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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    While I get and appreciate the gist of the article - Arraez is being banked on as too much of a sure thing in Twins Territory - it's missing more than just the launch angle and barrel stuff (though those are appreciated as well). Revere striking out more than Arraez given the decade of difference between their introductions is pretty significant. That doesn't mean Arraez strikes out just a bit less than Revere, that means adjusted for era, he strikes out quite a bit less. While it was mentioned somewhat, Revere not walking *at all* is symptomatic of a lot more than just OBP... it means he didn't recognize pitches, and not recognizing pitches or the strike zone directly leads to bad contact (or missing entirely). Arraez and Revere just aren't good comps, really. But the general idea that we shouldn't count on Arraez being a competent starter, that I can agree with. I think he'll probably do okay but I'm not banking on it.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    An economic downturn, which will lead to a stock market downturn.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this is wildly overrated. In-game, mixing pitchers could have a real impact but I just don't believe players get into "a groove" against same-handed pitchers over multiple days and from the data I've seen, that is backed up. In the modern game where the average batter will face three pitchers in a single game, I just don't see how switching up starters day-over-day really matters.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm no longer in the market but I'd also hold and wait it out. But the market is primed for a downturn, I just called it wrong by about 18 months. Is this what causes it? Dunno, hard to say.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Kepler is a farrrrrr better defender than Cave and should (and will) man center in place of Buxton, just as he did last season. Jake Cave can barely man a corner spot competently, much less center.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Provided the creators are smart enough to stick to the source material, you're in for several seasons of really good storytelling in Locke & Key.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh... https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/1232030949631811592
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    No one in this lineup should be entrenched anywhere. And Kepler is definitely not the third or fourth best hitter on the team. While I love Max, I'm not entrenching him in any spot of a lineup that contains Donaldson, Sano, Garver, and Cruz. Max is a tier below all of those guys, somewhere closer to Polanco but lacking some of the skills that make Jorge a good lead-off hitter. Max is a lefty, which makes you want to slot him in between those other mashers somewhere but he's not in their league; that's not a knock on Max, it's a testament to just how freakin' good the rest of this lineup looks. On an average team, Max is probably the second or third best hitter. On the Twins, he's probably like the fifth or sixth best hitter.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, the correlation between spring training results and regular season results is extremely weak and the data is considerable. Enjoy the games, revel in the fact that baseball has finally returned, but don't put stock into much of anything that happens before April.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Stop. Hitting. Walls. Byron. He could easily be a $200m player on the open market if he stops hurting himself. Last season showed just how devastating he can be when healthy and hitting.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Ryan unfairly gets credit and blame for those drafts depending who you talk to that day. Personally, I give him neither credit nor blame for much of anything under Smith's tenure, though he certainly influenced some decisions. But you're right that Polanco and Kepler get a ton of credit for the work they put into becoming MLB ballplayers. To swing this back around to the current front office, I don't know if I'd give them too much credit for either Polanco or Kepler, as both players were making real inroads to becoming legitimate MLB players before this front office came around. But I don't need to look any further than Mitch Garver to see how this front office has improved the team. There's no way in hell previous front offices would have put the coaching staff on the field and the methodology in place to turn a tweener like Garver into possibly the best overall catcher in Major League Baseball. In my opinion, the conclusive evidence everyone seems to be searching for in this thread begins and ends with Garver's improvement.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    One team won 59 games. The other won 78 games. Those aren't similar numbers.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not about an Odorizzi and Maeda performance comparison straight-up; money and contract length also play a role (money being the primary reason the Rays dealt Odorizzi in the first place).
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    This is truly a delightful thread to read through two years later. I was middling positive on Mejia. That, uh, didn't really work out. But holy gods, the hot takes...
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    If those things happen, they're better than the 91 team. That doesn't mean the 2020 Twins will win the World Series but the best team often doesn't win the World Series so there's that. This team has a single weakness, literally one: the lack of a #1 starter. Past that, they're average or above average at literally every single other roster spot out of 25. That's amazing. Again, that guarantees nothing but this season sure should be fun to watch.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It's always fun to go back and read this stuff. My in-the-moment take from two years ago: "I wanted something better than Odorizzi but straight up for Palacios? lol yes every day"
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Bolded: woof, understatement of the century. But I agree that Cave isn't a great fit for the Twins unless Buxton is injured (sigh) because he doesn't complement Rosario or Kepler. But I'd hate for the Twins to move away from him without getting anything in return, as he's a moderately valuable piece. But no way in hell would I trade Rosario to clear space for him, either. With the expanded roster in 2020, I suspect he'll make the opening man 26. After that, I don't know what should or will happen to him.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Given the Twins roster and their farm system, that's so unlikely to happen that I'm not even sure it's worth considering (though I appreciate the sentiment that Maeda deserved better than the Dodgers gave him and his contract should reflect the flexibility he brings to the roster).
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect he'll stay in the rotation for two reasons: 1. Pitching "depth" always seems to evaporate by July 2. Even if the Twins have some "depth", I struggle to see the likes of Homer Bailey pushing Maeda out of the rotation
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    But, see, now you're just skewing it the other direction. Cave became a regular player on August 3rd, when the Twins still had to face Cleveland three times, Boston once, the Nats once, Atlanta once, and Milwaukee once. Cave's improvement could be entirely luck-based or it could be a legitimate improvement. The reality of the situation is that over ~100 plate appearances, anything we try to glean from that minimal number of chances shows our own bias, not any factual evidence of who Jake Cave will be in 2020. Unless someone wants to spent a few hours digging into the minutia of exit velocity, opposing pitcher handedness, zone swing/take rates, and the slew of other data that might tell us more about Jake Cave's (possibly superficial) improvement, we're just throwing ideas at a wall. Andrew dug into those numbers a bit but it's still not convincing me of anything one way or the other because we saw two Jake Caves in 2019. The sample size is still small enough that there's a good chance it all means nothing.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    If Cave breaks out, great, but I'm not holding my breath. But he's just fine as a fourth outfielder. He's pretty good in that role, actually. But he's also the kind of marginal player that teams let go once they start making more than a couple of million dollars a season.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    First, Bailey became a much better flyer once Maeda was acquired as a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation. Initially, I hated the Bailey contract but once Maeda came along, it's a good deal. Like Sanchez in 2018, it's a good insurance policy until something better comes along. If you lose a couple of million in the process, big deal. That's literally 1.5% of the payroll as an insurance policy, then move on. This front office, thankfully, is willing to do that. Second, Gibson and Perez are entirely different entities, and that you lumped them together shows a lack of analysis. Perez had a hot start but overperformed his peripherals massively. Gibson was a good pitcher who was struck down by a sickness but everyone had reason to believe he'd rebound. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't only not recover but also learned he had a disease as a result of that sickness (which was borne out of charity work, mind you). So, maybe kinda different...
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    While it's easy to get sucked into the concept of "impact" and look at the likes of Zack Wheeler (and don't get me wrong, I think he's a better pitcher than Maeda going forward), both Wheeler and Maeda have a career FIP of exactly 3.71.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Unfortunately, I think that's not really the case. If the Twins did this, would you continue to be a fan? I would stand waaaaayyyyy back from them and scream at the sky about how they're wrong but I'd still tepidly be a fan... except for the Taubman thing. The thing is, I'm in the minority there. Most would just brush it aside for the laundry on the field. And for the record, while the Astros look like complete jackasses and got a lot of what was coming to them after the arrogance of the "banging scheme" (thanks, Effectively Wild), the really, truly, awful, ****ty thing they did was the Taubman incident, which should have sent baseball anger through the roof if baseball wasn't such an egocentric, patriarchal entity. That was unforgivable. To me, this entire cheating thing is just the icing on the cake to take down what is a truly horrible, wretched organization. As much as I hate the Yankees, they generally hold themselves to a high standard for behavior, both on and off the field. The Astros, frankly, can just go **** themselves. I despise them to my core and I will relish in every loss they take in the coming years until this entire front office is purged but not only because of the cheating, but because of what they've shown themselves to be over the past several months.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the Astros this offseason. How often do you see an entire front office and management team get to do such a spot-on Martin Shkreli impression?
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