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Do you see why it is hard to convince average fans to buy into the validity of defensive metrics?
Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, whose defense has been considered an aspect of his game that doesn’t receive enough attention, doesn’t believe that those metrics -- good or bad -- tell the entire story of a player. “The big thing for me is that I know someone’s a good defensive player,” said the eye test advocate.
Dozier is not alone. Most inside the game will tell you that they can say whether or not a player can play defense based on observations. For Dozier, his main criticism of the defensive metrics is the plays that are not included in the numbers.
“As far as sabermetrics, it is mindboggling to me sometimes when I see that around the league when someone is the best fielder in the game and everyone knows he’s the best and he covers the most ground and always throws to the right bases,” Dozier said. “And some of those things don’t get factored into the sabermetrical stat that you are given at the end of the year.”
Although “sabermetrical” is a made-up word derived from another made-up word, Dozier is right -- there are things that players can do defensively that will not show up in the UZRs or plus/minuses and may not give an wholly accurate representation of a player’s defense. In Santana’s case, that includes the recent relay play on Monday in which he threw the Royals’ Salvador Perez out from shallow center field.
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Those intangible-type plays -- a play that Santana is able to convert because he is blessed with a legit GoldenEye N64 rocket launcher -- should be added to any discussion about his defensive capabilities. However when it comes to making the everyday plays a shortstop should make Santana has performed at a deficit this year. Revised zone rating, a metric based on video scouting that adds batted ball speed and trajectory, is straightforward in the sense that it categorizes if it was hit within a shortstop’s zone and whether or not the play was converted into an out. Simple. Thanks to his contact-oriented pitching staff, Santana has had 39 balls in his zone so far this year but he has only converted 27 (.692 RZR) into outs. That’s 25th of 30 shortstops.
The Twins want you to take that early season production with a grain because they are convinced he is talented enough to be an everyday major league shortstop.
“He can run, he can throw, he’s got range, he’s athletic, he can make the play in the hole,” Twins general manager Terry Ryan offered in regards to Santana’s ability to play shortstop. “It’s just a matter consistency, like a lot of our young players. He has all the tools to be a very quality-oriented shortstop.”
Quality has been lacking in the season’s opening month both with the glove and at the plate.
As Nick Nelson pointed out on Monday, part of that early season shakiness may be due to inexperience or rust from missing a year of development at the position. There may also be some issues on the field that he is carrying over from his at-bats.
After eyebrow-raising production in his first season at the plate, the early returns in his sophomore season have been disappointing. As a leadoff hitter who is expected to set the table for the heart of the order, Santana has failed to get on base at even a modest clip and he has not drawn a walk in 45 plate appearances. What’s more is that his zone comprehension, while lacking to begin with, has taken severe steps backward. According to Fangraphs.com, Santana’s 52.4% out-of-zone swinging% is the highest among all qualified hitters. As a top-of-the-order presence, he needs to be able to command that zone at a much better clip.
Does that poor performance with the bat get carried over to the field with him? It seems that he could be pressing in the infield. While blessed with the strong arm, he has also demonstrated that it can potentially get him into trouble, just like this throw to middle infield mate Dozier that sent him contorting in order to glove the ball.
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Those types of plays make managers squeamish. If he continues to make these unforced errors and misplays will the Twins be quick to swap him with Eduardo Escobar who performed well in his service at short last year?
“He’s basically a rookie coming up here at shortstop now,” said Ryan. “It’s not like he’s been out there four or five years. But we’ll probably have a little leniency with him because he hasn’t been up here playing shortstop on an everyday basis yet.”
For the time being, the Twins will continue to roll with Santana at shortstop -- at least until either he cannot be trusted in the field or his bat never recovers from the early season slump. That being said, Ryan thinks Santana will come around and begin to impress with his raw tools.
“He should make some of those plays or all of those plays that are routine, of course, but he’s capable of making some of those fantastic plays too.”
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