Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Different deals.
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Now I'm hearing they're pursuing two separate starters. Targeting both, not an if/or.
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The Twins could get Ohtani and some people would find a way to be mad about it. PS. The Twins aren't getting Ohtani.
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SP, possibly more.
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If the rumors are correct, most people will be happy about it.
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I've been hearing some very interesting names bandied about over the past hour but not confident enough to start listing them.
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It's a big one.
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I can't recall there ever being a restriction on trading someone on the DL/IL but I could be wrong.
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Twins Acquire Orioles Closer Jorge Lopez
Brock Beauchamp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's quite a haul for Lopez but probably worth the price of admission. It seems that every time I check into this deal, another player coming from the Twins has been added.- 113 replies
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- jorge lopez
- cade povich
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Most of it was as a starter, though, so the uptick in performance could easily be sustainable.
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Can't ask for a bigger bullpen upgrade than that. And Cade Povich in return? ****, I do that all day.
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Okay, sure. ESPN has Great American as the second highest ballpark factor behind Coors this season and they're regularly top five. The lowest I saw the park is 12th back when the Reds had a good pitching staff. https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor Baseball Savant mirrors that data. If the Reds are good, GAB is somewhere in the 8-14 range in ballpark factors. If the Reds are bad, it's top five. That tells me the ballpark is significantly skewed toward hitting because in the past decade, the park has never been in the bottom half of the league, not once. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors Target Field is close to the inverse but plays more neutrally. If the Twins are good, TF regularly sits in the 16-25 range. If the Twins are atrocious, it occasionally cracks the top ten. It never reaches the bottom nor top five of ballparks from what I saw.
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What's the opposite of that? Taylor Rogers - 88 ERA+, 7 blown saves, -0.5 WPA Emilio Pagan - 77 ERA+, -0.4 WPA (how is this not worse?) Chris Paddack - out for the season
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Twins should be sellers, not buyers..
Brock Beauchamp replied to Vagnavs's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The Twins should not sell. There is no perfect season where the Twins will be gifted a World Series championship. If you have a shot, take it. Every. Time. -
That's a good way to put it. If the Twins were to land Soto, I think it would take something like: Lewis, Steer, Miranda, and a good pitching prospect. And given how offense isn't even close to a problem with this team, the Twins should not be playing in those waters.
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That's not even close to enough to land Soto.
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Someone should tell Danny that you're supposed to jump off a sinking ship.
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All very true but I'm not much of a believer in xFIP. I think it has serious flaws, like the fact that some pitchers can induce weak flyballs better than others. Normalizing to league average underscores that ability; take for example old friend Jake Odorizzi, whose ERA outperforms his xFIP every year, some times as much as a full run. For his career - 1,200 innings pitched so well past the point of ERA normalizing - his career xFIP is half a run higher than his career ERA. That's no longer a fluctuation, that's a data error. I think xFIP is too cute by half. Give me regular ol' FIP every day.
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This deadline was stunted a bit due to the Qualifying Offer being up in the air and the expanded playoffs. Notice that until the past day or so, no one of note has been traded anywhere in MLB. There was a lot of money and value tied up in that International Draft vs Qualifying Offer negotiation that only ended... two days ago? I think two days ago.
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They realize the importance of pitching. They believe the ROI on good free agent pitching is abysmal and they're not wrong. While I want to see them play a little in the higher-end pitching market, the real path to winning is developing pitching. And as long as they continue trying to acquire pitching via trade, that's probably a better alternative than outright free agent spending. While they were burned on Paddack - at least for now - their acquisitions of Odorizzi and Maeda were very good. Hopefully they can do that again in the coming days.
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Can't lose on an off day.
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Oh, I'm not saying it should have happened already, I'm only saying that I expect the Reds to move one of Castillo/Mahle before the deadline and the other at the deadline (if they're going to trade both).
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The Reds would probably trade Mahle now because it depletes the starting pitcher market and that allows them to more aggressively shop Castillo. This strategy would likely pay off if Oakland continues to be stubborn about Montas. It would put the Reds in the driver's seat going into deadline day. Get a fair price for Mahle now, try to hose someone with Castillo in a few days.
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People don't pay enough attention to just how much Great American hurts flyball pitchers. I don't know if Mahle is top 30 but he's WAY better than his ERA indicates.
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The Athletic's Dan Hayes mentions briefly that the Twins are more interested in Tyler Mahle than they are Luis Castillo. Mahle doesn't have the eye-popping stats of Castillo but would be a considerable upgrade to the Twins' rotation, as would Castillo. If the Twins are pursuing Mahle over Castillo, is it due to price, untapped potential, or both? I still think Montas is a long shot, the A's seem to be really intent on asking top dollar for him. If they haven't already overplayed their hand, I think there's a good chance they'll end up doing so. View full trade rumor
