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Max Kepler has had his ups and downs with the Twins since joining the team in 2016. He appeared to break out in 2019, clubbing 36 home runs for the Bomba Squad while playing excellent defense. In the years that followed, while he remained a great defender, his production at the plate fell off, with his OPS dropping every year before hitting a career-low .666 in 2022.
With trade rumors swirling throughout the 2023 offseason, no one’s seat was hotter last year than Kepler’s. In need of a productive season, he answered the bell with his best year since the juiced-ball 2019 season. Kepler hit 24 home runs, with an .816 OPS and a 121 OPS+. On top of that, his hitting metrics at Baseball Savant backed his production with a page filled with red.
Kepler is due to become a free agent after the 2024 season. With the team looking to cut payroll, he has been at the center of many trade rumors, but moving him might be a mistake. Set to make a team-friendly $10 million in the final year of his team-friendly contract with the Twins, he's likely to be a bargain. According to FanGraphs, Kepler was worth $21 million in 2023, when he produced 2.6 fWAR. That kind of production will be tough to replace, especially when the Twins don’t have the guys to replicate it.
As the roster stands now, if the Twins were to dump Kepler, their options to fill the two corner outfield spots are Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff. Wallner will get a chance to hold down one spot after his breakout season, so that leaves Kirilloff and Larnach as options to fill the hole created by trading Kepler. They could shuffle around and move Royce Lewis to the outfield or make Willi Castro an everyday outfielder, but I don’t see those as credible everyday fits for a corner spot. Austin Martin is also possible, but I see this as the least likely option, due to his inexperience and the reticence the Twins will surely feel to limit his athleticism in a full-time corner outfield spot.
If the Twins elected to trade Kepler and move Kirilloff to the outfield, a hole would not be filled but merely moved. The Twins already need a right-handed platoon bat to pair with Kirilloff at first base, but moving him would ensure the need to add a full-time first baseman and a right-handed platoon bat in the outfield. On top of that, Kirilloff has been a poor defender in the outfield over his career, providing -5 Outs Above Average and -4 Runs Above Average in his two years of outfield playing time, according to Statcast. He has also been a bad defender at first base, but moving him to the outfield would result in a significant degradation in outfield defense compared to Kepler’s 4 OAA and RAA in 2023 (he had 11 and 10, respectively, in 2022).
Larnach has had moments wherein he looks like a potential All-Star for the Twins. Those moments, however, have been few and far between. Larnach is a better defensive outfielder than Kirilloff, but he hasn’t provided the value Kepler does on either side of the ball. Larnach strikes out 34 percent of the time at the plate and has struggled to hit breaking and offspeed pitches. In 2023, Larnach had a 50.9% whiff rate against breaking balls and 46.5% against offspeed stuff. Until he gets that corrected, he will continue to struggle in the major leagues. He’s still young and has time to improve on both sides of the ball, but right now, Larnach would be a significant downgrade from Kepler.
It's also worth noting the adjustments Kepler made at the plate in 2023. In previous years, he took an approach that sacrificed hard contact in exchange for a lower strikeout rate. For this reason, Kepler's BABIP was extremely low. He mishit a lot of balls, either on the ground or straight up in the air, rather than accept a whiff in pursuit of more solidly barreling it. While his strikeout rate sat at 14.8 percent in 2022, his BABIP sat at only .249, which was actually up from his .225 BABIP in 2021.
Kepler's shift in focus this season resulted in his hard-hit percentage spiking from 39.9% to 47.9%. While his strikeout rate increased to 21.6%, his BABIP jumped 40 points, to .288. Still in the prime of his career at just 31 years old, if Kepler can sustain this approach, the Twins could benefit significantly in 2024 and tag him with a qualifying offer on his way out the door.
What are your thoughts? Should the Twins trade Max Kepler? If so, how would you replace him? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!
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