Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Injuries happen so probably not but that kind of depth is good to have in the rotation. The Twins probably won't get as lucky as they did with the 2019 rotation (until the Pineda suspension, anyway). -
Losing a comp pick isn't a huge deal. It stings a little but that's the price to pay for acquiring pieces to improve the MLB team. It's not as if they lost another legit prospect on top of Graterol, which is *always* worth more than a draft pick.
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Kind of my thoughts as well. At the end of the day, the Twins are now a better team and that’s what really matters to me. How they get there is meh unless they do something stupid, which is certainly not the case here.
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The Dodgers would have to liquidate a half dozen players to get under the competitive balance threshold number. Maeda doesn’t move the needle in that regard, as the Dodgers are still angling to add over $40m in payroll with Betts and Price.
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The Balazovic thing was a rumor but I think it was a likely ask from the Sox perspective. And the fact the front office didn't move from Graterol suggests they view the rest of their pitching prospects more highly, which is probably a good thing.
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It's not a cycle. Falvey and Levine were hired after the 2016 season. Rebuilding an entire farm system to modern standards and drafting the kind of players this front office wants to put on the field takes time. I don't expect to see this kind of mad-scramble to fill out a rotation with veterans happening any time soon with the slew of prospects the Twins have churning through the pipeline. The guys they wanted and drafted are only now entering the high minors so from this point forward, any success or failure will be on this front office.
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It would amuse me to no end if the Twins contacted Boston directly and pursued Price...something like Graterol and Javier with the Sox taking on a significant portion of Price's salary (let's say more than 25%, less than 50%). Then the Dodgers have to try to deal for Betts straight-up... good luck with that, you cheap bastards.
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- brusdar graterol
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Yep, I think the Twins hold most of the cards here. If they back out, the Dodgers and Sox - who are *much* more invested in this trade - lose out on making badly-needed moves. Comparatively speaking, the Twins are the minor player in this deal and can back out without losing much, if anything. I suspect the Dodgers and Sox are working hard to find a way to make this trade work while the Twins are sitting back, saying "you two figure it out and let us know when you do".
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- kenta maeda
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Did the Twins Pivot to a Superior Plan B?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Obviously, everyone wants Wheeler more than Maeda but it’s pretty hard to complain about Donaldson + Maeda instead of Wheeler + Graterol. -
He’s cheaper but in cost per win, Donaldson + Maeda is likely the better value, especially given the plans to keep Graterol in the bullpen. Outside of Ryu’s standout 2019, Maeda and Ryu aren’t really that different (Ryu being slightly better but the gap isn’t large), except Ryu is older and goes down with an injury almost every season.
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The more I sit on this deal, the more I like it. Sure, I would have preferred more upside but that probably would have come with less control, as well. And that contract is outrageous. If Maeda fails, the Twins are out one Tyler Clippard contract per year for the next four years. And the more the Twins pay Maeda, the more they've gotten from him on the field, which makes it really easy to write those checks should they balloon to $10m a season. Really a good deal overall, barring Graterol being a true top-flight ace, which is really unlikely to happen. Even if Graterol becomes a shut down reliever for six seasons, there's an equally good chance Maeda becomes a shut down reliever (or better) for four years, making even that situation close to a wash.
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As usual, fantastic work, Matthew.
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I agree on the pitching side but I'll take that bet all day long on the hitting side. I suspect any one of the Twins or Sox hitters outpace either or both of the Cleveland hitters and I'd actually put 3-4:1 odds on it happening. If you put that many good young hitters in the same equation, at least one or two of them will truly step out and become great. I might even put even odds on no Cleveland hitter being one of the best two hitters in the ALC. And that's no disrespect to Lindor, as he's amazing... but in a single season with a ton of breakout hitters ready to happen, it's easy to get lost in the mix, even without an injury (which is always a factor).
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Some credit should be given to previous front offices for the acquisition of raw talent but given the track record from 2010-2016, it’s hard to envision those front offices turning that group of players into the players they are today. Max Kepler looks a hell of a lot different at 2 WAR than he does 4 WAR.
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It definitely makes sense to give him a shot in the Opening Day rotation, but that's not what the Twins are hinting right now... unless I missed something, they specifically mentioned the bullpen. I'm wholly on board with a transition from rotation to the bullpen to keep his innings down. That makes a lot of sense. The inverse makes a lot less sense given the construction of this roster.
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wut
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This is what I don't understand. If he's ready to start, put him in Minnesota. If he's not, well... the way this team is aligned, the first half of the season is going to be much more difficult to manage than the second half (in regards to the rotation), so I'm not really sure what they're doing here. Pretty early on, they'll get Pineda back. Hopefully after that, they'll get Hill. I'm not really sure how or where easing Graterol into the rotation works given the dynamics of this team.
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No, it's not. Trevor Plouffe, like Eddie Rosario in 2019, was a completely competent MLB starter. But the way the arbitration system works squeezes "competent starters" out of the mix in year 2/3 because it makes little sense to keep a 29 year old starter at $11m when you can go get a 31 year old starter for $6m. Trevor Plouffe has a career 8.2 fWAR. That's fine, that's what you would expect out of a decent MLB starter for several years but when arb clocks them in for 1.2 WAR at $11m, you cut bait. It's not an insult, it's just the financials of baseball because you can hit free agency and get a similar player for half the price.
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The reality is that Rosario wasn't very good last year. He was quite good the year before that. Don't promote lazy takes, no one wears them well. No one here wants Rosario to fail, as we are all Twins fans... but the reality of the situation is that he stumbled a bit last season, particularly on defense, and he's facing a big pay raise in the coming offseason. Cody is making a valid point: what will it take for the Rosario to earn that last year of arbitration when he's due something around $10m or more?
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Beat me to it. Besides, Johan wasn't close to Graterol at age 20. At age 20, Johan was a prospect lost in the Rule V draft, a prospect with upside but not enough upside to protect in the Astros system. It was only after a few stops and starts, a Cueller changeup, that Johan became the dominant force he was. Graterol is a different story. He's a 100mph pitcher with a good slider and a change/curve with potential. And he reached the majors at 20 years old while Santana only reached the majors at 21 out of necessity (the Rule V draft) and wasn't actually good until he was 23 years old. Not really the same situation... at all.
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I don’t like this much, at least not in 2020. The Twins’ bullpen is already pretty good, they don’t *need* Graterol. But that rotation sure could use a Graterol whether he arrives in 2021, 2022, or whenever.
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Yeah, White was coming off a "great" season where he played in all of 90-something games and posted a BABIP around .330, the highest he had posted since he played half his games on the bounce-happy turf of Olympic Stadium. While BABIP seems pretty primitive by today's standards, it was the type of thing smart teams were still paying attention to in the mid-2000s, which only illustrated how Ryan's front office was slipping behind the times (and continued to do so for the next decade). And no, this wasn't hindsight. All of this was discussed at great length before the 2006 season by the more sabr-inclined posters on the Elysian Fields and, later that season, BYTO.
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The Evolution of Trevor May
Brock Beauchamp replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Oh, I didn’t realize we were talking about an extension today. I was acting as if May was a FA today and what he’d probably get. If the Twins pursue an extension before the season starts, definitely lop a couple of million off that AAV. -
The Evolution of Trevor May
Brock Beauchamp replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think that’s reasonable. Maybe 2/$14m gets it done, but I don’t think it will. Daniel Hudson just signed for 2/$11m and I’d *much* rather have the upside and age of May. No, May isn’t stellar but stellar relievers don’t sign 2/$15m deals. Good relievers sign that kind of deal and May is a good reliever. -
The Evolution of Trevor May
Brock Beauchamp replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think May will want something more in the range of $8-9m a year.
