Twins Minor League Report (9/12): Kernels Headed to the Championship Series

Always enjoy reading these wraps even after watching the games. Thank you.

Watched the games, pausing and switching back and forth quickly to catch most of the action.

St. Paul is a little tentative due to their long losing streak but played decently. Abel has stuff but finishing off batters and commanding his pitches is still a work in progress. Jenkins, Gonzalez, and Rodriguez looked pretty good tonight. Jenkins is on the quick learning curve, doing fine with a sweet swing.

Wichita is tough. They are determined to win. Rosario is a leader and Mendez can swing a bat. Cossetti had a good game.

Cedar Rapids got great relief pitching after a power outage caused a long delay in the first inning that resulted in a pitching change. The lineup was relentless with Urbina driving in 3 runs. The Kernels now face West Michigan that finished the year with a 92-39 record, the best in the minor leagues.

Really good day for the minor league teams. The Saints really needed a win today and I'm sure they're all glad to finally have one. Good on the Kernels too for another year moving further in their playoffs. I wonder if Wichita can make up that one game difference though, really can't allow a mistake in these next two games. But they've definitely been an impressive team this year with many players who started the season and promoted out or played the season there having breakout years. Whoever was coaching the wind surge this year really unlocked a lot of these guys' development, feels like there's always a guy there who's surpassed their career best in every metric. Like Kala'i Rosario managing to become a top tier stealer with 32 in this year after only having 16 across all his previous seasons COMBINED and generally having one of his best offensive years, coming just short of a 30/30 season. Or even a guy like Paredes(who I have sung the praises of before), who stayed pretty under the radar in the system, but has managed to lead the Texas League in wins(taking the Wind Surge franchise record), and then now took the Wind Surge's lead in saves for this season after shifting to closing out games with another hitless outing in a year that's had him see the most action he's had in his minors career.

5 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I've just NEVER seen a CAREER profile like him before. Somewhat like Sano, he gets a lot of K's because he's almost TOO patient looking for a good pitch to hit. Thus not a great HIT profile where it's often debated he should swing earlier. But he also has an AMAZING .420 OB% for his MILB career that again,

Offensively, how is Rodriguez different than Julien's minor league career? They seem similar to me.

Saints' game was very interesting. They were greatly out hit but got on base (Emma, 0 hits, 3BB) while getting some big hits. Fedko at 1B? Interesting. Keirsey leading off? GG in RF where he belongs, good.

Good luck to the Kernals!

Was a bummer to see Bohorquez struggle like that; he'd been on a nice run where he wasn't getting himself into trouble with walks, so it's a bummer to see that come back up on him. But he's still had a good season and has been handling High A pretty well at 20 and you can see why he's an intriguing prospect: hunts K's, not that easy to hit, not too homer-happy...if he can keep the K's down around 3 BB/9 he could be something.

I'm still concerned with Houston's hit tool, so it's nice to see him have a good game. We know the defense is there, but he'll need to hit at least a little, and so far he's getting pushed around in Cedar Rapids.

Tait's slash line won't set hearts thumping, but at 18 he's doing fine. Here's hoping he finishes out strong, gets on a good offseason program and comes back to Cedar Rapids to start next season and crushes his way into a promotion.

Rosario's had a good season. He should be in Saint Paul next season, and it'll be interesting to see whether this aggression on the bases continues and he can keep himself a threat that way. AAA pitching and catching should do a better job of holding runners and throwing guys out, so it'll be a better test. Hope his defense can tick up more in the corners too.

Great seeing Houston have a game like last night.  If his defense is as good as advertised, he just needs to hit a little to be a valuable part of the Twins future.

And thanks to all of the above comments from you all who are watching the games.  They are appreciated.

Can the Kernels bring back another championship?  Please!

4 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Offensively, how is Rodriguez different than Julien's minor league career? They seem similar to me.

Exactly. Rodriguez is supposed to have way more raw power than Julien, but hasn’t shown that at AAA. The approaches are very, very similar…and have no chance of working in the majors unless you demonstrate great, and consistently great power. If anything, Rodriquez has even more swing and miss in him than does Julien…at least at this point.

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

AAA:

Abel, despite his 2 brief poor ML appearances for the Twins, has really improved his control/command at the AAA level. And the Twins are mixing up his repertoire. It would be silly to give up on his potential based on a couple bad appearances. 3 good IP tonight show the potential. BUT...NOT to do what I just said...with the number of arms currently in play for 2026 and beyond...this changes if Lopez or Ryan are moved...I can still see a strong back end arm for the bullpen. Just saying. I sure wouldn't go there yet.

I think the move of MacLeod to the pen is permanent. And it makes sense. He hasn't mastered AAA yet after a good AA season, but a few more appearances like tonight...and he's had a couple of them so far...he might be in play for a 2026 pen spot at some point.

SIDETRACK (with apologies):

With all due respect to the "Jenkins Watch", I'm more focused on Rodriguez over the next few games available. 0-1 with 2R scored and 3BB and 1K is indicative of his career profile. I've just NEVER seen a CAREER profile like him before. Somewhat like Sano, he gets a lot of K's because he's almost TOO patient looking for a good pitch to hit. Thus not a great HIT profile where it's often debated he should swing earlier. But he also has an AMAZING .420 OB% for his MILB career that again, I'm not sure I've ever seen! His .488 SLG% and .908 OPS% are equally outstanding. His career 74% success rate on SB is very close to being worthwhile, but needs work.

He's also a legitimate CF defensively with an arm that's good enough for RF. His best position, down the road at least, might be LF with his speed and arm to cover Target Field and still backup CF as needed.

But what to make of his 3 outcome potential as a 23yo when 2026 begins?

His CEILING is a 30/30/30 year between Dbls, HR, and SB. 

A more reasonable ceiling is 30/25/25.

Both ceilings obviously have a little give and take.

But with his current approach...again, I've just never seen a profile like his...if he could continue to play good defense, provide some speed on the basepaths...and only HIT in the .220-.230 range and lower his incredible OB% to around .330-.340 and crank 30+ Dbls and 20+ HR and steal a consistent 18-22 bases, he becomes a difference maker.

He's got 2 options left, I believe, and is a couple years younger than Jenkins, and should end the season with more AAA PA. 

I'd almost be more inclined to focus on HIM beginning 2026 in the Twins OF for everything stated here. That's why I'm actually watching him more than Jenkins right now.

AA:

Mendez has another good game and even cranked one of the fence. I love that he's going to the AFL. He might get a chance to play some 1B there. If he can tweak his approach to get more lift in his batted balls, he might be a LH Gonzalez. The size and natural power seem to be there.

Rosario keeps coming through.

Has Bowen moved to the pen permanently? Or is this a temporary IP situation? His best opportunity for a ML staff might be in the pen. Whitaker, Parades...and Hoopes who only recently got promoted to AA...have had outstanding seasons as bullpen options. We might actually have a handful of RELIEVERS...not just SP converts...that might be fast tracking to the ML level.

Wichita just REFUSES to quit on their playoff chances. But I'm worried it might be too little too late.

A:

Really disappointing and unexpected start by Bohorquez. Can't help but wonder what might have been the remainder of his appearances if a 3rd out came from somewhere.

Houston came through with a really good game.

Tremendous game from Urbina. Good for him! But he, J Rodriguez, and Mercedes are a handful of international signings that have really disappointed the last couple of years. 

But a great TEAM WIN and on to the finals!

 MLB pitchers are going to chew Rodriguez up and spit him out. They will be able through strikes and more consistently hit their spots. Rodriguez does not hit well enough in the strike zone which is fine for AAA where he can get a bunch of walks but that will NOT translate to the BIGs 

Always appreciate all of the comments and views given by a bunch of people here on Twins Daily. I am very curious though whether people are watching the games, viewing a few highlights, or merely looking over box scores. I look over box scores as a habit I started in the late 1950s. Video wasn't an option and it has only been recently where we can watch the actual games via milb.com. My sense is that watching someone play several dozen to a hundred times gives one a better range of a player's skills, plus or minus, than looking at highlights or a box score or various analytics. This is merely my thinking and others may disagree.

Marek Houston has not impressed me yet, either in the field or at the plate. By comparison the change in all things baseball related with Gabriel Gonzalez are plus, plus as far as improvement. The growth of Walker Jenkins jumps off the page, again, in all phases of the game. He looks like the best Twins prospect since Joe Mauer (no, I don't expect him to be as good as Mauer).

The book is still wide open on Emmanuel Rodriguez. Erod runs the bases aggressively and is an asset in the field. Just that makes any comparisons overall to Julien not valid. That said, Erod does have a hole that MLB pitchers could exploit. The unknown is whether Rodriguez can stay healthy. All of his injuries seem unrelated, but he misses way too much time to count on him. The big "if" is health which then allows Erod to swing the bat unimpeded by fear of aggravating some owie. I believe Emmanuel can be really good. My thought is whether another team covets his potential in a fashion where the Twins benefit from a prospect for prospect trade. Those of us who saw Erod hit when fully healthy and in the groove (meaning not recently returned from injury or promotion due to rehab) know he has a hit tool. He needs to be in the lineup for months in a row though to prove himself. The fits and starts and constant readjustment back to playing have dulled his value and those who feel he can be easily abused by MLB pitchers could be correct if Erod cannot work consistently on addressing his weaknesses because he is just trying to be healthy. Can ER be a major piece of the Twins future (2026) or his he best used to address an area of weakness by seeking a trade partner? There should be some teams interested in swapping prospects in that gray area of top prospects (#25-75).

14 hours ago, Dman said:

Congrats to the Kernal's!!  Always seems hard for the first half winner to come out on top in these second half matchups as a lot of the guys that got them there moved up a level or levels.  It's tough to win a championship.  Would be nice to see them get another one.

They seem to have a talented roster, but so do the Saints.

Jenkins is finding out AAA pitching is not AA pitching.

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Jenkins is finding out AAA pitching is not AA pitching.

Are you watching the games? Your statement above suggests a "No" answer. Not all outs are the same. 0-4 with all balls hit on the nose, all well above 100 mph, is not the same as an 0-4 with four dribblers back to the mound. 

Something noteworthy is that I have not seen Jenkins challenge a call yet. Certainly he may have and I just missed it.  I have seen most of his AAA plate appearances. There have been double digit occasions for him to challenge. My guess is he doesn't want to lean on a practice that may not be available in MLB, but that is just a guess.

For those who have not seen Walker Jenkins play .... he is the real deal. While I have been high and hopeful for a number of guys going through the minor leagues, I can't remember being so confident of any other prospect as I am of Jenkins. 

Try to watch a few Saints games.

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Something noteworthy is that I have not seen Jenkins challenge a call yet.

Jenkins challenged a strike tonight and the call was overturned. He has a hard hit single but several outs. St. Paul looks dejected after Prielipp, who looked great for 2 innings, gave up a grand slam in the fourth frame.