TD Midseason Top Prospects: #10 Alex Meyer

Seems like single inning set-up reliever should be Meyer's first job in the majors. I don't mind that they are giving him extended relief innings in AAA. Forces him to use all of his pitches. There shouldn't be any transition problems between long relief in AAA and short relief in the majors.

Still needs to get his BB rate down.

I'm in favor of keeping him in the pen for a while. Possibly for the rest of the year if it involves being in the Twins bullpen.

Well, in 6 games as a reliever, 10.2 innings:  15K's.  YEA!! 

Oh, and 7 hits, 6 BB's.  Err, not, um, good.

He obviously needs more time to work on his motion/pitches, clear his head, or generally get his fecal material in a stable configuration. 

We know the reason why management moved him to the bullpen and it has nothing to so with making him into a reliever.  It's an attempt to easy some of the self inflicted pressure.  I think it would be an enormous mistake to plan on his role with the Twins as anything other than a starter.

Johan Santana pitched in 30 games (5 starts) in 2000. He gave up 102 hits in 86 innings, while walking batters to a tune of 5.7/9 innings pitched, and managed an awful 6.49 ERA. Over the course of the next four years he split time between fill-in starts when needed due to injury, and bullpen work. In 2003, his last year before becoming a full-time starter (and winning a CY Young award) He had worked his numbers down to 127 hits in 156 innings, a 3.07 ERA, and 2.7 BB/9. We all know what happened after that. Santana was 21 years old in 2000 when he came up with the twins, and they stuck with him through his struggles and let him figure it out in the bullpen. Meyer is now 25 years old...I say bring him up before we waste any more years of his potential. It took Santana four years of pitching at the big league level to figure it out. His last effective year was his age 31 season. If we are comparing apples with apples, and Meyer follows the path of Santana (not saying they are the same pitcher, but their numbers and styles look similar to me) than as we stand right now, Meyer will be 29 by the time he fully hits his stride, with just 3 effective years in front of him. I say call him up, and don't waste anymore time. And in the mean-time we have an option in our bullpen besides Perk who can actually strike someone out!

The model for Meyer should match the great job the Twins did managing J.R. Graham. They began by using him in low-leverage situations, then very gradually upped the ante. Now Graham is much more confident, and he's pitching great.

In Graham's case it was about coming off an injury, where Meyer is still honing his mechanics to reduce walks. The same careful, gradual approach should work for Meyer, always with the proviso that they can back off and give him a break from the pressure.

The Twins stuck with Santana in 2000 mainly because he was a Rule 5 guy and they wanted to keep him.  If they could have optioned him, I'm sure they would have.

 

I didn't go back and review the numbers, but there's not much in common style-wise.  Meyer is 6'9" (vs. 6'0"), is right-handed, throws much harder than Santana did, and has a slider as his #2 pitch.  (Santana had possibly the best change-up of all time, although I'm not sure if he learned it before or after 2000.)

 

It's not a very good comp.

 

That said, the long-relief role can be useful for pitchers of different styles, and it can be used effectively as an evaluation tool and, hopefully, as a springboard to bigger things.

Just to clarify, I wasn't trying to compare styles. I was more trying to compare numbers and minor league/early career success levels. 

Here are some of their minor league numbers...Meyer's are to date including the rough start to this year. Santana left/Meyer right.

68 games, 60 starts/82 games, 76 starts

350.2 IP/387.2 IP

350 hits/338 hits

357 strikeouts/448 strikeouts

3.4 BB per 9 IP/4.0 BB per 9 IP

4.70 ERA/3.48 ERA

1.372 WHIP/1.313 WHIP

Those are just a couple. We see that Meyer has actually had a significantly higher level of success in the minors than Santana did. Probably why Santana ended up being a rule 5 pick. However, my point was, I think its far too early to count Meyer out, and in fact its time for him to have a shot out of Minnesota's bullpen. And every MN fan knows that those bullpen numbers that he's posted over the past couple weeks, even if they doubled would be welcomed in the big league pen as he continues to develop. And to reiterate my point further using the Santana example, by putting him in the pen does not necessarily destine him to a career long reliever. 

The Twins stuck with Santana in 2000 mainly because he was a Rule 5 guy and they wanted to keep him.  If they could have optioned him, I'm sure they would have.

 

I didn't go back and review the numbers, but there's not much in common style-wise.  Meyer is 6'9" (vs. 6'0"), is right-handed, throws much harder than Santana did, and has a slider as his #2 pitch.  (Santana had possibly the best change-up of all time, although I'm not sure if he learned it before or after 2000.)

 

It's not a very good comp.

 

That said, the long-relief role can be useful for pitchers of different styles, and it can be used effectively as an evaluation tool and, hopefully, as a springboard to bigger things.

Also, Santana did not develop his devastating change up until 2002 when the twins sent him down to the minors to work on it. 

I would straight up swap him for Duensing today.  I know that leaves Thompson as the only lefty out of the pen but I would rather have Meyer in there getting major league reps.  Let him finish the season in the pen and give him a spot start if needed and then one more shot next year to start.  If that doesn't work, you got a hard throwing bullpen arm.

To me getting him in the MLB bullpen is a win-win-win. (But it shouldn't be decisive of his future role beyond this year.) The rotation depth is there for this year, that Meyer shouldn't be needed as a starter for the big club.

Win #1 - It allows Meyer to get experience getting big league hitters out. I'm in favor of starting out in lower leverage opportunities and hopefully easing him into higher leverage situations.

Win #2 - It allows Meyer to work more closely with Neil Allen.

Win #3 - It infuses more talent into the bullpen.

Would be kind of unorthodox having both Alex Meyer and Tyler Jay as key members of your major league pen this year, only to return to the minors next year to continue their starting careers.

But I like it!