Matthew Lenz

Welcome to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects countdown for the 2024-2025 offseason. Today, we’re diving into the 10th-ranked prospect as voted on by the Twins Daily community! Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily Gabriel “Gabby” Gonzalez comes in as our No. 10 prospect. He was one of the four players acquired when the Twins sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners. He landed with the Mariners organization as a member of the 2021-2022 International Free Agency class out of Venezuela, signing for $1.3 million as a right-handed hitting outfielder. At the time of the deal last offseason, he was widely considered a top-100 prospect in all of baseball, despite only being 19 years old and posting average production in a third of a season at High-A. Gabriel Gonzalez finished the 2023 season with a .718 OPS and 83 wRC+ for the Everett AquaSox being three and a half years younger than the average hitter, so it made sense for the Twins to start him at the same level with the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2024. Unfortunately, after a strong opening month, he would miss nearly two months with a lower back injury before rehabbing in the Complex League for a week and eventually getting back to Cedar Rapids. A so-so season has led to Gonzalez falling down prospect lists, including out of most people's top 100. The corner outfielder posted a .706 OPS with minimal power and speed, but an impressive 15.6% strikeout rate and passable 7.0% walk rate. While these statistics don’t jump off the page, it is important to remember that at only 20 years old, he's still more than two years younger than the average hitter in High-A. Limiting strikeouts at such a young age is largely a positive, but the quality of contact leaves more to be desired. While he's carrying an above-average contact rate of 78%, nearly half of those balls are pounded into the ground, resulting in just four home runs and an iso of .124. I do wonder how much his back injury impacted his power output, as he hit nine home runs in 115 fewer plate appearances at the same level in 2023. “Ground and pound” was a profile he got away from in 2023 and will be something to monitor for Gonzalez as a contact-over-power hitter with minimal speed isn’t a profile you typically see out of a corner outfielder. In fact, I found his 2024 Baseball Prospectus scouting report and had to share their thoughts on his running ability, “[Gonzalez] already profiles in a corner spot due to below-average speed and a running gait that can best be described as scooting.” Yes, scooting. At just 5’ 10” and 180 pounds, the one consistency among scouting reports are concerns about projectability. Given his short stature, relative to other professional athletes, there isn’t a lot of room for him to add mass to frame that could turn into additional power. His physical attributes combined with his position and free swinging approach, put an even stronger emphasis on his ability to make quality contact in order to be serviceable at the Big League level. At this point in his development, many scouting reports see him as someone who will specialize against left-handed hitting on the short side of a platoon. A profile that the Twins actually need right now in their corner outfield to go alongside Matt Wallner and or Trevor Larnach. While it’s far too soon to pigeonhole Gonzalez, his most likely outcome seems to be a right-handed bench bat that can provide a little pop – if he can stop pounding the ball into the ground. Unfortunately, the Twins are only a year removed from him being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft which makes the 2025 season a crucial one for both parties. He will likely start the year at High-A again, where he will still be a year or so younger than the average hitter, and the Twins will be very hard pressed to not protect Gonzalez if he can return to his 2023 form. On the other hand, if he doesn’t improve his quality of contact he’ll continue to slide down prospect lists, possibly to the point where he’s too far away from contributing to be protected by the Twins or drafted in the Rule 5 Draft. View full article

While it's been mostly speculation to this point, it seems the idea to move Griffin Jax to the starting rotation is picking up steam. What started as an interesting article by Eno Sarris of The Athletic ($$) on the impact of a reliever moving into the rotation was followed up by this tweet from Mark Ferrin of MLB Network. So nothing set in stone, yet, but definitely more than just speculation at this point. Before becoming one of the leagues best relievers, Jax did come up as a starter through the Twins system and even made 14 Big League starts in 2021. He wasn't even a little bit effective as a starter, posting a 6.10 ERA / 6.24 FIP with an abysmal 9.9% K-BB rate. Of course, he's had time to master his craft and it's reasonable to think he would perform much better in a starters role in 2025 and beyond. As pointed out by our own Cody Pirkl, it would be an odd move from a roster/organizational perspective. Do you think the Twins should move Jax to the rotation? View full rumor

The Minnesota Twins would be out of their ever-loving minds to trade one of their most valuable arms from an area of need, right? Right?! Not so fast! Griffin Jax is coming off a career year that saw him throw 71 innings with a 2.03 ERA, a 1.94 FIP and a K-BB rate of 29%. In his third season as a full-time reliever, Jax established himself not only as the best arm in the Twins bullpen but also one of the best bullpen arms in all of baseball. He’s entering his first season as an arbitration-eligible player, and he is projected to make $2.25 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. He'll have two more years of team control following the 2025 season. The Case for Trading Griffin Jax There is almost always a case to trade away a reliever coming off a strong season, simply because of the volatility of the position. It’s fairly uncommon for a reliever to maintain near-elite production for more than a few years, which Jax already has done, and knowing when their time is up can be next-to-impossible to predict. While relievers of Jax’s caliber don’t grow on trees, they can generally be plucked from other organizations fairly cheaply. Look at the two World Series teams as evidence that good scouting can help teams find productive relievers on the scrap heap. Combining both bullpens, only one reliever was truly homegrown; 11 of them were acquired via free agency, trade, or waivers within the last two years. What’s more, Jax would arguably be the best arm on either team, suggesting that a more balanced bullpen of solid arms may be better than a bullpen with a few top-end arms and sub-optimal ones bridging the gap. Jax is entering his age-30 season and coming off three seasons in a row of more than 65 innings and appearances. From 2021 to 2024, there were 10 pitchers who threw more than 260 innings of relief, and only Emmanuel Clase, who is four years younger than Jax, averaged 1.6 or more fWAR per season. By nearly every metric you can reference, Griffin Jax is coming off of the best season of his career, and his FIP suggests that he could be even more productive with a better defense supporting him. While that may sound like a reason to keep the righty, you can easily flip that as a reason to sell him: his value may never be higher. Examining a Potential Trade Market Another reason to take advantage of Jax’s career year is that, if he were a free agent, he would be the most sought-after right-handed relief arm on the market. Of the high-leverage relief arms available, he’s both coming off the most productive season of the group and the youngest reliever of the group by more than a year. This elevates his value even more, especially considering the three years of cheap team control tied to him. So who needs a relatively young, cheap, near-elite, and controllable reliever? Well, anyone who plans on contending in the 2025 season. Quite literally, if the Twins made him available, I would expect everyone except the Blue Jays, White Sox, Athletics, Angels, Marlins, and Rockies to pick up the phone. And given his team control, I might not even totally eliminate all of those teams. If we focus on what a return might look like in a Jax deal, I want to compare it to recent deals from both the trade deadline and the previous offseason, with the latter probably being a more realistic comparison. I think the reliever market, especially, varies in the offseason as compared to at the trade deadline, and it was very challenging to find even a somewhat similar trade that moved a reliever of Jax’s caliber in the 2023-2024 offseason. Last offseason, Aaron Bummer was coming off an unspectacular season with the Chicago White Sox and was dealt to the Atlanta Braves for a bevy of assets. The Braves sent three former first-round picks in Mike Soroka, Jared Shuster, and Braden Shewmake, all of whom had some prospect pedigree but also had question marks at or close to the major-league level. They also added utility infielder Nicky Lopez and pitching prospect Riley Gowens. Essentially, the White Sox got three kind-of intriguing fliers for their middle reliever. Not long afterward, the White Sox dealt a slightly better reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Seattle Mariners for two top-20 organizational prospects in Prelander Berroa and Zach DeLoach, plus a second-round comp pick (#69 overall). The Dodgers’ Caleb Ferguson was coming off back-to-back solid seasons and getting ready for his age-27 season. In February, he was dealt to the New York Yankees for a lesser bullpen piece in Matt Gage and a 19-year-old pitcher who had performed well in the Complex League. Turning our sights to the trade deadline, where he had more comparable deals to look at, Lucas Erceg of the Oakland Athletics was dealt to the Kansas City Royals. In return, the Athletics received a top-10 organizational pitching prospect with iffy surface stats but strong peripherals; another struggling top-20 prospect; and their most recent 11th-round pick, who was performing well at High A. The San Diego Padres acquired Jason Adam from the Rays for a top-100 pitching prospect and two top-12 organizational prospects. Conclusions I think it’s pretty clear that if the Twins are going to shop Griffin Jax, they would be remiss to do it this offseason. Because of reasons outlined earlier (volatility, dime a dozen, etc.), there just isn’t a strong enough market for a near-elite reliever from November through (say) June. Teams have their sights focused on free agents and acquiring relievers off the scrap heap via waivers, believing in their pitching development system to turn them into productive members of their respective bullpens. The shelves are more bare come mid-to-late July, and that naturally inflates the value of top-end relievers. It’s at that point, if circumstances warrant it, that the Twins should start answering calls on Jax. View full article

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First Base is up for grabs in 2025. Is the answer already on the Twins roster or will they look elsewhere to fill the void? View full video

Right-handed reliever Jack Noble was named to the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game on Thursday as the lone representative of the Minnesota Twins organization. Image courtesy of © William Parmeter Jack Noble is a bit of an unheralded prospect in the Twins organization which is largely the case for most minor league relief pitchers. The 24-year-old was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2022 out of Long Beach State where he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 61:20 K:BB ratio, and led the team with six wins across 10 starts and seven relief appearances in his junior season. He was immediately assigned to the Florida Complex League where he made two appearances, striking out three and walking one while giving up no earned runs. He started at the same level in 2023, and after three successful starts he earned a promotion to single-A Fort Myers where he made nine more starts and one relief appearance. With the Mighty Mussels he posted a 9.4% K-BB rate and 3.38 ERA / 4.91 FIP across 50 ⅔ innings. He’d again start at the same level in 2024, where he spent a majority of the season, making one start and 32 relief appearances totaling 58 ⅓ innings. He struggled despite being two years older than the average pitcher with a 4.78 ERA / 5.39 FIP but did improve his K-BB rate to 16% and posted a solid 28.8% called strike-whiff rate (CSW). He would be promoted to high-A Cedar Rapids for 3 ⅓ innings and then double-A Wichita for three more innings before his season came to a close. The righty has an incredibly deep pitch mix featuring a low-to-mid 90s four seam and two seam fastball, the latter of which averages 13.1 inches of horizontal break, as well as a cutter, slider, curve, changeup, and split-finger fastball. While his breaking balls spin at more than 3,000 rotations per minute, he has struggled with control throughout his career posting a lowly 60.1% strike rate in 2024. His struggles with control notwithstanding, the Twins sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he posted a 5.56 ERA and a 10:7 K:BB ratio in 11 ⅓ innings of work. Now, he’ll look to get an appearance in the 18th annual Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game with first pitch set for 7:00 pm CDT on Saturday, November 9th. View full article

The St. Louis Cardinals are selling and this Gold Glover is a cheaper, more controllable, and maybe even better version of Willi Castro. Should the Twins tango with the Cards? View full video

The long wait for the arrival of MLB Trade Rumors’s Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions is over! Who was predicted to land with the Twins? (Hint: It wasn’t Juan Soto.) Image courtesy of Left: © John Geliebter-Imagn Images, Right: © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions is one of my favorite offseason releases, as we put on our GM caps and start creating the first drafts of our offseason blueprints. Before we get into the predictions, be reminded of a few things that may impact the Twins' spending this offseason: Prior to the next two pieces of news, Twins ownership stated that they would not actively look to decrease payroll but that they also don’t expect it to increase. They found a short-term solution to their broadcasting issues by offering a direct-to-consumer streaming option via MLB.tv. They announced they were exploring a sale of the team. The Twins payroll for the 2024 season was about $125 million, and based on the three facts above, we can anticipate the 2025 payroll to come in around that same number. As of right now, if they were to tender all of their arbitration-eligible players, they are sitting around $135 million, leaving them with really no room to add free agents given the facts above. That is to say, if they plan on adding via free agency, then they’ll need to non-tender one or more of their arbitration-eligible players and/or make a trade. While those decisions aren’t part of the predictions, two different writers with MLBTR have predicted a reliever to land with the Twins, so there must be some thought that they won’t just sit on their hands this offseason. Now, let’s look at the two players predicted to join the Twins. #40 RP Andrew Kittredge The MLBTR team predicts Kittredge to get a two-year, $14-million deal, and Anthony Franco sees the 34-year-old right-handed reliever as one of the solutions to the gaps in the Minnesota bullpen. Next year will be Kittredge’s ninth season in Major League Baseball. He's accrued 2.2 fWAR across 240 relief appearances and 15 starts to date. As a low- to medium-leverage reliever for much of his career, he's pitched to a 3.26 ERA, with a 3.78 FIP and a 16.3% K-BB rate, leveraging a slider and sinker more than 80% of the time. Kittredge entered 2024 having missed a majority of the two previous seasons with various injuries, but bounced back nicely with a 2.80 ERA and matched his career K-BB rate across 70 ⅔ innings of relief for the St. Louis Cardinals. While his FIP may suggest some regression, he was in the 69th and 100th percentile for whiff and chase rates, respectively, suggesting a strikeout rate north of his career average (around 23%) may be in play moving forward. #48 LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara So, nobody formally predicted Ogasawara to the Twins, but they were mentioned at the end of his writeup—along with half a dozen other teams—as a team that “might feel this is a chance to land an Erick Fedde-esque bargain.” There are questions surrounding the 27-year-old left-handed starter, primarily around the quality of his offerings and his ability to be successful against Major League hitters. I would be absolutely stunned if Ogasawara was wearing Twins colors next season, but for what it’s worth, the team at MLBTR predicted him to earn $12 million over two years. #50 RHP Spencer Turnbull Another reliever? Well... maybe. This time, Steve Adams predicts an aging right-handed pitcher with an injury history to land with the Twins but only on a one-year, $7-million deal. Turnbull will be 32 by the time next season rolls around, and coming back from a lat strain that sidelined from the end of June to the end of the year. Prior to May of this past season, Turnbull had explicitly been a starter throughout his career, but he transitioned to the bullpen for two months prior to the season ending injury. I don’t see the Twins needing him in a starter’s role outside of maybe a spot start here and there, so I’d envision him coming out of the bullpen like he had for the Philadelphia Phillies. While the sample is small, in 20 innings of relief, he posted a 4.05 ERA / 4.17 FIP and a 14.1% K-BB rate featuring a four-seam fastball and sweeper combo for more than 80% of his pitches. Unlike Kittredge, his Savant profile doesn’t hold promise that brighter days could be ahead, but it doesn’t suggest much regression either. I do wonder if better utilization of his pitch mix would lead to better results, he only threw his curveball nine percent of the time, yet it generated an opponent batting average of .067 whereas opponents hit .351 off his fastball. If you’re let down after reading those predictions, I don’t know what to tell you. Given the constraints the front office is under, they will once again be bargain-hunting to fill the gaps in their bullpen. Typically, pitchers are in the bargain bin because they’re either not productive, have an injury history, or both. In this case, we have two solid relief options that come with injury risk. Neither of these guys would move the needle too much, but either would be a nice addition to the front end of the bullpen. Do you like either of these names as relatively cheap fliers? Is there anyone else on the list you’d realistically think the Twins could target? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to cut payroll and have a super-utility player who is cheaper, more controllable, and arguably an upgrade over Willi Castro. While the Twins aren’t looking to cut payroll, acquiring this former Gold Glove winner could help fill plenty of holes and give the team more club control to boot. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images The Cardinals are already waving the white towel for the 2025 season, and look poised to sell off a lot of big names to rebuild their farm system. Big names already mentioned in swirling rumors include Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Sonny Gray, among others. But super-utility player Brendan Donovan could provide a very good return, too. He’s relatively cheap, entering his first year of arbitration (where Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects him to get $4 million), but he might still be available as the Cards undertake a broad-scale reshuffling. Let’s take a look at what the 28-year-old brings to the table, and how he could help the Twins. Donovan just completed his third season and has a career slash line of .280/.364/.407, with 30 home runs and 12 stolen bases in just under 1,500 plate appearances. He boasts an absurdly low strikeout rate, thanks to impressive bat control that makes up for below-average bat speed and hard-hit rates. To wit, he has a 77th-percentile launch angle sweet-spot rate, despite a 24th-percentile barrel rate. He overcame a low walk rate by posting elite zone contact, chase, and whiff rates, which led to him batting in key positions in the Cardinals lineup. A left-handed hitter, Donovan has traditional splits at the plate, performing better against right-handed pitching and typically batting leadoff when St. Louis faces a righty starter. That said, with a career 94 wRC+ against lefties, he’s more than serviceable against southpaws and typically found himself batting in the middle third of the order when they were on the mound. While he seems to flourish a little lower in the order, he carried a .702 OPS out of the leadoff spot against right-handed pitching in 2024. As a reference, the Twins as a team had a .662 OPS in similar circumstances in 2024, with a strikeout rate 10 percentage points higher than Donovan’s. Overall, the former 7th-round pick’s 2024 offensive production was arguably better than that of any Twins player, and his consistency would have been valuable in an offense that had the third-most variance in runs scored per game in all of baseball. But, wait…there’s more! Like Willi Castro, Donovan was a 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Finalist as a utility player, but lost out to Jared Triolo of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Last season, Donovan played three different positions (primarily second base and left field) across 153 games, but is only a season removed from contributing at six different positions. Throughout his career, Donovan has graded out as a plus defender at third base and both corner outfield spots, a slightly below-average defender at the keystone, and firmly below average at first base and shortstop. Specifically in 2024, he posted career bests at second with a 1.7 UZR/150, five outs above average (OOA), and 3% success rate added. As I mentioned, Donovan is a plus defender at both corner outfield spots and could be an overall upgrade over Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach at this point in their careers. He does profile similarly to the two incumbent Twins, as lefties with traditional splits, and doesn’t have the arm strength that Wallner showcases, but his versatility would allow Rocco Baldelli to play to his players' strengths—as Larnach, in particular, has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. Alas, Donovan has never played an inning in center field, so the Twins would have to rely on Austin Martin or DeShawn Kiersey Jr. to spell Byron Buxton in the event of an injury. I’m not going to get into what it would cost to add Donovan, as I never feel confident in trying to predict that type of stuff, but given his production and team control it’s going to be something significant. Maybe the team could draw from its second tier of rising pitching prospects; the Cardinals are hungry for young hurlers with more upside than their current group. Regardless, Donovan's versatility is a perfect match with the philosophy of this organization, and his consistency would be a welcome sight to a rollercoaster offense. Given the financial constraints the front office faces, giving up distant prospects for cheap, major league-ready production is essential to being successful. Trading for Donovan would probably mean moving on from Castro, but getting extra team control, a few more dollars to spend, and a bit more stability in the bargain. Are you interested in Brendan Donovan? What would you give up to get him? View full article

Week 4 of the Arizona Fall League is in the books and Twins prospects were busy! Pitchers combined for 15 1/3 IP and our batters for 35 at-bats. Plus, stick around for a Ben Ross outlook after an interesting quote from a Baseball Prospectus writer. View full video

For the first two months in 2024, Ryan Jeffers looked like the best offensive catcher in baseball which was something the Minnesota Twins were betting on when they traded away Mitch Garver in March of 2022. Unfortunately, the rest of the season was a roller coaster and now we have to wonder if he’ll be tendered a contract as an arbitration eligible player. Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images A second round pick in 2018, Jeffers was quietly one the highest regarded catchers in all of Major League Baseball ahead of his debut in 2020. Since then he is one of 20 catchers to surpass 1300 plate appearances and of that group he is 10th in wRC+ and fWAR. MLBTR has projected that Ryan Jeffers will earn $4.7 million via arbitration in 2024, which is roughly a quarter of what FanGraphs value metrics say he was worth in 2024. With that laid out, should the Twins tender or move on from Jeffers? Let's look into both sides of the argument. Why He Should Be Tendered I’ve already started to lay out this argument above. Even despite the roller coaster season, Jeffers finished with a 107 wRC+ meaning that he produced 7% better than the average Major League hitter in a position where offense is often considered an added bonus. Additionally, adjustments at the plate led to a career low 20.2% strikeout rate and a career high 78.2% contact rate. He set career highs in nearly every counting stat in part due to playing in 26 more games and earning 130 more plate appearances in 2024 than he previously had in any one season. What’s more is that ZiPS thinks the approach is sustainable and views him as a plus hitter for at least the next two seasons. Defensively, a career low pop time of 1.93 seconds resulted in an estimated two additional baserunners being gunned down on the base path, per Baseball Savant’s “Catcher’s CS Above Average” metric. From a roster construction perspective, the Twins like having two starting-caliber catchers on the roster. Heck, at times they were carrying three catchers this season due to Jeffers’ ability to contribute as a designated hitter when he wasn’t behind the plate. From a purely offensive standpoint, $4.7 million is a really good price for a hitter of Jeffers’ caliber, and even more so when he’s doing it as a catcher. While the Twins have other options at catcher, they don’t have anyone else to replace his bat. Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered Almost every positive mentioned above can be tied to something that would give you pause. While Jeffers was setting a career-low strikeout rate, he was also setting a career-low walk rate. While it’s great that he’s making better contact with the ball, he’s doing so by sacrificing power as he saw a dip in his hard-hit metrics nearly across the board. We’d hope that he’d set career highs in home runs, runs, runs batted in, etc. when he had a 39% increase in plate appearances, but unfortunately those counting stats didn’t increase proportionally (not that we’d totally expect them to). When we break down his production by pitch type, it’s clear that he struggles with horizontal movement which isn’t good in a league where the sweeper is king. Defensively, he’s easily one of the worst catchers in baseball despite the Twins bringing in Christian Vázquez to help mentor him into a better catcher. In fact, we’ve generally seen no improvement in his blocking and framing metrics over the past two seasons, according to Baseball Savant. From a roster construction standpoint, $4.7 million is a lot of money to dole out to a guy with this many red flags on both sides of the ball, and the Twins are locked into Vázquez for $10 million as it sits right now. While they value having two catchers that can split time 50-50, you have to wonder if spending more than 10% of your salary “cap” on backstops is the most valuable way to spend that money. What I Would Do I’ve gone back and forth on this one quite a bit. If it weren’t for the salary constraints, this is a no-brainer move for the Twins. At only 27 years old and with one more year of team control after 2025, there is still time for Jeffers to continue developing as a hitter and a catcher. While I don’t anticipate significant improvement at the plate, I think a middle ground could be found between the hard hitter he was in 2023 versus the contact hitter he was in 2024. And let’s not forget, that “contact” hitter approach still led to 21 home runs and the eighth-best slugging percentage of catchers who had 400 or more plate appearances, so I feel like I’m selling him short a bit there. Given that we’re two years into the Vázquez mentorship, I tend to think his defense is what it is at this point. I don’t see value in spending nearly $15 million on backstops in 2025, but the decision here really isn’t whether they should or should not tender Jeffers. The decision here is to figure out how much salary they need to cover and or what level of prospect they need to include to ship Vázquez elsewhere. With Jeffers showing to be a 1.7 fWAR player over 122 games, I think it’s realistic to go into 2025 with Jair Camargo as the team's backup and utilizing a ⅔ / ⅓ split between the vet and prospect. What do you think? How should the Twins handle the catching position in the 2025 season? View full article

The Twins have a decision to make on right-handed reliever Jorge Alcalá. While he is technically arbitration eligible, the Twins actually have a $1.5 million team option that would cost $55 thousand if they decline. Should the Twins accept or decline the team option on Alcalá? Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images Alcalá came to the Twins at the 2018 trade deadline that sent Ryan Pressly to the Houston Astros. He debuted in 2019 and, despite some injury-shortened seasons, has been a mainstay in the bullpen since 2020, having accrued the fourth most innings of any Twins reliever in that time. While this isn’t an arbitration decision, I think it’s worth noting from a value perspective that MLBTR projected that Alcalá would earn $1.7 million if he went through the arbitration process in 2024. With that laid out, should the Twins tender or move on from 29-year-old Alcalá? Let's look into both sides of the argument. Why He Should Be Tendered Sans two appearances, Jorge Alcalá was arguably the Twins' best reliever in 2024. His 3.24 ERA is inflated due to two appearances that saw him give up just under 43% of his earned run total for the whole season. In fact, more than 44% of his appearances were clean, 1-2-3 innings and allowed zero earned runs in nearly 80% of his outings. His 98-mile-per-hour fastball has plus arm-side movement and is countered by a slider with plus glove-side movement. These two offerings accounted for 83% of his pitches and resulted in a combined .213 opponent batting average and a 31.1% whiff rate, and had above-average strikeout and whiff rates overall. In addition to limiting hard contact, he fits Target Field and the Twins' current defensive strength well as a flyball-oriented pitcher. From a roster construction perspective, the need for reliable relievers is clear and Alcalá more than fits that need. It’s an added plus that he can be equally effective against left-handed and right-handed batters. The Twins are on the hook for $55K regardless of what they decide here, and while that’s pretty negligible, it’s just another reason not to let one of the better relievers in all of baseball walk away. Why He Shouldn’t Be Tendered While the surface stats paint a pretty picture, underneath the hood, Alcalá carried a 4.14 FIP and a fastball that opponents teed off on to the tune of a .513 slugging percentage and six home runs. While his offerings grade out well in terms of Stuff+, a below-average walk rate and a 19th-percentile chase rate indicate a cap to his ceiling and reliance on soft zone contact to remain an effective reliever. From a roster perspective, the Twins have plenty of right-handed relief options, many of which are arbitration-eligible. In addition to the self-imposed salary cap, the Twins have a roster crunch here where they will likely need to decide which righty arms to keep in the bullpen and which they will let walk. What I Would Do Accepting Alcalá’s team option is a pretty easy decision, given the production and the cost. While he is one of the Twins' more “expensive” relief decisions, he’s also one of the more productive ones alongside Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax. Despite being another right-handed reliever, it also helps that he can be relied upon to effectively face left-handed batters. What do you think? Should Alcalá be tendered and kept, tendered and traded, or non-tendered? View full article

It was on Halloween 2024 that Max Kepler officially became an unrestricted free agent almost guaranteeing that the longest tenured member of the Twins organization will don a different uniform in 2025. Kepler will go down as one of the best right fielders in franchise history. Let's commemorate his accomplishments in navy and red. Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-Imagn Images Max Kepler signed as an international free agent out of Germany in 2009. It would take just over six years for him to make his debut on September 27th, 2015 and only a few days after that for him to record his first hit – a single of Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Johnny Cueto. More than a thousand games later across ten seasons, the right fielder finishes his Twins career with 893 hits, 161 home runs, 2027 putouts, and 46 outfield assists. At the time, we didn’t know that his 4th-inning single off Spencer Schwellenbach on August 27th would be his last. It seems fitting it was at least at Target Field. While researching his most memorable performances, I found a very fun piece of bar trivia that is a statistical oddity. Kepler, who has hit the most home runs at Target Field with 84, is responsible for hitting the stadium's 600th, 700th, and 1000th home runs. Less fun but still notable, he has the fourth-highest fielding percentage of all right fielders in Major League Baseball history at 99.21%. With his accomplishments noted, let’s relive some of his most memorable performances with the Minnesota Twins. These are presented in no particular ranking or order. August 1st, 2016 - First Career Three Home Run Game Oddly enough, Kepler has had two three home run games in his career, and both came in Cleveland. He took starter, Danny Salazar, deep twice before getting the hat trick against righty reliever Cody Anderson. June 6th, 2019 - Kepler Adopts Trevor Bauer It was only the first week of June, and the Twins were already enjoying a 9.5-game lead in the AL Central, well on their way to a franchise and league record-breaking season. Kepler led off the game with a 369-foot blast down the right-field line and followed that up with a 375-foot shot in the third. Not only would he go on to add a no-doubter in the seventh, but he would homer off Trevor Bauer in his first two at-bats a little over a month later. According to Elias Sports, homering in five consecutive at-bats against the same pitcher would be the longest streak since 1961 and would forever require Trevor Bauer to call him Daddy. June 12th, 2016 - First Career Walk-Off Home Run Kepler has three career walk-off home runs, the first of which came on June 12th, 2016, against the Boston Red Sox. With two outs and facing an 0-2 hole, the rookie took Matt Barnes deep to give the Twins a 5-4 victory in 10 innings at Target Field. His second career walk-off came just a couple of years later off of Brad Peacock on a full count with two outs. In all, Kepler has walked off his opponent a total of nine times, with the other six being RBI singles. August 6th, 2023 Game Tying Home Run Leads to Win Heading into their game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Twins were only 3.5 games up on the Cleveland Guardians with under two months left in the season. They were also trying to keep pace with the eventual World Series Champion Texas Rangers in the race for the second-best division winner in the American League. Down one run in the bottom of the 9th, facing Dbacks closer Paul Sewald, Kepler tied the game with a 438-foot missile that allowed Matt Wallner to hit a walk-off home run two batters later, extending their lead to 4.5 games over the Guardians. Throughout his career, Kepler has tied the game or given his team the lead in the 9th inning or later on nine different occasions, but arguably none were as big as the one on August 6th. June 25th, 2021 - Guns Down Game Tying Run at Second We can’t commemorate Kepler without at least one highlight of how well he handled right field. One of the bigger moments occurred on June 25th, 2021 when Guardians outfielder, Bradley Zimmer, was trying to stretch a 9th inning single into a double. Like he did so many times Kepler played the ball perfect and after review Zimmer, who represented the tying run, was deemed out at second base for the second out of the inning. TXdXeGRfWGw0TUFRPT1fVlFOV1ZsSldCQVlBRDF0UVZ3QUFBQUJXQUZnR1V3TUFWd0FGQkFZTlZBWlVVVk5S.mp4 While Kepler was up and down throughout his career, his longevity and overall production with the team makes him a future candidate for the Twins Hall of Fame – shoot, if Cuddyer is a Twins Hall of Famer then Kepler should be a lock. While it remains to be seen, I think Twins fans will come to miss Kepler holding down right field with a plus glove and a solid bat. Regardless, we wish him the best of luck in the next chapter of his career! What were your favorite Kepler memories and moments? Share in the comments and join the conversation! View full article