Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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It's troubling to give up two MLB or close to MLB ready pitchers but I probably make this trade if I'm confident Castillo is healthy. But it's a damned dangerous trade to make, especially for the 2024 season. -
View File 2022 Trade Deadline - NL Central A brief trade deadline primer on the teams in the National League Central division. This book is exclusive to Twins Daily caretakers so subscribe today, with packages starting as low as $6! Submitter Brock Beauchamp Submitted 07/20/2022 Category Publications
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Version 1.0.0
A brief trade deadline primer on the teams in the National League Central division. This book is exclusive to Twins Daily caretakers so subscribe today, with packages starting as low as $6!$0.00 -
That's easily the biggest problem I see with this trade idea. It's skimming the Twins farm system in a way that probably doesn't appeal to the Reds.
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Hey now, let's be fair, no one can half-ass code like I can.
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Testing comment cross-functionality.
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Personally, I'm not sure I'd target high end pitching at the deadline but maybe that's just me. I think teams are going to be unreasonable in their asks, as there aren't that many quality pitchers available. I think the most hay will be made in the bullpen but Castillo is a very intriguing pitcher and in my opinion, the Twins hosed the Reds pretty hard with the Gray trade. The median outcome of Chase Petty is interesting reliever and two years of Gray for that price is a bargain. Could the Twins do it again? https://sportsnaut.com/how-luis-castillo-minnesota-twins-trade-could-look/ View full trade rumor
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Personally, I'm not sure I'd target high end pitching at the deadline but maybe that's just me. I think teams are going to be unreasonable in their asks, as there aren't that many quality pitchers available. I think the most hay will be made in the bullpen but Castillo is a very intriguing pitcher and in my opinion, the Twins hosed the Reds pretty hard with the Gray trade. The median outcome of Chase Petty is interesting reliever and two years of Gray for that price is a bargain. Could the Twins do it again? https://sportsnaut.com/how-luis-castillo-minnesota-twins-trade-could-look/
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This is pretty obvious for anyone who has watched the team in even a passing manner but Do-Hyoung Park outlines the thinking behind the Twins' approach at the deadline. Who do you think they will target and what will they have to give up to repair their rapidly-spiraling pitching staff? https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-likely-to-seek-pitching-help-at-trade-deadline View full trade rumor
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This is pretty obvious for anyone who has watched the team in even a passing manner but Do-Hyoung Park outlines the thinking behind the Twins' approach at the deadline. Who do you think they will target and what will they have to give up to repair their rapidly-spiraling pitching staff? https://www.mlb.com/news/twins-likely-to-seek-pitching-help-at-trade-deadline
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Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
Brock Beauchamp replied to raindog's topic in Twins Daily's Questions About The Site
This is a really good idea, let me think about the best way to do it. -
I would *maybe* offer him two additional years if he finishes the season decently, giving him three guaranteed years. Any more than that, hard pass. Gray is a really nice pitcher today but not the kind of pitcher I bet on for a long-term contract.
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I’m Incredibly Bored of Position Players Pitching
Brock Beauchamp commented on Vanimal46's blog entry in Minnesota Twins Whine Line
Yep. Analytics are great in a vacuum, as they’re improving the chance of a team to win in any given season. But MLB has been woefully inept in stopping analytics from deteriorating the fan experience. And that’s what needs to change. Analytics aren’t the problem, MLB’s lack of response is the problem. -
I’m Incredibly Bored of Position Players Pitching
Brock Beauchamp commented on Vanimal46's blog entry in Minnesota Twins Whine Line
Yep, this. Statistical analysis has led to the current use of positional players pitching. A five run deficit is a loss 97%+ of the time so why try? And analytics aren’t wrong here for thinking that. Those are the numbers. But this is a spectator sport driven by the money of people being interested in the product. Analytics being right about game probability doesn’t mean they should be allowed to further deteriorate the spectator experience. -
I’m Incredibly Bored of Position Players Pitching
Brock Beauchamp commented on Vanimal46's blog entry in Minnesota Twins Whine Line
MLB should implement a rule that teams must announce 7-8 pitchers available to use in that game when they announce batter lineups. If they burn through all of those pitchers in extras, then they are allowed to just throw whatever they want on the mound. It's their game to lose at that point. -
Do I even want to watch this game? I'm not sure I want to watch this game.
- Show previous comments 5 more
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ROCCO IS THE GREATEST!! WE WON, WE WON!!!
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- Brock Beauchamp, wsnydes and cHawk
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Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022
Brock Beauchamp commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
Jeffers now up to an 85 wRC+ after two weeks of continuing to make good contact and finally getting some luck to go with it. If someone has elite barrel numbers and bad luck, we shouldn’t be concerned. The barrel rate is more telling than the sub-.200 batting average that’s based on a sub-.250 BABIP. Will Jeffers continue to barrel the ball? Hard to say but that’s the information we should be tracking, especially with the size of these samples. -
Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022
Brock Beauchamp commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
Yeah, that's the takeaway to make here. The reality is that based on batted ball profiles, Jeffers had one kinda bad year in 2021. He was good in shortened 2020 and his batted ball profile is once again pretty good in 2022 (adjusting for catchers). He's still 25 with less than a full MLB season played in total. I'm not writing him off yet just because his BABIP is under .250. At the core of it, you're just not giving Jeffers' defense a fair shake. His pop time is almost smack-dab in the middle of MLB catchers at 47th percentile. His framing - the most important aspect of the game today - is borderline elite at 75th percentile. He's not exceptional in either direction with passed balls. He's average at a bunch of stuff and really good at the thing that matters most. -
Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022
Brock Beauchamp commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
This just doesn't cut it. First, you're parsing really small sample sizes (Jeffers doesn't even have 600 career PAs yet) and the second half of the statement is nonsense trying to excuse away a really big discrepancy between Jeffers' surface stats and his underlying metrics. In 2020, Jeffers' difference between wOBA and xwOBA was .003. In 2021, that difference was .010. In 2022, the difference is .065. This is the first year his metrics have not aligned with performance. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/ryan-jeffers/24618/stats?position=C PS. I'm not even that high on Ryan Jeffers, I think he's an average-ish starting catcher for a few years. But getting that player in the second round is a hell of a draft pick. -
Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022
Brock Beauchamp commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
I mean, one doesn't have to look far to see the last paragraph in action: Griffin Jax. A marginal third round pick taken because the Twins liked his slider. Sure, he didn't work out as a starter because he couldn't develop much past that slider but now he looks like he'll be a multi-year contributor at the very least (barring injury). That's not an accident. Sure, the Twins may have taken a different third rounder the year before that fell on their face, that's baseball for you. But they intentionally targeted something about Jax that made them think he will be an MLB contributor and he's now contributing to the MLB team based on that single skill they targeted and refined. -
Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022
Brock Beauchamp commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
Well, the 2018 draft is still very much a work in progress and Jeffers was a college draft pick so it's not really surprising he's leading the second round pack in June of 2022. But it should also be noted that Larnach (though also a college pick so keep that in mind) is around fifth in overall WAR from the first round but was only the 20th pick of the round. This grading scale seems impossibly difficult, where one must draft an All-Star or better to receive a decent grade. The reality of the draft is that if you get a competent regular from the first round every year, your baseball team will be very good. If you get more than one competent regular from any single draft, you had a very good draft. And I simply do not buy into the statement that anything after the third round is a crapshoot. That's where coaching and development comes into play; yes, the later rounds are more random but that's where good franchises pick the flawed players they like and try to coach them into being an MLB player. Dismissing those rounds out of hand ignores a big reason why the Tampa Bay Rays are perennially excellent while other franchises can't win after a half decade of top picks. -
Grading Falvey's Drafts Mid 2022
Brock Beauchamp commented on bean5302's blog entry in Shallow Thoughts - bean5302
You're too harsh on Jeffers. While his conventional stats are slightly ugly (but remember that while his 74 wRC+ looks terrible, league catchers only have an 87 wRC+), his advanced stats tell a different story. His wOBA is .269 while his xwOBA is .340. His barrel rate is 93rd percentile. His xSLG is 77th percentile. Given Jeffers' defense, even if he only climbs up to a league average 87 wRC+ (and his batted ball stats look like he's better than that), he's a valuable starting catcher. -
Same. I never had anything against Sanchez personally, I just hated his player profile: all power, no contact, absolutely horrific behind the plate. He was not a guy I wanted on this team but the Twins sprinkled their magic catcher pixie dust on him, which I didn't think possible.
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I hated Gary Sanchez being on this team and am very glad to be wrong about that. Sanchez is setting himself up for a nice little payday this winter.
