Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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This is absolutely a win-now move. This rotation has depth but it's not very good depth, especially early in the season until Pineda comes back. The Twins have to win to make the postseason and this move will help them win baseball games. If that's not a win-now move, I think your bar is set a little too high. BTW, I'm not in love with this move, either, but the Twins are a better team today than they were yesterday. And that's what I want to see continue to happen through this year's trade deadline. -
Groannnnnnnn. Nelson, yer killin' me.
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Honestly, you're undervaluing the bolded and wildly overvaluing the rest. The Twins are trying to win today. Not tomorrow, not in 2023, but today. They have a deep farm system that can certainly weather the loss of what is likely a reliever, even a very good reliever. There comes a time where you stop worrying about what happens four years from now and start thinking about how to field a legitimately competitive team today. The Twins did that and while I don't *love* the deal, I can't find a real reason to complain about it, either. As of right now, the 2020 Twins are a better team than they were five hours ago and they didn't really impact the farm system in a meaningful way to do so. We can't have the cake and eat it, too. A team that wants to improve needs to give up assets to do so. The Twins did both.
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All I ask is that if you’re this convinced you’re right and want to say I told you so, be sure to check back in with cap in hand if you’re wrong.
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Injuries happen so probably not but that kind of depth is good to have in the rotation. The Twins probably won't get as lucky as they did with the 2019 rotation (until the Pineda suspension, anyway).
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Losing a comp pick isn't a huge deal. It stings a little but that's the price to pay for acquiring pieces to improve the MLB team. It's not as if they lost another legit prospect on top of Graterol, which is *always* worth more than a draft pick.
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Kind of my thoughts as well. At the end of the day, the Twins are now a better team and that’s what really matters to me. How they get there is meh unless they do something stupid, which is certainly not the case here.
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The Dodgers would have to liquidate a half dozen players to get under the competitive balance threshold number. Maeda doesn’t move the needle in that regard, as the Dodgers are still angling to add over $40m in payroll with Betts and Price.
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The Balazovic thing was a rumor but I think it was a likely ask from the Sox perspective. And the fact the front office didn't move from Graterol suggests they view the rest of their pitching prospects more highly, which is probably a good thing.
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It's not a cycle. Falvey and Levine were hired after the 2016 season. Rebuilding an entire farm system to modern standards and drafting the kind of players this front office wants to put on the field takes time. I don't expect to see this kind of mad-scramble to fill out a rotation with veterans happening any time soon with the slew of prospects the Twins have churning through the pipeline. The guys they wanted and drafted are only now entering the high minors so from this point forward, any success or failure will be on this front office.
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It would amuse me to no end if the Twins contacted Boston directly and pursued Price...something like Graterol and Javier with the Sox taking on a significant portion of Price's salary (let's say more than 25%, less than 50%). Then the Dodgers have to try to deal for Betts straight-up... good luck with that, you cheap bastards.
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- brusdar graterol
- wes johnson
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Yep, I think the Twins hold most of the cards here. If they back out, the Dodgers and Sox - who are *much* more invested in this trade - lose out on making badly-needed moves. Comparatively speaking, the Twins are the minor player in this deal and can back out without losing much, if anything. I suspect the Dodgers and Sox are working hard to find a way to make this trade work while the Twins are sitting back, saying "you two figure it out and let us know when you do".
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- kenta maeda
- brusdar graterol
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Did the Twins Pivot to a Superior Plan B?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Obviously, everyone wants Wheeler more than Maeda but it’s pretty hard to complain about Donaldson + Maeda instead of Wheeler + Graterol. -
He’s cheaper but in cost per win, Donaldson + Maeda is likely the better value, especially given the plans to keep Graterol in the bullpen. Outside of Ryu’s standout 2019, Maeda and Ryu aren’t really that different (Ryu being slightly better but the gap isn’t large), except Ryu is older and goes down with an injury almost every season.
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The more I sit on this deal, the more I like it. Sure, I would have preferred more upside but that probably would have come with less control, as well. And that contract is outrageous. If Maeda fails, the Twins are out one Tyler Clippard contract per year for the next four years. And the more the Twins pay Maeda, the more they've gotten from him on the field, which makes it really easy to write those checks should they balloon to $10m a season. Really a good deal overall, barring Graterol being a true top-flight ace, which is really unlikely to happen. Even if Graterol becomes a shut down reliever for six seasons, there's an equally good chance Maeda becomes a shut down reliever (or better) for four years, making even that situation close to a wash.
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As usual, fantastic work, Matthew.
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I agree on the pitching side but I'll take that bet all day long on the hitting side. I suspect any one of the Twins or Sox hitters outpace either or both of the Cleveland hitters and I'd actually put 3-4:1 odds on it happening. If you put that many good young hitters in the same equation, at least one or two of them will truly step out and become great. I might even put even odds on no Cleveland hitter being one of the best two hitters in the ALC. And that's no disrespect to Lindor, as he's amazing... but in a single season with a ton of breakout hitters ready to happen, it's easy to get lost in the mix, even without an injury (which is always a factor).
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I hate watching one episode at a time so the draw to subscribe is pretty weak for me. All I now know is that I *will* watch it, just in a month or two.
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The first episode was so good!
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CBS is streaming the first episode of Picard for free on YouTube for a limited time. Love the first episode. It's almost exactly what I wanted to see.
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I'm giving it six weeks or so, that way I can subscribe and binge for $7.
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I generally agree but the show isn't thematically consistent between seasons and the approach in the first season was vastly superior to the second season. My wife and I really enjoyed the first season.
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The second season was a huge letdown after the first season, which was all about research and finding the problem, not going in full Rambo and taking out an entire country by himself. The entire point of Jack Ryan is *not* to be a part of the action, as he left that world to be an analyst. That analyst job is literally his character catalyst moment. He cares SO MUCH, which brings him into occasional action, but his actual purpose is to be the smartest person in the room and only take (mild) action after the system fails him.
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Some credit should be given to previous front offices for the acquisition of raw talent but given the track record from 2010-2016, it’s hard to envision those front offices turning that group of players into the players they are today. Max Kepler looks a hell of a lot different at 2 WAR than he does 4 WAR.
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It definitely makes sense to give him a shot in the Opening Day rotation, but that's not what the Twins are hinting right now... unless I missed something, they specifically mentioned the bullpen. I'm wholly on board with a transition from rotation to the bullpen to keep his innings down. That makes a lot of sense. The inverse makes a lot less sense given the construction of this roster.
