Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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They go on the data they have available, which is about a month of workouts and training. Is that enough? Probably not but it’s what they have. -
Did they keep them based on spring training box scores, though? I feel like there's a correlation and causation issue you're missing here. Certainly in the case of Wisler and Harper, a refined pitch approach led to better spring results but without the underlying analysis that led to that altered approach in the first place, the shiny box scores wouldn't exist. So did the Twins look at the box score and make a decision or did they see individual potential, make analytical-based changes, and then base their decision on the changes they saw within that player? It's almost surely the latter, rendering the box score analysis somewhat irrelevant. And if the Twins were swayed by box scores, it was coupled with loads of more nuanced data and analysis we do not have, which makes basing opinions only on box scores really misguided. We're looking at *maybe* 10% of the data and challenging the decisions of people who have 100% of the data.
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Bolded: Yes. Absolutely, yes. The stats don't matter. But there may be correlation to success that are displayed through successful box scores, such as plate discipline, exit velocity, and launch angle. But there are also troublesome box scores that may want to influence but mean little to nothing, such as Garlick batting .350, which skews his entire triple slash line and is unsustainable.
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The vast majority of spring training happens outside a box score and that’s where the Twins are making their decisions.
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Right?!?!?! I'm excited to see what Rooker can do. As I mentioned in another thread, he has done nothing but succeed since being drafted and I hope he continues that streak in a Minnesota uniform this season. It's also a bummer for Kirilloff because if a damned pandemic didn't drop on our heads last year, it's likely he's also in a Minnesota Twins uniform right now alongside Rooker. Frankly, this situation is pretty muddy and there isn't a clear answer, I can see the validity of both sides. And while it's fine to be disappointed for Kirilloff, the certainty felt by some about the decision one way or the other is quite unwarranted. It's a tough call to make.
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Even if Rooker doesn't make the roster, there's virtually a zero percent chance he's taken off the 40-man roster and at this point, I believe he's close to a lock to make the 26-man for Opening Day. He's something of a defensive liability but given that he's a capable RHB, he's pretty badly needed in both the lineup and specifically the OF alongside a Cave platoon.
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I think there's a pretty good chance for Broxton to stick with the organization, knowing that Buxton is Mr Glass and he's the best (only?) reasonable AAAA backup behind him in an org that plans to contend for the division. I think he probably gets lost in the shuffle that is the mad dash of last-minute demotions that happens before Opening Day and if he has an opt-out (again, haven't looked into it), I suspect he won't get much more of an opportunity to log MLB games than he would in Minnesota and there's a good chance he opts to stay here in the org.
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The expectations for Cave and Broxton’s bats aren’t close to a wash. Cave has proven himself a capable MLB hitter, Broxton has not... and Cave is quite a bit younger, to boot.
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Why prioritize Rooker’s playing time right now? Maybe because the Twins feel they’ll field a better team in April by doing so. And it’s not as if Kirilloff will be sitting around doing nothing. I’m sure he’ll be playing some form of extended spring training, though it’d be a lot better (and an easier decision to make) if MLB hadn’t postponed the AAA season.
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Can someone explain to me why we're so bullish on Garlick? Because of 28 Spring Training plate appearances? Come on, people, you've all been baseball fans long enough to know better than that. Even ignoring the bit about rusty pitchers and facing MiLB quality talent, Garlick could have five bad games in a row and his stats are pedestrian, if not terrible, again. Sigh.
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That's a pretty raw deal for Cave, who looks particularly appealing as a platoon candidate with Rooker and has all but earned an MLB roster spot until he shows otherwise (I'm basically writing off all 2020 performances because there are so many crazy, unexplained oddities in individual performances).
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I don't think anyone here is crazy enough to measure Garlick's worth over Kirilloff but bench guys are needed and if it comes to one or the other sitting around and doing nothing five days a week, I choose Garlick. As for Rooker, the picture gets a lot muddier if you compare him to Kirilloff. Previous MiLB performances are pretty outdated at this point but Rooker hit quite well in the upper minors (~.850 OPS) while Kirilloff scuffled (~.750 OPS, largely due to injury but the numbers are still there) and Brent has a lot more experience facing higher calibre pitching. Rooker is a lot older and likely closer to his peak self as of today. And, to be blunt, the team probably doesn't care as much if Rooker receives inconsistent playing time at the MLB level while they're more focused in on Kirilloff's development arc. I can see some pretty legitimate arguments for keeping Kirilloff in the minors for now without even factoring in service time.
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Broxton has played in parts of five MLB seasons so I don't see any possible way he could have options remaining. I didn't pay attention to the transaction wire when the Twins picked him up but he's almost certainly a FA.
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I generally agree but the current Kirilloff situation shares little in common with what the Cubs did to Bryant. Kirilloff played scrimmage games against the same pitchers all of last season, excluding a single postseason game, and unsurprisingly seems rusty as a result. The Twins also have Rooker, who appears to be more ready in the here and now, though has a lower upside than Alex. Whereas the Cubs blatantly held back Bryant for service time considerations and everyone knew it.
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Rooker is also a lot older, has a full season at AA, half a season at AAA, and played a handful of MLB games before getting injured last season. Kirilloff certainly has a (much) higher ceiling than Rooker but there are plenty of reasons to go with Brent to open the season.
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Going into Spring Training, I suspect the Twins were leaning away from Kirilloff making the roster and him not hitting certainly doesn't help his case, though I'm not sure how much it hurts, either. All in all, I suspect the default plan was for Rooker to make the roster over Kirilloff. It's hard to keep them both on the same 26-man, at least to open the season. And Alex probably hasn't changed any minds in that regard, factoring in his lack of hitting or not. Which is too bad because with the AAA season pushed back, it means he won't be getting the reps he needs (along with everyone else who needs reps after not playing in games that matter since September of 2019).
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Almost certainly. I'm not even convinced it will happen at all this season. Which is really unfortunate because I'm super excited to take the family to at least one, hopefully more, Saints games this season.
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Right now, roughly 20% of Minnesotans have had at least one vaccine shot (which, while not 100% effective, one shot is a big immunization in itself). It's the ninth of March. And the scale is only ramping up, there's a good chance we're at 30%+ of the entire population getting at least one shot by Opening Day. Instead of arguing about numbers, maybe take a moment to realize how much we've all done (well, some of us) to get to this point and how close we are to the end zone.
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Good. I'm not sure what numbers we should be opening up in or how quickly, but it's time to start moving that direction. At some point, we need to tear the band-aid off and live our lives again. I don't know if that should start to happen in April or June but it's going to happen soon.
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The Immigration Challenges Ballplayers Face
Brock Beauchamp replied to Cory Caouette's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Someone with extensive experience writes up this lengthy explanation of the process, including why it’s so difficult to predict timelines due to government bureaucracy and a pandemic, and this is your response? -
Polanco was also the walking wounded most of last season. It’s not a given that he’s healthy again but there was something obviously wrong with Jorge in 2020 and I hope he’s past it now.
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I believe Maeda will regress, which I’ve said many times. What I don’t believe is that he will revert back to his career numbers with the Dodgers because “fluke season”.
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Holy crap, what does BP have against Kirilloff? That's a huge gap between the next lowest and BP in the top 100 rankings.
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Shaddup, you. Edited and fixed for obvious reasons.
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LOL I completely forgot about 2017. Sigh.
