Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 2.0

So here is my second attempt at projecting the Twins Opening Day roster… I encourage you to read my thoughts, develop your own and then post your thoughts and projections in the comments below.

THE HITTERS

Catchers (2): Jason Castro, Mitch Garver

Jason Castro will be the primary catcher. He will likely catch 110-120 games, so the question will be who can start behind the plate in the other 40-50 games.

Ideally, that backup would be a right-handed hitter. The three primary backup catching options all bat right-handed. Last time, I put John Ryan Murphy in the backup catcher role. He may be the favorite as spring training begins. Chris Gimenez has plenty of big league experience as a backup catcher. The Twins have asked him to spend time in the corner infield and outfield spots this spring to be more flexible. The thing he’s most got against him may be the fact that he’s not on the 40-man roster.

While he has the least experience, which certainly is the biggest thing he has against him, Mitch Garver might be the most well-rounded catcher in the organization. He has only about two months of time in AAA, but of the three, he’s probably got the most offensive potential. His defense has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years as well. He will have to go out and win the backup catcher spot. I think he’s capable. The question will be whether the Twins brass will want him as the big league backup, or if they’d like him to catch two out of three in AAA (and DH and play 1B in Rochester the other games).

Infielders (6): Kennys Vargas, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Escobar

Joe Mauer will start most of the time at first base, and he should, at least against right-handers. He’ll need time off, a bunch, so Kennys Vargas will get some time there. Vargas will likely be the primary DH. Miguel Sano will likely get the majority of time at third base, though he could see time at DH and first base too. Brian Dozier will be at second base most every day. I don’t think we need to worry too much about that. Jorge Polanco should start the season as the team’s primary shortstop. His question marks with the glove make it uncertain that that he’ll stay there all year. Eduardo Escobar will likely get some starts at shortstop. He’ll also play a lot of third base when Sano is playing elsewhere. With this group (and the 13th hitter), there is some flexibility in the infield. It’s possible that Byungho Park could be a DH option as well.

Outfielders (4): Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Robbie Grossman

I think the three starters are pretty close to set. Byron Buxton will be manning center field, hopefully as close to 162 times as possible. We all hope his September showing is a sign of good things to come. If he can put up decent offensive numbers with his defense, that is immensely valuable. Max Kepler will look to improve upon a solid rookie season in the big leagues. He’s got good range and an accurate arm in right field. While he’s a line drive hitter, he is very strong and has a chance to add a lot of power as he learns to lift the ball. Eddie Rosario fought a sophomore slump in 2016 both offensively and defensively. There are no secrets with Rosario. Doesn’t want to walk. Will likely struggle to post an OBP over .300. Has some momentary lapses. Sometimes tries to do too much. But he’s very talented. If he isn’t going to walk, he just needs to know which pitches he can and can’t drive. Robbie Grossman - as I’ve written before - may be the worst defensive outfielder I’ve seen in a Twins uniform (and I’ve seen Delmon Young, Josh Willingham and some other really bad defensive outfielders). But he can crush left-handed pitching. Maybe he can play some in left field when there are ground ball pitchers. He should DH a lot against left-handed pitching.

13th Hitter (1): Ehire Adrianza

This is kind of a new category for me… There were a lot of options that fit into this category. So I thought I would address them here. Right now I’ve got Ehire Adrianza as the “25th man.” I figured with the question marks with Polanco that Adrianza can be a late-inning defensive replacement when the team has a lead. Frankly, Eduardo Escobar could hold the same role for third base as well. But there are other options as well.

Danny Santana may fit the role best, in some ways. His ability to at least play three outfield positions and three infield positions may have the most value to the roster. Looking at the outfielders I profiled above, it becomes clear that the team could struggle in the outfield if one of the three starters gets a day off. It may make sense to have Santana, who isn’t a plus defensive outfielder either, available. JB Shuck could be an outfield option, as could Ben Paulsen. However, the two bat left-handed. The Twins could use a right-handed outfield option to give days off to Rosario or Kepler. That’s where Drew Stubbs might make some sense as well.

If Chris Gimenez proves that he can play multiple positions adequately, he is likely an option as well.

POSSIBLE LINEUPS

Versus RHP: Byron Buxton CF, Joe Mauer 1B, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano 3B, Max Kepler RF, Kennys Vargas DH, Eddie Rosario LF, Jason Castro C, Jorge Polanco SS

Versus LHP: Byron Buxton CF, Robbie Grossman LF, Brian Dozier 2B, Miguel Sano DH, Kennys Vargas 1B, Mitch Garver C, Max Kepler RF, Eduardo Escobar 3B, Jorge Polanco SS.

Byron Buxton, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco are the guys I want in the lineup almost every day. Kennys Vargas is in both lineups, but I would use the DH spot to also give “half days off” to guys like Dozier and Mauer and Grossman, as well.

THE PITCHERS

Starting Pitchers (5): Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Hector Santiago, Trevor May

All right, barring injury or something completely unexpected, the first four (Santana, Hughes, Gibson and Santiago) will be in the starting rotation when the season starts in April.

I have written several times that I think if Jose Berrios has a strong camp (and shows fastball command), he will be in the Twins starting rotation. I just can’t help but wonder how playing in the WBC will affect his opportunity to make the team on Opening Day. And that’s the reason that I have Trevor May starting the season in the rotation. While May isn't a Given to be a starting pitcher, but he's very likely guaranteed to be on the Opening Day roster.

There will be other contenders for a spot, including Justin Haley, Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch and Adalberto Mejia.

Bullpen (7): Brandon Kintzler, Ryan Pressly, Matt Belisle, JT Chargois, Taylor Rogers, Craig Breslow, Justin Haley.

It appears that Brandon Kintzler will go into the season as the closer. Matt Belisle and Ryan Pressly will certainly be set-up men. Taylor Rogers should have secured one of the left-handed bullpen spots.

So there are four of the seven bullpen spots pretty much guaranteed.

Let’s start with the left-handers. I am going to go with the assumption that Glen Perkins will start the season on the disabled list. That’s not necessarily the case, but probably still the more likely situation. Now I’ve got Craig Breslow taking the second lefty bullpen spot. He’s a veteran, brought in late, and the front office has frequently talked about veteran leadership. He will, of course, have to show this spring that his new arm angle will be successful. Ryan O’Rourke is the best option if they want a lefty-specialist due to his incredible numbers against same-siders. Buddy Boshers had a nice season in 2016 as well. Mason Melotakis will likely debut in 2017, but it wasn’t likely to happen at the start of the season. His oblique injury makes that more certain.

In my opinion, JT Chargois’s days in the minor leagues should be over. At 26 and with his September performance, he should be a given. I don’t know that he is. After that, it’s some of the same names. Justin Haley was my choice because he is either MLB-ready or very close. He could fill a long-relief role while also being able to spot start if needed.

That means that Ryan Vogelson and Nick Tepesch start the season off the big league roster. Michael Tonkin has a chance still to make the roster again. I think the toughest decision will be on Tyler Duffey. Could he make the team as a starter or a long-reliever? Would they start him in Rochester, and if so, would it be as a starter or a reliever?

We’ll probably update this every other week or so as Opening Day nears. For now, it’s a starting point for a possible roster. As I mentioned, some of the spots are certainly subject to change at any time.

What are your thoughts? What does your roster look like?