How the 2018 Twins Draft Looks One Year Later

Joe A. Preusser · May 30, 2019

Seems to be a discrepency between Jeffers stat line and the posted .770 OPS. Awesome write-up, Thank You.

dbminn · May 30, 2019

Seems to be a discrepency between Jeffers stat line and the posted .770 OPS. Awesome write-up, Thank You.

I think Andrew's stat lines include both 2018 and 2019.

Seth Stohs · May 30, 2019

Stats of guys drafted and making their pro debuts are pretty meaningful. I mention that as it relates especially to guys like Charles Mack or Willie Joe Garry. They don't play regularly and are making a lot of adjustments. I'm excited about both of them. Laron Smith signed late (like Mack) and as a catcher (and one of 4+ catchers in the GCL), he would play a half game ever 2nd or 3rd day, maybe get an at bat or two with each.

Worrying about high school hitters struggles in the GCL is like worrying about college pitchers who pitch in the GCL.

Seth Stohs · May 30, 2019

Some other notes:

Kody Funderburk is now with Cedar Rapids. He just crossed the parking lot in Ft. Myers once to help the Miracle.

Seth Pinkerton tore his ACL after last season and had surgery. He hopes to pitch this year.

Regi Grace wasn't actually hurt. They just shut him down for a couple of weeks and worked on some other stuff ,and then he made a couple more appearances late.

Jon Olsen is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, which he had while still at UCLA.

Chris Williams played on 1B last year in E-Town while still recovering from shoulder surgery. That's where he played for the most part with CR to start this season, but he has been doing more catching since Banuelos moved up to FM.

Casanova being in Extended Spring Training is crazy. Dude can hit!

Schulfer appears to now be in the Kernels rotation.

Blank has been in Ft. Myers in Extended Spring Training. Like several others, he has gone across the parking lot to the Miracle a couple of times. He did have a short stint with the Kernels. Elizabethton's season starts in late June.

Likewise, Albee Weiss spent all of the spring in EST until he was promoted to CR when Gabe Snyder went on the inactive list for 3 days. Weiss went back to Extended Spring Training and is temporarily with the Miracle for a couple of games before he'll go back to Extended Spring Training. Also, Hunter Lee spent a few weeks with the Kernels, but he was sent back to Extended Spring Training last week. Tonight he played for the Miracle, but like Weiss, it'll be temporary.

ashbury · May 30, 2019

I suppose there is no excuse for the Miracle to ever be caught short a man or two on their roster.

Seth Stohs · May 30, 2019

I suppose there is no excuse for the Miracle to ever be caught short a man or two on their roster.

The are frequently bringing guys over from EST... When there aren't guys pushing to be promoted from CR to FM, it's a good option to just bring them over. It's a nice incentive for the guys playing well in Extended Spring Training too.

MN_ExPat · May 30, 2019

Great write up Andrew. It's always fun hearing about these guys and everything they go through. They truly deserve more credit and appreciation than they often get.

Han Joelo · May 30, 2019

Seems like a lot of late round guys are making solid contributions, as I have seen many other their names mentioned in the daily reports. Good stuff, thanks.

rdehring · May 30, 2019

Thanks for the update. I believe that if a team gets 3 players out of each draft who eventually contribute to the major league team, it was a good draft. Especially if one becomes a regular.

You never know where these guys are going to end up, however, looks to me there is a good chance at least three will play for the Twins some day and Larnach looks to be a real good player.

Dman · May 30, 2019

That Jeffer's pick I didn't like last year seems to be paying off for the Twins. His numbers haven't been too far off of Larnach's this year and he was taken in the second round and plays the valuable catcher position.

A bit disappointed in Keirsey and Helman this spring but it has been a down spring for a lot of our prospects. There is still time for these guys to adjust especially the high schoolers but this draft appears weaker than the last couple of years.

Seth Stohs · May 30, 2019

I think people forget how tough the Florida State League is for most hitters. Helman isn't quite the hitters that Larnach and Jeffers are so he's struggled a bit (though that's been caused by a couple of long rough patches... started the season 1-25, and just recently had a 1-31)... But he is holding his own there for the most part. I do think context is important in all of this. Helman putting up a .188 average is more impressive than if he were hitting .300 at Cedar Rapids (depending on the stuff we can't see in stat lines).

jmlease1 · May 30, 2019

You can never have too many catchers who can hit. Twins have shown the advantage of having three catchers on the roster this year, so making sure we have more catchers in the pipeline is excellent, especially since we're seeing guys with success.

draft looks solid so far, long way to go on a lot of these guys. Hopefully none of the top picks bust, few have to give it up from injury, and we have 1 or 2 late round guys rise up and become serious prospects.

TouchEmAllGuy · May 30, 2019

Thanks for the write-up. Solid contributions for a bunch of our prospects.

bird · May 30, 2019

Looking at reports like this always reminds me of how very long the odds are for almost all of these prospects.

In our current starting lineup, 3 of 4 domestic players were first-rounders: Buxton (1st overall), Castro (10th), and Cron (17th). Rosario was considered the best hitting prospect in Puerto Rico, a 4th rounder. Backup Garver may be the most improbable as a 9th rounder, but even he was regarded as I think the second best collegiate catcher in the draft. In other words, none of these guys really came out of nowhere to make their mark.

(The above fact points to how important it is for organizations to scout and acquire IFA talent, right? We rely on Kepler, Polanco, Sano, and pick-ups Cruz, Schoop, and Marwin.)

That's why even TWO "success stories" after the second round in any draft sets a team apart. For example, Taylor Rogers was the 340th guy taken in the draft, and of the roughly 300 of those selected after the first round or so, he's one of I think 6 guys playing in the big leagues. That's beating the odds!

Trevor Hildenberger and Tyler Duffey may never become core players, but they're already success stories in a relative sense.

Edited May 30, 2019 by birdwatcher

mikelink45 · May 30, 2019

If you were to rank these players now - would the order they were drafted change? Who are the real risers and sinkers?

bird · May 30, 2019

If you were to rank these players now - would the order they were drafted change? Who are the real risers and sinkers?

My personal assessment is that not much would change until after next year, and then things would be much more predictable in the third year. I base that view in large part on what the pundits' tendencies are.

For example, only about 15% of anyone's league-wide Top 100 list is comprised of prospects from the 2018 draft class. That's predictably prospects picked in the first half of the first round. Over half the prospects on such a list are in their 2nd and 3rd year. Why? Because the opinions shift from being pedigree-based to performance-based. So the new guys have to kick non-performing older prospects off the island, so a Nick Gordon gets the boot. It's a bell curve. By year 4, those previous 2 and 3 year guys make up less than 40% as opposed to over 50% the previous year.

Performance eventually becomes evident (barring injuries) and drives people's opinions much more than pedigree. That's what makes it fun to watch, because guys kind of crash onto the scene like Kirilloff did.

Maybe Wander Javier is next? Balazovic is on the cusp in year 2. But from this list, I wouldn't count on anyone other than Larnach cracking anyone's Top 100, and for good reason. Guessing which, if any, of these later round guys might make it is fun.

The Twins Daily Top Prospect lists are more optimistic than I am, but I love the enthusiasm for guys like Grace, Sands, Kiersey, etc.

Edited May 30, 2019 by birdwatcher

Otto von Ballpark · May 31, 2019

I think people forget how tough the Florida State League is for most hitters. Helman isn't quite the hitters that Larnach and Jeffers are so he's struggled a bit (though that's been caused by a couple of long rough patches... started the season 1-25, and just recently had a 1-31)... But he is holding his own there for the most part. I do think context is important in all of this. Helman putting up a .188 average is more impressive than if he were hitting .300 at Cedar Rapids (depending on the stuff we can't see in stat lines).

I am usually the guy that mentions the FSL hitting environment, but I think this is taking it quite a bit too far. Helman has a 47 wRC+ there right now, he's not really holding his own. (And you can't just throw out a nonconsecutive one-third of his at bats when making that determination.)

And the FSL batting average is exactly the same as that of the Midwest League (.241), so no, .188 in Ft Myers is not more impressive than .300 in Cedar Rapids, and it's not particularly close.

The only encouraging thing about Helman is that his struggles are not related to his K rate. He's generally making contact -- he just needs to make better contact, it appears.

Seth Stohs · May 31, 2019

And the FSL batting average is exactly the same as that of the Midwest League (.241), so no, .188 in Ft Myers is not more impressive than .300 in Cedar Rapids, and it's not particularly close.

I'm saying that if Helman was in the MWL, he would be facing Low A pitchers versus facing High A pitchers. Generally speaking, the higher the level of play, the better the pitching.

Otto von Ballpark · May 31, 2019

Trevor Hildenberger and Tyler Duffey may never become core players, but they're already success stories in a relative sense.

Relative to other draftees more than to other teams at that point, I would think. I'd guess most MLB franchises occasionally get these levels of contributions (Hildenberger and Duffey, to date) from these levels of picks.

The rest of your post is spot-on, though -- what sets teams apart is the plus performers. (Although hopefully both Hildenberger and Duffey can still contribute more and move into that category!)

Otto von Ballpark · May 31, 2019

I'm saying that if Helman was in the MWL, he would be facing Low A pitchers versus facing High A pitchers. Generally speaking, the higher the level of play, the better the pitching.

You think the difference in pitching quality alone between A and A+ is greater than .112 worth of batting average? That seems... a little steep.

A guy whose average drops by that much between those levels is far more likely to get cut (or at least held back) than promoted, so how is that level of performance "more impressive" for a player? Especially .300 to .188 -- the latter is dangerously close to the lower bound of pro player performance (think pitchers hitting) -- many minor leaguers could bat at least .100 in MLB right now.

I guess, from the Twins perspective, it may be more useful to let Helman hit .188 at A+ now than have him repeat A and hit .300. But that doesn't mean .188 is more impressive or anything.

Seth Stohs · May 31, 2019

You think the difference in pitching quality alone between A and A+ is greater than .112 worth of batting average? That seems... a little steep.

A guy whose average drops by that much between those levels is far more likely to get cut (or at least held back) than promoted, so how is that level of performance "more impressive" for a player? Especially .300 to .188 -- the latter is dangerously close to the lower bound of pro player performance (think pitchers hitting) -- many minor leaguers could bat at least .100 in MLB right now.

I guess, from the Twins perspective, it may be more useful to let Helman hit .188 at A+ now than have him repeat A and hit .300. But that doesn't mean .188 is more impressive or anything.

I mean, Helman hit .355 in 27 games in Cedar Rapids last year. Yes, I think he could be hitting .300 if he was in the Midwest League if he was there this year.

As for what's useful, I don't know. Says a lot about what they think about Helman's make up.

bird · May 31, 2019

Relative to other draftees more than to other teams at that point, I would think. I'd guess most MLB franchises occasionally get these levels of contributions (Hildenberger and Duffey, to date) from these levels of picks.

The rest of your post is spot-on, though -- what sets teams apart is the plus performers. (Although hopefully both Hildenberger and Duffey can still contribute more and move into that category!)

Yeah, I'm talking about ANY player from ANY team drafted in the 5th (Duffey), 11th (Rogers) and 22nd (Hildenberger) rounds. The ones that ever get a W2 from the big club for even a week are in rare company.

The Twins are far from unique in producing them, but they select and develop their fair share I think. I'm excited to think that process might improve now that the development side is getting much needed attention. We'll see.

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