The Twins Need Bats. The Future of Free Agency is Dim.

1 hour ago, shimrod said:

Sounds good until you realize the same organization in charge of their development is the one that "developed" the current crop of young players that aren't producing. 

Poor defense, bad baserunning, sheer guessing at the plate....maybe even the bad attitude is coming up from the minors. When you have to go outside the organization to find someone with hustle there's a real problem. 

Yes, I love listening to Gleeman but this talk of players like Lewis, Correa and Buxton “Saving themselves” when running on the basebaths and running out groundballs. That kind of stuff festers in an organization. Not running out groundballs to not get injured manifests itself into fielding balls off to the side, not sliding hard, and not having competitive at bats. For all the badmouthing of Gardenhire he sure did a lot more with a lot less most of the time.

3 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Scoring runs wins baseball games. It's legal to do so without hitting a home run.

The overemphasis on SLG at the expense of everything else is not an efficient way to construct a consistent scoring team.

It's like saying "The NFL has put a lot of premium on scoring touchdowns by throwing bombs on every down."

The teams that do the little things right win games. Not the teams that hit bombs most of the time. How many Yankees teams and the 2019 Twins didn’t make it far in the playoffs playing bad defense and terrible base running when the bomb bats went cold? Baseball is a over century old game and time and time again the most sound team is there at the end most of the time.

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

But why has the FO been so paranoid about depth to the point where they hold on to a Margot or Gallo

I don't see paranoia as much as an inability to admit error.

I've worked with people who were incredibly smart, genius level. A couple had become so accustomed to being right almost all the time they would not, could not, admit when they were wrong. A little humility goes a long way and I'm not seeing any, not a smidgeon, from Twins management. 

As for the drafting, I think the Twins draft talent. They just don't develop it. You would think at least one draftee since Buxton would be an everyday high level player. Best we've got is league average. That's not an accident. I don't know how to fix it but something needs to change on the farm before the MLB team becomes competitive. 

On 4/12/2025 at 12:04 PM, DJL44 said:

It's not "the league". It's the game. Home runs win baseball games. That's like saying "The NFL has put a lot of premium on scoring touchdowns".

You look at HR totals, so what you are saying is that team HR leaders should be leading in wins. In most cases, that's not the case & some cases, it's far from the case. Thank God baseball isn't HR derby or stat-driven fantasy baseball. Real baseball is dealing with variables & reacting to them, scoring runs any way that you can.

There are many ways to score runs, not only home runs. There are many ways to score a touchdown. So, your correlating TDs with HRs is way off. What do you gain by hitting HRs when you don't need them & SO trying to hit a HR when you do? What wins games is getting on base & hitting in the clutch.

21 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

The teams that do the little things right win games. Not the teams that hit bombs most of the time. How many Yankees teams and the 2019 Twins didn’t make it far in the playoffs playing bad defense and terrible base running when the bomb bats went cold? Baseball is a over century old game and time and time again the most sound team is there at the end most of the time.

How many teams didn't make the playoffs at all because they didn't have any home run hitters? You can't win playing deadball baseball in 2025.

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You look at HR totals, so what you are saying is that team HR leaders should be leading in wins. In most cases, that's not the case

The top 4 teams in HR at the moment are the Angels, Dodgers, Cubs and Yankees. They're 38-25.

The bottom 4 teams in HR are the Blue Jays, Royals, Rockies and Pirates. They're 25-37.

Hitting home runs helps a team win. It's indisputable.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/9/9/12842846/home-runs-wins-correlation-2016#:~:text=Initially%2C there appears to be,%2C R%2C is quite sizable!

Strike batters out, play good defense, hit bombs.

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Hitting home runs helps a team win. It's indisputable.

Strike batters out, play good defense, hit bombs.

Strike batters out, play good defense, hit bombs.

"You look at HR totals, so what you are saying is that team HR leaders should be leading in wins. In most cases, that's not the case & some cases, it's far from the case."

Looks like I have to spell it out for you. SD has the league best record at 13-3 they should be leading the league in HRs, according to you. In fact, they are (# 16). 2nd best SF 11-4; they are (# 7) in HRs. 4th best NYM record 10-5, they are (# 21) in HRs. You mentioned Blue Jays they are 9-7 top of AL East (tied for last) in HRs.

Teams like CO & PIT are just bad teams, so they really don't count. I agree with you that priority is Strong pitching & good defense but 3rd is clutch hitting. Now that clutch hit could  be a HR but most HRs are non clutch.

59 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Looks like I have to spell it out for you.

You don't have to. You're just wrong. Hitting home runs helps teams win. Not hitting home runs helps them lose.

8 hours ago, DJL44 said:

You don't have to. You're just wrong. Hitting home runs helps teams win. Not hitting home runs helps them lose.

Spoken like a true Kool-Aid drinker.

P.S.- I'm not accusing you of taking drugs, as some believe that's what drinking Kool-Aid is. For those who aren't familiar with Jim Jones. Jim Jones was a person who loved attention & people to follow him. He did whatever he could to keep people from thinking & to have them believe everything he said w/o question. Before he went down, he persuaded all his followers to take Kool-Aid laced with poison. That's what I understand what drinking Kool-Aid means. Believing something w/o thinking or questioning. What I try to do is get people to think & use common sense & not believe everything that is spun. 

30 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

This is the crux of our biggest problem. Development over shadows Budget as the largest problem in the Twins organization. As you accurately point out. A problem going on decades now. 

How many superstars have we produced? The definition of superstar is subjective so let's rephrase the question? What kind of value has our farm system produced since Joe Mauer? We can remove some subjectiveness and get a sense of a players value pretty easy. How much are other teams willing to offer them in free agency. How much are teams willing to give to acquire them in trade. 

Who on the upper end have the Twins produced since Joe Mauer?

Have their been any players produced by the Twins breaking the bank when they reach free agency? Long Term contracts for big money is an indication of value. Brian Dozier's one year deal for 9m isn't going to qualify as a superstar contract offer or an indication of player value produced by the system.

What player developed by the Twins has signed the largest contract? How does that compare to the other 29 teams? 

Who have the Twins developed and traded to acquire front line talent? Is Jose Berrios the bench mark? Is Luis Arraez the best we could do? Talented players but... they didn't bring back what converted reliever Garret Crochet brought back in a trade so what kind of value have we developed to bring back upper end talent?  

Buxton and Lewis have or at least had superstar potential. Are they the best we have produced since Mauer? The value of Buxton and Lewis have been severely compromised by chronic health issues. 

Is this decent value produced by an organization? How do we compare to the other 29 teams?

We don't compare well. 

 

 

 

The Twins no doubt have not produced much let's call it elite talent but is that the greatest input to success?  The Angels had Traut and Ohtani and still didn't do much.  There are many other examples.  It takes considerable depth to win.  If you're the Dodgers you can buy it.  Mid-market teams have to produce a large number of above average players to seriously contend.  

How often has that happened in the past 20 years among teams in the bottom half of revenue?  Not often.  Did those teams have superstars?  Not really.  Lorenzo Cain could be called a superstar.   How did they acquire him?  They traded away a legit superstar SP.

What teams in the bottom half have been more successful than the Twins.  That would be the As, Rays, and Guardians.  Would you agree that those teams have not drafted better than the Twins?  They produced more value by trading away established players and acquiring reclamation projects than they did by drafting.  

3 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

What I try to do is get people to think & use common sense & not believe everything that is spun. 

No, what you try to do is come up with a contrarian take and then make up a story out of thin air to try to get people to believe it.

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Agreed, Elite talent isn't the greatest input to success. The development of average to above average talent is also criticial. However, the elite player sure could be the fastest way to fix organizational stress points. The Angels did indeed have Trout and Ohtani and like you point out... The Angels couldn't get them a sniff of the playoffs. However, if the Angels would have chosen to trade Trout during those many years of organizational struggles (Prior to Trout's big contract and injury issues) or chosen to trade Ohtani. They could have (in theory) rebuilt their entire system with the return for that type of elite talent. If they did something like that. They could be one of the scariest young teams in 2025 right now. The Twins have never developed a player of this ilk to even entertain this path to relevance. 

I don't disagree with the points you are making... however this isn't a bottom half discussion per se. 

Yes... the bottom half teams have no choice. They have to develop, they have to move assets... on that we agree. However, development is also critical for the upper half teams. There is an impression that the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets just buy their players. They can do that but, they are also developing talent and doing really good job at it. Some of that talent lands on their 26 man rosters and some are moved for upper end talent from other organizations. There are basically 3 ways to build your rosters. Draft and Develop, Trade or Free Agency.  

You are correct that the A's, Rays and Guardians have done well for themselves over the decades in regards to development and acquiring talent to develop.

So have the Dodgers and Yankees and Red Sox.    

Really good point on the Angels.  I could not believe the Angels chose to keep Ohtani.  Incredibly bad decision that set them back considerably.   Without really looking into it.  My impression is the Dodgers have done a better job of drafting and developing than the Yankees or Mets, especially the Mets.  The Dodgers have one of the top farm systems right now.

While those high revenue teams still have to produce, I think we can all agree that constructing a true contender today without well-above average revenue is a big uphill climb.  I hated that they did not begin to address this with the last CBA.  They made it worse if anything with the luxury tax guidelines.  The big market teams like the status quo and the players will likely be a bigger obstacle than the owners in terms of getting meaningful reform.  

Our saving grace could be the pitching pipeline.  If, and it's a big if, we can produce enough pitching to maintain a relatively low cost / high quality staff, we can spend money on bats which are more affordable and easier to come by than pitching.  Of course, this is not news to anyone here,  I am just trying to stay positive.

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Really good point on the Angels.  I could not believe the Angels chose to keep Ohtani.  Incredibly bad decision that set them back considerably.   Without really looking into it.  My impression is the Dodgers have done a better job of drafting and developing than the Yankees or Mets, especially the Mets.  The Dodgers have one of the top farm systems right now.

While those high revenue teams still have to produce, I think we can all agree that constructing a true contender today without well-above average revenue is a big uphill climb.  I hated that they did not begin to address this with the last CBA.  They made it worse if anything with the luxury tax guidelines.  The big market teams like the status quo and the players will likely be a bigger obstacle than the owners in terms of getting meaningful reform.  

Our saving grace could be the pitching pipeline.  If, and it's a big if, we can produce enough pitching to maintain a relatively low cost / high quality staff, we can spend money on bats which are more affordable and easier to come by than pitching.  Of course, this is not news to anyone here,  I am just trying to stay positive.

Or use the pitching to trade for a bat. They will likely have to do both given the current state of the lineup. 

3 hours ago, Linus said:

Or use the pitching to trade for a bat. They will likely have to do both given the current state of the lineup. 

The best case scenario is that 2 or 3 of Matthews, Festa, Prielipp, Morris, Raya are what we hope. A couple other guys have a chance to play into that equation as well.  That would allow them to trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober.  That opens up some payroll for free agent hitting and also as you point out is a great avenue to acquiring a good bat.  If they continue to suck, and the pitchers named above are looking very promising, the best plan might be to trade one of those SPs at the deadline.  Contenders are not at all inclined to give up impact bats but perhaps we could acquire young players that are major league ready like Tampa and Cleveland have done in the past.

On 4/14/2025 at 9:07 AM, Riverbrian said:

Agreed, Elite talent isn't the greatest input to success. The development of average to above average talent is also criticial. However, the elite player sure could be the fastest way to fix organizational stress points. The Angels did indeed have Trout and Ohtani and like you point out... The Angels couldn't get them a sniff of the playoffs. However, if the Angels would have chosen to trade Trout during those many years of organizational struggles (Prior to Trout's big contract and injury issues) or chosen to trade Ohtani. They could have (in theory) rebuilt their entire system with the return for that type of elite talent. If they did something like that. They could be one of the scariest young teams in 2025 right now. The Twins have never developed a player of this ilk to even entertain this path to relevance. 

I don't disagree with the points you are making... however this isn't a bottom half discussion per se. 

Yes... the bottom half teams have no choice. They have to develop, they have to move assets... on that we agree. However, development is also critical for the upper half teams. There is an impression that the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets just buy their players. They can do that but, they are also developing talent and doing really good job at it. Some of that talent lands on their 26 man rosters and some are moved for upper end talent from other organizations. There are basically 3 ways to build your rosters. Draft and Develop, Trade or Free Agency.  

You are correct that the A's, Rays and Guardians have done well for themselves over the decades in regards to development and acquiring talent to develop.

So have the Dodgers and Yankees and Red Sox.    

Ding ding ding! This all goes back to a debate I had a few months ago with someone in here. Payroll in most cases should be achieved by successfull development. Outright buying players should be used to supplement a strong team not to build it. The best teams have always, always, always supplemented with FA. Not built them because of it. Juan Soto/judge. Soto/Alonso. Payroll and spending are the chicken and not the egg. The angels were the prime example of this for years. You can have the best 2 players on earth but if you have nothing around them you have nothing. Young inexpensive players that are good will always be more valuable than good aging expensive players. That’s why I can’t understand why people want a salary cap and floor. You don’t want aging expensive players because those contracts turn into pumpkins 9 times out of ten by the end. The best yankee teams were built from within. The Astros were built from within. The dodgers dynasty started from within. They are still at the top every year in developing young talent. The orioles have been built from within. That’s what you want. Good young talent has upside. Aging expensive talent does not. Baseball is a business and MLB owners want a cap cause they don’t want to pay $500M for a player. The MLBPA wants a floor so that they can get players guaranteed money from a guaranteed pool of money. Buying FA’s is what should be done to supplement a roster and extend a window. Not how you should build a team. You want teams that can’t compete to do bad. That’s how they build the next exciting team. They’re not “tanking”. They’re trying to build out a roster for the future. A young roster. Why? Because young talent is cheaper, more exciting and has more upside then a roster built of aging , expensive players with massive downside. The Twins made a mistake when they thought they should supplement this core with Correa. Not because they signed Correa but because that core wasn’t as good as they perceived. They’re now stuck with Correa and Buxton and have to supplement them with a new core. Do they double down or do they retool? They can’t buy their way out of this at this point. They need to develop their way out.

On 4/14/2025 at 2:27 PM, Major League Ready said:

The best case scenario is that 2 or 3 of Matthews, Festa, Prielipp, Morris, Raya are what we hope. A couple other guys have a chance to play into that equation as well.  That would allow them to trade one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober.  That opens up some payroll for free agent hitting and also as you point out is a great avenue to acquiring a good bat.  If they continue to suck, and the pitchers named above are looking very promising, the best plan might be to trade one of those SPs at the deadline.  Contenders are not at all inclined to give up impact bats but perhaps we could acquire young players that are major league ready like Tampa and Cleveland have done in the past.

Unless this turns around and turns around fast I think that’s what we’re looking at. Unload all impending FA’s at the deadline for what you can get. Castro might bring you something decent out of those guys. Then one of Ober or Ryan will bring you in the elite bat this team will need going forward. Teams at the deadline will be willing to give  up good talent for those guys. If this is to work out though and you’re not getting rid of Wallner or Larnach one of those guys needs to go to 1B. Erod and Jenkins are not playing 1B. And unless you’re gonna move Lewis there I don’t know how it all works out. If this continues buckle up. Could be a wild deadline after years of nothing at the end of July. 

7 hours ago, FargoFanMan said:

Unless this turns around and turns around fast I think that’s what we’re looking at. Unload all impending FA’s at the deadline for what you can get. Castro might bring you something decent out of those guys. Then one of Ober or Ryan will bring you in the elite bat this team will need going forward. Teams at the deadline will be willing to give  up good talent for those guys. If this is to work out though and you’re not getting rid of Wallner or Larnach one of those guys needs to go to 1B. Erod and Jenkins are not playing 1B. And unless you’re gonna move Lewis there I don’t know how it all works out. If this continues buckle up. Could be a wild deadline after years of nothing at the end of July. 

Let's just say for the sake of conversation Erod comes on board looks great.  Why not trade Larnach for a 1B or catcher instead of trying to convert Larnach?  It's possible Larnach could transition just fine but that's far from a certainty.  Of course, it's no certainty they could find the kind of deal I described either.   

Could Julien be the future 1B with given it would appear Keaschall is already in the mix?

14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

Let's just say for the sake of conversation Erod comes on board looks great.  Why not trade Larnach for a 1B or catcher instead of trying to convert Larnach?  It's possible Larnach could transition just fine but that's far from a certainty.  Of course, it's no certainty they could find the kind of deal I described either.   

Could Julien be the future 1B with given it would appear Keaschall is already in the mix?

Idk how they get there, that is filling these holes, but they need to figure out how they are gonna build this roster next year. Too many guys not performing and the young guys are coming. Their 2 big prospects both play outfield. 5 guys and maybe 6 if you put Keaschall in there and only 3 spots. 4 if you include the DH spot. It’s great having versatility but it’s leading to a terrible defensive team. They’re out of sorts and I’m not sure how you fix it at this point.

18 minutes ago, FargoFanMan said:

Idk how they get there, that is filling these holes, but they need to figure out how they are gonna build this roster next year. Too many guys not performing and the young guys are coming. Their 2 big prospects both play outfield. 5 guys and maybe 6 if you put Keaschall in there and only 3 spots. 4 if you include the DH spot. It’s great having versatility but it’s leading to a terrible defensive team. They’re out of sorts and I’m not sure how you fix it at this point.

I see nothing but positives if our OF becomes Buxton / Erod / Jenkins.  Wallner becomes a DH / 4th OFer.  That's a good recipe for improvement.   Larnach gets traded.  Trading from depth is also a positive.

Between Lewis / Keaschall / Lee / Julien / and perhaps Eeles they need to cover 2B/3B.  My guess is Lewis retains 3B and Keaschall becomes the primary 2B with Lee backing up 3B/2B/SS.  If Lee is so good that he needs to be a starter, that's a high-class problem I would like to have.  Maybe Keaschall is a super utility and plays a "Castro type" role if Lee performs really well.

Miranda and Julien are traded unless one of them steps up offensively and prove they can handle 1B.   I think it's more likely they fill 1B with free agents until Amick or someone else claims the spot.