harder to ignore what the box scores are telling us—in addition to the success he’s experienced as a reliever. So, if we are reading the tea leaves correctly, what impact will this have on the major-league roster. Entering spring training, I hypothesized that the Twins would carry eight relievers, and that only two of those spots were really open. Initially, I had Michael Tonkin as a lock to make the Opening Day roster, but I’m less confident in that given his spring. I am swapping him out for Varland as a lock—which means, if our conjecture ends up being true, we’re still at two spots for a few different arms. We know who’s at the top of the pecking order, so the last two spots likely come down to Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Tonkin, or Eiberson Castellano. Alcalá has mostly proven to be a good reliever when he’s healthy. Take out the month of August last season, and he was one of the more reliable and productive members of the Twins bullpen. He’s been used sparingly this spring, but one interesting thing to note is that he is only eight days away from reaching five years of service, whereupon he would need to agree to be optioned to Triple-A St. Paul. Topa is another effective reliever, when healthy, but his 2024 season was basically a loss, and he's now 34 years old. Like Alcalá, he’s only thrown two innings this spring, but unlike Alcalá, his appearances have been a bit messy. He's given up four hits and an earned run, while striking out two. Despite his age, he’s accrued far less service time than Alcalá and could be optioned at any point this season. Tonkin bounced around quite a bit last year, but ended the season as one of the more reliable arms for the Twins, which says more about the team’s performance than it does about him. He’s had an unfortunate spring, giving up eight base runners and four earned runs across 2 ⅔ innings. He’s out of options, though, and if he doesn’t crack the Opening Day roster, he would likely be lost to waivers. The best argument for keeping him is that he's the rubber arm in the group. In a pen full of pitchers with some notable injury histories, Tonkin offers durability. Castellano has gone three innings across two appearances, including a rough two-inning outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Feb. 28. Of course, being a Rule 5 Draft selection means that the Twins have to carry him on their active roster or offer him back to the Philadelphia Phillies. Theoretically, they could try and swing a trade with the Phillies to keep him in the organization, but rumors suggest they tried to trade for him ahead of the Rule 5 Draft to no avail. I think the Twins need to be strategic with how they handle the last spot in the bullpen; there is a way to do this without losing any arms. The season is a marathon, not a sprint, so I think it’s okay if they don't deploy the best 26 players in the organization on Opening Day, especially when it comes to the bullpen. Regardless of how his spring turns out, I like the long-term outlook for Castellano, and think he should be carried on the active roster for the entirety of the 2025 season. While I don’t think Tonkin is the best arm between Topa and Alcalá (in fact, he might be the worst), he’s the only one who cannot be optioned to Triple-A. Thus, I would pencil him in at the bottom of the bullpen totem pole. Strategically, I’m taking advantage of the eight days Alcalá has left to be freely optioned, and I'm also starting Topa with the Saints. Again, this isn’t about having the best 26-man roster possible, but instead hoarding the most valuable resource in baseball. You can never have enough pitching, and when injury or poor performance strikes, the Twins would be in a really good spot if they had multiple arms in St. Paul at the ready. The plan for the bullpen is more about winning the marathon and keeping as many MLB-ready arms in the organization as possible. What does your Opening Day bullpen look like? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Twins have a problem in their hands. A good problem, that is. They have more Major League ready arms than they can fit on their active roster. Who starts the year in St. Paul? And of that group, who still impacts the 2025 Twins? View full video

On February 12th it was announced that Major League Baseball has partnered with Pokémon GO. The two parties have agreed to 14 themed games that will allow fans (or “trainers”) to play from anywhere they’re sitting in the park. Our Minnesota Twins were one of the 14 selected to host a Pokémon GO-themed games. Image courtesy of Target Field - "Target Field April 2010" by Randy Stern is licensed under CC BY 2.0: Pikachu - "Pikachu" by RichardBH is licensed under CC BY 2.0. Other Pokemon: "Pokémon Go Takes Chicago" by tophrrrr is licensed under CC BY 2.0. If you're unfamiliar with Pokémon GO it's essentially a virtual scavenger hunt where you use your phone to collect Pokémon like baseball cards. Instead of finding them at your local card store, the game forces users (called “trainers”) to get outside and walk around their parks, neighborhoods, and now Target Field. On Sunday, August 31st the Twins host the San Diego Padres and a Pokémon GO-themed baseball game. For those of you with kids 12 and under, you can make it a dually exciting day by being one of the first 5,000 fans to get a Twins “Squishie” pillow! Then, stick around after the day to run the bases (like every Sunday home game)! Okay, back to Pokémon GO. In addition to the theme night, Target Field “will feature all-new, official club-branded PokéStops and Gyms” during the entirety of their season. The blog update from their website continues to say, “trainers can also check out newly created Official Routes at the ballparks!” Again, that's at every game! So what's special about the theme night? The theme night will feature the PokéSrops, Gyms, and official routes noted above, but trainers can add on to the fun with: Pokémon GO and club-branded merchandise Exclusive in-game avatar items Timed Research awarding exciting Pokémon encounters Raid Battles where Trainers have a chance to catch Pokémon with a Location Background While there are 13 other games (for now), this is the only time the Twins will be involved in one of these theme games. Unlike the other three major sports, baseball is one that many people watch passively. While there are obvious downsides to this, such as hurting the sports marketability, MLB made a brilliant move here. Not only does it cater to the sector of the fan base they're allegedly losing, but it encourages the passive fan to get out to the ballpark. Bored at the game? Head to your nearest PokéStop! Headed to the restroom? Swing by a Gym on the way too or from! It's a great and creative way to get people to the ballpark - even if they're not overly interested in the ballgame. So, any Pokémon GO trainers here? Are you planning on attending the theme night? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Twins have multiple players who can play second base for the upcoming season. Will just one of those players win the job, or will it be a bit of a rotation? Spring performances could help decide that answer. Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images In 2024, the Twins' second base group combined for -10 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), fourth-worst in all of baseball. Nor were they much better on the offensive side of things. While six different players manned the keystone, Edouard Julien, Kyle Farmer, and Willi Castro got the lion's share of the opportunities. With one of those players out of the picture and Julien coming off a pretty terrible sophomore season, will Casto be Carlos Correa’s primary double-play partner? Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli addressed this question in a scrum with reporters at Twins spring training in Fort Myers, Fla., on one of the first days of camp. “As we sit here right now, we don't have one player that I think I'm going to say, yeah, that guy's going to get 600 plate appearances over at second base," Baldelli said. So, who will get the most plate appearances? Unsurprisingly, Baldelli held his cards close. “There's several of them. So it's not like it's one, it's not even like it's two. There's more than that. So I like knowing that we have good, talented options…” I mean, there aren’t even tea leaves to read there. We’re completely left to hypothesize what the playing time at second base will look like in 2025. For what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projections and their manually estimated Depth Charts lay out the following timeshare at the position: Brooks Lee 315 PA (45%) Julien 210 PA (30%) Austin Martin 105 PA (15%) Mickey Gasper 35 PA (5%) Castro 35 PA (5%) When previewing the spring training battles, I had previously suggested that second base would again be a merry-go-round in 2025, but that Castro would ultimately get most of the time. Given the question marks surrounding everyone else on that list, recent comments Baldelli made regarding Martin in the outfield, and Castro’s putrid defense in the outfield, I still think that will be the case. Despite being a Gold Glove finalist in 2024, Castro’s only above-average spot on the field has been at third base. He was roughly average at second, but graded out pretty terribly everywhere else. Royce Lewis has a hold on third base (barring health issues) and the Twins have five guys who will see a lot of time in the outfield, so I don’t really understand why they wouldn't roll with Casto as the primary second baseman—albeit with the understanding that injuries elsewhere might force him to move around and the team to adapt accordingly. Of the five names BP lists above, he’s far and away the biggest contributor at the plate and was the most reliable with the glove in 2024. So, how isn’t Castro the clear favorite to be the primary second basemen in 2025? I think it pretty easily comes down to wanting to find a longer-term answer at the position. Castro will be a free agent at season’s end, so who plays in 2026 is very much an open question. If it's not Lee, that person may not even be on the 40-man roster right now. Julien has a lot to prove if he wants to etch himself into the Twins’ long-term plans. Lee struggled a fair amount in his rookie season, but deserves more opportunities to make good on his first-round draft pedigree. Martin will be spending most of his time in the outfield in 2025 and might sneak into the infield when they’re really in a pinch. Realistically, I think it’s pretty likely that at least two of these guys start the year in Triple-A. There are also a couple of fun dark-horse options, though. Payton Eeles exploded onto the prospect scene last year and has a ton of steam behind him in 2025. He’ll undoubtedly start the year in St. Paul, but if he repeats what he did last season, he might get a shot somewhere during the long season ahead. Of course, 2023 second-round pick Luke Keaschall is yet another name to keep an eye on, although he’s more likely to come along slowly in his return from injury and to truly assert himself for 2026. Though it won't be Plan A, Castro getting the majority of the work at second in 2025 wouldn't be a surprise. Given the experience and age of the others in the competition, I’d like to see Julien act as Castro’s counterpart and give him one final chance to prove he has a role on this team. That would give Lee the opportunity to get more seasoning with the Saints, instead of losing at-bats to someone who likely isn’t part of the long-term plans of the organization. Who do you think should get the most reps at second base? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Twins enter the season with a solid stable of arms. They have one of the best “problems” in sports, because some of the arms in that stable are major league-ready, but will be forced to start the year at Triple-A St. Paul. Of the pitchers who don't crack the Opening Day roster, which ones are still likely to have an impact this year? Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Four of the five Twins rotation spots were locked down before camp even started, and the fifth one has a clear favorite. Pablo López will headline a very strong top three, followed by Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Chris Paddack is the other lock, and I think Simeon Woods Richardson is the favorite to land the fifth spot. David Festa and Zebby Matthews will give Woods Richardson a run for his money, but given his success last year (prior to running out of gas at the end), he’s earned an edge over Festa and Matthews. Turning to the bullpen, we have two spots for roughly five arms. I'm considering Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Brock Stewart, Michael Tonkin and Danny Coulombe as locks to make the Opening Day roster, and I'm assuming the Twins will carry eight relievers. That leaves Jorge Alcalá, Justin Topa, Louis Varland, Kody Funderburk, and Eiberson Castellano to compete for those last two spots. While there is a decent chance that each of the eight arms on the bubble pitch for the big-league team sometime this season, only a couple will likely make significant contributions. For the purpose of this exercise, I am locking Woods Richardson into the rotation and putting Castellano on the Opening Day roster. As a reminder, Castellano was a Rule 5 pick from Philadelphia, and leaving him off the roster would mean the Twins would have to offer him back to the Phillies. Moreover, manager Rocco Baldelli had the following to say about Castellano, in a scrum with reporters at Twins spring training in Fort Myers, Fla. “We think Eiberson has real potential, and he's here for a reason. There's a reason why we have not gone this route very often.” Any skipper would say that about a player being brought in under these circumstances, but the salient detail is that Baldelli really hasn't ever had a Rule 5 draftee before. The last time the Twins made a selection, Paul Molitor was still running the dugout, and because of the constraints taking on a Rule 5 guy places on the manager, it seems like something the front office would ask for input on. For those reasons, I think it will take a pretty disastrous spring for him to not make the Opening Day roster. Finally, I think Topa is the most likely to win the last bullpen spot out of camp. So, of the remaining five names whom I'm predicting to be cut from the active roster, who will make an impact in 2025? Spot Starter/“Next Man Up” In the Rotation I don't think there's any real way to predict which of Festa or Matthews will be the primary option to fill in in the rotation. It likely has less to do with spring training and more to do with how each player is doing with the Saints at the time an opportunity opens up, or even where the Saints are in their rotation when an emergent need arises. Also, I don't think you can completely write off Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, or Travis Adams as guys who could debut in 2025. That said, I think Festa showed last year that he is ready for the big leagues, over a longer and stronger sample than Matthews did. Moreover, there is some data from his first spring training appearance suggesting some changes to his delivery and pitch profile were made over the offseason (stay tuned…more to come on that ?). For what it's worth, PECOTA projects Festa as a slightly above-average pitcher, contributing 73 innings across 16 starts while carrying a 4.03 ERA and an 80:28 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Jorge Alcalá Despite dealing with various injuries and inconsistency throughout his career, Alcalá has shown flashes of being a very good reliever. Before imploding in August last season, he carried a 2.93 FIP with a 24.7% strikeout rate and an opponent OPS of just .500. There’s also some strategy to starting him with the Saints: Alcalá is a mere eight days from five years of service time, at which point he can no longer be optioned without his consent. Although he did find his footing in September, the Twins' best strategy may be to open the season with him in St. Paul and make him one of the first calls when a bullpen spot opens. PECOTA projects Alcalá to be an above-average reliever, with a 3.80 ERA across 60 innings. Louis Varland It remains to be seen whether or not Varland will move into the bullpen. Baldelli himself said as much just this week. “We’re not going to sit here and state his permanent role for 2025,” he said. Then, on Tuesday, Varland pitched in an extremely reliever-coded spot in the Twins' game against the Yankees in Ft. Myers. Whether they're ready to say so or not, he's heading to the pen. In theory, at least, his versatility makes him a realistic candidate to contribute heavily this season as a swingman. Whether it's to cover an injury out of the bullpen; to make a spot start when the timing doesn't work out for one of the aforementioned starters; or if he’s brought up to piggyback with Woods Richardson every so often, there will be plenty of opportunity for Varland this season. I could even see something where he's the opener for a bullpen game. He could give the Twins 2-3 innings and allow them to stretch out their bullpen just a bit more. If there was such a thing as a “super-utility pitcher”, Varland in 2025 might just be that. PECOTA labels him as both a starter and “long” man, and projects a 4.35 ERA across 66 innings pitched. While that doesn't scream impact, I think there's plenty of indirect value in having someone who can creatively and sufficiently eat innings for you. I also think there's a chance he's a short reliever, and that his ERA is closer to 2.35 than to 4.35. It may have taken longer than we thought to reach the majors, but Derek Falvey’s pitching pipeline is finally ready to impact the Twins. A team already projected to have one of the best bullpens and one of the best starting trios in baseball also boasts incredible depth. Injuries are guaranteed and underperformance is more than likely, but the Twins are well-equipped to handle those bumps in the road with the sheer number of guys who can make an impact in 2025. Who else will make an impact after failing to crack the Opening Day roster? Is there anyone not currently on the 40-man roster that will impact 2025? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

Thanks for adding more to this. I still think we have to chalk some of it up to not having a lot of time at the position.

Appreciate it!

Yea, he was sort of positionless in the minors and that probably hurt his development a bit. I'll be interested to see him get more seasoning in the OF...seems like he has the traits to be good out there.

These are all good questions. I definitely don't have the answer but would be interested in that data.