Matthew Lenz

What would a world look like where there were no trades, and no free agency? What would the 2025 version of the Minnesota Twins look like? Where would some current Twins players be? Let’s explore this hypothetical world. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images Recently, Bradford Doolittle of ESPN wrote an article ($) that answered these exact questions, wherein he ranked each of the 30 MLB teams after running 10,000 simulations using 2025 player forecasts. Only players originally drafted or signed by a team via international amateur free agency counted toward their ratings. Through his methodology, the Twins ranked 17th overall and third in the American League Central behind the Cleveland Guardians (8th) and Chicago White Sox (14th). This hypothetical version of the Twins consists of nine position players, five starters, and three relievers, and just three are currently on the Twins. Position Players: LaMonte Wade Jr. (1B), Jorge Polanco (2B), Royce Lewis (SS), José Miranda (3B), Mitch Garver (C), Brent Rooker (LF), Byron Buxton (CF), Max Kepler (RF), Luis Arraez (DH) With the exception of Rooker, Buxton, and Miranda, it’s not surprising that this hitter group ranked 17th in Doolittle’s 10,000 simulations. The rest of the names are projected to be roughly average in 2025, which mostly aligns with their most recent seasons. The biggest concern with this lineup would be durability, as Lewis, Polanco, Garver (as a catcher) and Buxton have all suffered their fair share of injuries throughout their careers. If we had to build a bench following the same rules (minus the 10,000 simulations, of course), I’d add Ryan Jeffers at catcher, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Spencer Steer as super-utility options, and Nick Gordon as the fourth outfielder and Buxton insurance. Rotation: José Berríos, Bailey Ober, Luis Gil, Kyle Gibson, Cade Povich Initially, I was pretty underwhelmed by this rotation, but I actually think it has solid depth—despite not having a true “ace”. It’s a bit of a wild card outside of Berríos and Ober, as Gil and Povich are unproven and Gibson is entering his age-37 season. If we were to add a spot starter or long man to this pitching staff, it would have to be David Festa or Zebby Matthews. Bullpen: Griffin Jax, Yennier Canó, Liam Hendriks This bullpen (like the rotation options above) is evidence of just how poorly the Twins drafted and developed pitching for much of the 2010s and 2020s. The most suitable bullpen options beyond the three relief names above are Taylor Rogers, Cole Sands, Michael Tonkin, and Kody Funderburk. Somewhat surprisingly, the pitching staff Doolittle put together ranked 15th in his 10,000 simulations. This hypothetical version of the Twins projects for 80 wins, which is about six fewer than the real Twins are projected for. They would have 30.3% odds to make the playoffs and 0.6% odds to win the World Series. As far as real-life Twins on the active roster, the following players would be sent back to the following organizations: Willi Castro to the Guardians Carlos Correa and Jorge Alcalá to the Houston Astros Christian Vázquez to the Boston Red Sox Austin Martin to the Toronto Blue Jays Pablo López to the Seattle Mariners Joe Ryan to the Tampa Bay Rays Simeon Woods Richardson to the New York Mets Chris Paddack to the Miami Marlins Jhoan Durán to the Arizona Diamondbacks Brock Stewart to the Los Angeles Dodgers Eiberson Castellano to the Philadelphia Phillies That leaves the following players to remain somewhere in the Twins organization: Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee, Edouard Julien, and Michael Helman. This is an interesting exercise, as it provides an opportunity to reflect on transactions that have helped build the 2025 version of the Twins. Some of us think we should never trade prospects, but in that world, the Twins would finish with an average of 80 wins after 10,000 simulations. On the other hand, the Twins have moved some prospects in recent years (Povich, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand) and have a few division titles and a playoff series win to show for it. It surely will be interesting to revisit this exercise in the next five years, when the current wave of Twins prospects turned big-league regulars reach the end of their arbitration years. Which player from the hypothetical Twins do you wish they still rostered? Which one(s) did the Twins make the right call on? Join the conversation in the comments View full article

The American League Central is loaded with top end hitting talent in the Minor Leagues. Get to know the top prospect from each team and how they rank against one another. View full video

The Minnesota Twins are in need of a corner outfielder that can handle left-handed pitching. Right now, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner figure to be the Opening Day corner outfielders but both struggle mightily against left-handed pitching. What do the 2025 ZiPS projections tell us about the future for these two, and should one of them be traded? View full video

Your comment on winning the fans back is fair and interesting. I think that timeframe could be expedited if the next owner invests in the club.

Ahhh Wallner! I even had a second pair of eyes look at it. Thanks for pointing it out...he's being added now.

Huh?

I'm not going to let a month and half of terrible, downright awful baseball takeaway from the rest of the 2024 season. I'm not giving them a moral victory, but they've won the division three times and made the playoffs four times in the last six seasons. 2019 and 2020 didn't have many of the names above, they missed in 2021 and 2022, so I guess the answer to your question is 2023?

Yes, they will but the guys who have been around longer will get more expensive.

'Tis the season where many of the prospect publications update their top 100 lists and team rankings ahead of the upcoming season. Baseball America took it a step further, and named candidates who could be the top prospect a year from now as well as those who could enter the top 100. What does their forecasting tell us about the Minnesota Twins' competitive window? Image courtesy of © Denis Poroy-Imagn Images There is a consensus among rankers that Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall are top-100 guys. Baseball America adds Zebby Matthews at No. 73, while most others either have him outside of the top 100 or didn't include him given his accrued service time in 2024. Looking ahead to 2026, BA named Jenkins as a contender to be the top prospect in baseball, as well as Brandon Winokur and Connor Prielipp as guys to watch for in their top-100 list (our own Jamie Cameron would add 2025 IFA signee, Eduardo Beltre, to that list as well, and he came in for a mention on a similar list by Baseball Prospectus). In short, BA is predicting the Twins to have at least three more players, including two newcomers, on their top 100 a year from now. That's without considering the 2025 MLB Draft, wherein the Twins have three top-55 picks. If we look back at recent history, the Twins have experienced a changing of the guard in the 2020s, as a number of former prospects have reached the big leagues and many of those have established themselves as regular contributors. That list includes: Ryan Jeffers debuting in 2020 Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Griffin Jax, and Trevor Larnach in 2021 Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Cole Sands, Simeon Woods Richardson, Jhoan Durán, and José Miranda in 2022 Edouard Julien in 2023 Brooks Lee, Michael Helman, Jair Camargo, David Festa, Zebby Matthews, DaShawn Keirsey Jr., and Austin Martin in 2024 Regardless of what you think of those players' level of production, it's a developmental win to have that many players debut and stay at the major-league level. Moreover, that core has changed an organization that consistently lost 90 games in the 2010s to a team consistently competing for a playoff spot in the 2020s. In fact, that young core showed so much promise that the Twins shocked the world—okay, mainly Stateside baseball fans—by signing Carlos Correa not once, but twice. That signing, along with acquiring Pablo López, propelled the young core and the entire organization into their first competitive window since the late 2000s. As some of these players begin to enter their arbitration years and with the Pohlads implementing a cap ceiling, it's fair to wonder how long this competitive window might remain open. The latter of those two concerns will, hopefully, go away in the coming months, but we need to temper expectations: new ownership doesn't guarantee more spending. To the former concern, prospect development is hard to predict and rarely linear, but Baseball America’s predictions paint a pretty nice picture for the future of Twins baseball. While you can't solely rely on your best prospects to carry your big-league team, multiple publications rank the Twins as one of the best farm systems in baseball. A bevy of nationally unheralded prospects who have produced in the minors are candidates to make debuts in 2025, including guys like Payton Eeles and Andrew Morris. Although it's safer to temper expectations with prospect development, if the 2020-2024 debut classes have shown us anything, it's that the Twins know how to develop their guys. So while you have a very fair argument to think the “cheap Pohlads” are wasting this competitive window, I’d encourage you to also consider the Twins' latest wave of prospect promotions, along with the up-and-coming group. Pair that optimism with an ownership group who might actually invest in the team, and all of a sudden, the Twins' current competitive window is only in its infancy. View full article

Towards the end of last season, when the Minnesota Twins were in the midst of a historic collapse, Rocco Baldelli had Royce Lewis try his hand at second base. The move was partially due to Lewis' performance at the hot corner (11 errors; 10 throwing), but it was more about the lack of production coming from those at the Keystone, which was a game of mix and match all season. At the time, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reported that Lewis was "apprehensive" with the move across the diamond. In fact, around that same time, he said the following about moving off third: "If you take a baby out of its crib where it’s safe, it’s going to feel a little bit scared. That’s kind of where I’m at right now". Despite those concerns, Dan Hayes of The Athletic reiterated ($$) in November that the Twins and Royce Lewis had a "second shot" at second base this offseason. What was interesting in that update was that Hayes led off by stating that Lewis' agent, Scott Boras, thought he'd be open to the move. Alas, here we are two months later and the latest update from Darren Wilson via the Minnesota Sports with Mackey & Judd podcast is that he's been taking more reps at third than second this offseason. Emphasis on "more", meaning he is still taking reps at second but that seems to be part of the plan to continue mixing and matching at the position, as needed, in 2025. If the roster generally stays the same between now and opening day, what does your starting infield look like? View full rumor

If it was more than one from that group, that would be more expensive than he was a year ago when he was a year younger and a year more controllable. I do agree that one from that group (I would also add Matthews) would be required to get the deal done. After that it's probably Vazquez and another prospect in the 15-30 range.

I'm confused by your statement regarding the Twins winning a bidding war. Are you saying that because you don't think they have the prospect capital to compete with an offer or because they'd be unwilling to match the cost? If it's the former, the Twins have one of the best systems in all of baseball even after a number of graduates over the last few seasons.

You can NEVER have enough pitching. Only three (or four if you count SWR...I don't yet) of those guys have shown the promise to be long time contributors in the bigs. I like Festa and Matthews and think we have a good pipeline in the minors but development is never guaranteed. You don't pass up on a guy like Cease simply because you've got other guys (who are all currently worse than Cease and most don't the upside to be as good) MLB ready or close to it.

This is a good nugget and one I didn't think of. Thank you!

While saying "half" is correct, it feels a little disingenuous when we're talking about the difference of a year. As I prefaced in the article, I used that trade "for reference"..not to say that is what it will cost. That said, his cost will be driven up with multiple teams interested. Regardless of the number of teams interested, there is zero chance the Padres deal him for a "couple of lower level prospects" and Vázquez.

It was just a year ago that he was traded, so a difference for sure but not substantive. It sounds like multiple teams are interested so that is going to drive up his cost, as well. I'd assume that he will cost less than a year ago but not by much.

The Minnesota Twins and San Diego Padres have had equally quiet offseasons, but a recent report suggests the two could tango in what might be a blockbuster deal. Image courtesy of Vázquez: © Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images; Cease: © David Frerker-Imagn Images Dan Hayes and Dennis Lin, both of The Athletic, are reporting that the Twins and Padres “have spoken about a potential trade that would send Christian Vázquez to San Diego.” While a deal isn’t imminent, it is worth noting that this isn’t the first time the Padres have expressed interest in adding the veteran backstop to their club. In fact, they were one of the suitors competing against the Twins for his services two years ago, before he agreed to a three-year, $30-million pact. Despite talks slowing down, I would anticipate the two sides continue to work toward a deal, considering the Padres' need for a primary catcher and the lack of suitable options on the free agent market. While trading Vázquez has been a topic frequently discussed on Twins Daily, the sentiment has generally suggested that he would be dealt as more of a salary dump. On the contrary, Hayes and Lin’s report suggests that the Padres see the 34-year-old as a viable primary option behind the plate. Currently, the Padres have Luis Campusano and Brett Sullivan as the two catchers on their 40-man roster, but also signed Martín Maldanado to a minor-league deal in mid-January. Campusano got the bulk of the reps in 2024, but carried a .642 OPS and produced -0.5 fWAR in 91 games. Sullivan and Maldonado, who appeared in seven and 48 games respectively in 2024, aren’t expected to be productive contributors moving forward. For a team trying to remain a playoff contender and compete against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Padres are even more motivated to shore up one of the most important positions on the diamond. So, if the Padres are actually interested in Vázquez, then what’s in it for the Twins? Dylan Cease. That’s what. No, seriously. Dylan Cease. Well, maybe. According to Hayes and Lin’s report, “the Twins would like to reallocate resources and are among the teams with interest in Dylan Cease.” Cease, who is set to be a free agent following the 2025 season, will make $13.75 million this year and is coming off one of the best years of his career. Across a career-high 189 ⅓ innings, the righty posted a 3.10 FIP with elite strikeout and walk rates and garnered both MVP and Cy Young votes. Since he spent parts of five seasons with the Chicago White Sox, the Twins brass is overly familiar with the 29-year-old's arsenal and skillset. It should go without saying that any deal would require more parts than Vázquez and Cease, and the Twins would likely have to send one of their big-league starters (likely one of their pre-arbitration arms) in any trade package that would net them Cease. For reference, the Padres acquired Cease by sending the White Sox a top-100 pitching prospect, two top-10 organizational prospects, and a replacement-level reliever. Of course, the White Sox organization is in a completely different position than the Twins, but that gives you an idea of what it would cost for the Twins to nab the former sixth-round pick. From a financial perspective, these two teams are an interesting fit. The Twins' self-imposed salary ceiling and potential sale have stopped the team from adding salary. On the other side, the Padres are currently projected to be above the luxury tax threshold, and they're expected to shed salary. Meanwhile, family members of the late owner, Peter Seidler, are in the midst of a legal dispute, further complicating things. Hayes and Lin go on to report that finances are one thing holding up this deal, as the two sides can’t agree on how much of Vázquez’s salary San Diego will absorb. The two sides make a tricky fit, unless a third team gets involved to facilitate things. Acquiring Cease would improve an already good starting rotation for the Twins, even if it cost them one of Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, David Festa, or Zebby Matthews. Cease is a clear upgrade over any of those names. That said, the Twins reportedly aren’t the only party interested in acquiring Cease. The longer they’re in a stalemate with the Padres, the less likely it becomes they will be the team to acquire him in a deal. Do you think the Twins should do what it takes to acquire Cease? View full article

Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach are too similar to be mainstays in the lineup over the long term. Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections for the Minnesota Twins paint a pretty clear picture; it's not hard to decide which one the team should trade. Image courtesy of © John Leyba-Imagn Images Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach being left-handed hitters really isn’t the issue. Rather, while it’s still a relatively small sample, neither player has shown an ability to be remotely serviceable against left-handed pitching. With the Twins' penchant to play matchups, it’s not feasible to have two players that profile so similarly. That would require more than one right-handed-hitting, corner outfield bat on the bench. When it’s all said and done, the Twins are going to need to trade one of the two, and ZiPS projects one to far outperform the other. Szymborski's model projects Wallner to be a valuable slugger in 2025 and over the next three years, with a projected three-year OPS+ 15 points higher than Larnach's. Considering those projections, coupled with the fact that Wallner is the superior defender, the Twins should look to move on from Larnach sooner rather than later. The former first-round pick is coming off a career year, wherein he slashed .259/.338/.434 with 15 home runs and respectable strikeout and walk rates, but ZiPS projects him to fall short of those numbers in 2025. Larnach's not a truly poor hitter. The models like him to be a slightly above-average hitter in 2025 and over the next three years, with 106 and 105 OPS+ marks, respectively. That's a bit weak for a corner outfielder, though. With three years of team control remaining and ZiPS roughly projecting his 2024 season to be the norm from a production standpoint, Larnach's value now is higher than it may ever be again. While there may be more teams interested in a former top prospect entering his age-28 season, the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves are two teams who have specifically identified a need for a left-handed hitting outfielder. With some of the top names that fit this bill (like switch-hitter Anthony Santander, Michael Conforto, and yes, Max Kepler) off the market, the Astros and Braves are left to fight over Jurickson Profar or less attractive options. Given both teams' plans to contend in 2025, and the Astros' preference for a more cost-effective approach, Larnach could be a valuable asset for either club. While I won’t put together specific trade packages, I will identify players from both teams who would be attainable and could help the Twins in 2025. Astros The Astros are $3 million above the CBT and could be looking to dip below that threshold. Larnach, costing $2.1 million in 2025, would be a cost-effective solution. Mauricio Dubon, a classic Falvey/Baldelli (Falvelli??) utility player who can play all around the diamond while being a plus at the plate, will cost $5 million in 2025. While this isn’t a perfect fit (as it wouldn't get the Astros under the CBT threshold and the Twins aren’t looking to add money), it has the framework to help both teams accomplish their goals, whether it be through a larger deal or dealing with other teams. Another roster fit, this time a little closer to 1:1 from a salary standpoint, is right-handed hitting corner outfielder Jake Meyers, which is a need for the Twins whether they move Larnach or not. Braves It’s a little harder to see a deal with the Braves come to fruition that would help the Twins win in 2025. They likely don’t have any cheap bullpen arms available and any available hitter would likely be a downgrade from Larnach. They do have two pre-arbitration utility players in Nick Allen and Eli White, although neither player jumps off the page as anything more than a defensive replacement off the bench. Acquiring either of those players would require the Braves, who don’t have a strong farm system after their top 5 guys, to throw in additional assets for it to make sense for the Twins. Those likely aren’t the only two teams who would be interested in Larnach given his prospect pedigree coupled with his 2024 season and controllability, but those are two that have publicly stated they’re interested in a left-handed hitting outfielder. Bottom line for the Twins: Based on 2024 and his future projections, Larnach’s value is at its highest point, and the cash-strapped Twins need to capitalize on that value now. What are your thoughts on trading Larnach? Would you rather see Wallner dealt? Or neither? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article