Matthew Lenz

As the postseason was set to get underway, MLB.com released a graphic and article showing how the playoff teams were built breaking down the players into one of three groups: free agent, trade/waiver, or homegrown. Let's see how our Minnesota Twins compare. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images The graphic below from MLB.com makes for an interesting exercise, as it didn't focus on payroll but rather the production each player provided (bWAR) and how each team acquired that player. We see that free agency played a relatively large role in constructing the NL playoff teams, whereas AL teams are generally more likely to be internally developed. That said, based on the size of each section within each teams bar chart you can pretty easily decipher the big market teams with seemingly an endless amount of payroll (Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies) versus the smaller market clubs that rely more heavily on homegrown talent (Brewers, Tigers, Royals). Like it or not, the Twins fit the latter group which places an added emphasis on their ability to identify and develop talented players via the draft or international free agency. So, how were the 2024 Minnesota Twins built? As noted above, the data collected is a player bWAR based on projected postseason rosters. I included the following players for the Twins calculations: Position Players (13): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers, Carlos Santana, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer, and Austin Martin Pitchers (13): Pablo López, Bailey Ober, David Festa, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Louie Varland, Ronny Henriquez, Michael Tonkin, Jorge Alcalá, and Zebby Matthews Grouping the players was mostly straightforward, but I did divide Durán, Alcalá, and Martin’s bWARs evenly between trade/waiver and homegrown since each spent multiple years in the Twins Minor League system. You could argue that Simeon Woods Richardson should have made the roster but he was pretty bad down the stretch and just seemed out of gas so I opted for an actual reliever. Additionally, while Larnach, Miranda, and Wallner didn't play in the last series of the year and were each placed on the 10-day IL, I still wanted to include them in this exercise to have a more realistic picture of how the 2024 Minnesota Twins were built. Unsurprisingly, the largest section of the Twins bar chart comes from homegrown talent and, more specifically, the draft. Due to Max Kepler’s injury, none of the 63.64% homegrown bWAR came via International Free Agency. The next biggest section is the Free Agent group (26.52%) of Correa, Santana, Castro, Vázquez, and Thielbar followed by the “Trade/Waiver” group (9.85%). The Twins have always been an organization who has relied on a strong farm system to keep them competitive and relevant. One way or another, the players in the farm system help contribute to the major-league roster through their actual production once they reach the Bigs, or through their perceived value on the trade market if a team looks to bolster their MLB roster. And sometimes they do both, as is the case with former Twins utility Luis Arraez. The Twins signed Arraez via International Free Agency, helped him develop into the first Twins batting champion since Joe Mauer, and then flipped him for Pablo López. While López isn’t a homegrown talent by definition, it was the Twins ability to identify and develop homegrown talent that eventually brought him to the Twins. This breakdown just further demonstrates the importance of being able to identify and develop talent to create a sustainable product at the big league level. Yes, making splashy trades and signing big name free agents is fun and is a route to success for some, we have to be realistic and remember that's not how the Twins have nor will find success. View full article

The Twins announced a broadcast deal for a direct to consumer streaming via MLB. Here's what we (think) we know and what you can likely expect from the broadcast in 2025. View full video

A total of 31 pitchers took the bump for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. Let's take a look at which pitches graded out the worst using FanGraphs Pitching+ metric. Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images If you need to review with Pitching+ is, I’d direct you to my previous piece, where I wrote about the best-graded pitches from the 2024 season. I’ll use the same parameters for this article: In order for a Twins pitcher’s offering to make the list, they needed to throw at least 20 innings for the club, end the season in the organization, and have thrown the pitch itself at least 250 times for relievers or 400 times for starters. Now that the constraints have been set, let's look at the worst pitches for Twins hurlers from the 2024 season. #5: Bailey Ober's Fastball Bailey Ober threw his fastball a total of 1,028 times, with a Pitching+ grade of 96 in 2024; that is a bit lower than his 2023 mark of 99. The effectiveness also saw a steep decline, as the pitch went from a very good Statcast-estimate Run Value of 6 in 2023 down to 1 in 2024. Opposing hitters teed off on the pitch, with a 47.2% hard-hit rate, a .506 slugging percentage, and 12 home runs. While the results weren’t pretty in 2023, they weren’t quite that bad. Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher, who lives dangerously by preferring to throw his sub-92 mile-per-hour fastball up in the zone. While elite extension and above-average induced vertical break are positive characteristics, the preferred location and pitch profile leave very little room for error if you miss your spot. In short, the “stuff” metrics of the pitch aren’t good enough to leave the pitch in the middle of the zone. Study the heat map above, and you'll not that Ober's misses tended to be in that direction, toward the heart of the zone, rather than up above it. #4 and #3: Jhoan Duran’s Fastball and Splitter (Splinker?) These next two pitches have me sweatin’ a bit, especially considering Duran’s rollercoaster ride of a second half and the money he’ll be due in arbitration. Duran’s fastball and splitter both grade out as a 95 Pitching+ and, especially for his fastball, the results seem to back up the grade. In 2023, both pitches earned above-average grades and got great results, so what happened to them in 2024? The fastball dropped a tick in velo and appears to be more “flat” than in 2023, albeit with more arm-side run. Opposing hitters handled the pitch with a .296 batting average and .408 slugging percentage, yet the spin, contact rate and batted-ball data remained similar or even improved slightly in 2024. The splitter/sinker also saw a slight velocity drop, but its spin data and movement profile almost mirrored the 2023 version of the pitch. Results-wise, this pitch got the job done in 2024, with hitters managing only a .237 average and a .362 SLG, but the contact data regressed, resulting in a run value drop of 7 runs. While a deeper dive would be needed to try and get to the bottom of this conundrum, the answer may be as simple as: opposing hitters just know how to beat Jhoan Duran. #2: Joe Ryan's Splitter Joe Ryan was having a very successful season prior to his injury, and that was in part due to opposing hitters' struggles against his splitter. That said, a Pitching+ grade of 94 suggests that may not be sustainable over a longer stretch. Or maybe it could? One way to counter a weak pitch is through pitch sequencing and having a repeatable motion. Excelling in those aspects leads to a concept called “tunneling”. Tunneling is what happens when, regardless of the type of pitch, your delivery, motion, release point, and initial ball flight remain the same, not tipping the hitter off to the type of pitch by throwing the ball down a “tunnel”. The longer the ball takes the same path toward the batter before spin and gravity take over, the less likely they’ll be able to identify and do damage against the pitch. Where Ryan’s splitter doesn’t grade out well, it’s the pitch mix and sequencing that allow it to be successful. #1: Simeon Wood Richardson’s Fastball The rookie righty’s fastball is yet another example of a Pitching+ grade that doesn’t match its results. With a grade of 88, you might expect the pitch to be largely ineffective, but instead, it’s his top offering from a quantity and quality perspective. He threw the pitch 924 times in 2024, resulting in a Run Value of 9 thanks to above-average extension and induced vertical break. When thrown high in the zone, these create a very difficult pitch to hit, as you can see in the diagram below showing the hitters' whiff rate by zone. The issue with Woods Richardson’s fastball is that when he does miss his spot, it becomes a very hittable pitch, which led to opposing hitters batting .258 with a 41.8% hard-hit rate. If there is one thing to take away from both of these articles, it’s to understand that being a successful pitcher is about more than “velo” and “stuff”. It’s a blend of those things, combined with locating, sequencing, and a myriad of other factors, like repeatable delivery and understanding the hitter's weaknesses. As we’ve learned, pitches that don’t grade out well can still be effective, and pitches that do grade out well can still get knocked around. Pitching and pitch-calling is a beautiful art. View full article

On Thursday, the Twins released a statement indicating they’re exploring selling the organization. While most everyone’s initial reaction will be to jump for joy, let’s pump the brakes on celebrating too much before knowing the facts. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images For the second time in 2024, a Major League Baseball organization is up for sale. You might remember that the Baltimore Orioles sold earlier this year, in what was just the “fifth time since 2013 that a control ownership stake in an MLB team was sold”, according to Sportico. The previous four sales were the New York Mets in 2020, the Kansas City Royals in 2019, the Florida Marlins in 2017, and the Seattle Mariners in 2016. All that said, there were also recent instances of organizations exploring selling that never actually came to fruition. In April of 2022, the Washington Nationals were the 12th-most valuable team in baseball, at $2 billion, and the organization was put up for sale by the Lerner family. According to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, the Lerners were unable to find an offer at the price they wanted, and they pointed to the uncertainty surrounding the “most important revenue stream”: television. Sound familiar? Just a couple months earlier in 2022, Arte Moreno announced he was exploring selling the Angels ($2.2-billion valuation, 9th in MLB) before pulling them off the market less than a year later and even more recently reiterating his intention to keep the team. Similarly to the Lerners, his comments at the end-of-season media scrum seem to indicate that he hadn’t received an offer that met his asking price. That’s all to say, just because the Twins are for sale, doesn’t mean they’ll find someone willing to pay the Pohlads' asking price. Forbes valued the Twins at "only" (relatively speaking) $1.46 billion back in March, good for 21st in all of baseball, but they also have uncertainty surrounding the long-term solution of their revenue from TV. But, what if they successfully sell the team? That automatically means a bigger payroll in 2026 and beyond, and World Series rings, right? Right?! Well, to the second part of that question, have you seen the Orioles, Mets, Royals, Marlins, or Mariners win a World Series since their respective sales? In fact, the Mets are the only team to make any semblance of a postseason run, and that’s happening as I write this, four years later. Now, have those sales led to a bigger payroll and more wins? Before diving in, let’s talk about the Orioles. Their sale was too recent to make any definitive statements on the question above. What I will point out is, they were one of the best teams in baseball with a very, very promising homegrown and young (read: cheap) core, and did attempt to bolster their roster by completing seven trades ahead of the trade deadline. While the moves didn’t pan out, new ownership allowed the front office to be aggressive at the deadline and add payroll, which didn’t really happen in 2023. Okay, let's dig in. The data above shows the wins and payroll from the year prior to the organization’s sale through two years after the organization’s sale. Due to the Mets and Royals being impacted by the 2020 COVID year, I extrapolated their wins over 162 games using their 60-game winning percentage. I also added where each team's payroll ranked for that particular season. The Mets are a bit of an outlier, here because their owner, Steve Cohen, invests in his team like almost any fan would, with a staggering payroll increase in a short timeframe. That said, it took until this season for the investment to pay off in the form of a playoff run. The Royals are a decent comparison to the Twins in terms of the size of the market and, to a lesser extent, their payroll. You’ll notice that things got worse shortly after the sale, before they got better--as the Royals are now in the midst of their first postseason since new ownership took over. Kansas City wasn't in quite the same situation as the Twins are, though, in that they were less competitive before the sale than the Twins have been recently and in that they knew they would be pursuing a new ballpark. The Twins, on the other hand, come with Target Field, a young, state-of-the-art facility. The Marlins and Mariners are good comparisons to the Twins in terms of the size of the market and the competitiveness of the teams at the time of the sale. Similarly to the Royals, neither team's win total or payroll ranking changed dramatically in the years following the sale. Moreover, both team have just a single postseason series victory since the sale of their teams. I’m not making any definitive statements here; that’s kind of the point. While you may be excited with the Pohlad’s intentions, there is no guarantee a sale will be finalized and, if it does, there is no guarantee more payroll, wins, and World Series rings will follow. In fact, recent history suggests you should expect more of the same--unless, a cohort of Twins Daily content creators scrape up enough cash to buy the team, that is. View full article

A total of 31 pitchers took the bump for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. Let's take a look at which of their particular weapons graded out the best, using FanGraphs's Pitching+ metric. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images From FanGraphs glossary, “Pitching+, is a model that uses the physical characteristics (Stuff+), location (Location+), and count of each pitch to try to judge the overall quality of the pitcher’s process.” As you’ll see later in this article, a good Pitching+ grade doesn't always correspond to good results, but it's a valuable guide to pitch quality. For a Twins pitcher’s offering to make the list, they needed to throw at least 20 innings for the club, end the season in the organization, and have thrown the pitch itself at least 250 times for relievers or 400 times for starters. While those were the thresholds identified by FanGraphs, it's worth noting that if it weren’t for the minimum pitch count parameters, this article would solely be about Griffin Jax. His slider, curveball, changeup, and fastball were the top four pitches from the Twins pitching staff. Alas, the constraints have been set, and with that, let's look at the best pitches from the 2024 season. #1 Griffin Jax’s Slider (Sweeper) Jax’s slider earned a Pitching+ grade of 125, and he threw the pitch 400 times. The pitch has not only been his best offering since his 2022 breakout, but is one of the best pitches in all of baseball, accruing a run value of 20. In 2024, opposing batters hit .216, slugged .273, and whiffed a whopping 45.3% of the time, according to Baseball Savant. At over 3,000 rotations per minute (rpm), the pitch regularly had anywhere from 12 to 18 inches of glove-side movement. #2 Griffin Jax’s Fastball At an average velocity of 97.0 mph and with above-average vertical movement, Jax’s fastball graded out at a 113 Pitching+. This was his go-to offering against left-handed batters, who batted .167 and slugged .262 versus the offering. But that’s not to suggest that righties could handle the pitch, either. They batted a measly .143, but did have a little more pop with a .343 slugging percentage. Like his slider, this is one of the better pitches in all of baseball. #3 Simeon Woods Richardson’s Changeup How does a pitch with a 113 Pitching+ also have a run value of -14 and an opponent slugging percentage of .622? For starters, Woods Richardson may want to stop throwing the pitch to righties, who had seven extra-base hits (including five home runs) against the 83-mph offering. He may also want to learn how to “pull the string,” as his vertical drop on the pitch is 2.3 inches less than comparable pitches, which lead to hitters taking advantage of middle-middle or middle-in offerings. Brooks Baseball provides us with the slugging percentages by zone location from last season, and you can see the lower he works, the more effective his changeup becomes. I’d be interested to see the lower third of the zone divided into sixths. While the teams appear to tee off on the pitch even when it’s low within the strike zone, the pitch's contour map on Baseball Savant makes me think a lot of that success is a result of the pitch being left closer to middle-middle than middle-low. #4 Caleb Thielbar’s Slider Thielbar definitely took his lumps in 2024 and, despite a Pitching+ of 111, his slider is partly to blame. Like Woods Richardson’s changeup, we have another pitch that grades out well, but for which the results don’t match: Opposing hitters batted .302 and slugged .434, despite generating a whiff rate of 30.7%. Naturally, this makes me question the location and handedness splits, where we find that he really grooves the pitch to right-handed batters. Albeit in a fairly limited sample, righties destroyed the pitch with a .571 batting average, and Brooks Baseball shows that he often left the pitch over the middle of the plate. That's not a recipe for success, especially when you’re facing an opposite-handed hitter, and definitely not how the 37-year-old wanted to end his tenure with the Twins or enter free agency. #5 Jorge Alcala’s Slider Thankfully, another plus pitch (111 Pitching +) got results to match the data in 2024, to the tune of a .190 opponent batting average and .323 opponent slugging. Moreover, Alcala generated a whiff rate of 32.6% and 31 strikeouts over 360 pitches. The pitch doesn’t have a lot of vertical movement, but does have above-average glove-side break, at 3.6 inches on Brooks, and the improvement in production may be due to an increase in velocity of almost two miles per hour while maintaining his spin rate from previous seasons. What started out as a just-for-fun exercise has turned into more of a project, trying to make sense of why a pitch that grades out so well doesn't always get those results. What are your thoughts on the discrepancy between a pitcher's Pitching + grade and the actual results? View full article

As a preview to the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook--available exclusively to Caretakers as a series of in-depth articles on the site, this year--let’s take a look at the Minnesota Twins' biggest roster needs heading into the 2024-2025 offseason. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images It's easy to forget that the Minnesota Twins were a playoff-caliber team for the vast majority of the 2024 season. For better or worse, they have the option to run it back with almost the same team in 2025--with the exception of Carlos Santana, who will trundle back out into free agency. While the organization is headed into another offseason with a self-imposed salary cap and a TV rights situation that promises more long-term than immediate value, they are in a position to be a playoff contender even if they were to make smallish changes. That said, they also have the opportunity to repurpose some of that "cap space” to address some of the shortcomings of their 2024 team, by making smart arbitration decisions and exploring the trade market. Let’s look at the top three needs for the team, roughly six months away from first pitch at Busch Stadium next March. Tender or Replace Willi Castro The most difficult arbitration call for Derek Falvey is to determine if they can afford Willi Castro, whom MLB Trade Rumors projects to receive $6.2 million via that process next season. The super-utility man is worth well more than that figure, and given his contributions to the big-league club over the last two seasons, it’s critical that the Pohlads look under their couch cushions to keep the fan favorite. If the Twins don’t find a way to keep their 2024 All-Star, then it will be crucial for them to find his replacement, and while they do have some internal options, they likely wouldn’t come with nearly the same level of production. Resolve the Christian Vázquez Problem Another decision that’s about the dollars and cents, rather than the value of the player, and this may be the route the Twins go to retain Willi Castro. Vázquez remains a very good defensive catcher and a decent option to split time with Ryan Jeffers, but a 60 wRC+ makes it hard to justify the $10 million salary within a payroll lacking wiggle room. Moreover, the Twins have an internal option in Jair Camargo, who can spell Jeffers throughout the season--although this move would likely require him to take on a bigger role than they've envisioned for him. Otherwise, they do have the option to explore a cheaper backstop in free agency, but only if they can move Vázquez's money. Re-tool the Bullpen It's hard to capture this properly, in numbers. For the season, the Twins had the fifth-most WAR from relievers, according to FanGraphs, despite being 16th in innings pitched. All year, though, and especially down the stretch, the bullpen just felt… unreliable. Jhoan Durán looked very human, and at one point or another, almost every bullpen arm had a tough stretch. While that is somewhat expected with such a volatile position, the Twins need to prioritize finding arms to buttress the back end of the bullpen. What are your needs ahead of the 2025 season? Are there specific arbitration or trade decisions that you’d make? Anyone realistic you’re targeting in free agency? Let us know in the comments and stay tuned for more in depth coverage in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook! View full article

The last two months of the Minnesota Twins' season was, to borrow a phrase, a total system failure. While everyone has a part in the collapse, we’re going to look at how the infielders contributed down the stretch. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images This piece continues our Ripple Effects series, digging into the multiple factors that led to the Twins' disappointing finish and their interactions with one another. For more, see Matthew Taylor's piece about the self-defeating decision to slash payroll; Gregg Masterson's on the way the team's existing payroll commitments conflict with a reduction like this one; and Eric Blonigen's breakdown of the team's failure to make meaningful, trusting connections with their fan base over the last year. For the purpose of this exercise, we are going to look at the contributions (or, errr, lackthereof) from the five infield positions as a group starting on Aug. 18th, through the end of the season. It's on that date that the Twins started the day 70-53 and stood just two games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central. At that time, they were firmly in an AL Wild Card spot. You know what happened next, but let's talk about a particular part of what happened next. We’ll start by looking at how the infield group impacted the offense, before diving into their fielding metrics. Struggles At The Plate While there were bright spots within the group (namely Carlos Santana, Kyle Farmer and the little bit of Carlos Correa we actually saw), the infield unit batted a putrid .221/.284/.340, good for a 77 wRC+. To make matters worse, of the 785 plate appearances the group accrued, almost 52% came while hitting in the top half of the lineup, and just over 40% came with runners on base. Putting it plainly, in the most crucial points at the most crucial time of the season some of Minnesota's most critical hitters didn't meet the moment--over and over again. Christian Vázquez wasn't brought in via free agency in 2023 because of his ability at the plate, but a .426 OPS with a 16:2 K:BB ratio is inexcusable, especially considering that he and Ryan Jeffers continued to evenly split time behind the plate while Jeffers was producing at a league-average clip. What's worse is that, across 24 plate appearances with runners on base, the 34-year-old veteran struck out as much as he put the ball in play. Jose Miranda, who spent time at both infield corners, didn't register a walk across 55 plate appearances to close out the season. Miranda spent the first four months of the season as arguably the Twins' best hitter, then went pear-shaped for the final two months--and especially the last 39 games, wherein he had only two extra base hits and carried a wRC+ of 43. Unsurprisingly, his hard-hit rate of 18.6% was one of the worst on the team. It's hard to pin a lot of blame on the rookie Brooks Lee, who played all around the diamond except first, given his lack of experience and the fact he was returning from injury. In his first playoff push, however, the 23-year-old used 66 at-bats to generate a 46.4% ground ball rate and a 23.2% hard hit rate while only walking twice. Turns out “just put the ball in play” isn't an end-all, be-all solution to hitting woes. Who knew? I don't know what happened to the 2023 version of Edouard Julien, but what we saw in the final 39 games really just encapsulated his 2024 campaign. Things went so poorly for him that I can't even say I was surprised or disappointed by the last month and a half of the season. Instead, the lifeless at-bats and shoddy defense at the keystone were just… expected. You could see him carrying the weight of his own struggles around the field with him, unable to win the mental battles that make the physical ones even reachable. Willi Castro has to get some blame too, because he had 75 plate appearances across a smattering of games on the dirt in the final weeks. The Twins' most valuable player (from a marginal dollars per win perspective) over the last two years mustered a slash line of .180/.284/.262 and a wRC+ of 61, although he did walk nine times despite the low OBP. The last 39 games were one protracted slump for Royce Lewis, who had the worst stretch of his young career. His strikeout rate ballooned to 25.3%, and his OPS plummeted to .478. His ability to handle fastballs came and went all season, but he hit rock bottom in September, where he had a .181 wOBA against the offering. The guy who has come through in a myriad of clutch moments in his short time with the Twins had just two hits in high-leverage situations, a double and a home run. The old adage tells us that hitting is contagious. So, it would seem, is not hitting, and the team's hype man is a major reason the Twins season ended on Sept. 29. Defensive Dissonance As a group, the infield defense was a strength for most of the season. As you might suspect, that wasn't the case in September. That may be no more evident than seeing that opponents reached base at a .316 clip on ground balls over the final six weeks, compared to .252 prior to Aug. 18. Looking at Outs Above Average (OAA) for the month of September, Carlos Santana graded out as the only plus defender; the rest of the infielders combined for -12 OAA. For reference, the same group combined for 11 OAA for the first five months of the season. Lastly, while FIP reflects the defense of the entire team, it's worth noting that the pitching staff went from the sixth-best FIP up to Aug. 18 to 15th through the rest of the season. Given their inability to trust the fielders behind them, one can assume the infield played a sizable role in that discrepancy. The Great Collapse of 2024 may not just be the worst in organizational history, but has to be up there in Minnesota sports history. While everyone played a role, and the spotlight has been on ownership and the bullpen, the infielders also need to be held accountable for their inability to perform when it mattered most. View full article

MLB Trade Rumors released their arbitration projections, and of the 13 players eligible, the Twins have five tough decisions to make to fit within the self-imposed salary cap. View full video

The two midseason additions to the starting rotation are twin points of light in the dreary night of the looming offseason for Minnesota. What can we take away from each of their debut seasons? Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images David Festa Festa accelerated through the organization, making his MLB debut on Jun. 27 after holding a 4.03 ERA / 4.00 FIP over 60 ⅓ innings in St. Paul, with an impressive 24.7% K-BB rate. Once he made it to Minneapolis, he never looked back, throwing another 64 ⅓ innings with a 4.90 ERA / 3.76 FIP, striking out fewer hitters but also walking fewer than he did with the Saints (19.5% K-BB). The Good Festa looks to fit well within the mold of this regime. He's only intermittently overpowering, but can be deceptive with elite extension and two strong secondaries. In a small sample, roughly a third of a season, Festa’s slider accrued a run value of 5, held hitters to a .249 wOBA, and yielded a whiff percentage near 30%. He locates his changeup really well, burying it low and inside to righties or outside to lefties, and it therefore generated a near-40% whiff rate and a 30.2% hard-hit rate. In addition to a FIP more than a run better than his ERA, his SIERA of 3.58 suggests better days ahead for the 24-year-old righty. The Bad While he mostly located his change really well, when he missed, it usually ended up in extra bases. Four of the nine home runs he gave up came on the changeup, which resulted in a -3 run value for the offering. Similarly, he struggled to locate his fastball, which had a -4 run value and a .411 opponent wOBA. He often left it up in but not above the zone. As of right now, “ignore the slider and mash the fastball” is going to be the headline of his scouting report, until he can locate his heater more consistently and with a finer touch. The Outlook Festa is undoubtedly a top-four arm in the Twins rotation heading into the 2025 season, and given his current arsenal and ability, that might be the most realistic long-term outlook for him. That said, if he’s able to improve the velocity and/or command of his fastball, he might go from Joe Ryan Lite to Ryan 2.0, and establish himself as a top arm in the rotation and across Major League Baseball. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Zebby Matthews Matthews, the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was another quick riser, starting the year in high-A and ending it with the Twins. His first taste of the big leagues was a sour one, though, as he only accrued 37 ⅔ innings and wore an ugly 6.69 ERA / 5.71 FIP. Fifteen of his 28 earned runs came in five innings across two starts. Remove those from the game log, and the ERA drops to 3.75 with a great strikeout rate and elite walk rate. There's still cause for optimism here. The Good I’d be remiss not to start with his impressive control. Over 134 ⅔ innings in 2024 across all levels, he allowed just 18 walks. While we can’t totally ignore the two treacherous starts, those two are really skewing most of his results, as they represent roughly an eighth of all his innings in the majors. He consistently showed flashes of a top-of-the-rotation arm, with pitch models especially liking his slider and curveball and his ability to locate each of those pitches and his fastball. The Bad Although he only threw his changeup about 8% of the time, it is far and away the worst pitch in his arsenal, grading out below average in Stuff+ and Location+. He’s been susceptible to the long ball in his short pro career, and his fastball, in particular, was responsible for five of the 11 home runs he gave up with the Twins. The Outlook Matthews and Festa are very similar in my eyes, as they’ll both start the year in the 2025 rotation and likely are mid-rotation pieces in the long run. Given Matthews's ability to limit walks and the fact that he has multiple plus offspeed offerings, I would bet he ends up being the slightly better arm of the two. ZIPS doesn’t not have a three-year projection for Matthews. Do you believe more in Festa or Matthews? Which would you give a more secure place in next year's rotation to? Sound off in the comments. View full article

Five different Minnesota Twins hitters made their MLB debuts in 2024. Let's look at how they looked, and what their futures with the club might look like. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Austin Martin One of the two returning pieces from José Berríos trade, Martin made the Twins roster out of the gate in 2024 and made his debut by pinch-running in the second game of the season. He’d earn his first start on Easter Sunday, going 0-for-3 at the plate, and wouldn’t get his first hit until Apr. 9 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In all, Martin had four different stints with the Twins this season, slashing .253/.318/.352 in 257 plate appearances across 93 games. He hit one home run, drove in 16 runs, scored 41 times, and stole 7 bases, while splitting time between second base, left field, and center field. The Good Martin showed great plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. He was better than the league average in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, and supplemented that with plus speed and baserunning ability. He managed not to be overpowered by a big-league fastball, while being able to adjust to offspeed stuff, as he produced .308 and .386 wOBAs against those pitch types, respectively. His stat line is dampened by a rough stretch in May and a horrid month of July. Otherwise, he produced at an average-plus clip for a majority of the season. Possibly his most impressive ability was hitting with runners on base, where his numbers were better across the board as compared to his season-long stat line. On the defensive side of the ball, he graded out as having a plus arm in the outfield, showing the ability to hold runners from advancing to extra bases. The Bad Martin will need to improve his ability to hit breaking balls, as he saw a decline in production against those pitch types. While his discipline and contact ability are pluses, his quality of contact was not a strength. He only barreled up two balls across 188 batted-ball events. This isn’t surprising, as power has never been part of his game, but that small of an output (.099 ISO) is going to limit his production and where you can put him in the lineup. While there is value in the ability (and willingness) to play multiple positions, Martin graded out as a poor defender at each of the positions he played, especially in the outfield. The Outlook A deeper dive into Martin’s season might be required to get a true look at where he excels and where he struggles. His monthly splits are wild, ranging from a 154 wRC+ in June across 32 at-bats all the way down to a -7 wRC+ across 30 at-bats in July. Obviously, those samples are all small enough to defy analysis, but they also make that analysis more important to perform, as best we can. Martin showed that he can be a solid but unspectacular contributor at the big-league level, but at this point, his lack of power and ability to play defense make me wonder if he is more of a utility depth piece than a fixture in the Twins lineup over the long term. At just 25 years old, Martin has time for more development and growth in his game, but I think he plays a similar role in 2025. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Brooks Lee The eighth overall pick from the 2022 Draft debuted on Jul. 3, going 2-for-4 with an RBI and a strikeout. He’d go on to earn 175 plate appearances over 47 games, slashing .216/.263./.321 with nine runs scored, three home runs, 27 RBIs, and three stolen bases. The versatile switch-hitter played a mix of second base, third base, and shortstop, grading out as an above-average fielder at third and below average at the two other spots, per FanGraphs's UZR/150 metric. The Good Lee’s ascension through the Twins farm system was impressive, and his dominance at Triple-A St. Paul earned him a regular spot on the big-league roster when injuries created an opening. He has good bat control supported by solid whiff and strikeout rates, plus the ability to hit to all fields and square up the baseball. Albeit in a small sample, Lee did his best work against changeups and cutters, suggesting he's not restricted to sitting on heaters. More impressively, especially given his rookie status, Lee was one of the Twins' best hitters with a man in scoring position, with a .722 OPS. He produced more walks than strikeouts in those situations. The Bad His approach at the plate isn’t “bad,” perhaps, but given his below-average walk rate and above-average chase rate (swings at pitches outside the zone / pitches outside the zone), he could benefit from being more selective at the plate. Moreover, his exit velocity and launch angles aren’t ideal, limiting his power. A slight change in approach could help in those numbers. In his first stint at the big-league level, Lee struggled to produce against four-seamers and sinkers, sporting .470 and .377 OPSes, respectively, while also having trouble connecting with sliders. The Outlook The team still hopes Lee is going to be a fixture in the lineup for years to come, and based on what we saw in a limited sample, he may be best used at third base. We know Royce Lewis can play there, and prefers to play there over second base, but with his injury history, he may be better off at the keystone instead of the hot corner. As seen this year, Lee is likely going to be the “next man up” if (or more probably, when) Carlos Correa misses time due to injury. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: DaShawn Keirsey Keirsey only had 12 plate appearances over five games played in 2024, so there isn't a ton to glean from such a small sample. In those 12 plate appearances, he got his first major-league hit, struck out once, and got plunked once. The Outlook Keirsey was not protected from last year's Rule 5 Draft, but wasn't selected, either. No team believed him a ready big-leaguer for 2024. He responded with a fantastic season for the Saints, setting the team's single-season record for hits by slashing .300/.368/.476 with 14 home runs and 36 stolen bases and boasting solid walk and strikeout rates. He is a phenomenal defensive center fielder, and it may be as soon as next year that we see Byron Buxton start transitioning into a near full-time DH, which would open the door for Keirsey to take over the middle of the Twins outfield for years to come. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Michael Helman Like Keirsey, Helman wasn't protected from the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but went unselected, leaving him in the organization. He responded with a .271/.350/.487 slash line in Triple A, earning his spot in the big leagues when rosters expanded on Sept. 1. He earned his first hit in his MLB debut, and finished the season going 3-for-9 with two doubles, two runs scored, and three strikeouts. The Outlook Projecting Helman’s outlook for the Twins is tough. He's been a solid minor-league utility player over six seasons, but there's a reason he went unprotected last December and he took so long to reach the big leagues. Realistically, he’s nothing more than a Quadruple-A player who will be a good depth piece behind the depth, as long as he’s in the organization. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Jair Camargo Camargo’s road to the big leagues has been even longer than Helman’s, but he’s only 25 years old after being signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015 International Free Agency. Since being included in the Brusdar Graterol-for-Kenta Maeda trade, Camargo has done well in the lower levels of the organization, but has struggled in the upper levels--including a .212/.290/.403 slash line for the Saints in 2024. Being a catcher will take you far, though. He made his MLB debut on Apr. 16, drawing a walk in his first at-bat, but is still in search of his first big-league hit after going 0-fer in six at-bats. The Outlook I think Camargo’s outlook is just slightly more promising than Helman’s, due to him being a catcher and the Twins' organizational depth at the position. Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons: Where do you think Lee lands in the lineup next year? Which of Martin, Helman, Keirsey, and Camargo can carve out valuable bench roles? Speak up in the comments. View full article

The San Francisco Giants have put lefty reliever Taylor Rogers on waivers. The former Minnesota Twins closer would be a welcome addition to a bullpen that has struggled of late. Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-USA TODAY Sports The lack of moves at the trade deadline has been well covered at this point. The recent struggles of the Twins bullpen, as a group, have led to some crucial losses over the last two weeks, highlighted by designating their lone deadline acquisition, Trevor Richards, for assignment. Taylor Rogers isn't the pitcher he once was with the Minnesota Twins, but would be more than serviceable as a medium-leverage lefty out of his former team's bullpen. Let's take a look at how he's performed for the Giants this year, and how’d he fit into the Twins bullpen hierarchy. Rogers has been used as a low- to medium-leverage option with the Giants this year, with roughly 90% of his 51 ⅓ innings coming in one of those two situations. He's produced a 2.45 ERA and a sterling 20.6 K%-BB%, but has become a bit more of a fly ball pitcher since his days donning a Twins uniform. His peripherals suggest he’s still a solid reliever, with a 3.44 FIP and a 3.09 SIERA with an elite hard-hit percentage. His sweeper and sinker have both been plus pitches the last two seasons, with run values of 2 and 5, respectively. Of course, the hang up with the Twins will be the fact he is owed a little more than $2 million for the rest of 2024 and $12 million for all of 2025. For reference, despite the solid season, FanGraphs values his production thus far to be worth just $2.1 million…a far cry from the nearly $10 million the Giants have paid him. While that likely counts the Twins out of making a claim, it really shouldn't, given the state of their bullpen and their standing in the race to October. Hypothetically, if the Twins were to get wild and pay up for a middling reliever, he would help bridge the gap in the middle of the Twins bullpen. In a peculiar, maybe meaningless turn of events, Rogers has reverse splits in 2024. While he's always dominated lefties throughout his career, this year, he's allowed a .772 OPS to lefties and a .668 OPS to righties. While that’s not necessarily what the Twins are looking for, their recent bullpen implosions indicate they should be willing to accept anyone who can improve the relief corps. And while Twins manager Rocco Baldelli uses his pitchers (well, almost all his players) situationally, Rogers would be the perfect bridge between the low and high-leverage relievers. For me, he would slot just below the likes of Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Cole Sands, competing with Jorge Alcalá and Caleb Thielbar for medium-leverage opportunities. Like they've done too many times to count, the front office has whiffed on pitchers with question marks in 2024. While this is largely because of the self-imposed salary cap from ownership, reuniting with Rogers would be a no-brainer from productivity and morale standpoints. Unfortunately, ownership has shown over and over again they care more about the bottom line than the morale of the team. Do you think the Twins should add Taylor Rogers? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

Five weeks from the trade deadline, there are a handful of teams in the National League who are on the playoff bubble. Specifically, the Nationals, Giants, and Reds currently find themselves within four games of a playoff spot. Should these teams decide to sell, they have players who could help the Twins win. Image courtesy of © Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports Looking at Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system and their projected playoff odds for each team, the Giants (12.1%), Nationals (1.6%) and Reds (5.5%) are all longshots. Coming into the season, the Giants and Reds were expected to be playoff contenders, whereas the Nationals were fully expected to be cellar-dwellers in the NL East. Taking all things into consideration, I’m anticipating the Nationals and Giants to be sellers at the deadline, while the Reds will likely wait until the days leading up to the deadline to make any decisions. San Francisco Giants (39-42) Current Situation: Despite the low playoff odds, the Giants find themselves just three games back of an NL Wild Card spot. They made some splashes last offseason, acquiring Robbie Ray via trade, as well as Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Jung Hoo Lee via free agency. Unfortunately, Ray has yet to make a start; Snell has made six ineffective starts while battling injuries; Chapman has been solidly average; and Lee is out for the year with a shoulder injury. Outside of the names, the Giants are top-heavy in talent (Logan Webb, Camilo Doval, among others), but it quickly falls off after that. Players to Watch: Thairo Estrada has two and a half years of team control remaining, and can play multiple positions, although he has only played at the keystone in 2024, which makes a good fit with the Twins platoon-heavy philosophy. Throughout his career, he’s spent time at every position except first base and catcher, while providing average production at the plate and even splits against left- and right-handed pitching. He’s had a bit of a down year, despite batted-ball and plate-discipline metrics around his career norms, but projection systems still see a league-average bat moving forward. Tyler Rogers, twin brother of former Twins reliever Taylor Rogers, has been a very good weapon out of the bullpen and has a year of team control following 2024. The fit is obvious, and Rogers carries an elite 1.3% walk rate and good batted-ball data. The only true submariner in baseball, he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Missing bats isn’t his specialty, but he still gets results, relying on one of the best sinkers in the game. He also throws a slider, which has previously been effective, but has been a bit less so in 2024. Washington Nationals (38-42) Current Situation: It’s surprising to see the Nationals in the hunt, just 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, and that can be attributed to one of the better rotations and bullpens in baseball… on the surface. Their top four starters have ERAs of 3.81, 3.13, 2.22, and 3.30, although their expected stats, peripherals, and projection models suggest some negative regression may be around the corner. To a lesser extent, the same could be said for the high-leverage bullpen arms, whereas their offense is one of the worst in the league--with only two qualified batters with a wRC+ above 91. Players to Watch: The Nationals have three solid, right-handed relievers who are controllable through 2025 (Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and Derek Law), not to mention Dylan Floro (…yep…), who is a free agent at season's end. To be honest, I’d be interested in acquiring any of these arms to supplement the Twins bullpen, but in the spirit of the exercise, I am going to keep an eye on Derek Law, specifically. Other than an elite chase rate of 35%, nothing pops off the page, but that hasn’t stopped Law from being a productive medium-leverage arm over the last two season. He managed that even in 2023, pitching half his games in Great American Ballpark. A 15% K-BB% is fine, a 3.58/3.40 FIP/SIERA is fine, and the run values of his various pitches (ranging from 3 to -2) are, well, fine. And that’s the exact type of addition I want them to make in the bullpen. Splash elsewhere. The Nationals have two cheap but uninspiring utility bats with team control through 2025, in Nick Senzel and Ildemaro Vargas. Both of these players have played multiple positions in the outfield and the infield, and each has a roughly league-average wRC+ in 2024. Senzel is better with the bat, and Vargas is better with the glove, but both Baseball Savant profiles are U-G-L-Y. Projection models like Vargas more than Senzel at the plate, but I can’t say I’d be overly thrilled if the Twins pursued either of these options. Cincinnati Reds (37-43) Current Situation: The Baltimore Orioles of the NL came into the season hoping to have a season like the one the actual Orioles are having. Instead, they are six games below .500 and 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. Despite playing half their games in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of baseball, their offense is in the bottom third of the league in runs per game, while their pitching staff has kept them in the hunt. Interestingly, they don’t have a single hitter who will be a free agent at season's end and, across the entire 40-man roster, there are only three players bound for the open market soon. Players to Watch: This is a longshot, because he’s only 26 years old and has four years of team control left, but I wonder if Graham Ashcraft is a “change of scenery” candidate. There is a stark contrast in his home and road splits, including a 25-percent increase in home runs surrendered and an ERA 1.43 runs higher at GABP. On the road, Ashcraft looks to be a solid back-of-the-rotation arm, with room to improve if he can increase his extension and develop a plus pitch or two. If all else fails, he'd almost certainly be a good reliever. The more I read on this guy, the more intrigued I am. Ashcraft could almost certainly benefit from one of the better pitching development organization in baseball. Lefty reliever Justin Wilson is one of the three who will be a free agent after the World Series, and is a great buy-low candidate. Expected stats aren’t predictive, but when your ERA is more than two times higher than your xERA, I think we can predict some positive regression. It’s a limited sample, but Savant (along with various projection models) likes Wilson’s under-the-hood data. The only names mentioned here that would be somewhat of a “splash” are Rogers and Ashcraft. The latter is certainly interesting, but if it were me, I’d rather see the Twins make a bigger play in the lineup or rotation and look to acquire less expensive names like Law and/or Wilson. Do you find any of these names intriguing? Did I miss anyone from this group of teams that you’d rather see the team pursue? View full article