The Twins' Offseason Action Is Contingent on Making a Significant Trade

Let's think back to some of the notable trades in recent Twins offseasons. This past year, there was the deal with Los Angeles that brought Manuel Margot to Minnesota. It happened in late February. The Jorge Polanco trade took place at the end of January. In 2023 the Twins traded for both Pablo Lopez and Michael A. Taylor in the latter part of January. In 2022, the Sonny Gray and Josh Donaldson trades took place in mid-March (following a lockout interruption). The 2020 Kenta Maeda trade was in mid-February, as was the Jake Odorizzi acquisition way back in 2018.

Outside of November trades that were driven by arbitration-raise contract situations (e.g. Gio Urshela and Kyle Farmer in 2022), you'll be hard-pressed to find any examples of Minnesota's front office under Derek Falvey completing deals before the home stretch of the offseason. This has been their M.O. more generally -- stay patient, let the market take shape, await your opportunities -- but especially so on the trade front.

I believe this is the year we see that change. The team's perceived payroll restrictions are prohibitive, to the extent that the front office really can't do anything until they find a way to clear out some salary. As we examined in our latest offseason status update, the Twins are likely somewhere between $5 and $10 million over budget before making a single addition. 

It feels like the Twins are stuck in a holding pattern until they can find a way to offload some salary and get back above water. Whatever modest free agents they might have on their radar are liable to come off the board while Falvey and Jeremy Zoll sit and wait to find the right deal to materialize. The Twins are motivated sellers because any meaningful they action they want to take this offseason is essentially contingent on a stage-setting trade.

Those trades could of course take many different shapes. The most obvious candidates to be moved in a pure salary dump are Christian Vazquez and Chris Paddack; they've been discussed plenty. The Twins could also pursue a more disruptive and high-scale avenue like trading Carlos Correa, or a more value-focused (albeit less financially-relieving) move like trading Willi Castro, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober or Jhoan Duran.

Several options are on the table. But one way or another, something's gotta give. As much as patience has been a virtue for Falvey's front office in the past, it doesn't seem wise to let the entire offseason pass while frozen in place and incapable of acting in any substantial way. 

With all this in mind, I suspect we will see the Twins buck their trend of waiting until the late offseason to strike in trades. As the MLB Winter Meetings get underway next week in Dallas next Monday, the conversations could take on a bit more urgency than usual.

If you want to get the full scoop on Minnesota's trade candidates, along with potential partners and possible returns, we went in-depth in our breakdown series. You can find those below:

• Chris Paddack
• Christian Vazquez
• Jhoan Duran
• Willi Castro
• Joe Ryan
• Bailey Ober
• Royce Lewis
• Ryan Jeffers
• Doris from HR 😂