Would the Twins Be Better Off Trading Royce Lewis?

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

The positional move from SS to 3B to 1B. It's $16MM of value for a full season. The "nobody plays nowhere" positional philosophy of this front office kills player value.

He was terrible, so they sent him down and he lost his job.  Him switching to 1B was the only path for him on the MLB team, because of his poor performance. 

The Twins gave him every opportunity to be the franchise SS for the next decade.  When he refused to play 2B last year they said, ok, fine, never mind.  When he failed at SS anyway, they gave him every opportunity to to be franchise 3B for the next decade.  He failed at that too. 

I'm as down on the Twins organization as ever before.  But Royce Lewis' poor performance for going on 2 years now is what killed his value.  

11 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

You have made a lot of assumptions about Royce and what he is thinking and feeling.  Personally I see a player that is engaged with his teammates and seems genuinely happy when they do well.  Does he speak too much, yes, but if he gave the cliche answers we are all used to, he would be roasted for that as well.

Lewis has let a lot of his frustrations out through interviews and indirect channels.    This isn't assumptions.   Those in the media have routinely hinted to Lewis dissatisfaction with the Twins and hinted he wanted to be traded with everyone else least year.    He wasn't happy when he was demoted he seems to be doing better now per se,  but if the Twins were to get a decent offer he is shipped.  Right now I have him as the 2nd most likely and he could the #1 most likely if I would know if the Twins are considering on giving Jeffers the qualifying offer or not.   

Lewis and Wallner definitely need a different environment.  I would for sure try to move Lewis just to clear a spot although his trade value is a low level minor league player, 25+th on their prospect list. 

Wallner is the first player I would bring up in September and just put him in the lineup on a platoon basis as the LF, RF, and DH.  One thing I am surprised at in his 8 years in the Twins organization is that according to the baseball reference he has never played an inning at 1B.

The September call up will be the critical junction of Matt's career.    Repeat the performance from the beginning of 2026 then the writing is on the wall and he should be waived in the offseason.   A solid September performance might buy some more time on the Twins 40 man roster, but we have seen the flashes before and perhaps a minor league deal would be the right move for both Wallner and the Twins.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

SS not hitting is different than 1B not hitting, but maybe you disagree.

Do those positions have different defensive responsibilities?

You seem to be saying the Twins could stick Matt Wallner at SS and suddenly his value would skyrocket.  You also seem to be saying Royce Lewis is an MLB-caliber starting SS, yet for some reason the Twins are wasting him away at 1B in order to find at bats for the Tristan Grays and Ryan Kreidlers of the world.  Interesting conspiracy but...why?  

I just don't think Royce Lewis is as good as you want him to be.  We all had fun watching him hit those 2 homers in the 2023 play-in series.  He's played a lot of baseball since then and unfortunately for everyone involved, almost all of it has been bad.  

Would the Giants be interested in him at all?  Would they do a Lewis for Arraez straight up?    

-  I am starting to come up with a reasonable direction for moving forward

1.  Arraez for Lewis - move Clemens back to 1st - the production on the right side is improved.  Its a short term gain but at this point I don't think Lewis is in the long term plans. This move alone would be looked on positively by fans and would give cover to the front office for getting rid of Lewis.   

2. Jeffers and prospect for Hancock.  Utilize Caratini and Jackson as the catchers.  

3.  Trade for another leverage reliever and call it day.    

Hold on to Ryan unless you get a crazy offer.   The offense is flat in my opinion but you are gaining one of the best contact hitters that can work a count.   Starting pitching is improved.   Bullpen is improved and you didn't have to give up much prospect capital to do it.    I think all in all most would be ok with this outcome.   

8 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

Lewis and Wallner definitely need a different environment.  I would for sure try to move Lewis just to clear a spot although his trade value is a low level minor league player, 25+th on their prospect list. 

Wallner is the first player I would bring up in September and just put him in the lineup on a platoon basis as the LF, RF, and DH.  One thing I am surprised at in his 8 years in the Twins organization is that according to the baseball reference he has never played an inning at 1B.

The September call up will be the critical junction of Matt's career.    Repeat the performance from the beginning of 2026 then the writing is on the wall and he should be waived in the offseason.   A solid September performance might buy some more time on the Twins 40 man roster, but we have seen the flashes before and perhaps a minor league deal would be the right move for both Wallner and the Twins.

You are only going to call up 1 position player in September, I am not sure I am going to used limited moves on Wallner.  As you said he needs a new environment and he should be traded now even if it is for a bucket of ball.  It feels as if they have already moved on from him.

Just now, HarmonK03 said:

You are only going to call up 1 position player in September, I am not sure I am going to used limited moves on Wallner.  As you said he needs a new environment and he should be traded now even if it is for a bucket of ball.  It feels as if they have already moved on from him.

I don't recall saying I would call up just one position player.   Read what I wrote again.

And, yeah, I am going to call him up.  He can get a lot of PAs playing the outfield and DHing without impacting anyone, especially if we traded Bell and Larnach.  I could even see him playing some 1B.   It is a no risk move that would only have upside to it.  If he fails, he is released in the offseason.  If he plays well, like he has sporadically in the past, then he might have some value to the Twins or another team in a minor offseason deal.  

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Would the Giants be interested in him at all?  Would they do a Lewis for Arraez straight up?    

-  I am starting to come up with a reasonable direction for moving forward

1.  Arraez for Lewis - move Clemens back to 1st - the production on the right side is improved.  Its a short term gain but at this point I don't think Lewis is in the long term plans. This move alone would be looked on positively by fans and would give cover to the front office for getting rid of Lewis.   

2. Jeffers and prospect for Hancock.  Utilize Caratini and Jackson as the catchers.  

3.  Trade for another leverage reliever and call it day.    

Hold on to Ryan unless you get a crazy offer.   The offense is flat in my opinion but you are gaining one of the best contact hitters that can work a count.   Starting pitching is improved.   Bullpen is improved and you didn't have to give up much prospect capital to do it.    I think all in all most would be ok with this outcome.   

This is a good post, which I largely agree with.

But I don't think Lewis gets you Arreaz. SF needs a lot of stuff, but Matt Chapman is going nowhere at 3B until after 2030 and at 1B they have Devers' contract thru 2033 with young Eldridge wedged behind him.  With all due respect for Lewis' breakout potential, SF is a bad trade partner for him.

1 minute ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Would the Giants be interested in him at all?  Would they do a Lewis for Arraez straight up?    

-  I am starting to come up with a reasonable direction for moving forward

1.  Arraez for Lewis - move Clemens back to 1st - the production on the right side is improved.  Its a short term gain but at this point I don't think Lewis is in the long term plans. This move alone would be looked on positively by fans and would give cover to the front office for getting rid of Lewis.   

2. Jeffers and prospect for Hancock.  Utilize Caratini and Jackson as the catchers.  

3.  Trade for another leverage reliever and call it day.    

Hold on to Ryan unless you get a crazy offer.   The offense is flat in my opinion but you are gaining one of the best contact hitters that can work a count.   Starting pitching is improved.   Bullpen is improved and you didn't have to give up much prospect capital to do it.    I think all in all most would be ok with this outcome.   

And this will get us to what, 81 wins?  The moves by themselves are not necessarily bad moves.  What helps us for this year and the future.  I would love to see moves that move us beyond being a .500 team or on a pathway that potentially gets us there.

8 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

I don't recall saying I would call up just one position player.   Read what I wrote again.

And, yeah, I am going to call him up.  He can get a lot of PAs playing the outfield and DHing without impacting anyone, especially if we traded Bell and Larnach.  I could even see him playing some 1B.   It is a no risk move that would only have upside to it.  If he fails, he is released in the offseason.  If he plays well, like he has sporadically in the past, then he might have some value to the Twins or another team in a minor offseason deal.  

 

The rosters only expand to 28 in September, that means 1 pitcher and 1 position player as there are still limits on number of pitchers you can carry.  He is not moving to 1B if they haven't done it by now, it's not going to happen at least with the Twins.  They are giving time there to Gabby and Mendez in St. Paul, not Wallner.  That tells you everything you know about that possibility.

2 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

And this will get us to what, 81 wins?  The moves by themselves are not necessarily bad moves.  What helps us for this year and the future.  I would love to see moves that move us beyond being a .500 team or on a pathway that potentially gets us there.

Gets long term pitcher and gives you a chip and a chair for the playoffs which most seem to want. They want z ton to go for it because he said go big or go home. The rest of his actions haven’t matched the statement. 

Insane timing for this article. Just last night I commented that its time for Royce to be traded. Hes just not getting it done. His OPS the last 30 days is only .671. His defense is probably OK if hes mashing but he just isn't. Its been 3 years. Change of scenery IMO. 

A .671 OPS and maybe average defense at 1B is not how this team will win anything in the playoffs. 

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Would the Giants be interested in him at all?  Would they do a Lewis for Arraez straight up?    

-  I am starting to come up with a reasonable direction for moving forward

1.  Arraez for Lewis - move Clemens back to 1st - the production on the right side is improved.  Its a short term gain but at this point I don't think Lewis is in the long term plans. This move alone would be looked on positively by fans and would give cover to the front office for getting rid of Lewis.   

2. Jeffers and prospect for Hancock.  Utilize Caratini and Jackson as the catchers.  

3.  Trade for another leverage reliever and call it day.    

Hold on to Ryan unless you get a crazy offer.   The offense is flat in my opinion but you are gaining one of the best contact hitters that can work a count.   Starting pitching is improved.   Bullpen is improved and you didn't have to give up much prospect capital to do it.    I think all in all most would be ok with this outcome.   

Nice and fun little thought experiment, but the first question is why on earth would the Giants trade a real trade chip for Royce Lewis? 

8 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Nice and fun little thought experiment, but the first question is why on earth would the Giants trade a real trade chip for Royce Lewis? 

 

No different than us taking on Bradley last year. They think a change in environment could allow for more value to be unlocked. They likely aren’t a good fit as has been mentioned before. A 3 way trade could be possible. 

Just now, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

No different than us taking on Bradley last year. They think a change in environment could allow for more value to be unlocked. They likely aren’t a good fit as has been mentioned before. A 3 way trade could be possible. 

Not really. It's very different. Taj was 24 years old. If he was pitching in AAA he'd have been a top 50 prospect. Instead he was struggling in the majors, but still had a career ~3.90 xFIP over 300+ innings. He was still a player with promise. 

Royce Lewis is in his "prime" and is settling into being a 670 OPS guy with middling ancillary tools. His biggest asset for any team is that he still has an option year, but not exactly a thrilling idea for someone that's going to make a real salary in arbitration next year. Even at a reasonable $4 million, that's 5x the minimum, which is what a team would prefer to pay for someone of his caliber. 

If you want to trade him, it's going to be for another reclamation project or mediocre bullpen piece. Like someone from my other team, someone like Brett Baty?

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

Not really. It's very different. Taj was 24 years old. If he was pitching in AAA he'd have been a top 50 prospect. Instead he was struggling in the majors, but still had a career ~3.90 xFIP over 300+ innings. He was still a player with promise. 

Royce Lewis is in his "prime" and is settling into being a 670 OPS guy with middling ancillary tools. His biggest asset for any team is that he still has an option year, but not exactly a thrilling idea for someone that's going to make a real salary in arbitration next year. Even at a reasonable $4 million, that's 5x the minimum, which is what a team would prefer to pay for someone of his caliber. 

If you want to trade him, it's going to be for another reclamation project or mediocre bullpen piece. Like someone from my other team, someone like Brett Baty?

Let’s discuss Taj Bradley - his first taste of MLB went really well, 2 years later everything under the hood was declining drastically. The fastball was down to 93 mph - they were having difficulty getting him to adjust. He had multiple outings where gave up 6 plus runs.  They sent him down to AAA, Tampa saw nothing they could do to get him back on track so they traded 4 years of control for a highly considered reliever with 2 years of control. 
 

Lewis - had a really good start to mlb career. Defensive and offensive stats have continued to decline. He still shows flashes but everything under the hood is not good. The twins have struggled to get him to adjust and sent him down to AAA to try a reboot. He has 3 years of control remaining. 
 

Other than age and Taj still had more perceived value what is the difference?

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Let’s discuss Taj Bradley - his first taste of MLB went really well, 2 years later everything under the hood was declining drastically. The fastball was down to 93 mph - they were having difficulty getting him to adjust. He had multiple outings where gave up 6 plus runs.  They sent him down to AAA, Tampa saw nothing they could do to get him back on track so they traded 4 years of control for a highly considered reliever with 2 years of control. 
 

Lewis - had a really good start to mlb career. Defensive and offensive stats have continued to decline. He still shows flashes but everything under the hood is not good. The twins have struggled to get him to adjust and sent him down to AAA to try a reboot. He has 3 years of control remaining. 
 

Other than age and Taj still had more perceived value what is the difference?

Even at Taj's declined shininess, he still had put up more fWAR in his last partial season with the Rays than Lewis has the last two seasons. 

fWAR is a bit wonky because it leans more on the expected run prevention statistics for pitchers instead of the actual results, but that's why he was still a valuable player. 

And I'll point out his FB velo with the Rays last year was 96.1, compared to his rookie season of 96.2, but his Stuff+ was in decline with a rise in contact rates, so there were legitimate concerns.

Griffin Jax was a very valuable player traded last year, which means Taj Bradley was a very valuable player. You might also be able to get a reliever with an additional year of control for Lewis, but that reliever will have a FIP of 4.15, not 2.65. 

When first acquired, Taj was quoted as saying things like "I never read scouting reports" and the like. It was bizarre to say the least. But the Rays' org giving up on him was new, and the Twins more or less saying You're An Idiot and walking him through some scouting reports and showing him how that info could inform his pitch selections got him to try new things. He'd shown flashes but never the full potential, so there was clear room to grow and specific things to teach.

Royce has had great stretches of play, but also some long droughts. He's taken advice, has been sent out and adjusted and changed coaches and yet he cannot stay productive for long without pooping out.  He's shown his peak and then repeatedly retreated from it. And he's older at an age where the extra years show up in maturity rather than simple skills development.

Lewis has enough of a track record where an exec either sees untapped potential or a 27 year old with a couple flashes of awesome. Bradley was the same, but younger with a lot less track record and fewer glimpses of the peak.  The Twins picked up Taj for a reliever and there's probably someone out there that'll toss a little something our way to take Royce.

1 minute ago, Cris E said:

The Twins picked up Taj for a reliever

Not just a reliever. One of the most effective relief pitchers in all of baseball at that time, with 2 more years of control. 

Plus, a reliever that many people, like myself, believed would be able to move back to the rotation and be effective there. 

Well sure, but there was no line of teams fighting to grab Bradley. The trade was people hoping to get Jax, not people hoping to get Taj,  When Tampa gives up on a pitcher the league usually respects that, especially given the track record of their trades at the deadline.

But the question asked was what's the difference between Bradley and Lewis, and the difference was that people still saw untapped potential in Taj and Royce has burned a bunch of his good will in stumbling thru months of mediocre hitting.  I hope there's still a market for him so we can trade him or I hope he takes advantage of the hole our org has at 1b and seizes the job.  But right now a reliever would be best case for any return, not even one nearly as good as Jax.

2 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

The rosters only expand to 28 in September, that means 1 pitcher and 1 position player as there are still limits on number of pitchers you can carry.  He is not moving to 1B if they haven't done it by now, it's not going to happen at least with the Twins.  They are giving time there to Gabby and Mendez in St. Paul, not Wallner.  That tells you everything you know about that possibility.

You are assuming a static roster.    I am assuming they trade off several players.   

I agree Lewis has now regressed to previous level of play. I don’t see the defensive flaws at 1B though. He looks good there in the games I’ve seen.
He still has options, so why wouldn’t the Twins use those options if it’s so urgent to get Royce out of the way instead of trading him for a bucket of balls? It looks like the Twins believe he can unlock more offense so they continue to play him. I think if they trade Jeffers for actual help, then Lewis is sure to keep playing. If they go out and get a 2nd baseman to move Clemons to 1st, then demote Lewis again. If they promote Culpepper, then demote Lewis. At this point, no one cares what Lewis thinks about it, so do what’s best for the team. 

4 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

You are assuming a static roster.    I am assuming they trade off several players.   

Your original post said you were calling him up in September.  Even with trades that may happen, I think the Twins have moved on from him and I would not call him up if he's still here.

1 minute ago, HarmonK03 said:

Your original post said you were calling him up in September.  Even with trades that may happen, I think the Twins have moved on from him and I would not call him up if he's still here.

 

Well, then that is a mistake.   Calling up Wallner, a player who has hit major league pitching (just not consistently) can increase his value significantly in the offseason trade market with almost zero risk.  Perhaps he would instead be called up to replace a traded player like Bell or Larnach before September.

If he fails to hit, then just designate him for assignment and let him go.  I am sure he will want to go elsewhere to see if he can refind his swing outside the Twins system.   If he hits, perhaps he is someone you can swap wiht another team for a very similar player needing a new home.

Or, just waive him or bring him back again.  

1 minute ago, LyleCole said:

Well, then that is a mistake.   Calling up Wallner, a player who has hit major league pitching (just not consistently) can increase his value significantly in the offseason trade market with almost zero risk.  Perhaps he would instead be called up to replace a traded player like Bell or Larnach before September.

If he fails to hit, then just designate him for assignment and let him go.  I am sure he will want to go elsewhere to see if he can refind his swing outside the Twins system.   If he hits, perhaps he is someone you can swap wiht another team for a very similar player needing a new home.

Or, just waive him or bring him back again.  

We have 12 outfielders between St. Paul and Minneapolis, some need to go.  I like Wallner but at this point and at his age I think his best shot is with another organization.  Either give him away or release him at the end of the year.

I think his best value to us is in the future; if he turns into a masher at 1B, great.  If he remains as a cost-controlled 1B, 3B in a pinch, platoon whatever, that is still something.  Right now, he's not good (see Trevor Larnach last year and the howls to give him away; see, also, Matt Wallner this year and same howls).  A change of scenery might do him some good, but what does it do for us?

There are 3 types of players you look to trade; 1) those on expiring contracts who won't sign with us again; 2) players who are blocking the future (i.e., positions of strength); 3) players who will bring back a haul and fill in gaps that are more valuable than the existing player.

Royce is none of those things.  We are not going to be blown away by any offers for him and shouldn't give him up just for a middling RP.  Our infield isn't that deep right now.