Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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I left in the seventh because the stadium was being swarmed by non-baseball fans who were walking up and down the aisles non-stop and blocking sight lines. One person stood with her back to the field for two minutes while the Twins had the bases loaded, entirely blocking my view of the plate. Combined with a *very* bad baseball game where even Gray and Manoah were borderline unwatchable due to the walks and agonizingly slow pace of play, it was one of the worst baseball experiences I've sat through. Which was really disappointing, as I think the Jays are the most exciting team in baseball, maybe excepting the Padres.- 10 replies
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- target field
- cole swindell
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They may not have had the gaps but that also speaks to just how underwhelming their rosters have played this season. The Twins shot themselves in the foot constantly during the first 100 games but their BaseRuns record is even with their real record. Should they merely cease sabotaging themselves, they're probably a 90-win team. Whereas BaseRuns has Cleveland at one game worse than their actual record and the White Sox at three games worse, four games under .500. The Twins had big gaping holes that they mostly patched up at the deadline. The Guardians and White Sox are just mediocre. It will be a massive disappointment if the Twins don't win the division. They're the best team.
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Will they need to pay more attention in the foreseeable future? Maybe not. They have Duran for five more years, Jax for... five? And Lopez for two more seasons after 2022. Provided none of those guys fall off a cliff - a possibility with all relievers - the Twins shouldn't have to go shopping for relievers for awhile. They also have guys like Alcala and Maeda coming back and some of their upper minors prospects are sure to flame out of starting games. The Twins bullpen is looking really nice for the next couple of years.
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Twins Acquire Orioles Closer Jorge Lopez
Brock Beauchamp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's quite a haul for Lopez but probably worth the price of admission. It seems that every time I check into this deal, another player coming from the Twins has been added.- 113 replies
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- jorge lopez
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Okay, sure. ESPN has Great American as the second highest ballpark factor behind Coors this season and they're regularly top five. The lowest I saw the park is 12th back when the Reds had a good pitching staff. https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor Baseball Savant mirrors that data. If the Reds are good, GAB is somewhere in the 8-14 range in ballpark factors. If the Reds are bad, it's top five. That tells me the ballpark is significantly skewed toward hitting because in the past decade, the park has never been in the bottom half of the league, not once. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors Target Field is close to the inverse but plays more neutrally. If the Twins are good, TF regularly sits in the 16-25 range. If the Twins are atrocious, it occasionally cracks the top ten. It never reaches the bottom nor top five of ballparks from what I saw.
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All very true but I'm not much of a believer in xFIP. I think it has serious flaws, like the fact that some pitchers can induce weak flyballs better than others. Normalizing to league average underscores that ability; take for example old friend Jake Odorizzi, whose ERA outperforms his xFIP every year, some times as much as a full run. For his career - 1,200 innings pitched so well past the point of ERA normalizing - his career xFIP is half a run higher than his career ERA. That's no longer a fluctuation, that's a data error. I think xFIP is too cute by half. Give me regular ol' FIP every day.
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This deadline was stunted a bit due to the Qualifying Offer being up in the air and the expanded playoffs. Notice that until the past day or so, no one of note has been traded anywhere in MLB. There was a lot of money and value tied up in that International Draft vs Qualifying Offer negotiation that only ended... two days ago? I think two days ago.
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They realize the importance of pitching. They believe the ROI on good free agent pitching is abysmal and they're not wrong. While I want to see them play a little in the higher-end pitching market, the real path to winning is developing pitching. And as long as they continue trying to acquire pitching via trade, that's probably a better alternative than outright free agent spending. While they were burned on Paddack - at least for now - their acquisitions of Odorizzi and Maeda were very good. Hopefully they can do that again in the coming days.
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Oh, I'm not saying it should have happened already, I'm only saying that I expect the Reds to move one of Castillo/Mahle before the deadline and the other at the deadline (if they're going to trade both).
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The Reds would probably trade Mahle now because it depletes the starting pitcher market and that allows them to more aggressively shop Castillo. This strategy would likely pay off if Oakland continues to be stubborn about Montas. It would put the Reds in the driver's seat going into deadline day. Get a fair price for Mahle now, try to hose someone with Castillo in a few days.
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People don't pay enough attention to just how much Great American hurts flyball pitchers. I don't know if Mahle is top 30 but he's WAY better than his ERA indicates.
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The Athletic's Dan Hayes mentions briefly that the Twins are more interested in Tyler Mahle than they are Luis Castillo. Mahle doesn't have the eye-popping stats of Castillo but would be a considerable upgrade to the Twins' rotation, as would Castillo. If the Twins are pursuing Mahle over Castillo, is it due to price, untapped potential, or both? I still think Montas is a long shot, the A's seem to be really intent on asking top dollar for him. If they haven't already overplayed their hand, I think there's a good chance they'll end up doing so. View full trade rumor
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The Athletic's Dan Hayes mentions briefly that the Twins are more interested in Tyler Mahle than they are Luis Castillo. Mahle doesn't have the eye-popping stats of Castillo but would be a considerable upgrade to the Twins' rotation, as would Castillo. If the Twins are pursuing Mahle over Castillo, is it due to price, untapped potential, or both? I still think Montas is a long shot, the A's seem to be really intent on asking top dollar for him. If they haven't already overplayed their hand, I think there's a good chance they'll end up doing so.
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Exactly. Saying the White Sox will win the division is a pretty even-handed take. I can make an argument for any of the three teams right now but the Twins currently have the lead, which gives them the advantage. But predicting a 9-10 game swing is outlandish. There's literally nothing to indicate that will be the case. The Twins continue to tread water while the White Sox continue to bounce around .500, never getting more than a couple of games over before sliding again.
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I really doubt they’ll even consider Maeda for the rotation given the need in the bullpen and how much longer it would take for Kenta to work up to 100 pitches.
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In his trade deadline roundup, Ken Rosenthal writes that the Twins need to make a splash and rival officials are predicting the team to fade away as the summer rolls along. One official said the Guardians are better than the Twins, which is probably a fair assessment... but the shocking prediction from another official is that the White Sox will win the division by 5+ games when all is said and done. That's a lot of confidence for a team that has underperformed at every turn through 100 games and currently sits four games back of the Twins, a team that peaked at four games over .500... on April 16th. So, how likely do you think it is the Twins will win the AL Central this season? View full trade rumor
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In his trade deadline roundup, Ken Rosenthal writes that the Twins need to make a splash and rival officials are predicting the team to fade away as the summer rolls along. One official said the Guardians are better than the Twins, which is probably a fair assessment... but the shocking prediction from another official is that the White Sox will win the division by 5+ games when all is said and done. That's a lot of confidence for a team that has underperformed at every turn through 100 games and currently sits four games back of the Twins, a team that peaked at four games over .500... on April 16th. So, how likely do you think it is the Twins will win the AL Central this season?
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I was the one who said they're both bad (and implied they were interchangeable).
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Trade Rumor: Should the Twins Trade Carlos Correa?
Brock Beauchamp replied to cHawk's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
No. And it’s a dumb idea to even consider trading him.- 30 replies
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I mean, not really. In Sano's first 500-ish innings, he posted a -5 DRS. Miranda has a -2 DRS in about half that number of innings. They're both bad at the position in the early going, I'm not sure either should be considered "worse" than the other.
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True. What I find most appealing about Steer is the fact that he'll probably hit and can do it at several positions. I'm sure if you put an OF glove in his hand, he'd be just fine out there, too (though obviously would need to hit more to be an asset there).
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Oh, I agree that fans overrate prospects, I'm just factoring in the timeline of the Reds and questioning whether they want a 2022 impact player or a 2024 impact player. They very well may prefer the latter, especially given Steer's defensive flexibility.
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Miranda has played fewer than 550 innings at first base in his professional career. Sano has triple that number of innings and was really bad at the position in the early going.
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Is Larnach more valuable than Steer? I'm not sure. Larnach's bat has a higher floor but Steer is way more versatile defensively. I think it really depends where a team is in the competitive cycle. In the case of the Reds, I might lean Steer for the upside play further down the road over Larnach's immediate impact.
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By the way, I *really* like the format of this piece. For those of you who can't access it, a bunch of team writers for The Athletic propose trades for Castillo and then Keith Law grades them all. It's a really good approach to giving fans a barometer of what it might take to trade for a specific player.
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