What Happened To Joe Mauer?

Here's an article from 1/21/14 about last years training:

http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_24962055/minnesota-twins-joe-mauer-feeling-good-taking-it

"It varies every year," Mauer said of his offseason routine. "This year I wanted to start off the year making sure I got over this concussion and took the time. It's going pretty good heading into the year."

Mauer, who has been symptom-free since late October, typically doesn't do much hitting in the offseason in order to conserve energy for the long grind ahead.

"I haven't swung the bat yet," Mauer said. "Last year was different because of the (World Baseball Classic), but every year it's been later and later. I'll get to camp, and I think we'll have plenty of time to get ready for the season."

Love Mauer but don't believe he is vital to the Twins resurgence at this point, wonder if the Twins would be better off paying a decent portion of his salary to play somewhere else and stock up some more youth in return...?  Also, doubt his health issues suddenly disappear as he progresses through his 30's.

I just don't see an appetite, on our part or other teams to go through with this transaction.  With that, Mauer will be our 1B for the next four years and I think the closer he is to his career norm of an OPS of .860 versus last years .732 is a big story for turning around the Twins.

For example, we are all really hopeful of Sano over Plouffe at 3B.  I would bet the .128 difference between Mauer's career numbers and his 2014 is greater than the difference between Sano and 2014 Plouffe (.751 OPS). That puts Sano at .879 at a break-even.

Mauer is easily going to bounce back with a .315/.405/.430 line. The concussion was an issue. And he just had one of those years. Players come back all the time with years of success after bad years. 

Let's just hope it's Santana-Mauer-Arcia vs. righties and Santana-Mauer-Dozier vs. lefties. Mauer remains as an almost prototypical no. 2 batter.

Love Mauer but don't believe he is vital to the Twins resurgence at this point, wonder if the Twins would be better off paying a decent portion of his salary to play somewhere else and stock up some more youth in return...?  Also, doubt his health issues suddenly disappear as he progresses through his 30's.

He is the focal point for the resurgence of the Twins. He has 5 seasons of good productivity left, at least. He has consistently been an on base machine.

which affected his preparation for the season, like Morneau and his laundry list of ailments he had during the offseason prior to 2015 that didn't allow him to prepare properly.

I meant 2005.  I'm guessing everyone knew that, though

One interesting note is that during those 0-2 situations, the most frequent pitch was a fastball up in the zone. This differed from the other seasons. This might be a trend in baseball or something opponents have targeted. Either way, Mauer was not successful against those pitches.

Parker, I seem to remember (cough, cough memory/eye test) that Mauer would get pitched down and in the same situation.

Lots of theories in here.  Everyone seems to have one of Joe.  My eye test is that Joe seems to pull balls on the ground and go the other way more on line drives.  Seems like to me the shifts in the OF and INF took away hits from him. 

The data Parker supplied, balls getting through the right side of the infield and BA on line drives to the OF seem to support this.  If true, Joe would need to be a little less predictable. If we needed anyone on our team to make a hitting adjustment with the entire off-season to do it, I would pick Joe Mauer.

Mauer is as close to a mechanical hitting machine as plays the game. In theory, and likely in practice this makes a shift in the OF towards left, and in the infield middle right even more effective. Basically you can count on him to hit the ball consistently as pitched. I can't believe the endless well hit balls down the LF line that were caught did not impact his production. As for pulling the ball he never has been God at getting air under anything to the right side. It's just not his strong suit.

Mauer is as close to a mechanical hitting machine as plays the game. In theory, and likely in practice this makes a shift in the OF towards left, and in the infield middle right even more effective. Basically you can count on him to hit the ball consistently as pitched. I can't believe the endless well hit balls down the LF line that were caught did not impact his production. As for pulling the ball he never has been God at getting air under anything to the right side. It's just not his strong suit.

The only thing is, his BABIP last year was nearly identical to his career average (very good) which basically means his hits are falling in line with his career norms.

Pitchers really have no reason to pitch him middle in, or in at all, so like you said he hits the pitches where he's pitched, low and away pitches go opposite field.  It does seem like he has been trying to pull more though and when he does this on outside pitches, those are becoming outs.

Mauer is easily going to bounce back with a .315/.405/.430 line. The concussion was an issue. And he just had one of those years. Players come back all the time with years of success after bad years. 

 

Let's just hope it's Santana-Mauer-Arcia vs. righties and Santana-Mauer-Dozier vs. lefties. Mauer remains as an almost prototypical no. 2 batter.

I have never considered Mauer a 3 hitter. That's kind of odd since your 3 spot usually goes to your best hitter. But you also want more pop in that spot. That said, if my best alternative is Dozier, even in a platoon I would stick with Mauer. As much as I agree he is a true 2 spot hitter, I also have not been able to identify someone to take his 3 hole. Hmm, maybe that's why the Twins have lost over 360 games in the last 4 years?

Many factors are likely:  1) Defensive shifts;  LF and CF move substantially to their right.  Line drives/fly balls have very little space to fall in LF.  Most teams shift substantially to their left.  SS is virtually behind 2B.  Mauer has two favorite spots LF line 200 ft + in the air, and grounders right over the mound.  Those use to be hits, now they are outs.  2) Expanded K zone; self-explanatory what used to be balls are now strikes.  3) uppercut swing; high fastballs are rugged--reference Arcia and his K-rate around 33%.  Also makes off-speed low and away more effective.  4) Mauer used to have dependable protection (Morneau) behind him--opponents not impressed (yet) by hitter behind Mauer.

I have never considered Mauer a 3 hitter. That's kind of odd since your 3 spot usually goes to your best hitter. But you also want more pop in that spot. That said, if my best alternative is Dozier, even in a platoon I would stick with Mauer. As much as I agree he is a true 2 spot hitter, I also have not been able to identify someone to take his 3 hole. Hmm, maybe that's why the Twins have lost over 360 games in the last 4 years?

Well the 3 spot being the "best hitter" is just old adage gibberish now. The best three batters, overall, should be 1,2, and 4 with your 3 and 5 spots devoted to power guys.

I think Dozier there against lefties is pretty solid.

I'm intrigued that Joe swung at a whopping 9% of first pitches. I have allergies that prevent me from doing a lot of counting, and I admit it felt like a lower percentage. My question is, of the 91% of pitches he chose not to swing at, what percentage of those were called strikes?

The other question I have is, if he's not very good at getting air under the ball when he pulls it, why can't he get better at it? 

Well the 3 spot being the "best hitter" is just old adage gibberish now. The best three batters, overall, should be 1,2, and 4 with your 3 and 5 spots devoted to power guys.

I think Dozier there against lefties is pretty solid.

I'm intrigued that Joe swung at a whopping 9% of first pitches. I have allergies that prevent me from doing a lot of counting, and I admit it felt like a lower percentage. My question is, of the 91% of pitches he chose not to swing at, what percentage of those were called strikes?

 

The other question I have is, if he's not very good at getting air under the ball when he pulls it, why can't he get better at it?

 

I truly think Dozier's power is questionable. I just don't see him as being any kind of a consistent power guy. But I guess this season will answer that.

As for Mauer not getting the ball up towards right field, he never has. He is most comfortable hitting the ball deep in the zone, and when he try's to pull, or is forced to pull he seems to roll over on it. He might just be the reverse of most hitters. For him going the other way is natural, so pulling is just as difficult as another hitter going the other way.

In the past I think he could get through the zone faster and was able to spray some hits around when he was behind in the count.  But I really thought his bat speed looked slow last year and that was seriously hurting his ability to get around on pitches.

 

I remember reading an article last year about guys with slower bat speeds, and Joe was one of the main players mentioned. The article pointed out that his name was surprising because he was usually one of the faster bat speeds in the past.

I believe they used contact vs pitches above 95 mph as an example, and he was one of the worst. Too lazy to find this article though. Guessing we are watching a still great Joe Mauer, but in a decline.

The only thing is, his BABIP last year was nearly identical to his career average (very good) which basically means his hits are falling in line with his career norms.

 

Pitchers really have no reason to pitch him middle in, or in at all, so like you said he hits the pitches where he's pitched, low and away pitches go opposite field.  It does seem like he has been trying to pull more though and when he does this on outside pitches, those are becoming outs.

This.  Exactly this.   First half he seemed to be trying to pull and he seemed to be swinging harder.  That is not him.    The ideal for him is for pitchers to say here is our shift, go hit into it because that is where he likes it and he seems to square up a lot more in that spot.    Squaring up a higher % makes up for the fact that a higher % of those squared up are caught.   Net is going to be a .320 average and a .880 OPS.  Only contradiction I have is that pitchers do have a reason to pitch inside.   He just does not square enough of those pitches up to make them pay for it.  I think he does square when they pitch him middle out to make them pay for it regardless of the shift.   The worst of all worlds is what he was doing the first half which was trying to pull the outside pitches.   That has always been true of Morneau, Cuddyer, Plouffe ,etc as well.   Its just that this was the first year it seemed that Mauer fell into that habit as well.

He could try changing shampoos.

I think it's all about bat speed, which usually goes when players get older, and why you often see rapid declines in productivity.  It is exacerbated for Joe because he lets the ball get in so deep.  Once bat speed drops, you have to do one of 3 things to compensate: 1) guess; 2) start earlier; 3) switch to a lighter bat/ choke up.  Most players do a combo of 1 and 2 which is likely why changing speeds was so effective against Joe.  Poor pitch recognition is more often than not, poor bat speed which causes guessing or starting/committing too soon.  (Think Nishioka). Thus, the players that look like they have a problem with breaking balls, actually have trouble catching up to fastballs. (Think Delmon Young).  For the first time I can really remember, Joe looked totally fooled on many off-speed pitches, and simply couldn't catch up to heat.  That's a decline in bat speed.

My advice, swing a lighter stick.  You're not a power hitter anyway.  

He could try changing shampoos.

A lot of his problems started when he split up with Kemps. Maybe it was the cows after all?

Back spasms early in the season. Oblique injury early in July. It's no wonder Mauer had trouble pulling the ball. Mauer hit much better after he healed (125 WRC+ during the second half).  

Mauer had good seasons in 2012 and 2013. It's all a matter of health.

Back spasms early in the season. Oblique injury early in July. It's no wonder Mauer had trouble pulling the ball. Mauer hit much better after he healed (125 WRC+ during the second half).  

 

Mauer had good seasons in 2012 and 2013. It's all a matter of health.

I like the he wasn't fully healthy in the first half.  The switch to 1B would probably impact him the most right away. The first half/second half splits others have offered provide me with some optimism.