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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    I'm not saying that it doesn't make some sense, but it is just bizarre to me that the Dodgers might look to salary dump a player to the Twins.
  2. twins_89
    From MLBTradeRumors Chat today. Question: Whats it going to take to get Brian Dozier? Jason Martinez: Jose De Leon and another top prospect. Don't think the Dodgers would give up De Leon and Bellinger. And I'm not sure if the Twins would take any less than those 2. Could be the hold up.
  3. twins_89
    One more thought on Dozier's value. Looking at WAR, he was more productive over the last three years than any free agent available this off-season (Dozier had a better 3-year WAR than Cespedes, Bautista, Turner, Encarnacion, or Fowler). In addition, Dozier's 3-year production topped big name position players like Freeman, McCutcheon, Cano, Heyward, Carpenter, Longoria, Stanton, Pedroia, Lucroy and Tulowitzki. Just something to think about when trying to determine Dozier's trade value.
  4. twins_89
    Yeah, Profar has far less value than Buxton (but far more than Danny Santana).
  5. twins_89
    I wouldn't mind giving Profar a try at short, but I doubt a deal could be worked out. The problem is the Ranges want a return that values Profar as close to his past value as a prospect, while other teams look at Profar and see a guy with a significant injury history (and concerns about whether his shoulder allows him to play SS going forward) and no major league production. It's next to impossible to bridge that gap. I could see a deal at the trade deadline once it becomes more clear what Profar's real value looks like (based on production, staying healthy, and showing if he can play short).
  6. twins_89
    There are still three free agents who declined qualifying offers (Trumbo, Bautista, and Encarnacion) that could move the picks down if they sign with new teams. That would give the Twins #1, #38, and #40 as the worst case.
  7. twins_89
    For me there is no way I'd trade Dozier for less than a couple of top prospects. From the Dodgers those players would have to come from the Bellinger/De Leon/Alvarez/Verdugo since there is a drop off after the those four. I'd pass on any deal that didn't include two of those players (and based on surplus value arguments from earlier in the thread it's a very reasonable position). Over the last 3 seasons Dozier has the 15th best WAR for all position player in baseball. Combine that with an incredibly bargain contract and I find it hard to believe that one good prospect and a few lesser pieces is a fair return.
  8. twins_89
    I think the fangraphs analysis basically confirms that Alvarez is a huge upside prospect who is a long ways from the majors. One of the key things to me is the roughly 70% chance that he doesn't even reach 1 WAR of production. Trading for a guy that far away is the ultimate high-risk high-reward type of deal and the risk needs to be considered. To me De Leon and Alvarez is a fair return (with some lesser 3rd prospect). The difficulty in turning low A pitchers into major league starters has burned the Twins a few times in recent years. Based on fangraphs, Alex Meyer was at one point a better prospect than Alvarez is right now and we know how that turned out. Another example is Kohl Stewart who when drafted was the same level of prospect to Alvarez but has since dropped quite a bit as he moved through the system. The point is that while Alvarez might be considered a better prospect than De Leon or Bellinger his trade value is lower due to the extremely high bust rate for young pitching.
  9. twins_89
    Surplus value and how it relates to top 100 prospects has been analyzed based on historical stats. The updated edition can be found here: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/
  10. twins_89
    I have a fairly good idea of how these threads evolve. I'm not trying to criticize the thread or site, I'm just saying my main interest is in talking baseball and when a thread moves past that point it doesn't hold my interest. Luckily there are always new threads with good twins discussion.
  11. twins_89
    Aren't the Dodgers trying to dump Kazmir and McCarthy? If they are already looking to offload vet pitchers I doubt they are interested in Santana. While he would be a clear upgrade for the end of the Dodgers rotation I think they are looking to use their money on a 3rd baseman and a closer.
  12. twins_89
    I keep seeing updates to the thread and come back to check if there was any news. Unfortunately, it's been quite a few pages since there was any new information or baseball related discussion. The thread was great for the first day, but it's time to let it go.
  13. twins_89
    I always forget about Santana's option year. As you pointed out that should add additional value, especially since an option like that is valuable for an older player like Santana. The team gets positive value if Santana pitches well and they pick up the option and there is no negative value if Santana's production drops off.
  14. twins_89
    Santana's a pretty consistent 3 WAR player and it's reasonable to expect close to that for the next couple of seasons. So, that would give him around $20M in surplus value which roughly equals one prospect in the #50-100 range.
  15. twins_89
    I would have much preferred a high upside high risk type of player. Getting a guy who might contribute a little bit but has no upside makes little sense for a team that has to improve by 22 wins just to get to .500.
  16. twins_89
    Brasoban sounded like the best option until it came out he was having some arm issues, so now I am guessing it'll probably be Chirinos unless the Twins trade the pick. I'd really like to see the Twins go for the highest upside guy, who to me is Angel Perdomo. They aren't likely to compete next year so stashing him as a reliever shouldn't be an issue.
  17. twins_89
    I just don't see Calhoun as a trade piece that makes any sense for the Twins and if he was the 2nd piece in the deal I'd hope the Twins would pass. I see De Leon and Alvarez with a lesser piece or two as the most likely deal since the value is reasonable and it addresses the Twins needs.
  18. twins_89
    Based on the starting pitching available in free agency there are very few mid rotation starters this year. The top of the FA starting pitcher list is Ivan Nova, Rich Hill, and Jason Hammel and beyond that I don't know that I'd consider any of the other free agents capable of being an adequate mid rotation starter. Because of the lack of quality starting pitcher options I'm all for making Ervin Santana available to see If an overpay type of offer comes along.
  19. twins_89
    De Leon and Bellinger would be a great deal with fairly low risk since both are close to major league ready. De Leon and Alvarez might be better long term, but there is a huge amount of risk associated with a low A pitcher. I'd be relatively happy with either option so I'm hopeful that something gets done.
  20. twins_89
    The White Sox front office really hit a home run with Eaton. Three years ago they traded Hector Santiago (who we just acquired for Nolasco/Meyer) for Eaton and now they flip Eaton for Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Dane Dunning. Turning Santiago into 3 years of Eaton (he had 12.8 WAR with Chicago) and a massive prospect haul is unbelievably good management.
  21. twins_89
    I said $60-80M because for me $60M would be the low end for his production if you make the assumption that last year wasn't sustainable and he will regress to a more average level. The $80M is a high end estimate that is probably unrealistic, but captures what his value would be if he maintained last year's production over the remainder of his contract. I feel fairly comfortable saying the Twins should shoot for a minimum of $60M surplus value in return for Dozier and that getting $70M value wouldn't be unreasonable.
  22. twins_89
    According for Fangraphs (which is what I believe is typically used for surplus value) he had 4.7, 3.3, and 5.9 WAR the last three years which is an average of 4.63 WAR/year. Over two years that is worth $74.1M and after subtracting his salary it leaves $59.13M surplus value (which I called $60M for simplicity).
  23. twins_89
    If you look at the deal from the surplus value perspective Dozier is probably worth $60-80M over the next two seasons. If the return is De Leon and Alvarez I think a case can be made that they have a value in the $50-60M range, so those two with one additional real prospect (maybe one of the Dodgers #7-9 prospects) is a fairly realistic return for Dozier.
  24. twins_89
    I'm hoping for De Leon and Alvarez are the main return and would like someone like Buehler/Sheffield as the 3rd player (to help mitigate the risk involved in trading for a low A pitcher like Alvarez).
  25. twins_89
    Based on the surplus value concept Dozier would have a value of around $60M if he has average years for the next two seasons (based on his WAR performance the last 3 seasons). If Dozier was able to sustain something similar to last years performance his surplus value would increase to around $80M. So his trade value should be in the $60-80M range. The expected surplus value of prospects (http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/) gives an idea of what a fair return would involve. A fair return for Dozier would be a pitcher ranked in the top #11-25 and a pitcher ranked #26-50 (based on baseball america rankings). In terms of Dodgers prospects that would probably start with De Leon who was #25 in BAs mid season last year (and is currently #33 in MLB top 100). For a pitching prospect in the ballpark of #30 the surplus value is around $30M. A second pitching prospect would be Alvarez (who is currently ranked #91 by MLB). Basically pitchers between #50-100 have similar value of around $16M, but if the Twins are high on him they might value him in the $25-30M range (like a #26-50 pitching prospect). Combining De Leon and Alvarez could get the value close to the low end of Dozier's value, so I would guess 1-2 more prospects from the Buehler/Sheffield/Lux group would get the deal done. So my Dozier trade (which I think is fairly realistic) would be De Leon, Alvarez, and Buehler for Dozier.
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