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    The Twins Are Waiting On an Offer They Can’t Refuse

    Recent blockbuster pitching trades could quietly put the Twins back at the center of the rumor mill.

    Cody Christie
    Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    The pitching trade market has officially gone off the rails, unexpectedly positioning the Minnesota Twins at the center of off-season speculation—again.

    Over the past week, two headline-grabbing trades have reshaped how the league values high-end starting pitching. First came the Mets’ acquisition of Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta. Then, on Thursday, the Texas Rangers stunned the industry by landing Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore. Neither deal directly involved the Twins, but both could have significant ripple effects in Minnesota.

    Peralta is a very good pitcher, but he is under team control for only one more season. That did not stop New York from sending two of their top five prospects: infielder-outfielder Jett Williams and right-handed starter Brandon Sproat. Prospects are currency, and money is never an obstacle for Mets owner Steve Cohen. Through that lens, the move made sense. However, Williams and Sproat are both highly rated, and dealing them for Peralta (plus swingman Tobias Myers) was a bold stroke for New York.

    The Gore trade was even louder. Texas acquired the former top prospect, who is under team control through 2027, in exchange for five prospects. Shortstop Gavin Fien, right-handed pitcher Alejandro Rosario, first baseman and outfielder Abimelec Ortiz, infielder Devin Fitz Gerald, and outfielder Yeremy Cabrera all headed to Washington. That is an enormous return for one pitcher, even if it had a bit of quantity over quality to it.

    Now zoom out and look at the Twins. Despite constant offseason rumors, Minnesota has insisted on keeping Joe Ryan and Pablo López. Derek Falvey and company have publicly dismissed trading either ace. Yet, after seeing Peralta and Gore's return such impressive hauls, it's only prudent to reconsider.

    Ryan and López are in the same tier as those two pitchers, in the eyes of the league. In some front offices, they may even be valued more highly. They're closer to Peralta in quality, but they each have two years left before free agency, like Gore. That reality gives the Twins leverage. A lot of it.

    Even if Minnesota ultimately decides against moving either pitcher before Opening Day, this week made one thing clear: The ceiling on a Ryan or López trade package is enormous. If the Twins find themselves below .500 at the trade deadline and are not confident in a postseason push, the offers could be impossible to ignore.

    None of this means Twins fans should be rooting for a teardown. Ideally, Minnesota enters the season with both right-handers anchoring the rotation and plays well enough that dealing either one is off the table in July. That is still the preferred outcome. But there is another side to this.

    The Twins were not expected to do much this offseason, which is why the additions of Victor Caratini and Taylor Rogers caught some fans off guard. Those moves helped, but they did not solve everything. The bullpen still needs depth, and the roster still has clear holes. It also sounds like the team has other moves in the works before spring training next month.

    Listening on star players is not the same as committing to trading them. In fact, doing so could be the best way to strengthen the organization long-term, if the season goes sideways.

    Even after Rogers’s arrival, another reliever would make plenty of sense. While the Twins have publicly refuted the idea of trading Byron Buxton, Ryan, or López, now is exactly the time to keep an ear out for an offer they cannot refuse. All it takes is one desperate team to completely change the calculus.

    Buxton remains a long shot, given his no-trade clause, so the focus realistically falls on the two aces. Which teams might get desperate enough to overpay?

    The Yankees stand out, immediately. Boston is another name to watch. The Red Sox were tied to Ryan around last year’s deadline, even if that reporting turned out to be premature. It sounds like both sides have put to rest the Ryan trade rumors this winter. However, they have already acquired former Twin Sonny Gray this winter and have made 10 trades overall. An 11th would hardly be shocking.

    Baltimore is the sleeper. The Orioles were quiet last offseason, but have been far more active heading into 2026. With a young core built to win now, adding a cost-controlled ace could push them over the top.

    Losing a star is difficult, but a clear direction is vital. If Minnesota is truly open to dealing Ryan, López, or even Buxton, the return could quickly redefine the franchise's future. For now, Minnesota waits. The phone may not be ringing yet, but after last week, everyone knows the price of pitching just went up.


    Should the Twins be listening on significant offers for their stars? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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    Maybe the Twins should be trying to entice a team like Detroit into doing something they would never consider, trading Max Clark. Offer the Tigers Joe Ryan, Austin Martin, and either Taj Bradley or Connor Prielipp. Maybe Detroit flinches. Meanwhile the chorus screams, nobody trades their best prospects. Oh well. The 2028 pick for losing Ryan could be pretty good.

    If the Twins truly are waiting for an offer they can't refuse, they should realize that the players they have to trade (Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers, Buxton) are declining in value with every game they play. Ober is the only one who might be worth more in July than he is right now.

    MLB Trade Rumors has an article about reports in The Athletic that the Twins showed interest in Peralta. It doesn't seem like they'd be interested in Peralta while shopping Ryan at the same time. 

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-trade-rumors-freddy-peralta-brewers.html

     

    10 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

    Well that's obviously not true. If you do it well, it can build up your system during lean years. Hopes and dreams? You're not hoping and dreaming that Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez can win you a championship? What are you even cheering for?

    But mostly it's not true because it's 100% not a modern baseball tactic, unless by modern you mean anything after Curt Flood forced free agency on the owners.

    Only Losers trade their best players for prospects. Winners always trade their prospects for other teams MLB best. I have yet to see the prospects traded for put that team in a playoff run anytime soon, but often see the MLB players that were traded become prime reasons for the new teams success immediately and very soon. 
     

    This idea that trading your best players for prospects that may never even make it to the show makes a bad team better is way more often folly than success. How is that working for the Twins? It sure showed after all the trades. But it sure helped several teams that traded for the Twins best. 
     

    A team isn’t bad because of their best, they are bad because of the worst and mediocre. Hell, we all could be dead before it ever happens with rinse repeat. That is a better bet than thinking it is always going to happen by getting rid of your best that every other team would like to have, 

    Yup. After following this team since being 6 in 1961, calculating batting averages longhand after every at bat, scouring the Sunday peach section from Rapid City and Pipestone and White Bear Lake…..these last two seasons and the collapse of the current round of prospects (including Lewis and Wallner and Larnach and Kirilloff) that were the next sure thing….. I’m demoralized and yelling at the clouds. 
     

    I did have an awesome 5 years of fandom 1987-1991 through my 30s, (I see you got it years 8-12 - great age to get sucked in for life, eh?) and those 60s teams, too. I leave hope and dreams to others now. I have no time for the future and embrace the now. I hope it all works out for you that are gaming for next year, and the year after that maybe, or in a five year build cycle, or whatever you want to tell yourselves. 

    8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    …….and Team has #3 pick this coming draft.

    …. and likely take an 18 year old shortstop that is an Austin Martin utility player in 7 years?  Exciting. 
     

    But maybe finally, a top of the heap pitcher that is the next Skenes? Na. They like projects for pitchers. 

    2 hours ago, Paved Paradise said:

    MLB Trade Rumors has an article about reports in The Athletic that the Twins showed interest in Peralta. It doesn't seem like they'd be interested in Peralta while shopping Ryan at the same time. 

    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2026/01/twins-trade-rumors-freddy-peralta-brewers.html

     

    The Twins were interested in Peralta in the same manner as they were interested in Aaron Judge and a host of others. Surprisingly, the Brewers didn't accept the offer of Julien and Ohl for Peralta. Thus the Twins, rebuffed, turned to the rockies for their next next best deal.

    2 hours ago, h2oface said:

    Only Losers trade their best players for prospects. Winners always trade their prospects for other teams MLB best. I have yet to see the prospects traded for put that team in a playoff run anytime soon, but often see the MLB players that were traded become prime reasons for the new teams success immediately and very soon. 

    You mean losers like the 2024 Brewers who won 93 games, traded away their Cy Young winning pitcher and went on to the best record in MLB in 2025 and then traded their top SP.  How did they get acquire that top SP BTW.  Oh yes, he was acquired as a prospect. 

    Of course, then you have losers like the Guardians who have been the most inclined of any team in MLB to make this type of trade.  Those losers have more 90 win seasons than any team in the bottom half of revenue over the past 20 years.  Why not spend 20 minutes to validate your position.  All you need to do is pull up a successful team on Fangraphs, sort by WAR, and their acquisition method is listed.   

    Trading proven major league success for a handful of prospects is a fool's errand. A little over half of first-rounders ever make it to the majors. Only 30% attain 1.5 WAR. Drop below the top 100 draft picks and the incidences of success decline rapidly. Out of nearly 65,000 players drafted, only 11.2% ever made it to the majors at all. And that's just getting to the majors - perhaps keeping a spot for a couple of years. The number of prospects who become high-end MLB performers is much smaller. The chances you'll ever get back the value you traded away is vanishingly small. Much worse than a casino - but better than Powerball. If the trade is a disguised salary dump, that's a different question. But the idea that such a move will improve the team in the long term? 

    18 hours ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

    Agreed. Neither package paid by Texas or the Mets is particularly impressive. Both were all prospects all "hope", no substance. That's the kind of package you look for and take on July 31 (Aug 4 this year) when you're 10 games under .500 and out of contention. I cling to the belief that the plan is to see how things play out and if the first half shows a complete rebuild is necessary, then you trade off guys like Ryan, Lopez and/or Buxton, plus Bell, Caratini and Jeffers. I'm pretty confident that we can get a package as good or better than those two teams got at the deadline, especially for quality starting pitching with a year plus of control remaining like Lopez and Ryan. The risk is injury. It's a real risk but to me one worth taking to see if this team can perform for the first half.   

    This ⬆️

    3 hours ago, dcswede said:

    Trading proven major league success for a handful of prospects is a fool's errand. A little over half of first-rounders ever make it to the majors. Only 30% attain 1.5 WAR. Drop below the top 100 draft picks and the incidences of success decline rapidly. Out of nearly 65,000 players drafted, only 11.2% ever made it to the majors at all. And that's just getting to the majors - perhaps keeping a spot for a couple of years. The number of prospects who become high-end MLB performers is much smaller. The chances you'll ever get back the value you traded away is vanishingly small. Much worse than a casino - but better than Powerball. If the trade is a disguised salary dump, that's a different question. But the idea that such a move will improve the team in the long term? 

    Do you consider Tampa Bay foolish?  TB has had (8) 90-win teams in the past 20 years.  41% of their WAR produced in those years where they won 90 or more was produced by players acquired as prospects.  They actually produced less WAR from the draft and International Draft combined. See chart below.

    BTW ... The low revenue team with the most 90-win seasons is Cleveland.  Their ratio is actually a couple percentage points higher.  The theory that this is a foolish practice is derived from ignoring history.

     

    8  Tampa Bay Rays WINS Drafted Intl AaP Trade FA  
    100%  Tampa Bay 2021 100 24.5% 5.9% 54.0% 0.0% 15.6%  
    100%  Tampa Bay 2023 99 13.8% 9.8% 66.2% 0.0% 10.2%  
    100%  Tampa Bay 2008 97 45.7% 0.0% 33.2% 4.5% 16.6%  
    99%  Tampa Bay 2019 96 18.6% 0.0% 45.8% 9.0% 26.0%  
    100%  Tampa Bay 2010 96 64.7% 0.0% 22.1% 9.1% 4.1%  
    100%  Tampa Bay 2013 92 50.7% 0 28.6% 8.5% 12.2%  
    100%  Tampa Bay 2011 91 61.5% 0.0% 33.0% 5.5% 0.0%  
       Tampa bay 2018 90 18.6% 0.0% 45.8% 9.0% 26.6%  
       Tampa Bay Total 95.13 37.3% 2.0% 41.1% 5.7% 13.9%  



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