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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I don't know of one scout or scouting service that projects Lewis better offensively than Kirilloff. It's the other way around...and by a fairly significant margin. So, far...things can change.
  2. jkcarew
    I'd part with Lewis in a deal for Syndergaard. Absolutely. Kirilloff is the one I'd have second thoughts with. I think two-three years from now, we'll want/need another thumper given Cruz's age, Cron's contract, etc, uncertainty regarding Sano/Rosario extensions. If more scouts/analysts seemed convinced regarding Lewis offensively, I'd feel differently.
  3. jkcarew
    As has been pointed out numerous times by numerous posters in these threads...something has to be done with the rotation between now and next March...regardless of whether the FO thinks something needs to be done this week. 60% of the rotation are going to be free agents...and there are zero obvious options (for 2020) in the minors IMO, you might as well try to get a controllable (even if just for 2020) starter now, before the deadline, and kill two birds. Even if the guy isn't 'guaranteed' to move the needle in the post-season, you still need to worry about getting there this year and again next year.
  4. jkcarew
    The annual ‘Twins won’t be intimidated against the Yankees’ narrative is so cute. The Twins will best the Yankees when they have a better team than the Yankees. There is no jinx or intimidation factor to agonize over when one team is simply better than the other. The fact that the gap is smaller than it’s been in recent memory is really no consolation.
  5. jkcarew
    We might have to recover multiple on-side kicks....but YES, I’m with you!
  6. jkcarew
    7 K’s in about 50 batters faced
  7. jkcarew
    I’m not buying. They are every day players that (for the large majority of the season) have batted 1-2 in the order. There is bound to be a correlation of some strength when those spots go hot/cold. But the strength of the offense is that the depth exists to survive, and survive quite nicely for periods, with other guys carrying them. I would do this concept on the top of the rotation...Berrios and at least one of Gibson and Odorrizi need to pitch well, and deep (even by today’s standards) into games...or the Twins will continue to slide to the edge of the playoff picture. Because, when it comes to the pitching staff as a whole, we have the opposite of depth.
  8. jkcarew
    Gonsalves isn’t an option, and won’t be on option all year, apparently. Injured, then shut down two months ago. I do find it interesting that they don’t seem to be terribly motivated to give Romero another try.
  9. jkcarew
    According to baseball reference, Torres hasn’t had a salary since 2017. I guess the union’s been losing more ground than I realized. No indication yet on whether this was a factor in the Twins deciding to sign him.
  10. jkcarew
    I do think Davis is probably a perfect example of how results in the 2019 International League need to be evaluated 'carefully'. His results in AA this year were good, after the promotion to Rochester, his results have been ridiculous. But if you look closer at his AAA results, you see that his K-rate ticked up (only slightly), and his BB-rate took a hit....not unexpected after a promotion. But with Rochester, every time he puts the ball in play it seems to be bounding off the fences or flying over them...the HR rate at Rochester is more than double what it was at Pensacola.
  11. jkcarew
    I think this is probably a true statement. And I don't think there are really 'blockbuster' opportunities out there (Greinke maybe?) And, I also don't like rentals. But seems to me that this team has earned an exception to that rule/approach. I think reinforcements will be coming. If not, this is quite the race between the Twins and the Indians, no? One watching the ship sink, and the other contemplating selling in the face of an epic second-half run.
  12. jkcarew
    Actually, OBP-wise, Buxton doesn't help. Both Cave and Gonzalez have better OBP's. Offensively, Buxton is 'more-of-the-same'...doubles and HR and low OBP. Twins team OPS+ is 119, Buxton's is 107. Team's OBP is .339, Buxton's is .308. But, we agree, he makes the bottom of the order better overall...and was showing signs of taking further steps.
  13. jkcarew
    This. Record while in/out of the lineup is next to meaningless in itself. He's OPS+'ing 107 (we'll take it!) in the 9 hole. We're much better defensively in the outfield with him. The outfield defense hasn't been a primary contributing factor is losses.
  14. jkcarew
    A 5 for 5 should always get a mention, even when a teammate hits 3 HR’s. Jaylin Davis went 5 for 5 with 3 doubles. Apparently, his launcher wasn’t launching. Johanna Duran’s turn in the rotation came up...so you knew Fort Myers wasn’t going to manage to score a run.
  15. jkcarew
    But, I don't think strait math does it justice, does it? If you never know when you'll have the next chance...if that next chance is never guaranteed...it can still make sense to goose the current odds even marginally, because you're goosing 'high' odds. In this argument, I don't care about theoretical future chances of a pennant going from 10% to 18% as much as I care about this years odds going from 33 to 38. It's a game, so it comes down to philosophy. But, to the extent that some will look at it as strait math...the math would need to assume not only how much an acquired player(s) increase odds in a vacuum...but also how much the odds decrease if no moves are made (as other contenders will certainly not remain static...that will be the case this year, and in every other year the Twins might be in a position to compete). I don't argue the math, but think there is a point where it is 'worth' it, despite the math. (Not to mention that some prospect trades solve future roster log-jambs.)
  16. jkcarew
    Wow. Rare! But I don't think as rare as the 2nd player of the game hitting into it. I'm combing through the 719, and haven't found even one of those, yet. Still looking, though.
  17. jkcarew
    To me it seems reasonable to question whether he'd be a needle-mover in this post season. On the other hand, would I like Boyd as a piece in the rotation for the remaining 4 years (2020-2023) of his contract. YES. He'll help you get to the post-season. And you'd get 4 years of that. And that's why Detroit is asking for a high price...they'll either get it, or they won't trade him. If someone get's him at the deadline for an 'inflated' price, and then...for example...he does little/nothing to help in this post season, the acquiring team still has 4 years of a pretty good left-handed starter (age 28-32)...not a bad consolation prize.
  18. jkcarew
    Adding Vazquez, or even Vazquez and Kennedy doesn't make the Twins WS favorites. For that to be even remotely true, you'd have to assume the Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees do nothing at the deadline to goose their odds further. But, even in that unlikely scenario, it's doubtful the Twins odds would surpass the Astros, and still wouldn't approach the Dodgers. I'm not saying that means you shouldn't do anything...or that aggressiveness isn't warranted. As I mentioned, you probably need to be fairly aggressive just to maintain 'good/decent' odds.
  19. jkcarew
    OK...MLB ranks (for players with more than a handful of PA's)... Most HR's per PA: 1. Garver 2. Hunter Renfroe 3. Christian Yelich Most HR per AB (removes 'penalty' for taking walks) 1. Garver 2. Christian Yelich 3. Mike Trout Most HR per contact (batted balls; these are the top "if they hit it, it's going to be a HR" guys) 1. Joey Gallo 2. Garver 3. Sano
  20. jkcarew
    Now’s the time, if the right player is available. If/when he shows he’s going to hit, you won’t want to trade him...and, if the bat continues to lag, his value starts dropping and you don’t get the return you’d want for a #1 overall draft pick. The upside remains high, but for me, the ‘off-limits’ guys don’t come around that often...they’re the ones you pretty much know are going to be stud hitters or, in the case of middle infield types, you know are going to be stud defensive shortstops. Lewis doesn’t seem to fit that. Controllable pitching.
  21. jkcarew
    Keoni Cavaco is .186 /.239 /.256...his OPS is .495 It's an extremely small sample. But, some reports at draft time had him as extremely raw. And he doesn't seem to be exactly ahead of the competition so far in the GCL.
  22. jkcarew
    Berrios is a folk hero if the FO does nothing (or next to nothing) in the next two weeks. But, it's not like you can trade Morin. And if this proves to be a step in clearing space for material upgrades, the Tweet ends up looking pretty childish on Berrios's part. Having said that...I think Berrios just has that fire that you want...and he's due for a shut-down performance...maybe over-due. Tonight could be interesting.
  23. jkcarew
    Thanks for posting, Ash. My take...the advanced defensive metrics remained flawed, fatally so, in some cases. They just have a long, long, way to go. Still, probably nothing that more data (way more data) won't be able to solve down the road.
  24. jkcarew
    In his small-sample (127 PA) AAA season so far, Jaylin Davis has a higher HR-rate (much higher) than Brent Rooker...and a lower K-rate. Meanwhile, we can assume he's a much superior defensive outfielder than Rooker (numbers back this up; Rochester has already played Davis 5 games in CF, etc.). Davis is 4 months older than Rooker. Of course, even if the sample was larger, this doesn't mean much. By all accounts, and despite his swing-and-miss challenges, Rooker was/is the much more polished power-hitting prospect. But still....maybe we should gtk Jaylin Davis all over again?... http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins-minor-leagues/get-to-know-kernels-outfielder-jaylin-davis-r5199
  25. jkcarew
    The biggest culprit in terms of offensive value seems to be that Gordon has not demonstrated any power this year. Three HR in 268 PA...in the 2019 International league, yet. He was showing signs of that tool emerging back in 2017, but no. Same problem Lamonte Wade has...at least Gordon is a middle infielder. Then again Gordon has a higher SLG than the .401 Luis Arraez showed in his 237 minor-league PA this year So, you never know.
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