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Entering the 2023 season, the Twins’ rotation was composed entirely of players acquired via trade. Pablo López, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Joe Ryan, and Tyler Mahle were the team’s five starters on Opening Day. Bailey Ober was the only homegrown option, but he started the year in St. Paul. Derek Falvey has shown a keen ability in both Cleveland and Minnesota to trade for impact starting pitchers. Minnesota is likely to follow a similar path this winter, especially with the financial uncertainty surrounding the team's television contract.
The Twins and Marlins were in a unique position last winter. Both teams sought to contend in 2023, but there were holes on both rosters. The Twins acquired López and a pair of minor leaguers for Luis Arraez. López developed into the frontline starter the Twins needed, and Arraez took home the NL batting title, while helping Miami to the playoffs. It was a win for both clubs.
The Marlins are in a similar position this winter, needing to upgrade their lineup while having a number of team-controlled starting pitchers. Over the weekend, Jesús Luzardo’s name came up in trade rumors, because the Royals were interested in him before moving on to free-agent alternatives. Ken Rosenthal reported that Miami and Kansas City discussed a trade that included the southpaw being traded for first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, who is under team control for five more seasons. Luzardo is an intriguing name with some potential upside, meaning the Twins might be able to follow a path similar to last year's approach with López.
Luzardo is a first-year arbitration-eligible player, so he is under team control through the 2026 season. Over the last two seasons, he posted a 3.52 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 in 279 innings. His four-seam fastball usage went from 29.3% in 2022 to 46% last season, with his sinker usage dropping by over 14 percentage points. The Twins were able to help López add a sweeper after he joined the club, and Luzardo has a solid slider. Could the Twins reshape that pitch, too, to make it even more of a weapon? All trades below include the player's surplus value according to Baseball Trade Values.
Potential Trade 1
Marlins Receive: Matt Wallner (23.1 surplus value), Brooks Lee (33.5), and a low-level minor leaguer
Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3)
Wallner and Lee are the last two winners of the team’s Minor League Player of the Year award. Lee finished last season at Triple A and is on the cusp of making his big-league debut. In 125 games, he hit .275/.347/.461, with 39 doubles, 3 triples, and 16 home runs. He is widely considered the team’s second-ranked prospect, behind Walker Jenkins. Wallner, meanwhile, was part of a trio of Twins rookies who posted OPS+ figures north of 125. As with most power hitters, he has some swing-and-miss to his offensive profile, but he can connect for massive home runs. From Miami’s perspective, this trade gives the club two MLB-ready bats and another prospect that can be a wild card to add to their organizational depth.
Potential Trade 2
Marlins Receive: Edouard Julien (34.5), Emmanuel Rodriguez (17.1), and Max Kepler (8.3)
Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3)
Woof. This is a lot to give up for Luzardo, but starting pitching comes at a premium. Julien established himself at the big-league level last season, with a 130 OPS+ in 109 games. Minnesota wants him to be part of the team’s future, but the same could have been said for Arraez last season. Rodriguez helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels win the Midwest League Championship last season after posting an .863 OPS with 38 extra-base hits in 99 games. Kepler’s trade value might be at an all-time high, after a tremendous second half in 2023. He only has one year of team control remaining, which takes away some surplus value. In this deal, the Marlins get two bats for now and one who can help the club in the future.
Potential Trade 3
Marlins Receive: Ryan Jeffers (28.5), Jorge Polanco (9.4), Trevor Larnach (3.6), and Round B Competitive Balance Pick
Twins Receive: Luzardo (63.3)
Luzardo’s value is so high that this deal might not be enough to get it done. The Twins have been shopping veteran players like Christian Vazquez, so it’s interesting to consider the team dealing Jeffers, who has more trade value, instead. Polanco has two years of team control left, and his switch-hitting ability adds value. The Marlins already have Arraez at second base, so they need to make some defensive adjustments to fit both players in the lineup, but they've made a habit of building their rosters out of second basemen. Larnach currently doesn’t have a place with the Twins, and a change of scenery might help him to unlock his full potential.
Do any of these trades work for both teams? Would you include other players? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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