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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Thanks for posting, Spy. The radio broadcast today had hinted at some injuries, but I hadn't got the details. Between the injuries and the performance, it's almost as if the baseball gods are punishing us for all the major-league glee. Ouch.
  2. jkcarew
    This seems very plausible. And my first reaction to Seth's comments above that he thinks Lewis still may be promoted to AA after the FSL all-star game...was how can they promote him as he's struggling so significantly at the A+ level? But, to your point, if he's still strong mentally/emotionally...it might be good for the overall development that he 'fails as hard/fast as possible', and begins making the necessary adjustments.
  3. jkcarew
    Refreshing to see how Littell finished the game. Good for him. Berrios is having a strange year, IMO. Giving up hits at a materially higher rate than last year...and striking out fewer hitter. But the extra hits must be mostly singles as the HR rate hasn't increased. And he's making up for the extra hits with a significantly lower BB rate. My take is, that he often hasn't had great control of his curve ball, and is determined to challenge hitters in the strike zone with fastballs rather than give up walks. He might be a small adjustment from being better than we've ever seen him. He strikes me as a bit of a throw-back...where he doesn't care what his numbers are or what he looks like, as long as his team gets the W. I like that.
  4. jkcarew
    I agree, his ability to get on base via the walk is a bit uncanny...especially when you consider he is slugging 299. Usually pitchers will do everything but lob the ball underhanded to avoid walking guys that slug 299. That’s slugging 40 points lower in the International League (a league with the juiced ball) than Ehire Adrianza is slugging in the majors this year.
  5. jkcarew
    At what point is it acceptable to acknowledge Lewis is having a disappointing season? He started slow. And now has hit .175 in his most recent 10 games, while striking out 13 times and walking twice. Has now played in about the same number of games at Fort Myers in 2019 as he did in 2018, and has regressed offensively across the board. Haven’t heard or read much on how the defense at short is coming along.
  6. jkcarew
    “(Graterol’s) been absurdly dominant in Double-A.” It’s a narrative that is getting kinda out of hand. Is he doing really well...great for a 20 year old? Yes. Meanwhile, Smeltzer, Poppen, Alcala all have better FIP and K/9 at Pensacola as starters. And then there’s Stashak. Graterol’s ERA benefiting from unsustainably low BABiP. So, if we’re going to continue with the Graterol is dominant in AA narrative we at least need to acknowledge the other ‘dominant’ performers there.
  7. jkcarew
    There really is no bite to this question without context of what you're getting in return. For the right return, I'd trade anybody. Generically, the best I can go with is that middle infield and corner outfield seem to be the areas of depth in the system. It would help if Gordon can sustain his health, Javier could get healthy, and Lewis could dig out of whatever it is that's happening with him at Fort Myers this year.
  8. jkcarew
    “On the league-leading average, he’s got just a .372 BABIP which also suggests that nothing is out of whack in that vein.” Maybe not completely out of whack, but 372 is a good margin higher than anything he’s been able to sustain before. Still, if teams continue to shift him, I think maybe he could sustain that.
  9. jkcarew
    Let's not confuse cause and affect too much here. Baldelli's basically never managed a team that's spent a day outside of first place. He's never managed in a race, never even managed a game in June. He has a team that's wildly over-achieving and playing .667 baseball. It's been beyond easy to spread playing time, and portray a 'soft'/patient vibe. Fast forward to a hypothetical 2020 scenario. It's mid-July, and the Twins with high expectations, have been under-performing for weeks, and were just beat 3 games to 1 in a series against the upstart White Sox to fall into a tie for first place in the central. Tougher to stick with the ideal rotations at that point. And what demeanor will everyone (including leaders in the clubhouse) be looking for from Baldelli in that scenario? Every good manager has to have the 'coddling' card AND the 'field general' card in their toolbox. There were plenty of 'field managers'...the ones that did it right...that had the respect of their players. That will still be possible, I think. Every reason to be optimistic regarding Baldelli, but too early to pigeon-hole him into a category, IMO.
  10. jkcarew
    Probably worth describing the 'weakness' in context of regular season vs playoffs. For instance, it looks like the starting rotation will probably be a strength overall in the quest to win enough games to take the central division. Yet in the playoffs, where the top 3 start all games (practically), it would be very easy to argue that Berrios would likely be the worse number one among AL participants.
  11. jkcarew
    One of the things that has made the season so fun so far, is also one of the fundamental 'weaknesses' (of sorts). The schedule. The Twins have played 16 games...tied for least in MLB...against teams with winning records. Not the Twins fault, and they're 8-8 so far. But with the way the league is now, you really don't know where you stand at any point in the season until you can play a series or two against one of the few teams that is both trying to compete, and decent at trying. IMO, we'll need to continue to look at the intermittent series against the Yankees, Boston (they'll be there), Tampa, Milwaukee, Atlanta, Cleveland (I guess)...to determine where the Twins are on their path to making noise in the post-season.
  12. jkcarew
    And are we sure Taylor Grzelakowski (#23) is really only 25 years old?
  13. jkcarew
    Get it. He's putting the ball in the air a bit more...and he's making contact toward the barrel more consistently. So, ON AVERAGE, the ball is traveling further. Seems real and material. But the point I was trying to make was...that often when you simplify/shorten the swing (eliminate leg kicks, other triggers etc.) you diminish the ability to hit the ball over the fence...for a period of time, as you adjust. This seems to have been the case with Buxton, particularly for the first several weeks of the season. But he's showing signs of figuring out that part of it, as well.
  14. jkcarew
    I'll play the contrarian on Graterol. He isn't dominating like the ERA might indicate. His FIP is actually 3.12, and his BB/9 and K/9 are no better than league average. In fact his K/9 is a fraction below league average which...when you have a 100 mph fastball...is usually a pretty good indication your secondary pitches are not being particularly effective. His BABiP against is extremely low right now...100 points lower than it was last year at Fort Myers. So, I'd say...he continues to progress nicely as a 20-year old starter in AA ball. But, I doubt he's ready to help at the major league level quite yet, and I want him to start as many games as possible as he continues to develop the other pitches. I do hope he gets to AAA soon.
  15. jkcarew
    The swing seems shorter and simpler. Not sure it's generating "further" hits yet...the HR rate is actually slightly below where it was from 2015-2017. But that can change as Buxton learns how to generate the power with the lower half. Garver (very short right-handed swing) seems to have figured that out. Buxton can as well. He also simply seems to be recognizing pitches better, and guessing less. But again, that's easier when the swing is shorter and you don't have to commit as early. The BABiP is higher than it's been in his career, but not ridiculously so at 343.
  16. jkcarew
    Despite the early similarity in some obscure statistics, the 2019 Twins are almost the complete opposite of the 2015 Royals. Maybe similar in that both clubs play good defense, but that’s it. If the Twins were to pull that off...(and it seems less and less obsurd to consider)...it would be by overwhelming teams offensively. Not by winning low-scoring games with a dominant bullpen.
  17. jkcarew
    Kepler’s OBP of 305 is irrelevant for the conversation. Seems many are not grasping that Kepler is only the lead off hitter when facing right-handed starters. His OBP against righties is 331...not great, but better than Buxton’s 316. Meanwhile, Buxton has owned an OPS north of 800 for about one week in his entire career now...that being this past week. Maybe we move him up against lefties to see how that goes?
  18. jkcarew
    Ah....then, never mind Promoted from his 'rehab' in extended spring training, then? Yes, I concur...we're all waiting (and waiting) for that.
  19. jkcarew
    Must have read it too fast and thought we were talking about beer. Hey, the mind does what it will. (especially at my advanced...experience.)
  20. jkcarew
    Cabezas is my favorite prospect. The prospect of Cervezas with the Twins is glorious, especially on a day like today.
  21. jkcarew
    I wouldn't say I'm waiting for Lewis to be promoted. I thought I might be, but I'm not. Instead, I'm waiting for Lewis to show some progression offensively. We're approaching the 200 PA he had last year at this level, and he's under-performing his (decent, not great) results from last year...including striking out more and massively struggling in the SLG area. It would be great to get a report on his defense, because that would have a material impact on how we view his overall progress. But, offensively, he does not appear to be anywhere near ready for a promotion.
  22. jkcarew
    Gordon hurt again? And is it time to update Javier from “early May return”?
  23. jkcarew
    Don't love him there...but given alternatives, I'm good with it. When looking at it, we'd probably be better off considering Kepler's numbers against righties only. He's not batting lead-off against lefties. And his OBP against righties...while not outstanding...is decent, and better than Buxton's. Against lefties, I'm good with Garver leading off at this time. My feeling is that lead-off batters have more pressure and see different pitching approaches (certainly relative to no. 9 hitters). Even if Buxton continues to make progress, I want him with a solid season behind him before we ask him to take that on...as long as the alternatives are 'decent'...which I feel the Kepler/Garver platoon is (so far).
  24. jkcarew
    But we just lost by a run. My thing is...why does having the ability to pull and launch and hit home runs have to preclude the ability to move a runner when the scenario calls for that? You'd like to see that type of versatility...at least among guys that aren't going to be anywhere near league-leaders in power numbers. (by the way...not necessarily a Kepler thing, really. Kepler was trying to move the runner...he's always trying to pull the ball which was the play there. Just got beat by the pitch.)
  25. jkcarew
    It would make sense to me that we will see shifts beaten more often going forward as the shift pendulum swings too far. Where the 'marginal' power guys become willing to look to beat the shift. Just eyeball/gut, I thought it was absurd that the Tigers were shifting Polanco. And, sure enough, he burned them multiple times. Maybe I'm just hoping. The pull/launch thing is great, but I like the idea of diverse styles and approaches surviving the data-driven evolution.
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