Matthew Lenz

Five different Minnesota Twins hitters made their MLB debuts in 2024. Let's look at how they looked, and what their futures with the club might look like. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Austin Martin One of the two returning pieces from José Berríos trade, Martin made the Twins roster out of the gate in 2024 and made his debut by pinch-running in the second game of the season. He’d earn his first start on Easter Sunday, going 0-for-3 at the plate, and wouldn’t get his first hit until Apr. 9 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In all, Martin had four different stints with the Twins this season, slashing .253/.318/.352 in 257 plate appearances across 93 games. He hit one home run, drove in 16 runs, scored 41 times, and stole 7 bases, while splitting time between second base, left field, and center field. The Good Martin showed great plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. He was better than the league average in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, and supplemented that with plus speed and baserunning ability. He managed not to be overpowered by a big-league fastball, while being able to adjust to offspeed stuff, as he produced .308 and .386 wOBAs against those pitch types, respectively. His stat line is dampened by a rough stretch in May and a horrid month of July. Otherwise, he produced at an average-plus clip for a majority of the season. Possibly his most impressive ability was hitting with runners on base, where his numbers were better across the board as compared to his season-long stat line. On the defensive side of the ball, he graded out as having a plus arm in the outfield, showing the ability to hold runners from advancing to extra bases. The Bad Martin will need to improve his ability to hit breaking balls, as he saw a decline in production against those pitch types. While his discipline and contact ability are pluses, his quality of contact was not a strength. He only barreled up two balls across 188 batted-ball events. This isn’t surprising, as power has never been part of his game, but that small of an output (.099 ISO) is going to limit his production and where you can put him in the lineup. While there is value in the ability (and willingness) to play multiple positions, Martin graded out as a poor defender at each of the positions he played, especially in the outfield. The Outlook A deeper dive into Martin’s season might be required to get a true look at where he excels and where he struggles. His monthly splits are wild, ranging from a 154 wRC+ in June across 32 at-bats all the way down to a -7 wRC+ across 30 at-bats in July. Obviously, those samples are all small enough to defy analysis, but they also make that analysis more important to perform, as best we can. Martin showed that he can be a solid but unspectacular contributor at the big-league level, but at this point, his lack of power and ability to play defense make me wonder if he is more of a utility depth piece than a fixture in the Twins lineup over the long term. At just 25 years old, Martin has time for more development and growth in his game, but I think he plays a similar role in 2025. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Brooks Lee The eighth overall pick from the 2022 Draft debuted on Jul. 3, going 2-for-4 with an RBI and a strikeout. He’d go on to earn 175 plate appearances over 47 games, slashing .216/.263./.321 with nine runs scored, three home runs, 27 RBIs, and three stolen bases. The versatile switch-hitter played a mix of second base, third base, and shortstop, grading out as an above-average fielder at third and below average at the two other spots, per FanGraphs's UZR/150 metric. The Good Lee’s ascension through the Twins farm system was impressive, and his dominance at Triple-A St. Paul earned him a regular spot on the big-league roster when injuries created an opening. He has good bat control supported by solid whiff and strikeout rates, plus the ability to hit to all fields and square up the baseball. Albeit in a small sample, Lee did his best work against changeups and cutters, suggesting he's not restricted to sitting on heaters. More impressively, especially given his rookie status, Lee was one of the Twins' best hitters with a man in scoring position, with a .722 OPS. He produced more walks than strikeouts in those situations. The Bad His approach at the plate isn’t “bad,” perhaps, but given his below-average walk rate and above-average chase rate (swings at pitches outside the zone / pitches outside the zone), he could benefit from being more selective at the plate. Moreover, his exit velocity and launch angles aren’t ideal, limiting his power. A slight change in approach could help in those numbers. In his first stint at the big-league level, Lee struggled to produce against four-seamers and sinkers, sporting .470 and .377 OPSes, respectively, while also having trouble connecting with sliders. The Outlook The team still hopes Lee is going to be a fixture in the lineup for years to come, and based on what we saw in a limited sample, he may be best used at third base. We know Royce Lewis can play there, and prefers to play there over second base, but with his injury history, he may be better off at the keystone instead of the hot corner. As seen this year, Lee is likely going to be the “next man up” if (or more probably, when) Carlos Correa misses time due to injury. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: DaShawn Keirsey Keirsey only had 12 plate appearances over five games played in 2024, so there isn't a ton to glean from such a small sample. In those 12 plate appearances, he got his first major-league hit, struck out once, and got plunked once. The Outlook Keirsey was not protected from last year's Rule 5 Draft, but wasn't selected, either. No team believed him a ready big-leaguer for 2024. He responded with a fantastic season for the Saints, setting the team's single-season record for hits by slashing .300/.368/.476 with 14 home runs and 36 stolen bases and boasting solid walk and strikeout rates. He is a phenomenal defensive center fielder, and it may be as soon as next year that we see Byron Buxton start transitioning into a near full-time DH, which would open the door for Keirsey to take over the middle of the Twins outfield for years to come. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Michael Helman Like Keirsey, Helman wasn't protected from the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but went unselected, leaving him in the organization. He responded with a .271/.350/.487 slash line in Triple A, earning his spot in the big leagues when rosters expanded on Sept. 1. He earned his first hit in his MLB debut, and finished the season going 3-for-9 with two doubles, two runs scored, and three strikeouts. The Outlook Projecting Helman’s outlook for the Twins is tough. He's been a solid minor-league utility player over six seasons, but there's a reason he went unprotected last December and he took so long to reach the big leagues. Realistically, he’s nothing more than a Quadruple-A player who will be a good depth piece behind the depth, as long as he’s in the organization. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Jair Camargo Camargo’s road to the big leagues has been even longer than Helman’s, but he’s only 25 years old after being signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015 International Free Agency. Since being included in the Brusdar Graterol-for-Kenta Maeda trade, Camargo has done well in the lower levels of the organization, but has struggled in the upper levels--including a .212/.290/.403 slash line for the Saints in 2024. Being a catcher will take you far, though. He made his MLB debut on Apr. 16, drawing a walk in his first at-bat, but is still in search of his first big-league hit after going 0-fer in six at-bats. The Outlook I think Camargo’s outlook is just slightly more promising than Helman’s, due to him being a catcher and the Twins' organizational depth at the position. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Where do you think Lee lands in the lineup next year? Which of Martin, Helman, Keirsey, and Camargo can carve out valuable bench roles? Speak up in the comments. View full article

The San Francisco Giants have put lefty reliever Taylor Rogers on waivers. The former Minnesota Twins closer would be a welcome addition to a bullpen that has struggled of late. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports The lack of moves at the trade deadline has been well covered at this point. The recent struggles of the Twins bullpen, as a group, have led to some crucial losses over the last two weeks, highlighted by designating their lone deadline acquisition, Trevor Richards, for assignment. Taylor Rogers isn't the pitcher he once was with the Minnesota Twins, but would be more than serviceable as a medium-leverage lefty out of his former team's bullpen. Let's take a look at how he's performed for the Giants this year, and how’d he fit into the Twins bullpen hierarchy. Rogers has been used as a low- to medium-leverage option with the Giants this year, with roughly 90% of his 51 ⅓ innings coming in one of those two situations. He's produced a 2.45 ERA and a sterling 20.6 K%-BB%, but has become a bit more of a fly ball pitcher since his days donning a Twins uniform. His peripherals suggest he’s still a solid reliever, with a 3.44 FIP and a 3.09 SIERA with an elite hard-hit percentage. His sweeper and sinker have both been plus pitches the last two seasons, with run values of 2 and 5, respectively. Of course, the hang up with the Twins will be the fact he is owed a little more than $2 million for the rest of 2024 and $12 million for all of 2025. For reference, despite the solid season, FanGraphs values his production thus far to be worth just $2.1 million…a far cry from the nearly $10 million the Giants have paid him. While that likely counts the Twins out of making a claim, it really shouldn't, given the state of their bullpen and their standing in the race to October. Hypothetically, if the Twins were to get wild and pay up for a middling reliever, he would help bridge the gap in the middle of the Twins bullpen. In a peculiar, maybe meaningless turn of events, Rogers has reverse splits in 2024. While he's always dominated lefties throughout his career, this year, he's allowed a .772 OPS to lefties and a .668 OPS to righties. While that’s not necessarily what the Twins are looking for, their recent bullpen implosions indicate they should be willing to accept anyone who can improve the relief corps. And while Twins manager Rocco Baldelli uses his pitchers (well, almost all his players) situationally, Rogers would be the perfect bridge between the low and high-leverage relievers. For me, he would slot just below the likes of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands, competing with Jorge Alcalá and Caleb Thielbar for medium-leverage opportunities. Like they've done too many times to count, the front office has whiffed on pitchers with question marks in 2024. While this is largely because of the self-imposed salary cap from ownership, reuniting with Rogers would be a no-brainer from productivity and morale standpoints. Unfortunately, ownership has shown over and over again they care more about the bottom line than the morale of the team. Do you think the Twins should add Taylor Rogers? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

Five weeks from the trade deadline, there are a handful of teams in the National League who are on the playoff bubble. Specifically, the Nationals, Giants, and Reds currently find themselves within four games of a playoff spot. Should these teams decide to sell, they have players who could help the Twins win. Image courtesy of © Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Looking at Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system and their projected playoff odds for each team, the Giants (12.1%), Nationals (1.6%) and Reds (5.5%) are all longshots. Coming into the season, the Giants and Reds were expected to be playoff contenders, whereas the Nationals were fully expected to be cellar-dwellers in the NL East. Taking all things into consideration, I’m anticipating the Nationals and Giants to be sellers at the deadline, while the Reds will likely wait until the days leading up to the deadline to make any decisions. San Francisco Giants (39-42) Current Situation: Despite the low playoff odds, the Giants find themselves just three games back of an NL Wild Card spot. They made some splashes last offseason, acquiring Robbie Ray via trade, as well as Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jung Hoo Lee via free agency. Unfortunately, Ray has yet to make a start; Snell has made six ineffective starts while battling injuries; Chapman has been solidly average; and Lee is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Outside of the names, the Giants are top-heavy in talent (Logan Webb, Camilo Doval, among others), but it quickly falls off after that. Players to Watch: Thairo Estrada has two and a half years of team control remaining, and can play multiple positions, although he has only played at the keystone in 2024, which makes a good fit with the Twins platoon-heavy philosophy. Throughout his career, he’s spent time at every position except first base and catcher, while providing average production at the plate and even splits against left- and right-handed pitching. He’s had a bit of a down year, despite batted-ball and plate-discipline metrics around his career norms, but projection systems still see a league-average bat moving forward. Tyler Rogers, twin brother of former Twins reliever Taylor Rogers, has been a very good weapon out of the bullpen and has a year of team control following 2024. The fit is obvious, and Rogers carries an elite 1.3% walk rate and good batted-ball data. The only true submariner in baseball, he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Missing bats isn’t his specialty, but he still gets results, relying on one of the best sinkers in the game. He also throws a slider, which has previously been effective, but has been a bit less so in 2024. Washington Nationals (38-42) Current Situation: It’s surprising to see the Nationals in the hunt, just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, and that can be attributed to one of the better rotations and bullpens in baseball… on the surface. Their top four starters have ERAs of 3.81, 3.13, 2.22, and 3.30, although their expected stats, peripherals, and projection models suggest some negative regression may be around the corner. To a lesser extent, the same could be said for the high-leverage bullpen arms, whereas their offense is one of the worst in the league--with only two qualified batters with a wRC+ above 91. Players to Watch: The Nationals have three solid, right-handed relievers who are controllable through 2025 (Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and Derek Law), not to mention Dylan Floro (…yep…), who is a free agent at season's end. To be honest, I’d be interested in acquiring any of these arms to supplement the Twins bullpen, but in the spirit of the exercise, I am going to keep an eye on Derek Law, specifically. Other than an elite chase rate of 35%, nothing pops off the page, but that hasn’t stopped Law from being a productive medium-leverage arm over the last two season. He managed that even in 2023, pitching half his games in Great American Ballpark. A 15% K-BB% is fine, a 3.58/3.40 FIP/SIERA is fine, and the run values of his various pitches (ranging from 3 to -2) are, well, fine. And that’s the exact type of addition I want them to make in the bullpen. Splash elsewhere. The Nationals have two cheap but uninspiring utility bats with team control through 2025, in Nick Senzel and Ildemaro Vargas. Both of these players have played multiple positions in the outfield and the infield, and each has a roughly league-average wRC+ in 2024. Senzel is better with the bat, and Vargas is better with the glove, but both Baseball Savant profiles are U-G-L-Y. Projection models like Vargas more than Senzel at the plate, but I can’t say I’d be overly thrilled if the Twins pursued either of these options. Cincinnati Reds (37-43) Current Situation: The Baltimore Orioles of the NL came into the season hoping to have a season like the one the actual Orioles are having. Instead, they are six games below .500 and 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Despite playing half their games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, their offense is in the bottom third of the league in runs per game, while their pitching staff has kept them in the hunt. Interestingly, they don’t have a single hitter who will be a free agent at season's end and, across the entire 40-man roster, there are only three players bound for the open market soon. Players to Watch: This is a longshot, because he’s only 26 years old and has four years of team control left, but I wonder if Graham Ashcraft is a “change of scenery” candidate. There is a stark contrast in his home and road splits, including a 25-percent increase in home runs surrendered and an ERA 1.43 runs higher at GABP. On the road, Ashcraft looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, with room to improve if he can increase his extension and develop a plus pitch or two. If all else fails, he'd almost certainly be a good reliever. The more I read on this guy, the more intrigued I am. Ashcraft could almost certainly benefit from one of the better pitching development organization in baseball. Lefty reliever Justin Wilson is one of the three who will be a free agent after the World Series, and is a great buy-low candidate. Expected stats aren’t predictive, but when your ERA is more than two times higher than your xERA, I think we can predict some positive regression. It’s a limited sample, but Savant (along with various projection models) likes Wilson’s under-the-hood data. The only names mentioned here that would be somewhat of a “splash” are Rogers and Ashcraft. The latter is certainly interesting, but if it were me, I’d rather see the Twins make a bigger play in the lineup or rotation and look to acquire less expensive names like Law and/or Wilson. Do you find any of these names intriguing? Did I miss anyone from this group of teams that you’d rather see the team pursue? View full article

While rumors of Kelley Jansen being in the market have been swirling since the offseason, it may have been assumed he was off the market considering the Red Sox unexpected success in 2024. Instead, Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote that rival executives believe "...there could be 'buyer-to-buyer' type trade this year..." While the price tag is hefty in both salary and player capital, the former elite reliever has done exceptional this year sporting a 2.30/2.13 ERA/FIP with a 19.1-percent K-BB and locking down 15/16 save opportunities. He would be an expensive but great addition for any team who needs bullpen help. While relievers are volatile creatures, it's an added bonus that an acquiring team would only be tied to him for this season. Cover photo credit: © Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports View full rumor

UPDATE via MLB Trade Rumors: Royals Prioritizing Bullpen Help Over Outfield Bat

This alone wouldn't, but my take is you can improve the bullpen with a move like this and use the prospect capital to make a splash elsewhere.

Fulmer wasn't great by any means but a 3.70 ERA (Duran's is currently 3.91) in 24 1/3 innings where half of the ER came in two innings seems fairly serviceable to me. TBH that's exactly the type of addition I want for the bullpen...make a bigger "splash" elsewhere.

How would we know that?

100%. Keep the prospect capital and take a flier on a guy!

While I agree with your premise, the low leverage end of our bullpen isn't working and currently are guys that don't have the surface stats or under the hood metrics to think things are going to turn around. There's nobody currently in our minors that would have a large impact on our bullpen.

The low leverage end of the bullpen has been brutal and is continuously being shuttled back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. Obviously, "buy low" indicates the need for some positive regression but couldn't disagree more that these guys wouldn't help bridge the gap between our starters and the high leverage guys.

Recently, we looked at players from the New York Mets whom the Twins could target in a deal. One of those names was Adam Ottavino, whose surface stats are ugly, but peripherals suggest some bad luck and positive regression. Along with Ottavino, let’s look at three more “buy low” relievers available via trade. Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports The Twins need some relief help, but you rarely want to pay for that help. Even acquiring an established, elite reliever like Emmanuel Clase would require more prospect capital than I’m comfortable with, and history shows extreme volatility for anyone who isn’t a top-tier reliever (see Lopez, Jorge). Instead, give me a guy who, like Ottavino, looks like a DFA candidate on the surface but shows some promise “under the hood.” A reliever like that likely costs a low-level prospect years away from making any potential impact. For example, let’s look back at the Jorge Lopez trade, where Cade Povich was a borderline top 30 organizational prospect at high A, Yennier Cano was considered a cast-off, and Juan Nunez was and still is a relatively unknown name. And again, at the time, Lopez was one of the hottest names on the market…a “buy low” guy should theoretically cost far less. So, with all that said, here are three guys I like as buy-low options for our Minnesota Twins. LHP Andrew Chafin (DET) While it’s not common for teams to trade within the division, it’s also not out of the question when you’re talking about relatively low-impact guys. Moreover, the Tigers are not super close to completing, so dealing with Andrew Chafin isn’t likely to come back and bite them in a hypothetical divisional race in the short-term future. Chafin has had a tough go over his last two years after looking like one of the better relievers in the game in for most of the 2017 through 2022 seasons. Since 2023, he’s posted a 4.66 ERA and a 15.9% K-BB rate despite striking out more than a quarter of the batters he has faced and limiting hard contact. His FIP, SIERA, and expected stats tell the story of someone who should have gotten better results over the last two years. Multiple rest-of-season projection systems agree that the 34-year-old lefty is due for some positive regression. Two things that stand out for me as possible reasons for his struggles are poor walk and barrel rates, which I think can somewhat go hand in hand. It’s not far-fetched to believe that a pitcher who is struggling with control finds themselves in unfavorable counts where they need to target the middle of the zone to avoid a walk. A considerable hesitation with Chafin for me is that not even the Milwaukee Brewers could get him on the right track last season. And if they can’t, then maybe the once reliable reliever is just another example of the seemingly unpredictable volatility of the position. RHP Ryan Pressly (HOU) Speaking of unpredictable downfalls, old friend Ryan Pressly might find himself available at the deadline thanks to the Houston Astros surprising struggles so far this season. The former Twins middling reliever turned Astros elite closer is sporting a 4.82 ERA this year in part thanks to an increased walk rate and a BABIP just under .400. While he’s not quite the overpowering strikeout arm he once was, he still throws the chair at an above average 28.3-percent of batters, and is still very good a limiting the long ball. Throughout his Astros career, Pressly has been know to have one of the best sliders in the game but that same pitch has been largely ineffective in 2024 despite having much of the same spin rate and movement profile.It also looks like the 35-year-old relieve has toyed with a sinker this year, which has been a point of emphasis for some Twins pitchers, and a reunion could bode well to establish that pitch. The hang-up with Pressly is the prorated $14,000,000 salary, but a mutual option for 2025 may make that roughly $5,000,000 amount an easier pill to swallow. RHP Tyler Kinley (COL) Unlike the previous names mentioned, the underlying metrics and projection systems aren’t a big fan of a bounce back for the Colorado Rockies match-up based closer. But he makes my list because his slider, which let him down in 2024, has a history of being practical and gives hitters a different look than they’re used to. In addition to his slider, his mid 90’s fastball showed promise in a limited sample in 2022 but has been a bad pitch for him in the two years since. Developing a sinker and teaching Kinley to create more extension, where he is currently in the third percentile of all pitchers, could turn this into an average or better pitch to pair with a good slider. Lastly, moving away from Coors Field would help the 33-year-old righty, an extreme fly ball pitcher. While Kinley would be a bit more of a project, he is under team control through 2026 and his totally salary accumulates to less than $9,000,000 if he were to stay with the team for the next two plus seasons. Given the amount of work it would take to make him effective, I think the Twins could get him for very cheap. To be taken seriously, the Twins must make multiple moves at the deadline, but making a “splash” add to the bullpen isn’t the move. Instead, they need to use their prospect capital to improve the lineup or even rotation, and take a flier on a lesser commodity for the bullpen. What are your thoughts on the names above? Is there another “buy-low” candidate you’d be interested in the club taking a chance on? Join me in the comments below! View full article

Lately, we've been covering teams who the Twins could make a deal with to make up ground and win the division. Or, at the very least, stay at the top of the Wild Card standings. Well, assuming they will be buyers, they are not the only AL Central team looking for the same results. Per The Windup Podcast and shared by MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals GM (J.J. Picollo) revealed that the Royals will be in search of bullpen and utility depth. The Royals bullpen ranks near in the bottom third of the league in WAR, ERA, K rate, and BB rate. While we think the Twins are in need of bullpen help, the Royals have a far greater need but don't have the farm system to match the asking price of some of the power arms that may be available in a month. On the offensive end, the Royals are similar to the Twins in that they love to play matchups and splits. While they need OF help specifically, Picollo noted that they're looking for utility bats that can deepen their bench and fit with their matchup based philosophy. Unlike the bullpen, the Twins and Royals likely won't in the market for the same offensive additions in the trade market. View full rumor

Idk why but I've totally talked myself into Manaea

I agree with you and know I'm being unreasonable with my comment about their recent trades, but it's been a hard pill to swallow lately haha

We've seen what this offense is capable of. With how it's built, there is going to be the peaks and valleys...what's to say a peak doesn't come in October and they make a run?

I definitely agree with you on JD Martinez but, while Nelly Cruz did well for us, I just don't think it's realistic with his specific roster construction.