Matthew Lenz

Simeon Woods-Richardson is coming off a mostly successful rookie year. Can one pitch be the key to him taking another step as a starting pitcher? View full video

The Minnesota Twins had a top-10 offense in baseball, which is impressive considering their month-and-a-half-long slump to end the season. Their depth of positional players, especially on the dirt, gives them the flexibility to sell high on one of their young corner infielders. Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images José Miranda was a relatively unheralded prospect prior to his 2021 breakout with the Twins' Double- and Triple-A affiliates. He carried that success into 2022, where he slashed .268/.325/.426 in 125 games, but then struggled in 2023, largely due to a shoulder injury that hampered him for most of the season. Entering his age-26 season, many wondered if he was a two-year wonder, or if he could re-establish himself as a long-term fixture in the middle of the Twins lineup. A month into the 2024 season, Miranda quickly answered the bell. Through Aug. 17—prior, in other words, to the entire offense collapsing—Miranda slashed .308/.348/.490, with an impressive 14.3% K rate and a 137 wRC+. While he didn’t show the over-the-fence power he flashed in the minors in 2021 and in the bigs in 2022, he still provided plenty of gap-to-gap power, with 26 doubles and even two triples. While being one of the most consistent offensive contributors, he left more to be desired with his glove. Like, a lot more. According to Baseball Savant, Miranda had the third-worst Fielding Run Value of any third baseman who played at least 500 innings. He had an even 0 FRV in a much smaller sample at first base, but in 2022, he posted a -4 there. In short, while Miranda was one of the best contributors at the plate, he’s a well-below-average player in the field, on a team that already has too many question marks around the diamond. Eduoard Julien, Alex Kirilloff, Brooks Lee, Austin Martin, Michael Helman, and even Royce Lewis are other infielders on the big-league roster with average or worse gloves, and that doesn’t even include Yunior Severino, who was added to the 40-man roster last winter as another positionless infield slugger. While Lee and Lewis would return significantly more value than Miranda in trades, they are centerpieces of the Twins' current competitive window, as former first-round picks who are just 23 and 25, respectively. Moreover, their gloves also are far more passable and versatile; they're more likely to stay in defensive lineups throughout their big league careers. Miranda may be better off as a DH as he ages. Young, above-average hitters are always going to be valuable and have a job in Major League Baseball, so (despite his shortcomings in the field) I believe that Miranda would have quite a few suitors of the Twins shopped him around this offseason. One caveat to add is that any player acquired in a trade is likely going to be more expensive than Miranda, who will be in his final pre-arbitration year and make around $800,000, but the Twins also have arbitration decisions to make on a handful of relievers who are projected to earn over $10 million via arbitration in total. If they can make a move on Miranda prior to the mid-November tender deadline, they will have better line of sight into which of those relievers they can “afford” to tender and which ones they may need to let walk. That also doesn’t take into account the roughly $3 million raise that Willi Castro is projected to get in 2025, and how those funds could be repurposed to fill an area of need if they decide to move on from the super-utility player. Miranda's value might be in the sweet spot, where the Twins can get something helpful and shake up their positional group for 2025 without losing a player they view as indispensable. Much depends on how other segments of the market take shape in the weeks ahead, but this possibility bears watching. Would you trade José Miranda or one of the other utility infielders mentioned in this article? If so, what position would you target? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

I wouldn't hate a sign and trade at all, but I wonder how much last year impacts them. It very much seemed (and may have been confirmed) that the Twins only tendered him assuming they could trade him. Now, Willi would be a more attractive option to teams but nonetheless have to wonder if the Twins are too riks adverse after last year.

The Minnesota Twins will have a tough arbitration decision to make regarding Willi Castro next month. While the decision comes down to dollars more than production, could the Twins get more bang for their buck by non-tendering Castro? Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Willi Castro has arguably been the Twins' most valuable player for two years running. He’s played passable defense (or better) at six of the eight defensive positions; that led to him getting votes for a Gold Glove Award in 2024. The crafty righthander has even given the team 3 ⅔ shutout innings on the mound. Over the last two seasons, he has 916 at-bats, boasting a .251/.334/.395 slash line with 80 extra-base hits, 94 RBIs, and 47 stolen bases, all while carrying a 23.9% K rate and 8.1% BB rate. Castro’s journey to the Minnesota Twins has been well-documented: After four-ish below-average seasonswith the Tigers, he was non-tendered in November 2022, and a month later, the Twins signed him to a minor-league deal. He’s the ultimate underdog story and, boy, do people love rooting for an underdog. But sometimes that story can blind us from reality, as was the case with Randy Dobnak and Willians Astudillo. Those two guys were easy to root for and fun to watch, but even when the production waned, we heard plenty of fans clamoring for bigger roles because of their backstories. Could the same thing be happening with Castro? Could the Twins be better served to non-tender Castro and replace his production through multiple avenues? Admittedly, prior to reading Nick Nelson’s tweet, I thought it was a no-brainer that Minnesota would bring Castro back. After all, FanGraphs values his production at $43.6 million over the last two seasons, so how could you say no to a salary that is projected to be roughly a quarter of his annual worth? But Nick forced me to take off my underdog-colored glasses and really think about the value Castro provides, in the added context of the Twins' self-imposed salary cap. Why spend that much on a utility man with a 108 wRC+, when you could spend a fraction of that on a prospect to leave some room for reinforcements elsewhere? Or as Brad Pitt told us in Moneyball, the Twins may be better off trying to recreate him in the aggregate. Enter Yunior Severino. The 25-year-old Severino signed with the Twins back when he was a teenager, after the Braves were sanctioned for violations of IFA signing rules and he was declared a free agent for a second time. Despite posting above-average numbers from 2019-23 from Low A through Double A, the switch-hitter never really found himself gaining the prospect pedigree that you might expect of someone who keeps performing well at multiple levels. Regardless of what outsiders thought, the Twins viewed him as a valuable asset to the organization and (somewhat surprisingly) added him to the 40-man roster last November–protecting him from the Rule 5 draft. What did the Twins see that others didn’t? Well, we know that the Twins really, really value versatility. Throughout his minor-league career, Severino has bounced around the diamond, seeing time at every position aside from pitcher and catcher. More recently, looking at the 2024 season, the utility man saw time at first base, third base, and right field. Various scouting reports indicate that his defense is not a strength, evidenced by his positional versatility shrinking with each season. That said, he can play mostly anywhere if it’s needed, and when you have a bat like his, there is value in that. With the St. Paul Saints, Severino had a .254/.342/.434 slash line, with 21 homers and a solid 12% walk rate. His plate discipline and swing decisions are very solid and, while strikeouts have been a concern over his career, a 27.3% K rate in 2024 is an improvement compared to his stint at the same level in 2023. The elevated strikeout rate can be partially attributed to his all-or-nothing approach at the plate, as he has a below-average contact rate of 66.7%. But, once again, that number is an improvement over what we saw in 2023, which is encouraging to see from a prospect. So, can Severino really be considered a Willi Castro replacement? Short answer: no. But there’s more nuance than that – it’s not black and white. Again, this comes back to money. While Severino is a clear downgrade from Castro, if the Twins elect to “save” money here allowing them to spend elsewhere, then we could be looking at a situation where they’re getting more bang for their buck. Instead of paying "just" Castro, what if the Twins can pay Severino, plus one or two relief arms that help bridge the gap between the starters and the back end of the bullpen? What if, given the versatility of Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, and José Miranda (in addition to Severino), there is less of a need for super utility than there was the last two seasons? Going back to Moneyball, the Twins shouldn’t be focusing on how they can replace Castro, but how they can recreate him in the aggregate. With that in mind, I no longer think that Castro is a lock to be on the Twins' 2025 roster. In fact, I may have been swayed to the other side of the argument. While his contributions have been more than expected and greatly appreciated, maybe it makes the most sense to non-tender him in a month and find value elsewhere. What would you do in this situation? Join the conversation in the comments! View full article

Fans were largely frustrated with the Twins' offensive inconsistency and, especially, their ineptitude over the last month and a half of the season. Let's take a look at how they fared against the four most common pitch types they saw in 2024. Image courtesy of © Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images I used a search query on Baseball Savant to find the four most frequent pitches Twins batters faced, and looked at a variety of stats you’ll see referenced throughout. For those unfamiliar with some of Savant’s more advanced stats, I wanted to provide some definitions from their site. Weight On-Base Average (wOBA) takes into account outcomes on contact, walks, and strikeouts. Run value is the run impact of an event based on runners on base, outs, and ball-and-strike count. Alright, let's get into it. Fastball - 31.4% of pitches seen The Twins were a good team against four-seam fastballs in 2024, ranking in the top 10 in batting average, slugging, and wOBA against the offering. Byron Buxton led the way with a run value of 12, a slugging percentage of .657, and a wOBA of .440, and finished second on the team with eight home runs – four behind Carlos Santana. Carlos Correa batted .338 on the pitch, 28th-best in all of baseball, while Buxton finished second on the team at .324. Kyle Farmer was the worst fastball hitter on the team, with a -9 run value and .189 batting average. He saw the pitch a team-leading 37.6% of the time. Pitchers had a scouting report on Farmer, and he wasn’t able to confound it. T1FkclJfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGdjSFZsRUdBZ3NBQ1ZOVEJRQUFVQUpWQUZrQVYxWUFWRklCQWdJTkJGRUdWZ0FD.mp4 Slider - 22.3% of pitches seen The Twins actually performed better against sliders, ranking in the top seven in the following categories: run value, batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA. Despite their success, opposing pitchers fed them sliders 22.3% of the time – good for 6th-most in all of baseball. Correa was the team leader in batting average (.386), slugging percentage (.579), wOBA (.438), and run value (12), and was one of the best hitters in all of baseball against the offering. Carlos Santana was the worst hitter, sporting a .158 batting average, a .263 slugging percentage, and -6 run value, despite seeing the 3rd-fewest sliders on the team and all those sliders breaking toward him, as a switch-hitter. eFoxNkRfWGw0TUFRPT1fVndoVFhGSlJVZ0FBWEZzQlZnQUFCVk5RQUFCVEFsTUFVMUpYQTFZTVVndFVBRlpl.mp4 Sinker - 13.5% of pitches seen The Twins' biggest weakness this year was handling the sinker, or two-seam fastball. Fortunately, they saw the offering the second-fewest times in all of baseball, as they ranked in the bottom nine teams in run value, batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA. Interestingly enough, the team whiffed on just 14.1% of the sinkers they saw. Their lousy production, then, indicates poor contact. The team's limited success came from a variety of sources, with Trevor Larnach batting .395 and posting a .420 wOBA against the pitch; Royce Lewis slugging .590; and Correa accruing a run value of 7. Ryan Jeffers struggled mightily, posting a run value of -12--twice as damaging as the next-worst production of -6, by famed pinch-hitter Manuel Margot. NjQxdjRfWGw0TUFRPT1fQkFOUVZRWUJBbE1BQVZVQkF3QUFBbGRSQUFOVVVBQUFVVkFGQUFzSFVnTUVCQU1F.mp4 Changeup - 11.2% of pitches seen The Twins finished in the middle third of teams against the changeup, with a .240 batting average (11th), .386 slugging percentage (19th), and .287 wOBA (13th), but did finish ninth with a run value of 14. Jeffers found the most success, with a team-leading .718 slugging percentage, a .443 wOBA, and a run value of 7, tied with Santana for the best on the roster. Manuel Margot led the way with a .333 batting average. Larnach had the most troubles when opposing pitchers pulled the string, with a .210 batting average, .242 slugging percentage, .209 wOBA, and a run value of -5. That said, Byron Buxton wasn't much better. He posted the worst batting average against cambios, at .175, and ranked toward the bottom of the team in all other categories. WGczeDJfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0JGZFZCVndGQUZBQVdsQUJBQUFBQnc1VkFBTlhVMUlBVVFBQVV3Y0hVRkVCVXdKZQ==.mp4 Overall, the Twins finished with the 10th-highest batting run value in all of baseball. That, in addition to their relative success against 64.9% of the pitches they saw (four-seam, slider, and changeup), would suggest their offense wasn't bad. In fact, it was pretty darn good. Even against all other offerings, including ones not addressed in this article, they finished 12th in run value. There's still room for valid frustration with their lack of offensive consistency, as the Twins had the third-highest standard deviation of runs scored on a game-by-game basis. The old adage tells us that “hitting is contagious”, and that’s ultimately what defined the 2024 Minnesota Twins offense. In terms of talent, though, it's good to remember that there's lots of room for hope. View full article

With one of the best farm systems in all of baseball, could the 2024 Detroit Tigers be a blueprint for future versions of the Minnesota Twins? Could exploring a sale of the team just be a ploy until the next wave of prospects are ready? Get your tin foil hats on and let’s dive in! Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images Recently, I reviewed the 2024 Detroit Tigers and noticed that they have just three players who are under guaranteed contracts heading in 2025. Despite a total payroll south of $100 million, the Tigers came within one game of the American League Championship Series – a series the Twins haven’t experienced since 2004. In fact, the 2024 Tigers share some pretty stark similarities with what the 2026 version of the Twins might look like: Both organizations have multi-year commitments to shortstops who are at least 30 years old. Both organizations have a starting pitcher under a sizable contract. Both organizations have very good farm systems with prospects who are big league-ready. This is why I think this year's Tigers could provide a blueprint for the roster construction of a future Twins teams. As of right now, the 2026 Twins have roughly $70 million guaranteed to Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Pablo López, while the rest of the roster could be composed of pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players – just like the 2024 Tigers. Self-imposed payroll restrictions aside, this isn’t an outlandish strategy, as we hope that Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews are mainstays by 2026 and current top prospects like Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Luke Keaschall are ready to contribute. So where does the news that the Pohlads are exploring a sale of the team fall into this? Got your tin foil hat ready For this exercise, let’s liken buying a Major League Baseball organization to buying a house. When you’re ready to put your house on the market, are you going to invest heavily into it? Unless your investment gives you a large return, say finishing the basement, it’s very unlikely. Remember when you thought it was a good idea to convert the garage into a bedroom? Well maybe undoing that will add some value back into the house. I mean, Minnesotans like their garages for winter. And to buyers with money to spend, what’s more attractive than a selling point like: “Sure, it needs some TLC, but that means YOU get to customize the house to your liking!” Prior to the Pohlads' big announcement, it was already widely assumed that the Twins' 2025 payroll would remain pretty similar to the 2024 payroll. While we weren’t anticipating another reduction in payroll, we also weren’t expecting the Twins to “finish their basement” in free agency, and any increase in payroll would come naturally, from arbitration-eligible players. Now that the Twins are allegedly for sale, it’s all but a lock that there will be no significant investment into the team this offseason. Moreover, while it’s all speculation at this point, our very own Cody Christie suggested "turning the bedroom back into a garage" by trading Pablo López to clean up the books. Not only would this make the organization look more valuable from a dollars perspective, but it would provide a new owner the opportunity to customize the team to their liking. While it would be hard to blame the Pohlads for standing pat and selling López, what if that’s just a ploy to make it to 2026? What if the Pohlads have little intention of selling, unless they’re swept off their feet? But instead, they have the positive PR from last week's announcement, which gives them a built-in and viable excuse for not investing in the team again this offseason. It also gives them an out if they do decide to trade an “expensive” player. What if they can just wait it out until 2026, when they have only $70 million committed to the payroll, or less if they “fix their garage,” and they can get away with a payroll around $130 million under the guise of promising, young talent? If I'm being honest, those are dots that are a little too easy to connect, even without my tin foil hat on. It wouldn't be good news, per se, and it's a needle they'd be trying to thread--after all, arbitration will make Lewis and company more expensive between now and then, even if they do stick around. But it wouldn't be the first potential team sale recently to turn out to be a slight head fake, and it would buy the maligned owners some time. Maybe the Pohlad family is rich enough even to buy that precious commodity. View full article

Week 1 of the AFL featured a standout per by Kala'i Rosario and good week from FCL prospect Ben Ross. Devin Kirby, Liam Rocha, and Kade Bragg all pitched well this week over a small body of work. View full video

After an improbable playoff appearance that fell one game short of a trip to the American League Championship Series, the upstart Detroit Tigers enter the 2024-25 offseason in a great place to build a dynasty. With a productive, young core and money to spend, they're a genuine threat to the Twins. Image courtesy of © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images On Aug. 5, FanGraphs had the Detroit Tigers at a 0.2% chance to make the playoffs; they were an underwhelming 53-60. From then through Sept. 27, the day they clinched the third American League Wild Card spot, the Tigers went 33-12. They finished the season with an 86-76 record. Let’s review how the unlikely season unfolded for the Tigers, and what they’ll be up to this offseason. 2024 Season Review The Tigers' calling card in the 2024 season was their pitching staff, headlined by a starting rotation that finished in the top 10 of teams in ERA, FIP, and K-BB% among a myriad of other categories. Their bullpen wasn’t quite as effective, but still ranked in the top half in a lot of the same categories composed of relievers who were largely deemed as less than desirable by Major League baseball. The back end of the bullpen was built with Jason Foley (2016 UDFA), Tyler Holton (waivers), Will Vest (returned Rule 5 pick), Shelby Miller (free agent), and Beau Brieske (2019 27th-round pick). That list doesn’t even include Sean Guenther, who was another waiver claim in 2022 from the Miami Marlins, or 2021 7th-round pick Brant Hurter. In short, the Tigers got a ton of value from a position that can be quite volatile and often seen as a risky investment. Looking at the starting rotation, they got career years from young starters Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson, who were 9th- and 13th-round picks, respectively. What might be most impressive is that they sold their best starter, Jack Flaherty, ahead of the trade deadline, but rookie Keider Montero filled in nicely, with a 3.33 ERA over 10 starts in August and September. Offensively, they were one of the youngest teams in baseball, with utility player Andy Ibáñez the only contributor north of 30 years old. 2019 1st-round pick Riley Greene led the way with an .827 OPS and 24 home runs. Matt Vierling, acquired in a trade last January, and Kerry Carpenter, a 2019 19th-round pick, were two more young contributors to an offense that finished in the bottom third in baseball in various categories. Where the youngsters lacked in hitting, they made up for in fielding, ranking 6th in Outs Above Average (23), led by center fielder Parker Meadows, their 2018 2nd-round pick. If there is one thing to take away, it’s that the Tigers did a phenomenal job developing and identifying talent to build the 2024 version of their club. So, let’s look at where they go from here. Looking Ahead to 2025 As would be expected from such a young team, the Tigers have a large number of pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players to make decisions on this winter. In fact, Javier Báez, Colt Keith, and Kenta Maeda are the only Tigers under guaranteed contracts for the 2025 season. In 2024, their payroll was 26th in baseball, sitting just under $100 million, which is about a 24% decrease from their average payroll for the previous two seasons. Given their payroll flexibility and the solid core that led to a playoff run, I’d expect the Tigers to be pretty active in this offseason’s free agency period. And based on this quote from Scott Harris, the President of Baseball Operations, the Tigers will be willing to spend if the talent is there. In the same presser, Harris identified the need to add a right-handed bat to an offense that finished with a 88 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, as well as add to the starting rotation and bullpen. As MLBTR points out, this free agent class fits the Tigers’ needs very well, with big names like Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, and Blake Snell headlining. One thing that could impact the bottom line is if the Tigers and some of their team-controlled players can come to an agreement to buy out arbitration years. Earlier this season, the Tigers and then top prospect Colt Keith agreed to a six-year, $28.6-million deal before he had even reached the big leagues. Any one of their pre-arbitration or arbitration-eligible players could follow suit and, given the precedent set with Keith, they could even look to lock up top prospects Jackson Jobe or Jace Jung. Those are just two names from a farm system that is ranked in the top 10 in baseball by multiple sources, although many of their other top names aren’t projected to contribute for another couple of years. Obviously, securing more years of Skubal's services would be wonderful, but he's about to win the AL Cy Young Award. Such an extension would be very expensive. It’s hard to know exactly what to expect from next year’s Detroit Tigers. Will they be the team that was seven games under .500 for the first four months of the season, or are they the team from the last two months--the one that finished with the second-most wins in baseball over that span? The answer is likely somewhere in between, and if I’m a Tigers fan, I am cautiously optimistic about 2025, while keeping in mind that player development is rarely linear. That said, supplementing the young core with productive veterans would go a long way in helping that development continue to improve. One way or another, the Twins can no longer hone in on the Guardians as their lone competition for the division. The Tigers (and Royals) are here to stay. View full article

As a preview to the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook--available exclusively to Caretakers as a series of in-depth articles on the site, this year--let’s take a look at the Minnesota Twins' in-house roster decisions heading into the 2024-2025 offseason. Image courtesy of © Geoff Burke-Imagn Images Every year, teams enter the offseason having to decide which arbitration-eligible players to tender, which pending free agents to make a qualifying offer to, and which prospects to protect from that offseason’s Rule 5 Draft. This offseason is no exception for the Minnesota Twins. While they do have some easy decisions to make, they also have some tough calls, and we’re going to preview them for you. Arbitration A couple weeks ago, MLB Trade Rumors posted their projected arbitration salaries for the upcoming season. Here are the team’s 13 eligible players: Eight of the 13 players are pretty much guaranteed to be tendered, but the other five are tough calls. Can they afford Willi Castro? Is Alex Kirilloff’s draft and prospect pedigree enough to overcome multiple years of injuries and inconsistent performance? Will the Twins see value in retaining Michael Tonkin, Justin Topa, or Jorge Alcalá for a combined $4.3 million, or will they explore cheaper (but riskier) relief options on the open market? They'll have to make all those decisions by roughly mid-November, when players must either be tendered arbitration or made free agents. Qualifying Offers Qualifying offers are limited to pending free agents who have never received one before and who spent the entire season on the Twins roster. This means the Twins have decisions to make on Max Kepler, Caleb Thielbar, and Anthony DeSclafani. They should be extremely easy decisions to make, but regardless, they are decisions that need to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. 40-Man Roster Until we know whom the Twins decide to tender, it's unclear how many 40-man spots will be available. There are two prospects in a tier of their own as would-be Rule 5-eligible players this fall, and they are 2020 4th- and 5th-round picks Marco Raya and Kala’i Rosario. There are some fringier players who are newly eligible whom the Twins will need to consider adding, or risk losing: Travis Adams, José Salas, Ricardo Velez, Christian MacLeod, Pierson Ohl, and Jaylen Nowlin. They also have players whom they previously left unprotected to consider, including: Will Holland, Jefferson Morales, Rubel Céspedes, and Ricardo Olivar. This is by no means a comprehensive list, but just some of the most likely names that are under consideration for protection ahead of the mid-November deadline. If they want to protect anyone beyond Raya and Rosario, they'll probably need to create an extra spot or two, which could mean an extra non-tender. If you were in a position to make these decisions, which players would you tender? Are you handing out any qualifying offers? Which prospect(s) are you protecting? Let us know in the comments, and stay tuned for more in-depth coverage in the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook! View full article

The White Sox, coming off a season of historic failure, look forward to putting the 2024 season in their rearview mirror. While an improvement in 2025 would be hard not to guarantee, do their fans have much of anything to look forward? Let's catch up on the state of the South Siders. Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images The White Sox finished the 2024 season with a Major League Baseball record 121 losses. Even a relatively strong finish and an attempt to avoid history, going 5-1 over their last six games and 10-15 in the month of September, couldn’t save them from what seemed inevitable. 2024 Season Review One of their lone bright spots was left-handed starter Garrett Crochet, who was the subject of endless trade speculation up to the deadline although no deal came to fruition. The 25-year-old Crochet, a 2020 1st round pick, transitioned into a starting role after two plus years of relief duty and posted a 3.58 ERA and 29.6 K-BB% across 146 innings. The White Sox also had solid production out of a few relief arms in Fraser Ellard, Prelander Berroa, Gus Varland, and Ron Marinaccio, but the foursome only combined for 92 ⅔ innings. Aside from those names, you likely won’t find a White Sox player who would define their individual season a success, including their position players. Chicago finished the season with MLB lows in OPS (.618, 61 points below the 2nd worst team) and HR (133), and they were in the bottom 5-10 teams in most other offensive categories. After a promising 2023 campaign, Luis Robert only played 100 games and finished with a career-low 0.5 WAR. The once promising bash-brother duo of Andrew Vaugn and Gavin Sheets had underwhelming seasons themselves with .699 and .659 OPS, respectively, combing for just 29 home runs. The Sox front office has made a myriad of trades in recent years as part of their rebuild, acquiring multiple notable prospects, but none of those players were able to get much going in 2024. Defensively, they were one of the worst groups in the league accruing -42 outs above average (OAA) only finishing ahead of the Oakland Athletics (-46) and often finding themselves on the wrong end of the highlight reel. Looking Ahead to 2025 Turning our eyes to the 2025 season, we’re likely looking at another very, very down year for the White Sox. They aren’t losing anyone of significance to free agency so, for better or worse, they will be running it back with largely the same roster from this season. That said, they do have 20 pre-arbitration and nine arbitration decisions to make that could result in some extra roster space and money to work with during the 2024-2025 offseason. Lastly, they could see Yoán Moncada return from injury, but he’s proven again and again that he cannot stay healthy and is somewhat of a black hole at the hot corner, making his $5M buyout a much more attractive option to his $25M salary. Due to the 29 players who theoretically could be non-tendered, Spotrac projects the White Sox current payroll to be about $90M less in 2025 than it was in 2024. In recent years, the White Sox payroll has been in the $150M range, ranking in the middle of baseball, with 2022 being an outlier where they had the 7th highest payroll at just over $203M. That said, a month ago Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the White Sox are looking to reduce their payroll for 2025 citing “substantial losses in revenue,” Thus, the White Sox won’t be “working heavy in free agency" – a direct quote from GM Chris Getz – and likely will continue seeking suitors for Crochet who is projected for a $2M raise via arbitration. If there will be one saving grace it’s that they have five prospects in MLB’s Top 100 and each of them are expected to contribute at some point next year. As of August 15th, 2024, MLB.com ranks their farm system as the 11th best in all of baseball with 15 of their top 30 prospects on or very close to reaching the Big League club. This group is headlined by left-handers, Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith, who project as frontline starters and shortstop Colson Montgomery who projects to have an All-Star worthy bat. In summary, 2025 is shaping up as another abysmal year for the White Sox, who are looking at a multi-year rebuild, but their prospects are on their way and could provide their fans some relief from a depressing state of affairs. View full article

As the postseason was set to get underway, MLB.com released a graphic and article showing how the playoff teams were built breaking down the players into one of three groups: free agent, trade/waiver, or homegrown. Let's see how our Minnesota Twins compare. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images The graphic below from MLB.com makes for an interesting exercise, as it didn't focus on payroll but rather the production each player provided (bWAR) and how each team acquired that player. We see that free agency played a relatively large role in constructing the NL playoff teams, whereas AL teams are generally more likely to be internally developed. That said, based on the size of each section within each teams bar chart you can pretty easily decipher the big market teams with seemingly an endless amount of payroll (Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies) versus the smaller market clubs that rely more heavily on homegrown talent (Brewers, Tigers, Royals). Like it or not, the Twins fit the latter group which places an added emphasis on their ability to identify and develop talented players via the draft or international free agency. So, how were the 2024 Minnesota Twins built? As noted above, the data collected is a player bWAR based on projected postseason rosters. I included the following players for the Twins calculations: Position Players (13): Christian Vázquez, Ryan Jeffers, Carlos Santana, Jose Miranda, Brooks Lee, Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Manuel Margot, Kyle Farmer, and Austin Martin Pitchers (13): Pablo López, Bailey Ober, David Festa, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands, Caleb Thielbar, Justin Topa, Louie Varland, Ronny Henriquez, Michael Tonkin, Jorge Alcalá, and Zebby Matthews Grouping the players was mostly straightforward, but I did divide Durán, Alcalá, and Martin’s bWARs evenly between trade/waiver and homegrown since each spent multiple years in the Twins Minor League system. You could argue that Simeon Woods Richardson should have made the roster but he was pretty bad down the stretch and just seemed out of gas so I opted for an actual reliever. Additionally, while Larnach, Miranda, and Wallner didn't play in the last series of the year and were each placed on the 10-day IL, I still wanted to include them in this exercise to have a more realistic picture of how the 2024 Minnesota Twins were built. Unsurprisingly, the largest section of the Twins bar chart comes from homegrown talent and, more specifically, the draft. Due to Max Kepler’s injury, none of the 63.64% homegrown bWAR came via International Free Agency. The next biggest section is the Free Agent group (26.52%) of Correa, Santana, Castro, Vázquez, and Thielbar followed by the “Trade/Waiver” group (9.85%). The Twins have always been an organization who has relied on a strong farm system to keep them competitive and relevant. One way or another, the players in the farm system help contribute to the major-league roster through their actual production once they reach the Bigs, or through their perceived value on the trade market if a team looks to bolster their MLB roster. And sometimes they do both, as is the case with former Twins utility Luis Arraez. The Twins signed Arraez via International Free Agency, helped him develop into the first Twins batting champion since Joe Mauer, and then flipped him for Pablo López. While López isn’t a homegrown talent by definition, it was the Twins ability to identify and develop homegrown talent that eventually brought him to the Twins. This breakdown just further demonstrates the importance of being able to identify and develop talent to create a sustainable product at the big league level. Yes, making splashy trades and signing big name free agents is fun and is a route to success for some, we have to be realistic and remember that's not how the Twins have nor will find success. View full article

The Twins announced a broadcast deal for a direct to consumer streaming via MLB. Here's what we (think) we know and what you can likely expect from the broadcast in 2025. View full video

A total of 31 pitchers took the bump for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. Let's take a look at which pitches graded out the worst using FanGraphs Pitching+ metric. Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-Imagn Images If you need to review with Pitching+ is, I’d direct you to my previous piece, where I wrote about the best-graded pitches from the 2024 season. I’ll use the same parameters for this article: In order for a Twins pitcher’s offering to make the list, they needed to throw at least 20 innings for the club, end the season in the organization, and have thrown the pitch itself at least 250 times for relievers or 400 times for starters. Now that the constraints have been set, let's look at the worst pitches for Twins hurlers from the 2024 season. #5: Bailey Ober's Fastball Bailey Ober threw his fastball a total of 1,028 times, with a Pitching+ grade of 96 in 2024; that is a bit lower than his 2023 mark of 99. The effectiveness also saw a steep decline, as the pitch went from a very good Statcast-estimate Run Value of 6 in 2023 down to 1 in 2024. Opposing hitters teed off on the pitch, with a 47.2% hard-hit rate, a .506 slugging percentage, and 12 home runs. While the results weren’t pretty in 2023, they weren’t quite that bad. Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher, who lives dangerously by preferring to throw his sub-92 mile-per-hour fastball up in the zone. While elite extension and above-average induced vertical break are positive characteristics, the preferred location and pitch profile leave very little room for error if you miss your spot. In short, the “stuff” metrics of the pitch aren’t good enough to leave the pitch in the middle of the zone. Study the heat map above, and you'll not that Ober's misses tended to be in that direction, toward the heart of the zone, rather than up above it. #4 and #3: Jhoan Duran’s Fastball and Splitter (Splinker?) These next two pitches have me sweatin’ a bit, especially considering Duran’s rollercoaster ride of a second half and the money he’ll be due in arbitration. Duran’s fastball and splitter both grade out as a 95 Pitching+ and, especially for his fastball, the results seem to back up the grade. In 2023, both pitches earned above-average grades and got great results, so what happened to them in 2024? The fastball dropped a tick in velo and appears to be more “flat” than in 2023, albeit with more arm-side run. Opposing hitters handled the pitch with a .296 batting average and .408 slugging percentage, yet the spin, contact rate and batted-ball data remained similar or even improved slightly in 2024. The splitter/sinker also saw a slight velocity drop, but its spin data and movement profile almost mirrored the 2023 version of the pitch. Results-wise, this pitch got the job done in 2024, with hitters managing only a .237 average and a .362 SLG, but the contact data regressed, resulting in a run value drop of 7 runs. While a deeper dive would be needed to try and get to the bottom of this conundrum, the answer may be as simple as: opposing hitters just know how to beat Jhoan Duran. #2: Joe Ryan's Splitter Joe Ryan was having a very successful season prior to his injury, and that was in part due to opposing hitters' struggles against his splitter. That said, a Pitching+ grade of 94 suggests that may not be sustainable over a longer stretch. Or maybe it could? One way to counter a weak pitch is through pitch sequencing and having a repeatable motion. Excelling in those aspects leads to a concept called “tunneling”. Tunneling is what happens when, regardless of the type of pitch, your delivery, motion, release point, and initial ball flight remain the same, not tipping the hitter off to the type of pitch by throwing the ball down a “tunnel”. The longer the ball takes the same path toward the batter before spin and gravity take over, the less likely they’ll be able to identify and do damage against the pitch. Where Ryan’s splitter doesn’t grade out well, it’s the pitch mix and sequencing that allow it to be successful. #1: Simeon Wood Richardson’s Fastball The rookie righty’s fastball is yet another example of a Pitching+ grade that doesn’t match its results. With a grade of 88, you might expect the pitch to be largely ineffective, but instead, it’s his top offering from a quantity and quality perspective. He threw the pitch 924 times in 2024, resulting in a Run Value of 9 thanks to above-average extension and induced vertical break. When thrown high in the zone, these create a very difficult pitch to hit, as you can see in the diagram below showing the hitters' whiff rate by zone. The issue with Woods Richardson’s fastball is that when he does miss his spot, it becomes a very hittable pitch, which led to opposing hitters batting .258 with a 41.8% hard-hit rate. If there is one thing to take away from both of these articles, it’s to understand that being a successful pitcher is about more than “velo” and “stuff”. It’s a blend of those things, combined with locating, sequencing, and a myriad of other factors, like repeatable delivery and understanding the hitter's weaknesses. As we’ve learned, pitches that don’t grade out well can still be effective, and pitches that do grade out well can still get knocked around. Pitching and pitch-calling is a beautiful art. View full article