Matthew Lenz

While rumors of Kelley Jansen being in the market have been swirling since the offseason, it may have been assumed he was off the market considering the Red Sox unexpected success in 2024. Instead, Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote that rival executives believe "...there could be 'buyer-to-buyer' type trade this year..." While the price tag is hefty in both salary and player capital, the former elite reliever has done exceptional this year sporting a 2.30/2.13 ERA/FIP with a 19.1-percent K-BB and locking down 15/16 save opportunities. He would be an expensive but great addition for any team who needs bullpen help. While relievers are volatile creatures, it's an added bonus that an acquiring team would only be tied to him for this season. Cover photo credit: © Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports View full rumor

UPDATE via MLB Trade Rumors: Royals Prioritizing Bullpen Help Over Outfield Bat

This alone wouldn't, but my take is you can improve the bullpen with a move like this and use the prospect capital to make a splash elsewhere.

Fulmer wasn't great by any means but a 3.70 ERA (Duran's is currently 3.91) in 24 1/3 innings where half of the ER came in two innings seems fairly serviceable to me. TBH that's exactly the type of addition I want for the bullpen...make a bigger "splash" elsewhere.

How would we know that?

100%. Keep the prospect capital and take a flier on a guy!

While I agree with your premise, the low leverage end of our bullpen isn't working and currently are guys that don't have the surface stats or under the hood metrics to think things are going to turn around. There's nobody currently in our minors that would have a large impact on our bullpen.

The low leverage end of the bullpen has been brutal and is continuously being shuttled back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. Obviously, "buy low" indicates the need for some positive regression but couldn't disagree more that these guys wouldn't help bridge the gap between our starters and the high leverage guys.

Recently, we looked at players from the New York Mets whom the Twins could target in a deal. One of those names was Adam Ottavino, whose surface stats are ugly, but peripherals suggest some bad luck and positive regression. Along with Ottavino, let’s look at three more “buy low” relievers available via trade. Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports The Twins need some relief help, but you rarely want to pay for that help. Even acquiring an established, elite reliever like Emmanuel Clase would require more prospect capital than I’m comfortable with, and history shows extreme volatility for anyone who isn’t a top-tier reliever (see Lopez, Jorge). Instead, give me a guy who, like Ottavino, looks like a DFA candidate on the surface but shows some promise “under the hood.” A reliever like that likely costs a low-level prospect years away from making any potential impact. For example, let’s look back at the Jorge Lopez trade, where Cade Povich was a borderline top 30 organizational prospect at high A, Yennier Cano was considered a cast-off, and Juan Nunez was and still is a relatively unknown name. And again, at the time, Lopez was one of the hottest names on the market…a “buy low” guy should theoretically cost far less. So, with all that said, here are three guys I like as buy-low options for our Minnesota Twins. LHP Andrew Chafin (DET) While it’s not common for teams to trade within the division, it’s also not out of the question when you’re talking about relatively low-impact guys. Moreover, the Tigers are not super close to completing, so dealing with Andrew Chafin isn’t likely to come back and bite them in a hypothetical divisional race in the short-term future. Chafin has had a tough go over his last two years after looking like one of the better relievers in the game in for most of the 2017 through 2022 seasons. Since 2023, he’s posted a 4.66 ERA and a 15.9% K-BB rate despite striking out more than a quarter of the batters he has faced and limiting hard contact. His FIP, SIERA, and expected stats tell the story of someone who should have gotten better results over the last two years. Multiple rest-of-season projection systems agree that the 34-year-old lefty is due for some positive regression. Two things that stand out for me as possible reasons for his struggles are poor walk and barrel rates, which I think can somewhat go hand in hand. It’s not far-fetched to believe that a pitcher who is struggling with control finds themselves in unfavorable counts where they need to target the middle of the zone to avoid a walk. A considerable hesitation with Chafin for me is that not even the Milwaukee Brewers could get him on the right track last season. And if they can’t, then maybe the once reliable reliever is just another example of the seemingly unpredictable volatility of the position. RHP Ryan Pressly (HOU) Speaking of unpredictable downfalls, old friend Ryan Pressly might find himself available at the deadline thanks to the Houston Astros surprising struggles so far this season. The former Twins middling reliever turned Astros elite closer is sporting a 4.82 ERA this year in part thanks to an increased walk rate and a BABIP just under .400. While he’s not quite the overpowering strikeout arm he once was, he still throws the chair at an above average 28.3-percent of batters, and is still very good a limiting the long ball. Throughout his Astros career, Pressly has been know to have one of the best sliders in the game but that same pitch has been largely ineffective in 2024 despite having much of the same spin rate and movement profile.It also looks like the 35-year-old relieve has toyed with a sinker this year, which has been a point of emphasis for some Twins pitchers, and a reunion could bode well to establish that pitch. The hang-up with Pressly is the prorated $14,000,000 salary, but a mutual option for 2025 may make that roughly $5,000,000 amount an easier pill to swallow. RHP Tyler Kinley (COL) Unlike the previous names mentioned, the underlying metrics and projection systems aren’t a big fan of a bounce back for the Colorado Rockies match-up based closer. But he makes my list because his slider, which let him down in 2024, has a history of being practical and gives hitters a different look than they’re used to. In addition to his slider, his mid 90’s fastball showed promise in a limited sample in 2022 but has been a bad pitch for him in the two years since. Developing a sinker and teaching Kinley to create more extension, where he is currently in the third percentile of all pitchers, could turn this into an average or better pitch to pair with a good slider. Lastly, moving away from Coors Field would help the 33-year-old righty, an extreme fly ball pitcher. While Kinley would be a bit more of a project, he is under team control through 2026 and his totally salary accumulates to less than $9,000,000 if he were to stay with the team for the next two plus seasons. Given the amount of work it would take to make him effective, I think the Twins could get him for very cheap. To be taken seriously, the Twins must make multiple moves at the deadline, but making a “splash” add to the bullpen isn’t the move. Instead, they need to use their prospect capital to improve the lineup or even rotation, and take a flier on a lesser commodity for the bullpen. What are your thoughts on the names above? Is there another “buy-low” candidate you’d be interested in the club taking a chance on? Join me in the comments below! View full article

Lately, we've been covering teams who the Twins could make a deal with to make up ground and win the division. Or, at the very least, stay at the top of the Wild Card standings. Well, assuming they will be buyers, they are not the only AL Central team looking for the same results. Per The Windup Podcast and shared by MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals GM (J.J. Picollo) revealed that the Royals will be in search of bullpen and utility depth. The Royals bullpen ranks near in the bottom third of the league in WAR, ERA, K rate, and BB rate. While we think the Twins are in need of bullpen help, the Royals have a far greater need but don't have the farm system to match the asking price of some of the power arms that may be available in a month. On the offensive end, the Royals are similar to the Twins in that they love to play matchups and splits. While they need OF help specifically, Picollo noted that they're looking for utility bats that can deepen their bench and fit with their matchup based philosophy. Unlike the bullpen, the Twins and Royals likely won't in the market for the same offensive additions in the trade market. View full rumor

Idk why but I've totally talked myself into Manaea

I agree with you and know I'm being unreasonable with my comment about their recent trades, but it's been a hard pill to swallow lately haha

We've seen what this offense is capable of. With how it's built, there is going to be the peaks and valleys...what's to say a peak doesn't come in October and they make a run?

I definitely agree with you on JD Martinez but, while Nelly Cruz did well for us, I just don't think it's realistic with his specific roster construction.

Thanks to an abysmal month of May that saw them go 9-19, the New York Mets are seven games under .500 and firmly out of the NL East picture. That said, as of this writing, they find themselves just three games out of a Wild Card spot, so it's still not certain whether they will be sellers next month. Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports If the Mets do sell, there are surely pieces on whom the Minnesota Twins need to kick the tires, and nobody sticks out more than their power-hitting first basemen. I’m going to bow out of writing more on Pete Alonso, though, and direct you to a great read on this very topic by our very own, Cody Christie. The only thing worth adding, since that piece was written at the beginning of the month, is that the need is even greater after the demotion of Alex Kirilloff. So who else is there? Let's start by looking at some pitching help. Let me preface this section with my belief that you can never have enough pitching--like, ever. So, while David Festa looks to be nearly ready for his crack at the big-league rotation, I'm hoping the Twins acquire a back-end or better arm, even if that pushes his debut into 2025. Starting Pitchers While acquiring a back-end arm may not be overly helpful in the postseason, the team needs to get there first. The Mets have two starting arms on expiring deals on whom I'd expect the Minnesota front office to call. At the top of that list is the same pitcher the Twins chased from the 2017 Wild Card game against the Yankees, in righthander Luis Severino. Severino has struggled through injuries over the five seasons leading up to 2024, but he's regained his pre-2019 form this season, posting a 3.25/3.73 ERA/FIP over 12 starts wherein he's averaged 6.0 innings per start. Given his production and the relatively cheap cost, he likely will fetch a pretty solid return in a competitive market. Because of the injury history, likely demand, and the recent track record of Twins trading prospects for pitchers, I’m probably out on Severino, but I can't say he's not intriguing. Less productive, for a similar amount of money and with a player option for 2025, is Sean Manaea. While his surface stats aren't great (with a 4.30/3.79 ERA/FIP) and his expected stats suggest potential regression, he'd still be an upgrade over the current options the Twins have for the back of their rotation. I like him as an upgrade, because he really fits the Twins' mold. He has elite extension, a plus sinker, and a sweeper that has been effective in the past. This type of pitcher (see Joe Ryan and Pablo López) is a perfect fit. The Twins' coaching staff should be able to get the most out of his arsenal and bring him back to something like the pitcher he was with the Oakland Athletics. Relief Pitchers Adam Ottavino has been a solid (though usually unspectacular) reliever across 11 big-league seasons. His expected stats and projection models scream for positive regression in the ERA department, and he's posting a very solid K-BB% of 22.2. Aside from Griffin Jax, the Twins bullpen has been unreliable--especially the low-leverage end of the bullpen, which has been like a State Fair shuttle, traveling non-stop between Target Field and CHS Field. Search Ottavino's name on Twitter, and you'll find myriad tweets demanding that he be designated for assignment. While I don't think that's likely, I think he could be had fairly cheaply, compared to the starters named above. Hitters The Twins are very much in need of a left-handed bat (of which, alas, the Mets don't have much to offer) and help in the outfield. The only name on an expiring contract that really makes some sense here is Harrison Bader, as a Manuel Margot replacement and Byron Buxton insurance. While it doesn't move the needle, Bader would absolutely be an upgrade over Margot on both sides of the ball. Per wRC+, he's basically been a league-average contributor in 2024 and sports a .697 OPS, with respectable strikeout and walk rates. I wouldn't hate the move, assuming the cost is fair, but it can't be the only move the Twins make. Staying in the grass, Starling Marte is having a bit of a renaissance, but he's owed nearly $21 million next season when he’ll be in his age-36 season. Moving out of the outfield (and actually completely off the diamond), J.D. Martinez is back from injury and is performing well. That said, a DH-only player doesn't neatly fit into the roster construction and platoon-heavy approach this staff employs. At the end of the day, the only two names that I think move the needle and would cost a price I'm willing to pay are Manaea and Ottavino. In my opinion, Severino will cost too much, Bader doesn't do much to improve the club, Marte’s salary is too much for a team on a “budget”, and J.D. Martinez doesn't fit. What are your thoughts on the names mentioned above? Is there anyone else you'd be interested in the Twins adding? Join me in the comments! View full article

The Minnesota Timberwolves are set to tip off in a winner-take-all Game 7 against the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets on Sunday. The Minnesota Twins have played in five such games, sporting a 3-2 record in 15 playoff appearances across 62 full seasons. Let’s take a look back at each winner-take-all game. Image courtesy of Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports (Sandy Koufax statue) 2017 Wild Card at New York Yankees The 85-77 Minnesota Twins traveled to Yankee Stadium to take on the 91-71 New York Yankees. Two All-Star and Cy Young vote-getters in Ervin Santana and Luis Severino were the announced starting pitchers against two of the more formidable offenses in all of baseball. Despite the pitchers headlining the match up, the offenses came out swinging. Brian Dozier led off with a solo home run on a 3-1 mistake from the right-handed Severino. Three batters later, Eddie Rosario extended the lead with a two-run shot of his own after a Joe Mauer foul pop out and Jorge Polanco walk. In an all too familiar fashion, the 3-0 lead quickly disappeared in the bottom of the first when Yankees shortstop, Didi Gregorius pulled a low-and-away fastball into the right field bleachers knotting the game at three runs apiece. The Yankees would tack on another run half of a Brett Gardner solo homer in the bottom of the second. The Twins responded right away when Byron Buxton grounded into a fielder's choice in the third. Yet, once again, the Yankees respond right away when Greg Bird singles home Gary Sánchez in the bottom of half of the inning. It was all Yankees from there as they would go onto tack on an additional three runs, and the twins offense was shut down by David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle for 5 ⅔ innings. With a final score of 8-4, the Twins were eliminated from the 2017 postseason. 2002 Division Series at Oakland Athletics The Minnesota Twins won the Central division with 94 wins and were pitted against the Oakland Athletics, whose season would be turned into a movie titled “Moneyball." Brad Radke and Mark Mulder would take the bump for their respective teams for the second time in the series. The game was largely a pitchers duel with Radke giving up one run over 6 ⅔ innings and Mulder giving up two runs over seven innings. The Twins had a 2-1 advantage heading into the final inning when A.J. Pierzynski extended the lead to 4-1 with a two-run home run. David “Big Papi” Ortiz added a fifth run with an RBI double, and the Twins were near locks to win as they sent out All-Star and MVP vote-getter “Everyday” Eddie Guardado to close out the game and series. Of course, it couldn’t be that easy. The middle of the Oakland lineup went single, groundout, and double before Mark Ellis stepped to that plate and made the game 5-4 with a three-run shot. Fortunately, it was too little too late for the A’s as they went fly ball, single, and foul pop out to end things at a score of 5-4 and the Twins advancing. 1991 World Series vs Atlanta Braves Do we really need to chronicle the best game of the greatest World Series in Major League Baseball history? I mean, it doesn’t get old, so why not. After a back-and-forth series and the famous “and we’ll see you tomorrow night” Kirby Puckett walk-off, the Twins and Braves were set for the first World Series Game 7 in four seasons (more on that in a minute). The offenses would combined to go 1-for-17 with runners in scoring positions and the starting pitchers, John Smoltz and Jack Morris, would combine to throw 16 innings of zero-run baseball. Famously, Twins starter Jack Morris threw a complete game going 10 innings before Gene Larkin hit a deep fly ball to score Dan Gladden in the home half of the inning. 1987 World Series v St. Louis Cardinals Win or lose in Game 7, the 1987 season was special for the Twins who upped their win total by 14 games from 1986. They held off the streaking Toronto Blue Jays to win the American League West division and dismantled the 98-win Detroit Tigers in the ALCS to reach the World Series. With the home team winning the first six games of the series, the Twins had the edge playing in the Dome … somewhere they hadn’t lost a game in nearly a month. The Cardinals got out to a 2-0 lead early after two RBI singles off of Twins starter, Frank Viola, in the top of the second. The Twins answered back with a run of their own in the bottom half of the inning off a Steve Lombardozzi RBI single, and would eventually tie it in the home half of the fifth with an RBI double off the bat of Kirby Puckett. While Viola would continue to roll, the Twins took a one-run lead thanks to a bases loaded hit by Greg Gagne in the sixth and extended that lead after an RBI double from Gladden in the eighth. Leading the game 4-2, the Twins turned to their closer, Jeff Reardon, in the top of the ninth. Facing the heart of the Cardinals lineup, Reardon sat down the side in order and clinched the game and series for the Minnesota Twins. 1965 World Series v Los Angeles Dodgers The 1965 Twins were the best team in baseball and, arguably, the greatest Twins team ever. After winning 102 games in the regular season, they were pitted against the National League champion, Los Angeles Dodgers. Like 1987, the home team won the first six games, and game seven would be the third time Jim Kaat and Sandy Koufax would go toe-to-toe in the series. With Kaat winning Game 2 and Koufax winning Game 5, something had to give in Game 7. Both pitchers mostly cruised through the first three innings, although the Dodgers threatened to break the 0-0 tie in the third before Kaat got Willie Davis to pop out to catcher, Earl Battey, to end the threat. Unfortunately, Lou Johnson would break the seal with a lead off home run in the fourth, and the Dodgers knocked Kaat out of the game two batters later after a double and run-scoring single made the game 2-0. The Twins would put together a threat of their own in the bottom of the fifth, but back-to-back ground outs with runners on first and second ended the threat and the inning. From that point forward, only Harmon Killebrew would reach base by way of a single in the bottom of the ninth. Killebrew got left on first after back-to-back strikeouts from Battey and Bob Allison, clinching the game and series for Dodgers. The final line for Koufax was nine innings pitched, zero runs, 10 strike outs, and just six baserunners allowed. So there you have it, a quick recap of each of the Twins winner-take-all postseason games. Do you have any personal anecdotes from any of these games? Do you think the Wolves will win on Sunday? View full article

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