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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    This list isn't exactly going to keep me up the night before the draft. Even "the givens" seem to be no-brainers only because the Twins figure to have so many spots available. Don't need to go very far down the list...especially of position-players...to get to those that have near-zero chance of being drafted and kept. But with the trend for rosters to carry/use more and more pitchers, picking the correct arms to protect is going to be key on a yearly basis.
  2. jkcarew
    Interesting. Thanks as always for sharing, Mike. I think cause and effect is confused in the last part of Law's statement. Aaron Boone seemed to do OK, winning 100 games...nine more than the previous year...and ending up with (probably) the 2nd-best team in baseball. The thing is, the 2018 New York Yankees of the world have seldom gambled with first-year managers. I think it's a significantly smaller gamble, with significantly more upside, when the 2019 Minnesota Twins make the call to go that route. We'll see.
  3. jkcarew
    Hope he's good. I would think we can expect some growing pains as would be expected with anyone new to the role. I'll be pulling for him, for sure. Like that they went outside the organization.
  4. jkcarew
    Nope...not at all. I did not know the story, so this is different. Thanks, Brock.
  5. jkcarew
    An extremely highly rated prospect at one time, who did, essentially, nothing in his playing career. If nothing else, he should have some good cautionary tales for Buxton and Sano.
  6. jkcarew
    The fact that the Twins staff had 57 starts...more than a third of the entire schedule...against Chi/KC/Det...and still only managed one pitcher that could post a GS of 85 or better, is faint praise for how 'good/improved' this staff really was. Also, in 2018, Berrios was flat bad against the good teams....big, ugly splits between teams over/under 500. But at least he capitalized on the big number of outings against pathetic offenses. He needs to get significantly better to be a legit number one for a good team. He seems to have the desire/determination (and youth) to make it happen.
  7. jkcarew
    If we had a team of well-established professionals that were ready to compete for a championship, I'd over-weigh in-game attributes (lineup construction, in-game bullpen/hitting/defensive moves). And a strong motivational approach. Sadly, I don't think we have that team. So, we probably need to lean more to communication, leadership, teaching. Not sure those guys are the most likely to win world championships, though.
  8. jkcarew
    Nice article. It's interesting to me that (IMO) it seems a sort of myth has grown regarding the '87 team...that being that it was Andy MacPhail's team. It wasn't. It was a team built by the Griffith organization. (Also fwiw, Calvin Griffith acted as his own general manager). Pucket, Viola, Hrbek, Gagne, Gaetti, Brunansky, Laudner, Lombardozzi, Bush, Larkin,...all acquired by the Griffith organization. And all (except Larkin) developed by the Griffith organization. To the extent we give credit to MacPhail for the Blyleven, Gladden, Reardon acquisitions (and Baylor/Smalley/Newman, if you like)...even some of that credit, then, goes to Calvin. It was Griffith who pilfered MacPhail from the Astros a year before he sold the club to Polad. The issues related to Calvin Griffith's ownership are well documented...particularly after the death of the reserve clause. But talent evaluation and player development had been an organizational strength of his...really, from the 1950's right up until his exit from the game in 1985.
  9. jkcarew
    I guess the thing that caught my eye here is that "corner OF/1B types" are not typically simultaneously referred to as "potential lead-off types" as @HangingSL refers to Raley. He must have some speed despite his size, to go along with the OBP potential. Maybe a chance to be a solid corner guy defensively despite the size/power profile, as well? I notice the Dodgers minor-league coaches had been throwing him in at CF (rarely, but still).
  10. jkcarew
    The Twins are coming off an stretch of years where they could realistically expect to get 4.5 - 6.5 WAR out of 2nd base. Obviously, we can hope that other spots in the lineup grow and compensate...but, on the other hand, the Jose Iglesias's of the world won't do much to fill those types of gaps. I say you go after the very best offensive middle-infielder you can get...and do with Polanco what you will based on who you get. (Spoiler: if we get Machado, Polanco goes to 2nd) Also not opposed to including Polanco in trade offers (depending on what happens with FA signings...and what we think about Gordon, Lewis, etc., etc.)...I think the league values Polanco.
  11. jkcarew
    Couldn't agree more. Berrios, I'm glad we have him and optimistic for further growth. But if we're needing/asking him to be a 1...he ain't that close yet. He was certifiably bad against good teams. 2018 was baby steps...but baby steps in the right direction.
  12. jkcarew
    List is about what I'd have. Except catcher. Shouldn't we have a catcher in that spot? Grzelakowski started 20 games at catcher. 20 games. Astudillo not really all that much better...counting DH, less than half his starts were at catcher. And it's not like there wasn't another choice... Rortvedt was an above league-average hitter as a 20-year-old at Ft. Myers while playing, by all reports, solid defense at.....catcher. (71 starts). Congratulations, Ted!
  13. jkcarew
    Here's hoping that, at least for this off-season, the FO acts as if they consider the competition to NOT be the Cleveland Indians. The notion that you can get into the post-season, then "anything can happen" is a false narrative. The underdog will win even one playoff round rarely...and even then only when there is serious upside talent in the batting order and a dominant arm or two. If anyone thinks that Cleveland should be the yard-stick for 2019/2020, I'd challenge whether you've seen the Yankees, Astros, or Red Sox play...at any point during the year....let alone this past week. The reality is that the Twins of the last couple of years (yes, even the 2017 version) are at or near the bottom of the other two AL divisions. There is a LONG way to go with this club. IMO, moves that represent starting over make more sense at this point than middling signings of tier-two free-agents...or trades that 'add major-league depth'. Either blow it up now, or make BIG moves to sign/acquire top talent/upside.
  14. jkcarew
    There is no solve for Buxton and Sano not performing in 2019. The Twins will give them every opportunity in 2019. And no difference-maker is signing in the off-season with the Twins to be a 'contingency' center-fielder or clean-up hitter...not any difference maker. It doesn't work like that. Can the Twins have better depth at 3B, DH, outfield...and hope that Rosario has his best year yet, and a couple of other guys make major steps? Yes. Would that scenario realistically take them to AL contention in 2019? No.
  15. jkcarew
    Took the time to look at this. Compiled manually from Baseball Reference.com...so I may have a mistake in here somewhere, but the theme was real for Berrios in 2018... Berrios against better-than-500 teams (finished better than 500) in 2018... 16 starts; 88.1 IP; team record 5-11; Berrios record 2-8 ERA: 5.71; WIP: 1.49 He's 24 years old. Definitely showing signs of having a better upside than this. But, the Twins need to be thinking about improving the staff...including improving it at the top end...if they want to contend in 2019.
  16. jkcarew
    Gibson had a better year than Berrios. He just did. Doesn't mean he's a better pitcher than Berrios...doesn't mean that all of the underlying numbers will lead to the same type of results over time...just means he had a better year than Berrios in 2018. Also, as a reminder...in 2018 all Twins pitchers benefited from nearly 60 starts...more than a third of the schedule...against White Sox, KC, and Detroit. Truly awful teams/lineups. And those lineups can only be getting better over the next few years. For those that think Berrios's numbers stand up as 'no. 1' numbers...look at his splits for results against under/over 500 teams this year. Downright ugly numbers against the top half of the league.
  17. jkcarew
    Usually. But this year would have been the exception to even that axiom. The Twins last 9 series included 20 games against the likes of Texas, KC, Detroit, and the White Sox. Don't think it would have mattered much if those teams had 'been trying' or 'playing it straight'....which they clearly were not. If ever there was a year when September records and statistics can be ignored completely...this would be it regarding the Twins. The Twins need to overhaul in a fairly major way. The manager should be just the first step.
  18. jkcarew
    I don't think you need to be termed a "homer" to appreciate Paul Molitor for his accomplishments, or even for his demeanor through the years as a primary face of the franchise. I both admire Molly....and feel that, at this time, there should be better manager options available for this team.
  19. jkcarew
    Please go outside the organization. Having said that, watching LA, Colorado, Cubs and Milwaukee play yesterday....it drove home how really far away the Twins roster is from looking like that of a true contender. Lots and lots of work to be done beyond getting a new/better manager.
  20. jkcarew
    In 2018, the pitchers have benefited from having three historically awful teams in the division. Nearly 60 starts against lineups that were barely better than AAA. Those lineups will be getting better. The staff lacks a true #1. While Berrios may take that step in 2019, he didn’t in 2018...and I wouldn’t mind at all the FO going aggressively for whatever #1 types (or #1-ish) might be available in the off-season.
  21. jkcarew
    His career OPS is 672...and that represents a very clear boundary on his greatness. If we attribute the difference of 22 DRS to Buxton alone...that amounts to 2 wins. If Buxton is going to be OPS+'ing 80 (or less), it won't take much for an average defensive player to make up the 2 wins in the batters box. The defensive stats are cool...they just don't have the value that is often insinuated as part of Buxton conversations. Even center fielders have to hit some to have value. Having said that, if Buxton could OPS+ a consistent 90, he'd have a lot of value. Think somewhere between Gary Pettis and Paul Blair. And I still think it's realistic that he can do that.
  22. jkcarew
    Probably yes...in almost every league I can think of, with the obvious exception of the American and National...and the possible exceptions of the International and Pacific Coast.
  23. jkcarew
    Looking at the BB's it might seem like Stewart and Gonsalves have the same issues. But I'm not sure they do. When I look at Steward, I see a guy who has stuff, but can't get it over the plate despite trying (and doesn't get totally annihilated when he does throw it over the plate) When I watch Gonsalves, I see a guy without much stuff, who tries hard not to throw it over the plate. Maybe, it's just me, but I remain more optimistic on Stewart. (Which probably means Gonsalves has a long and successful major-league career ahead of him.)
  24. jkcarew
    I like many/most of the trades so far. But overall, the new FO seems to be learning on the job. And learning slowly. They certainly don't seem to have accomplished anything yet. Like some others that have posted, I could not care less about the new 'processes' they have put in place...the processes will constantly evolve, what's brilliant today is obsolete tomorrow. Win baseball games at the major league level. And they've gone gone backwards in that regard. It will be an interesting off-season. I guess they have to wait another year on Buxton and Sano. But if Buxton/Sano turn out to be closer to what we've seen in 2018 than what we've seen in brief periods of success...then, we'll end up wishing the FO had pulled the plug and went full re-build mode. This team is frighteningly close to looking at 2020 and still having zero established players that you would build around. On truly good teams, guys like Rosario and Berrios are just nice pieces.
  25. jkcarew
    Last night's lineup would probably finish top-half of the International League. Maybe. You just look for interesting players with a chance of being pieces in the future. The other day, we had Stewart...this game?...I don't think Astudillo DH'ing is in the Twins plans...but, Garver continues to look like a major-league hitter and wasn't terrible behind the plate. Twins fandom!
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