Matthew Lenz

My takeaway from reviewing his profile is that his bat is almost too disciplined to a fault.

Totally understand yours and others point of view. I think saying Julien had a bad season is underselling it quite a bit. I'm not writing him off but his 2024 was a disaster with both the Twins and Saints. So much so that I don't think we can assume it was a sophomore slump and be hopeful for a full rebound in 2025. I will happily eat crow if I'm wrong, but I don't see it.

We're down to the final two in our countdown of the Minnesota Twins' top 20 prospects for the 2024-25 offseason, as voted on by the Twins Daily community. Today, we'll dive into the profile of a left-handed hitter who has a bright future in the Twins outfield. But which one? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Emmanuel Rodriguez was a member of the 2019 International Free Agency class, signing for $2.5 million that July. Now, entering his age-22 season, he's a consensus top-100 prospect in all of baseball and will likely get an opportunity to make the big-league club in spring training. Given his age and questions surrounding his plate approach, it’s a long shot that he makes the Opening Day roster, but I wouldn’t rule out a debut sometime in 2025. The left-handed hitting outfielder spent most of his 2024 season with the Double-A Wichita Wind Surge, before getting the call to the Triple-A St. Paul Saints for the final seven games of their season. Across 201 plate appearances, he posted a 1.029 OPS with nine home runs and nine stolen bases. While he posted a concerning strikeout rate of 29.4%, that was counterbalanced by an incredible 24.9% walk rate—a sign that his patience at the plate can be a bit of a double-edged sword. The reason for his lack of plate appearances was mainly a nagging right thumb sprain that required multiple stints on the injured list and ultimately resulted in a clean-up procedure after the season concluded. While he has spent most of his time in center field and could stick there at the highest level, it’s also likely that he ends up in a corner outfield spot, given his arm and power profile. There's definitely a lot to be excited about with the young prospect, but it comes with caution: we need to see if his approach at the plate will work against the best pitchers on Earth. Despite the high walk percentage, he has a little too much swing-and-miss in his game, as he carried a lowly 66.3% contact rate in 2024, which is about 10 points lower than you’d want to see for the level he was at. Moreover, his 32% swing rate is too selective and results in falling behind in counts, while a chase rate under 8% is largely the reason he’s able to maintain such a high walk rate. Ultimately, Rodriguez will be better served finding more of a balance in his pitch selection for the prospect industry to feel more confident in the likelihood he reaches his ceiling as a middle-of-the-order slugger for the Twins. Rodriguez does a ton of damage against hard offerings, but struggles to attack breaking balls. That's fairly common amongst young hitters, but it’s another area that gives us pause when we look to project his impact. In fact, this has been part of the reason that current Twins outfielder Trevor Larnach has found it hard to sustain success. Unlike Larnach, Rodriguez doesn’t look to be a platoon bat at this point, as he’s been able to do damage against right-handed and left-handed pitchers alike. While he does have a dip in power against lefties, he was able to slash .303/.465./.545 against southpaws in 2024. Regardless, Rodriguez is inarguably a name to watch in 2025, as he likely spends the season with the Saints and local fans will get the opportunity to see firsthand whether his approach works. After the right thumb sprain in 2024 and a torn meniscus in 2022, Rodriguez hopes to have a full, healthy season and establish himself as a frontrunner for a call-up, if and when there is an opportunity. Do you think Rodriguez’s approach can work or does he need to make adjustments to avoid becoming the next Edouard Julien? View full article

With the non-tender deadline set for Friday, the Minnesota Twins could look to upgrade their roster via trade. While they have some decisions to make of their own, most notably on Willi Castro, acquiring two Baltimore Orioles could make those decisions easier. Image courtesy of Left: © Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images; Right: © Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images Here at Twins Daily, we have written extensively about Willi Castro and the other arbitration eligible players that the Twins need to make a decision on over the next 24 hours. I specifically have been a proponent of non-tendering Castro and using that money elsewhere to improve the roster. That said, if the Twins go that route, they will need to find another utility piece to replace the 2024 Twins Most Valuable Player’s production. In addition to potentially needing utility depth, they absolutely need at least one more left-handed arm in the bullpen. Shifting our focus to the Baltimore Orioles, super-utility Jorge Mateo is blocked by a large and very good young core that are still in their pre-arbitration years. Acquired at last year's deadline, Gregory Soto is a hard-throwing lefty that MLB Trade Rumors suggests the Orioles could move on from via trade or non-tender. Let's dive into each of these players and see how they would fit on the 2025 Twins roster. INF/OF Jorge Mateo From a versatility perspective, Mateo would be a near-perfect replacement for Castro at a cheaper cost. Non-tendering Castro and acquiring the Orioles 29-year-old would allow the Twins some additional funds to spend elsewhere. Cot’s Baseball Contracts ($$) predicts Mateo to earn $3.3 million in his final year of arbitration, about half the projection for Castro. Although his production at the plate would be a downgrade, he’d be an upgrade on basepaths and in the field. After a career year in 2022, Mateo has been a bit lackluster with 67 and 87 wRC+s in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Last season, he carried a .668 OPS with five home runs and 13 stolen bases across 68 games before his season ended with a UCL injury in his non-throwing arm. He may not be fully ready by the start of the 2025 season, but he is expected to be available for most of next year. His plate approach and quality of contact leave something to be desired, with above-average whiff rates and below-average hard-hit and barrel rates. That said, he has posted a positive UZR/150 rate at second, shortstop, and center throughout his career and also has the ability to play in both corner outfield spots. While his production at the plate may be lackluster, the Twins would greatly benefit from adding his glove and speed which makes him a really good fit for this roster. LHRP Gregory Soto As the roster sits now, Kody Funderburk is the Twins' only left-handed reliever, and looking at the top levels of their farm system, there aren't any names that stand out as candidates to fill the need of another left-handed arm out of the bullpen. Like Mateo, Soto is also entering his final year of arbitration and Cot’s predicts him to earn $4.5 million. While Soto has plenty of experience as a high-leverage reliever throughout his career, he has now posted back-to-back seasons with an ERA greater than 4.00—although his sub-4.00 FIP would suggest some positive regression is possible. The 29-year-old is an extreme groundball pitcher who is really good at missing bats and inducing weak contact. He features a plus sinker with above-average arm-side movement and a slider that produced a 49.4% whiff rate in 2024, the latter of which he uses to put away hitters. He also has a 98-mile-per-hour fastball but poor location—mostly sitting middle-middle with it—resulted in a .333 opponent batting average. While the Twins don’t necessarily need him in a high- or even medium-leverage role, fixing his fastball location could unlock another level that the Detroit Tigers, Philadelphia Phillies and Orioles haven’t been able to do. The Twins were a playoff-caliber team for more than two-thirds of the season in 2024 so, while these two players may not be top-end additions to the roster, they are relatively cheap depth pieces that fill needs and fit on this roster nicely. Moreover, if you believe in the team’s ability to develop players, these two players could turn in more meaningful and productive pieces for a team that will look to compete for the AL Central title in 2025. Do you think the Twins should pursue Mateo and Soto? Are there other non-tender candidates that you think they should look at? View full article

The Minnesota Twins enter the 2024-2025 offseason with a very solid core that should have been a playoff team in the 2024 season. Alas, they watched the playoffs from their couch thanks to a historic collapse, but they still have the foundation for another playoff run in 2025. I’m putting my GM hat on and creating the blueprint I want to see the Twins follow over the next few months. Image courtesy of Left: © Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images, Middle: © Stan Szeto-Imagn Images, Right: © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images This series of articles is a primer on the release of our new "You're The Twins GM!" tool where you play the role of Derek Falvey and build your own Twins offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun! Before we get into the moves, let’s establish constraints that need to be followed in order to make this realistic. Would I love to see the Twins pursue Juan Soto? Absolutely. Is that realistic? Absolutely not. And the primary reason for that, other than the infeasibility of him joining a small-market team, is that the Twins have a self-imposed salary cap. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Twins currently have roughly $137 million on the books in 2025, which includes the players who are arbitration-eligible, such as Willi Castro. It’s been reported that the Twins will not look to reduce payroll for the second consecutive season and, even with a new broadcast deal, it’s safe to assume they won’t be looking to raise payroll, either. So the biggest constraint we have to work with is keeping the payroll around the $137 million figure at which it currently sits. We also have to leave space for 40-man roster additions, who will cost $800,000 each. I'm going to account for four players totaling $3.2 million, so I'll use $133.8 million as the target payroll. Another move to consider is whether Griffin Jax will transition to a starting role in 2025, but that will not be a part of my blueprint: I personally think that’s a terrible idea. With all that laid out, let’s get into the moves. Creating “Cap” Space The Twins have 11 players on whom to make arbitration decisions in the coming weeks, and if they were to tender all of the players a contract it would cost roughly $32.6 million, using Cot’s projections. I'm including Jorge Alcalá in this group, since he is arbitration-eligible, but he would instead be retained via an option at $1.5 million. One way or another, I don’t think Willi Castro should be with the Twins next season, and whether he is non-tendered or tendered and then traded, I am freeing the Twins of his $6 million projection. I am also opening up $1.575 million by non-tendering right-handed reliever Michael Tonkin. I am picking up Alcalá’s option and tendering the rest of the 2024-2025 class, which includes Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Durán, Trevor Larnach, Griffin Jax, Royce Lewis, Justin Topa, and Brock Stewart. Next, we turn our sights to players who have guaranteed contracts, but whom we could look to move. We’ve created a series of articles for a few of these players, but the two I am going to do nearly whatever it takes to move are right-handed starter Chris Paddack ($7.5 million) and catcher Christian Vázquez ($10 million). To make that happen, especially in the case of Vázquez, the Twins may have to help cover salary and/or send a prospect to the team receiving either player. When it comes to needing a backup catcher, the Twins have Jair Camargo who could fill the role, which would make Jeffers the primary catcher in 2025. In an attempt to be reasonable, I am going to open up only half of what both Paddack and Vázquez are owed, which gives me an additional $8.75 million to work with. These moves (in addition to excluding Castro) leaves the payroll at $119.05 million, with roughly $14.75 million to spend. Replacing Willi Castro My decision to move on from Castro doesn’t have anything to do with what I think of his production, but simply comes down to the dollars. I think we can recreate his versatility and production with less money. It’s been reported that the St. Louis Cardinals are looking to reduce payroll in 2025, as they look at a multi-year rebuild. I recently wrote about super-utility Brendan Donovan, whom I would love to see the Twins pursue via trade, as someone who could arguably be an upgrade over the 2024 Twins MVP. While I’m not going to get into details of what a trade for the 28-year-old might look like, I’ll at least mention that it’s not going to be cheap given his age, versatility, production, and having three years of team control. Alas, Cot’s projects him to get $4 million in his first year of arbitration, which saves us $2 million (and gives us two extra years) compared to retaining Castro’s services in 2025. This move puts the payroll at $123.05 million and leaves us with $10.75 million to spend. Left-Handed Relief As the 40-man roster sits now, Kody Funderburk is the only left-handed reliever coming out of the Twins bullpen. That needs to be addressed. If we look internally, the Twins do have four left-handed pitchers in their top two levels, three of whom are Rule 5-eligible and two of whom have virtually no relief experience. For a team looking to compete in 2025, they’re going to have to fill this void via trade or free agency. Scott Alexander is a cheap name who stands out to me, after a season that saw him throw 38 ⅔ innings of relief for the Oakland Athletics for just $2.25 million. He posted a 2.56 ERA / 3.89 FIP with a 10% K-BB rate, as an extreme groundball pitcher. While I do have concerns how that would pair with our infield defense, I think he would be a serviceable low- to medium-leverage reliever and would only cost the Twins a few million dollars on the open market. Considering he’s 35 years old with an unspectacular career résumé and experienced some left rotator cuff tendonitis in 2025, I think he could be added on a one-year deal for $4 million. This move puts the payroll at $127.25 million, with $6.75 million left to spend. Infield Depth I’ll be very interested to see the market value for Carlos Santana coming off a Gold Glove season. I’m not going to completely rule out a return to the Twins, but it does seem unlikely. His departure (in addition to Kyle Farmer, Alex Kirilloff, and Castro) needs to be addressed. When it comes to first base, I recently suggested that José Miranda is more than capable of getting the lion’s share at the position. While Donovan can play all around the dirt, it’s worth noting that in 2024, he only played second, third, and left field. We also have rumors that the Twins could move Royce Lewis to second, creating an opening at third, which would likely be filled by Brooks Lee. Regardless of how that puzzle is put together, there is a level of uncertainty surrounding the infield depth players currently on the 40-man roster in Camargo, Michael Helman, Edouard Julien, and Austin Martin, and I don’t foresee anyone in upper levels making an impact in 2025. As a competitive team, I need a solid, versatile bench bat and I’m looking at former Twins utility infielder Donovan Solano. Coming off a 2023 season wherein he posted a 116 wRC+ and a 1.3 fWAR campaign with our Twins, he didn't sign until two weeks into the 2024 season with the San Diego Padres. It was a one-year pact for $1 million, and he produced another above-average season, playing both corner infield spots and second base. I'd venture to guess he’d sign a similar deal to play in 2025, so I'm going to put him at 1 year, $2 million, giving us less than $5 million left in our budget. Corner Outfield v. LHP Nearing the end of our budget, the biggest hole I have on my roster is a corner outfield bat that will be on the short side of a loose platoon with Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Although a left-handed bat, another reason I like Brendan Donovan is that he can be serviceable against left-handed pitching—something Wallner and Larnach cannot say, to this point in their careers. Still, Donovan has been a below-average hitter against southpaws, and we need someone who can fill that gap. One name I really like is Mark Canha, who can also play first, but he will net more than what we have left to spend. For now, I don’t plan on addressing this need, because I want to leave the opportunity for the younger guys on our roster to really prove whether they will be relegated to platoon roles, including Wallner and Larnach. This also includes Martin, who carried a 93 wRC+ against lefties, and DaShawn Kiersey Jr. I’m also learning from the Twins' mistakes in 2024, where they essentially couldn’t improve at the deadline due to financial constraints. Leaving roughly $5 million to play around with isn’t a lot, but at least allows some room for improvement during the season. You may have noticed I didn’t do much to improve the bullpen, but I am banking on Funderburk, Stewart, Topa, and even Ronny Henriquez to be healthy in 2025, which would boost the bullpen. And again, I left myself wiggle room to add to the roster if it’s needed. What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Twins roster and hit the button below! Start Your Payroll Blueprint Now View full article

Welcome to the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects countdown for the 2024-2025 offseason. Today, we’re diving into the 10th-ranked prospect as voted on by the Twins Daily community! Image courtesy of Seth Stohs, Twins Daily Gabriel “Gabby” Gonzalez comes in as our No. 10 prospect. He was one of the four players acquired when the Twins sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners. He landed with the Mariners organization as a member of the 2021-2022 International Free Agency class out of Venezuela, signing for $1.3 million as a right-handed hitting outfielder. At the time of the deal last offseason, he was widely considered a top-100 prospect in all of baseball, despite only being 19 years old and posting average production in a third of a season at High-A. Gabriel Gonzalez finished the 2023 season with a .718 OPS and 83 wRC+ for the Everett AquaSox being three and a half years younger than the average hitter, so it made sense for the Twins to start him at the same level with the Cedar Rapids Kernels in 2024. Unfortunately, after a strong opening month, he would miss nearly two months with a lower back injury before rehabbing in the Complex League for a week and eventually getting back to Cedar Rapids. A so-so season has led to Gonzalez falling down prospect lists, including out of most people's top 100. The corner outfielder posted a .706 OPS with minimal power and speed, but an impressive 15.6% strikeout rate and passable 7.0% walk rate. While these statistics don’t jump off the page, it is important to remember that at only 20 years old, he's still more than two years younger than the average hitter in High-A. Limiting strikeouts at such a young age is largely a positive, but the quality of contact leaves more to be desired. While he's carrying an above-average contact rate of 78%, nearly half of those balls are pounded into the ground, resulting in just four home runs and an iso of .124. I do wonder how much his back injury impacted his power output, as he hit nine home runs in 115 fewer plate appearances at the same level in 2023. “Ground and pound” was a profile he got away from in 2023 and will be something to monitor for Gonzalez as a contact-over-power hitter with minimal speed isn’t a profile you typically see out of a corner outfielder. In fact, I found his 2024 Baseball Prospectus scouting report and had to share their thoughts on his running ability, “[Gonzalez] already profiles in a corner spot due to below-average speed and a running gait that can best be described as scooting.” Yes, scooting. At just 5’ 10” and 180 pounds, the one consistency among scouting reports are concerns about projectability. Given his short stature, relative to other professional athletes, there isn’t a lot of room for him to add mass to frame that could turn into additional power. His physical attributes combined with his position and free swinging approach, put an even stronger emphasis on his ability to make quality contact in order to be serviceable at the Big League level. At this point in his development, many scouting reports see him as someone who will specialize against left-handed hitting on the short side of a platoon. A profile that the Twins actually need right now in their corner outfield to go alongside Matt Wallner and or Trevor Larnach. While it’s far too soon to pigeonhole Gonzalez, his most likely outcome seems to be a right-handed bench bat that can provide a little pop – if he can stop pounding the ball into the ground. Unfortunately, the Twins are only a year removed from him being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft which makes the 2025 season a crucial one for both parties. He will likely start the year at High-A again, where he will still be a year or so younger than the average hitter, and the Twins will be very hard pressed to not protect Gonzalez if he can return to his 2023 form. On the other hand, if he doesn’t improve his quality of contact he’ll continue to slide down prospect lists, possibly to the point where he’s too far away from contributing to be protected by the Twins or drafted in the Rule 5 Draft. View full article

While it's been mostly speculation to this point, it seems the idea to move Griffin Jax to the starting rotation is picking up steam. What started as an interesting article by Eno Sarris of The Athletic ($$) on the impact of a reliever moving into the rotation was followed up by this tweet from Mark Ferrin of MLB Network. So nothing set in stone, yet, but definitely more than just speculation at this point. Before becoming one of the leagues best relievers, Jax did come up as a starter through the Twins system and even made 14 Big League starts in 2021. He wasn't even a little bit effective as a starter, posting a 6.10 ERA / 6.24 FIP with an abysmal 9.9% K-BB rate. Of course, he's had time to master his craft and it's reasonable to think he would perform much better in a starters role in 2025 and beyond. As pointed out by our own Cody Pirkl, it would be an odd move from a roster/organizational perspective. Do you think the Twins should move Jax to the rotation? View full rumor

The Minnesota Twins would be out of their ever-loving minds to trade one of their most valuable arms from an area of need, right? Right?! Not so fast! Griffin Jax is coming off a career year that saw him throw 71 innings with a 2.03 ERA, a 1.94 FIP and a K-BB rate of 29%. In his third season as a full-time reliever, Jax established himself not only as the best arm in the Twins bullpen but also one of the best bullpen arms in all of baseball. He’s entering his first season as an arbitration-eligible player, and he is projected to make $2.25 million, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. He'll have two more years of team control following the 2025 season. The Case for Trading Griffin Jax There is almost always a case to trade away a reliever coming off a strong season, simply because of the volatility of the position. It’s fairly uncommon for a reliever to maintain near-elite production for more than a few years, which Jax already has done, and knowing when their time is up can be next-to-impossible to predict. While relievers of Jax’s caliber don’t grow on trees, they can generally be plucked from other organizations fairly cheaply. Look at the two World Series teams as evidence that good scouting can help teams find productive relievers on the scrap heap. Combining both bullpens, only one reliever was truly homegrown; 11 of them were acquired via free agency, trade, or waivers within the last two years. What’s more, Jax would arguably be the best arm on either team, suggesting that a more balanced bullpen of solid arms may be better than a bullpen with a few top-end arms and sub-optimal ones bridging the gap. Jax is entering his age-30 season and coming off three seasons in a row of more than 65 innings and appearances. From 2021 to 2024, there were 10 pitchers who threw more than 260 innings of relief, and only Emmanuel Clase, who is four years younger than Jax, averaged 1.6 or more fWAR per season. By nearly every metric you can reference, Griffin Jax is coming off of the best season of his career, and his FIP suggests that he could be even more productive with a better defense supporting him. While that may sound like a reason to keep the righty, you can easily flip that as a reason to sell him: his value may never be higher. Examining a Potential Trade Market Another reason to take advantage of Jax’s career year is that, if he were a free agent, he would be the most sought-after right-handed relief arm on the market. Of the high-leverage relief arms available, he’s both coming off the most productive season of the group and the youngest reliever of the group by more than a year. This elevates his value even more, especially considering the three years of cheap team control tied to him. So who needs a relatively young, cheap, near-elite, and controllable reliever? Well, anyone who plans on contending in the 2025 season. Quite literally, if the Twins made him available, I would expect everyone except the Blue Jays, White Sox, Athletics, Angels, Marlins, and Rockies to pick up the phone. And given his team control, I might not even totally eliminate all of those teams. If we focus on what a return might look like in a Jax deal, I want to compare it to recent deals from both the trade deadline and the previous offseason, with the latter probably being a more realistic comparison. I think the reliever market, especially, varies in the offseason as compared to at the trade deadline, and it was very challenging to find even a somewhat similar trade that moved a reliever of Jax’s caliber in the 2023-2024 offseason. Last offseason, Aaron Bummer was coming off an unspectacular season with the Chicago White Sox and was dealt to the Atlanta Braves for a bevy of assets. The Braves sent three former first-round picks in Mike Soroka, Jared Shuster, and Braden Shewmake, all of whom had some prospect pedigree but also had question marks at or close to the major-league level. They also added utility infielder Nicky Lopez and pitching prospect Riley Gowens. Essentially, the White Sox got three kind-of intriguing fliers for their middle reliever. Not long afterward, the White Sox dealt a slightly better reliever, Gregory Santos, to the Seattle Mariners for two top-20 organizational prospects in Prelander Berroa and Zach DeLoach, plus a second-round comp pick (#69 overall). The Dodgers’ Caleb Ferguson was coming off back-to-back solid seasons and getting ready for his age-27 season. In February, he was dealt to the New York Yankees for a lesser bullpen piece in Matt Gage and a 19-year-old pitcher who had performed well in the Complex League. Turning our sights to the trade deadline, where he had more comparable deals to look at, Lucas Erceg of the Oakland Athletics was dealt to the Kansas City Royals. In return, the Athletics received a top-10 organizational pitching prospect with iffy surface stats but strong peripherals; another struggling top-20 prospect; and their most recent 11th-round pick, who was performing well at High A. The San Diego Padres acquired Jason Adam from the Rays for a top-100 pitching prospect and two top-12 organizational prospects. Conclusions I think it’s pretty clear that if the Twins are going to shop Griffin Jax, they would be remiss to do it this offseason. Because of reasons outlined earlier (volatility, dime a dozen, etc.), there just isn’t a strong enough market for a near-elite reliever from November through (say) June. Teams have their sights focused on free agents and acquiring relievers off the scrap heap via waivers, believing in their pitching development system to turn them into productive members of their respective bullpens. The shelves are more bare come mid-to-late July, and that naturally inflates the value of top-end relievers. It’s at that point, if circumstances warrant it, that the Twins should start answering calls on Jax. View full article

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First Base is up for grabs in 2025. Is the answer already on the Twins roster or will they look elsewhere to fill the void? View full video

Right-handed reliever Jack Noble was named to the Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game on Thursday as the lone representative of the Minnesota Twins organization. Image courtesy of © William Parmeter Jack Noble is a bit of an unheralded prospect in the Twins organization which is largely the case for most minor league relief pitchers. The 24-year-old was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2022 out of Long Beach State where he posted a 3.36 ERA, a 61:20 K:BB ratio, and led the team with six wins across 10 starts and seven relief appearances in his junior season. He was immediately assigned to the Florida Complex League where he made two appearances, striking out three and walking one while giving up no earned runs. He started at the same level in 2023, and after three successful starts he earned a promotion to single-A Fort Myers where he made nine more starts and one relief appearance. With the Mighty Mussels he posted a 9.4% K-BB rate and 3.38 ERA / 4.91 FIP across 50 ⅔ innings. He’d again start at the same level in 2024, where he spent a majority of the season, making one start and 32 relief appearances totaling 58 ⅓ innings. He struggled despite being two years older than the average pitcher with a 4.78 ERA / 5.39 FIP but did improve his K-BB rate to 16% and posted a solid 28.8% called strike-whiff rate (CSW). He would be promoted to high-A Cedar Rapids for 3 ⅓ innings and then double-A Wichita for three more innings before his season came to a close. The righty has an incredibly deep pitch mix featuring a low-to-mid 90s four seam and two seam fastball, the latter of which averages 13.1 inches of horizontal break, as well as a cutter, slider, curve, changeup, and split-finger fastball. While his breaking balls spin at more than 3,000 rotations per minute, he has struggled with control throughout his career posting a lowly 60.1% strike rate in 2024. His struggles with control notwithstanding, the Twins sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he posted a 5.56 ERA and a 10:7 K:BB ratio in 11 ⅓ innings of work. Now, he’ll look to get an appearance in the 18th annual Arizona Fall League Fall Stars game with first pitch set for 7:00 pm CDT on Saturday, November 9th. View full article

The St. Louis Cardinals are selling and this Gold Glover is a cheaper, more controllable, and maybe even better version of Willi Castro. Should the Twins tango with the Cards? View full video

The long wait for the arrival of MLB Trade Rumors’s Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions is over! Who was predicted to land with the Twins? (Hint: It wasn’t Juan Soto.) Image courtesy of Left: © John Geliebter-Imagn Images, Right: © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images MLBTR’s annual Top 50 Free Agents with Predictions is one of my favorite offseason releases, as we put on our GM caps and start creating the first drafts of our offseason blueprints. Before we get into the predictions, be reminded of a few things that may impact the Twins' spending this offseason: Prior to the next two pieces of news, Twins ownership stated that they would not actively look to decrease payroll but that they also don’t expect it to increase. They found a short-term solution to their broadcasting issues by offering a direct-to-consumer streaming option via MLB.tv. They announced they were exploring a sale of the team. The Twins payroll for the 2024 season was about $125 million, and based on the three facts above, we can anticipate the 2025 payroll to come in around that same number. As of right now, if they were to tender all of their arbitration-eligible players, they are sitting around $135 million, leaving them with really no room to add free agents given the facts above. That is to say, if they plan on adding via free agency, then they’ll need to non-tender one or more of their arbitration-eligible players and/or make a trade. While those decisions aren’t part of the predictions, two different writers with MLBTR have predicted a reliever to land with the Twins, so there must be some thought that they won’t just sit on their hands this offseason. Now, let’s look at the two players predicted to join the Twins. #40 RP Andrew Kittredge The MLBTR team predicts Kittredge to get a two-year, $14-million deal, and Anthony Franco sees the 34-year-old right-handed reliever as one of the solutions to the gaps in the Minnesota bullpen. Next year will be Kittredge’s ninth season in Major League Baseball. He's accrued 2.2 fWAR across 240 relief appearances and 15 starts to date. As a low- to medium-leverage reliever for much of his career, he's pitched to a 3.26 ERA, with a 3.78 FIP and a 16.3% K-BB rate, leveraging a slider and sinker more than 80% of the time. Kittredge entered 2024 having missed a majority of the two previous seasons with various injuries, but bounced back nicely with a 2.80 ERA and matched his career K-BB rate across 70 ⅔ innings of relief for the St. Louis Cardinals. While his FIP may suggest some regression, he was in the 69th and 100th percentile for whiff and chase rates, respectively, suggesting a strikeout rate north of his career average (around 23%) may be in play moving forward. #48 LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara So, nobody formally predicted Ogasawara to the Twins, but they were mentioned at the end of his writeup—along with half a dozen other teams—as a team that “might feel this is a chance to land an Erick Fedde-esque bargain.” There are questions surrounding the 27-year-old left-handed starter, primarily around the quality of his offerings and his ability to be successful against Major League hitters. I would be absolutely stunned if Ogasawara was wearing Twins colors next season, but for what it’s worth, the team at MLBTR predicted him to earn $12 million over two years. #50 RHP Spencer Turnbull Another reliever? Well... maybe. This time, Steve Adams predicts an aging right-handed pitcher with an injury history to land with the Twins but only on a one-year, $7-million deal. Turnbull will be 32 by the time next season rolls around, and coming back from a lat strain that sidelined from the end of June to the end of the year. Prior to May of this past season, Turnbull had explicitly been a starter throughout his career, but he transitioned to the bullpen for two months prior to the season ending injury. I don’t see the Twins needing him in a starter’s role outside of maybe a spot start here and there, so I’d envision him coming out of the bullpen like he had for the Philadelphia Phillies. While the sample is small, in 20 innings of relief, he posted a 4.05 ERA / 4.17 FIP and a 14.1% K-BB rate featuring a four-seam fastball and sweeper combo for more than 80% of his pitches. Unlike Kittredge, his Savant profile doesn’t hold promise that brighter days could be ahead, but it doesn’t suggest much regression either. I do wonder if better utilization of his pitch mix would lead to better results, he only threw his curveball nine percent of the time, yet it generated an opponent batting average of .067 whereas opponents hit .351 off his fastball. If you’re let down after reading those predictions, I don’t know what to tell you. Given the constraints the front office is under, they will once again be bargain-hunting to fill the gaps in their bullpen. Typically, pitchers are in the bargain bin because they’re either not productive, have an injury history, or both. In this case, we have two solid relief options that come with injury risk. Neither of these guys would move the needle too much, but either would be a nice addition to the front end of the bullpen. Do you like either of these names as relatively cheap fliers? Is there anyone else on the list you’d realistically think the Twins could target? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to cut payroll and have a super-utility player who is cheaper, more controllable, and arguably an upgrade over Willi Castro. While the Twins aren’t looking to cut payroll, acquiring this former Gold Glove winner could help fill plenty of holes and give the team more club control to boot. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images The Cardinals are already waving the white towel for the 2025 season, and look poised to sell off a lot of big names to rebuild their farm system. Big names already mentioned in swirling rumors include Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Sonny Gray, among others. But super-utility player Brendan Donovan could provide a very good return, too. He’s relatively cheap, entering his first year of arbitration (where Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects him to get $4 million), but he might still be available as the Cards undertake a broad-scale reshuffling. Let’s take a look at what the 28-year-old brings to the table, and how he could help the Twins. Donovan just completed his third season and has a career slash line of .280/.364/.407, with 30 home runs and 12 stolen bases in just under 1,500 plate appearances. He boasts an absurdly low strikeout rate, thanks to impressive bat control that makes up for below-average bat speed and hard-hit rates. To wit, he has a 77th-percentile launch angle sweet-spot rate, despite a 24th-percentile barrel rate. He overcame a low walk rate by posting elite zone contact, chase, and whiff rates, which led to him batting in key positions in the Cardinals lineup. A left-handed hitter, Donovan has traditional splits at the plate, performing better against right-handed pitching and typically batting leadoff when St. Louis faces a righty starter. That said, with a career 94 wRC+ against lefties, he’s more than serviceable against southpaws and typically found himself batting in the middle third of the order when they were on the mound. While he seems to flourish a little lower in the order, he carried a .702 OPS out of the leadoff spot against right-handed pitching in 2024. As a reference, the Twins as a team had a .662 OPS in similar circumstances in 2024, with a strikeout rate 10 percentage points higher than Donovan’s. Overall, the former 7th-round pick’s 2024 offensive production was arguably better than that of any Twins player, and his consistency would have been valuable in an offense that had the third-most variance in runs scored per game in all of baseball. But, wait…there’s more! Like Willi Castro, Donovan was a 2024 Rawlings Gold Glove Finalist as a utility player, but lost out to Jared Triolo of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Last season, Donovan played three different positions (primarily second base and left field) across 153 games, but is only a season removed from contributing at six different positions. Throughout his career, Donovan has graded out as a plus defender at third base and both corner outfield spots, a slightly below-average defender at the keystone, and firmly below average at first base and shortstop. Specifically in 2024, he posted career bests at second with a 1.7 UZR/150, five outs above average (OOA), and 3% success rate added. As I mentioned, Donovan is a plus defender at both corner outfield spots and could be an overall upgrade over Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach at this point in their careers. He does profile similarly to the two incumbent Twins, as lefties with traditional splits, and doesn’t have the arm strength that Wallner showcases, but his versatility would allow Rocco Baldelli to play to his players' strengths—as Larnach, in particular, has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. Alas, Donovan has never played an inning in center field, so the Twins would have to rely on Austin Martin or DeShawn Kiersey Jr. to spell Byron Buxton in the event of an injury. I’m not going to get into what it would cost to add Donovan, as I never feel confident in trying to predict that type of stuff, but given his production and team control it’s going to be something significant. Maybe the team could draw from its second tier of rising pitching prospects; the Cardinals are hungry for young hurlers with more upside than their current group. Regardless, Donovan's versatility is a perfect match with the philosophy of this organization, and his consistency would be a welcome sight to a rollercoaster offense. Given the financial constraints the front office faces, giving up distant prospects for cheap, major league-ready production is essential to being successful. Trading for Donovan would probably mean moving on from Castro, but getting extra team control, a few more dollars to spend, and a bit more stability in the bargain. Are you interested in Brendan Donovan? What would you give up to get him? View full article