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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    With the changes in the CBA there is a lot less incentive for the Twins to try to get a player to agree to a lowball offer with the 1st pick (since the money saved will be much smaller than was possible in the past). With that in mind, I can't see a reason not to go with the player who has the highest upside, which the general consensus seems to say is Hunter Greene.
  2. twins_89
    I really hope he is still recovering since he's looked totally cooked this season. It would be nice to get something out of him over the next 2.5 years for all the money they are committed to paying him.
  3. twins_89
    I'd really like to believe that Hughes has some physical issue that is the reason for his poor performance, but I'd say it's more likely that what we see is just the real Phil Hughes at this point. If Hughes can't find a way to get his fastball over 90 anymore he is pretty much done.
  4. twins_89
    Hughes secondary stuff just isn't good enough to make up for a sub 90 fastball. I'm not sure what to do with him at this point. I'm not convinced he would have much more success in the bullpen, so maybe it's time for a mystery injury to send him to the DL.
  5. twins_89
    Starting the day in first is great, but it's looking like the Twins will be in 3rd or 4th place in the Central at the end of the day. With the Twins getting pounded and the Indians and Tigers playing bad teams (the Royals and As) the Twins could easily fall to 3rd in the division (or 4th if Indians, Tigers, and White Sox all win).
  6. twins_89
    Since the concussion Mauer has not been good, but due to lack of better options he kept his everyday spot. The question that really needs to be considered is whether he is currently a better option than Vargas/Grossman for 1B/DH at bats? I'm starting to seriously question whether Mauer gives the team the best chance to win games. I'm sure Molitor will give Joe more time to get on track, but at some point if the numbers don't turn around the question of Mauer's playing time will have to be faced.
  7. twins_89
    In Hughes first start I was both encouraged by the results and a bit worried about the number of hard hit balls. Hughes with a 89-91 fastball isn't the same pitcher he was when he was throwing 92-94. He made it through his first start in good shape largely due to some excellent outfield defense, but it's going to take a while before I'm convinced that he can be successful over the course of a season.
  8. twins_89
    Hughes getting hammered in the 1st with hard hit balls. Without a couple really good Buxton catches that would have been a really ugly inning. So far Hughes isn't inspiring confidence in his ability to be a major league starting pitcher.
  9. twins_89
    Winning 3 while getting next to nothing offensively from Mauer, Buxton, and Grossman is encouraging. I'll be even more excited if Hughes looks like he can still be a legitimate starting pitcher.
  10. twins_89
    I was optimistic when the Twins replaced Ryan, but in his short stint Falvey's moves make me question his competence. Park was the best option at DH and it wasn't remotely close, so sending him to Rochester so the Twins can keep guys like Boshers, Danny Santana, and O'Rourke on the 40 man significantly reduces my belief in the front office. Add in the failure to upgrade the bullpen in the off-season and things don't look too good for Falvey.
  11. twins_89
    I'd be more optimistic if the rotation didn't have so far to climb to get to even average. If the rotation improves last season's ERA by half a run they would still be 29th in baseball. It would take cutting a full run off their ERA from last season to even get to the middle of the pack.(a full run reduction would have made the Twins 17th in starter ERA last season). Since we didn't make any significant additions to the rotation it would take a lot things to break the Twins way to get to mediocre (bounce back seasons from the vets Hughes, Gibson, and Santiago along prospects being successful).
  12. twins_89
    The whole point of the rule 5 draft is that teams are unable or unwilling to put guys on the 40 man roster, so I am fairly certain that if Turner is returned he wouldn't take up a 40 man spot.
  13. twins_89
    This is a signing I'd be very happy with if he was the 4th or 5th best player acquired this off-season, unfortunately he's the 2nd best acquisition.
  14. twins_89
    The free agent and trade moves by the Twins this off-season have made at best a minimal improvement to a 103 loss team. Even if the development of the young players goes well and the starting pitchers are less awful than last year I'm not all that confident that it will result in enough wins to get the Twins out of last place in MLB. If the records of other poor teams are similar to last year it would take an improvement of 10 wins to be able to say the Twins aren't the worst team in baseball (9 additional wins last season would have tied the Twins for the worst record).
  15. twins_89
    The only significant off-season roster moves were replacing Suzuki with Castro and letting Plouffe walk. That seems like fairly minimal improvement at best, so I'm not quite sure how the team is expected to improve by 21 games over last season. If the young guys all take another step forward I could see the possibility of winning 70 games as a top end expectation.
  16. twins_89
    If De Leon was the only good prospect on the table I'm happy that the Twins passed. Taking 60 cents on the dollar in trade never made much sense to me. I'd rather see them roll the dice and see if Dozier can have an average or better first half of next season, if so I suspect the offers at the trade deadline have a reasonably good chance of being better than what is currently being offered.. I'm not going to fault the new Twins front office for not accepting a low-ball offer for their first big move.
  17. twins_89
    On Wolfson's podcast today he said he had heard that unless something major changes the Twins will keep Dozier. He commented that the Dodgers aren't even close to offering enough for Brian Dozier..
  18. twins_89
    It seems like it shouldn't be that hard to agree to the third piece in a deal. There has to be at least one realistic prospect that that the Twins rate a lot higher than the Dodgers.
  19. twins_89
    With the old guard there probably wouldn't be a trade. One of my biggest complaints with the previous front office was they seemed to always hold onto players well past the optimal trade window.
  20. twins_89
    Sheffield seems like a reasonable third piece to go after. He has enough issues (health, control, good chance of ending up in the bullpen) that he isn't a top end prospect, but he does have very good upside. If they can't get Sheffield then the next option would be to get a lottery ticket type player (Heredia or Abdullah for example) along with a 4th prospect (Mitch White?).
  21. twins_89
    At this point I don't think anyone knows what Profar is going to be, is he same player that was the #1 prospect in baseball or have the injuries and missed time diminished his abilities. It's this question that makes him a great target for the Twins. Next season Minnesota isn't likely to be in the playoff hunt so it's an ideal time to make some high-risk high-reward type moves. The only question is how much do the Rangers currently value Profar, if Ervin Santana can be the basis for a deal the Twins should make the move.
  22. twins_89
    I'd rather give Murphy or Garver a chance as the backup catcher. The Twins aren't going to be competing for the playoffs so it makes sense to give the internal options playing time to determine if they have a future with the big league club.
  23. twins_89
    So, are the Dodgers trying to acquire a prospect from another organization? I guess I could see them trying to dump Kazmir or McCarthy while throwing in enough money to get a suitable prospect.
  24. twins_89
    I'd like to see the Twins take a chance and go after Tyson Ross similar to what they did with Hughes a few years ago (a reasonably priced 3 year deal). I'm not sure there are any other free agent starters that would be worth signing. For the bullpen, Feliz has always seemed like the ideal target. He falls right in the range that the Twins should be looking at (he's a good but not elite reliever).
  25. twins_89
    The danger of prospects is that people will look at their own and convince themselves that their prospects are the ones that will beat the odds. That's why A level prospects prospects like Alvarez and Lux (or Gordon and Kirilloff for the Twins) are to often seen as assets that are too valuable to trade when in reality the chance they end up busts is many times higher than the chance they ever become even average major league players. Based on fangraphs models the odds of those four producing less than 1 WAR before hitting free agency are around 70% (Alvarez), 85% (Lux), 55% (Gordon), and 75% (Kirilloff). De Leon and Bellinger on the other hand are different in that they are close to ready and have much lower bust rates (around 15%). Personally I'd value De Leon and Bellinger on a completely different level than A ball prospects and can understand why the Dodgers would be unlikely to include both in a deal for Dozier. That's why De Leon and Alvarez as the basis of a Dozier deal makes sense. The Twins get one low risk pitcher who will likely have some major league success (though De Leon developing into a top of the rotation start is still less that a 50-50 proposition) along with one high upside lottery ticket type of player.
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