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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. It's not about an Odorizzi and Maeda performance comparison straight-up; money and contract length also play a role (money being the primary reason the Rays dealt Odorizzi in the first place).
  2. This is truly a delightful thread to read through two years later. I was middling positive on Mejia. That, uh, didn't really work out. But holy gods, the hot takes...
  3. If those things happen, they're better than the 91 team. That doesn't mean the 2020 Twins will win the World Series but the best team often doesn't win the World Series so there's that. This team has a single weakness, literally one: the lack of a #1 starter. Past that, they're average or above average at literally every single other roster spot out of 25. That's amazing. Again, that guarantees nothing but this season sure should be fun to watch.
  4. It's always fun to go back and read this stuff. My in-the-moment take from two years ago: "I wanted something better than Odorizzi but straight up for Palacios? lol yes every day"
  5. Bolded: woof, understatement of the century. But I agree that Cave isn't a great fit for the Twins unless Buxton is injured (sigh) because he doesn't complement Rosario or Kepler. But I'd hate for the Twins to move away from him without getting anything in return, as he's a moderately valuable piece. But no way in hell would I trade Rosario to clear space for him, either. With the expanded roster in 2020, I suspect he'll make the opening man 26. After that, I don't know what should or will happen to him.
  6. Given the Twins roster and their farm system, that's so unlikely to happen that I'm not even sure it's worth considering (though I appreciate the sentiment that Maeda deserved better than the Dodgers gave him and his contract should reflect the flexibility he brings to the roster).
  7. I suspect he'll stay in the rotation for two reasons: 1. Pitching "depth" always seems to evaporate by July 2. Even if the Twins have some "depth", I struggle to see the likes of Homer Bailey pushing Maeda out of the rotation
  8. But, see, now you're just skewing it the other direction. Cave became a regular player on August 3rd, when the Twins still had to face Cleveland three times, Boston once, the Nats once, Atlanta once, and Milwaukee once. Cave's improvement could be entirely luck-based or it could be a legitimate improvement. The reality of the situation is that over ~100 plate appearances, anything we try to glean from that minimal number of chances shows our own bias, not any factual evidence of who Jake Cave will be in 2020. Unless someone wants to spent a few hours digging into the minutia of exit velocity, opposing pitcher handedness, zone swing/take rates, and the slew of other data that might tell us more about Jake Cave's (possibly superficial) improvement, we're just throwing ideas at a wall. Andrew dug into those numbers a bit but it's still not convincing me of anything one way or the other because we saw two Jake Caves in 2019. The sample size is still small enough that there's a good chance it all means nothing.
  9. If Cave breaks out, great, but I'm not holding my breath. But he's just fine as a fourth outfielder. He's pretty good in that role, actually. But he's also the kind of marginal player that teams let go once they start making more than a couple of million dollars a season.
  10. First, Bailey became a much better flyer once Maeda was acquired as a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation. Initially, I hated the Bailey contract but once Maeda came along, it's a good deal. Like Sanchez in 2018, it's a good insurance policy until something better comes along. If you lose a couple of million in the process, big deal. That's literally 1.5% of the payroll as an insurance policy, then move on. This front office, thankfully, is willing to do that. Second, Gibson and Perez are entirely different entities, and that you lumped them together shows a lack of analysis. Perez had a hot start but overperformed his peripherals massively. Gibson was a good pitcher who was struck down by a sickness but everyone had reason to believe he'd rebound. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't only not recover but also learned he had a disease as a result of that sickness (which was borne out of charity work, mind you). So, maybe kinda different...
  11. While it's easy to get sucked into the concept of "impact" and look at the likes of Zack Wheeler (and don't get me wrong, I think he's a better pitcher than Maeda going forward), both Wheeler and Maeda have a career FIP of exactly 3.71.
  12. Unfortunately, I think that's not really the case. If the Twins did this, would you continue to be a fan? I would stand waaaaayyyyy back from them and scream at the sky about how they're wrong but I'd still tepidly be a fan... except for the Taubman thing. The thing is, I'm in the minority there. Most would just brush it aside for the laundry on the field. And for the record, while the Astros look like complete jackasses and got a lot of what was coming to them after the arrogance of the "banging scheme" (thanks, Effectively Wild), the really, truly, awful, ****ty thing they did was the Taubman incident, which should have sent baseball anger through the roof if baseball wasn't such an egocentric, patriarchal entity. That was unforgivable. To me, this entire cheating thing is just the icing on the cake to take down what is a truly horrible, wretched organization. As much as I hate the Yankees, they generally hold themselves to a high standard for behavior, both on and off the field. The Astros, frankly, can just go **** themselves. I despise them to my core and I will relish in every loss they take in the coming years until this entire front office is purged but not only because of the cheating, but because of what they've shown themselves to be over the past several months.
  13. I have thoroughly enjoyed watching the Astros this offseason. How often do you see an entire front office and management team get to do such a spot-on Martin Shkreli impression?
  14. This is all so very strange. The way this deal never seems to end, I almost expect an announcement the Twins have acquired the rights to Fernando Venezuela in exchange for 40,000 Rubles and the Northwest Angle.
  15. I should have assumed spycake would manage to snipe me by a minute.
  16. No. He was given the qualifying offer this offseason, which exempts him from ever being given a QO again (and therefore, no comp pick).
  17. Losing baseball games on purpose will always be worse than cheating to win baseball games. I don't see how this is really in question.
  18. I'm definitely not a contract lawyer but the MLBPA has close to an air-tight CBA about player punishment and contract voiding. A player contract isn't just a contract, it's a contract under the massive umbrella of a collective agreement that restricts certain kinds of contracts, their agreements, and how they are terminated.
  19. I'm pretty sure that's not what Mike said, like AT ALL. Don't put words into other posters' mouths, especially when they're that derogatory in nature.
  20. Investigate before it came to this point. If MLB reveals its own dirty deeds, it looks a lot better than... this.
  21. I don’t like that the players got away with it but have come to accept why it happened that way. What bothers me even more are the indications that MLB knew about some of this stuff long ago and instead of doing something, sat still and hoped it would just go away.
  22. Still, that's a trade the Twins should make every day given their organization, which has (probably) better players both in front and behind Raley, who was on the 40-man roster. There simply wasn't going to be room to keep him there for long, forcing another trade or trying to sneak him through waivers, which probably wouldn't be successful. And if you can trade that kind of roster bloat for a catching flyer - something *much* harder to find in baseball - I do that all day long. I scratch my head and don't really like the money/pick swap but I have zero issues with the Raley/Camargo part of the deal.
  23. And you'd be wrong. The Rangers had a team ERA nearly one full run higher than the Twins last season. Boston was half a run higher. The Twins had a deceptively competent pitching staff last season. They had the second highest pitching staff fWAR and the third lowest FIP in the American League.
  24. Great post, and I agree with a lot of it. One thing, though: it's likely Maeda also moves the needle for the Twins in the postseason. As we watched the Twins limp into the 2019 postseason with 40% of a rotation intact, it's far from a guarantee that any one (or two or three) of Berrios, Hill, Odorizzi, or Pineda will be available to start an October baseball game. And adding another starter of similar quality greatly increases the odds of entering October with a competent rotation, something the Twins couldn't do last postseason and the Yankees annihilated them as a result (but it was definitely a team effort to collapse that spectacularly, not only the fault of the rotation).
  25. Especially given the Twins bullpen. Graterol is a great arm but the Twins already have a BUNCH of really good arms in the bullpen. What the Twins *don’t* have is a bunch of really good arms in the rotation and while Maeda isn’t the sexiest target in baseball, adding a fourth guy that slots in with similar numbers to Odorizzi, Pineda, and maybe even Berrios is a pretty big deal over 162 games. The Twins now have a solidly above average rotation and that shouldn’t be dismissed simply because they didn’t go out and get a flashy name.
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