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    The Trade Market For Trevor Plouffe


    Nick Nelson

    Trevor Plouffe is a key figure in the coming offseason for the Minnesota Twins, with the presence of Miguel Sano and the club's desire to get find him a spot in the field creating an interesting dynamic.

    I wouldn't say Plouffe is expendable – the Twins can't afford to simply give away a quality bat like his – but it would make sense to trade him this winter if the right opportunity presented itself.

    So what kind of return can we expect for Plouffe?

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    Many have been skeptical of Sano's ability to excel at third base because of his size, but Twins officials continue to cite his underrated athleticism in saying he can be an asset there. He did look decent in limited duty at the hot corner as a rookie.

    This much is clear: Sano is much more valuable if he's playing in the field, and relegating him to DH duty this early in his career is less than ideal. He won't be playing first base any time soon, and he sure seems like a better bet at third than in the outfield, where the Twins are apparently going to take a look at him even though he's never played there before.

    Trading Plouffe would open up third base while also adding payroll flexibility, as the 29-year-old is expected to make somewhere around $8 million through arbitration next year.

    But he was a big piece for the Twins offense this season. He batted fourth or fifth in 78 percent of Minnesota's games and drove in a team-leading 86 runs. That production is not easily replaced, and his defense at third was very solid to boot.

    The problem is that from the outside, Plouffe might not look quite as valuable as he does from the inside. Among 21 qualified MLB third basemen, he ranked 15th in OPS, eighth in home runs and 14th in WAR. By the numbers, he was not a standout starter at his position.

    He was, however, a legitimate starter, as well as a credible threat in the middle of the lineup. That's something plenty of teams could use. So what might another GM be willing to give up in order to acquire Plouffe, who has two years of team control remaining?

    Working in Terry Ryan's favor is a very thin free agent market at third base. The top name available is David Freese, who is basically an older and inferior version of Plouffe. After that, there's nobody that could really be viewed as a viable starter.

    That means clubs in dire need of help at the hot corner will be facing limited options this offseason. Here's a look at four such clubs, with a glance at what could be on the table in a potential Plouffe trade.

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Aramis Ramirez was Milwaukee's regular at third through the first half, but they traded him to Pittsburgh in July. Hernan Perez got most of the starts thereafter, but did little to establish himself and has never really profiled as a big-league starter. The Brewers lack impact prospects at the position, and need to right the ship following a 94-loss season, so they will surely be aggressive in pursuit of upgrades.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The Brewers recently exercised the $8 million option for 2016 on Adam Lind's contract. He'd make a lot of sense as a return piece in a Plouffe trade, because he could take over the freshly vacated DH spot and his powerful lefty bat would look even better than Plouffe's behind Sano. Milwaukee would maybe have to throw in an additional mid-level prospect since the Twins would be losing a year of team control in going from Plouffe to Lind.

    Atlanta Braves

    Atlanta had nine different players start at third base in 2015, with none drawing more than 41 starts. Nobody is coming up internally to help out at the position so they have a strong need to look outside. The Braves scored the fewest runs in baseball this year and had only one player surpass 10 home runs, so they could definitely use a power infusion.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    One arm that could be of great interest to the Twins is Arodys Vizcaino. The 24-year-old throws in the high 90s and took over as Atlanta's closer in September, finishing the year with a 1.60 ERA and 37 strikeouts in 33 innings. He missed the first half of this season after testing positive for the same drug as Ervin Santana, but bounced back nicely and finally showed signs of reining in the control issues that have been his limitation. Skilled young catcher Christian Bethancourt is another to watch.

    San Diego Padres

    The incumbent, Yangervis Solarte, is an overachiever who lacks the talent of a player like Plouffe. The Padres are always searching for offensive punch, and might be especially interested in a right-handed bat with Justin Upton likely to depart as a free agent.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The most appealing player on the San Diego roster is Derek Norris, a 27-year-old catcher with a good bat. He's young and won't be a free agent until 2019 so he'd be a long-term answer at a position where the Twins sorely need one. Plouffe plus a prospect in the Jorge Polanco range might get it done.

    Chicago White Sox

    Trades within the division are rare, so this might be a long shot, but the White Sox are truly hopeless at third base. Tyler Saladino received the most starts for them this year, leading a bunch that also included Conor Gilaspie, Gordon Beckham and Mike Olt. No help from the farm is near.

    What Might a Deal Look Like?

    The White Sox have a number of very good right-handed pitching prospects, including Spencer Adams, Tyler Danish, Carson Fulmer and Frankie Montas. If the Twins could add any of those arms to their system, while finding a bat elsewhere to replace Plouffe's, it would be a savvy move for the long-term. Again: it's hard to see Chicago sending one of its better young arms to a division rival.

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    Great point.  Here you can see 2015 positional WAR by team:

     

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/team_compare.cgi?lg=MLB&year=2015

     

    Twins are 14th, but within 0.1 of 17th.

     

    Teams below 17th:

     

    WSN
    LAA
    PHI
    ATL
    ARI
    SDP
    NYM
    NYY
    DET
    CLE
    CHW
    MIL
    BOS

     

    Just not a lot of good matches in this group.  I am sure plenty of teams would take Plouffe off our hands if we're selling, but we're not necessarily going to get great value or our preferred positional return (i.e. a catcher or prospects to flip for a catcher).

     

    What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete).   No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use.  Thoughts there?

    What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete). No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use. Thoughts there?

    Yankees are committed to Headley, and the Mets are VERY committed to Wright.

    Not sure if this what you meant, but Plouffe is gone after two more years (eligible for FA following the 2017 season).

     

    I'm not sure his value is that much more now that it will be next winter.  (Of course, I don't think his value is as high as some folks here do, owing largely to demand.)

    That is what I meant. Trading for two years of a player is always going to be more appealing than one.

    Say what you want about Plouffe, he's more valuable to the organization at this point in his career than Mauer is.  Bench or trade Mauer (even if you have to eat virtually all of his salary - throw Nolasco in, too, and get some bullpen depth).  Call up Vargas and start Sano at third.  Use Plouffe as your corner utility infielder.  If you keep Mauer, he can DH, play a little first base and even pick up some time in the outfield if absolutely necessary.  Getting rid of Plouffe is not a good option.

     

    That is what I meant. Trading for two years of a player is always going to be more appealing than one.

    And then you extend him a QO and get a draft pick.  the twins don't have to be run like a tiny market baseball team that has to trade players before they become FA's. 

     

    Plouffe should be traded for one and only one reason: the haul of prospects (or for Norris) is fairly good (like one top 50ish prospect at a minimum).  He shouldn't be traded for the sake of trading him.

     

    And then you extend him a QO and get a draft pick.  the twins don't have to be run like a tiny market baseball team that has to trade players before they become FA's. 

     

    Plouffe should be traded for one and only one reason: the haul of prospects (or for Norris) is fairly good (like one top 50ish prospect at a minimum).  He shouldn't be traded for the sake of trading him.

     

    You're seriously going to extend a 31 year old Trevor Plouffe a 16m QO?

     

    Holy schnikes I have no response for that.

     

    You don't trade him because he's about to be a FA, you trade him because he'll be a 31 year old FA that has an immensely talented player behind him that plays the same position that is dirt cheap and has 5 years of control.

     

    Seriously though, a qualifying offer?

     

    What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete).   No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use.  Thoughts there?

    fella named david Wright maybe for the Mets

    Unless I am missing something, something is missing here :)

     

    a. Plouffe is from LA (Encino, which is Northern Valley, but still)

    b. Taylor Featherston is on the top of the Angels' 3B depth chart right now.

     

    1+1 = ? 

     

    can they get someone like Trevor Gott & Chris O'Grady?  Hope so.  I'd do that trade...

     

    You're seriously going to extend a 31 year old Trevor Plouffe a 16m QO?

     

    Holy schnikes I have no response for that.

     

    You don't trade him because he's about to be a FA, you trade him because he'll be a 31 year old FA that has an immensely talented player behind him that plays the same position that is dirt cheap and has 5 years of control.

     

    Seriously though, a qualifying offer?

    he would likely decline it and I would be fine with Plouffe on a one year contract.  Plouffe would be stupid to decline it and not go after a multi-year deal.

    I am a fan of Plouffe. Which I guess puts me in the "overvalued" camp, which I don't feel is either accurate or fair. If you like Plouffe and respect him and his contributions, I guess you overvalue him. If you feel solid fielding 3B who hit .250-ish with 30 Dbl and 20 HR power kind of grow on trees these days, then I guess you undervalue him.

     

    It's not being snarky, it's simply the reasonable split being discussed here in regard to Plouffe, his value, the number of quality 3B in the league, and teams in need.

     

    While Norris has yet to hit as he did in the minors, the potential is there. I wish he were LH, but oh well...can't have everything. I like the idea of trading with San Diego, though I could get behind a real quality RP arm or two.

     

    San Diego options include Plouffe, possibly another solid prospect, for a talented young catcher in Norris.

     

    The other option, crazy but impossible to dismiss, is a 4 or 5 for 3 with both clubs burning the midnight oil. Plouffe, Polano perhaps, Arcia maybe, Nolasco back to the NL, and a young pitcher not named Berrios. Stewart, Gonsalves or Burdi maybe? Twins get their young catcher, a top relief arm in Kimbrel, but also take on Shields.

     

    This deal doesn't really work for the Twins unless a 3rd team is involved for Shields, Santana or Hughes. (Hughes if the one I'd like to really keep) It may be too complicated...but it would be interesting.

    Unless I am missing something, something is missing here :)

     

    a. Plouffe is from LA (Encino, which is Northern Valley, but still)

    b. Taylor Featherston is on the top of the Angels' 3B depth chart right now.

     

    1+1 = ? 

     

    can they get someone like Trevor Gott & Chris O'Grady?  Hope so.  I'd do that trade...

    Hey, I think you may have something here. A win-win for both clubs. Mutual need. There is a history of moves between the two clubs, though it has been a while. And while both are in the AL, they are not in the same division.

    Plouffe is an interesting player, or maybe 3B was an interesting position this year. 2015 MLB 3B ranks (20 qualified for the batting title):

    • AVG - 20/20 
    • OBP - 16/20
    • SLG - 11/20
    • OPS - 14/20
    • WAR - 13/20
    • HR - 9(T)
    • RBI - 5
    • 2B - 6(T)
    • PA - 10/20
    • GIDP - 1 (Led MLB)
    • SO - 9/20
    • BB - 8/20 (Tied with Valbuena who did not qualify but was close)
    • RF - 5/20 
    • dWAR - 8/20

    The numbers show that he was very solid, even above average, last season. I think there is a market for him should they try to trade him. I just hope they don't give him away for nothing if they do trade him

     

    Are there actually people out there who thought it would be a good idea to trade Plouffe for Lind, before the Park news?  I would be physically sickened by that move.  That is absolutely terrible.

     

    A solid fielding 3B, with RH power in Target Field (built for RH power), for a guy with marginally better numbers from the left side, in Target field (where LH power goes to die), who won't play defense (hopefully, he's never posted a positive dWAR), and seems to get injured frequently?  I can't get over how awful that would be.  Plouffe is so much more valuable than Lind.

    The other option, crazy but impossible to dismiss, is a 4 or 5 for 3 with both clubs burning the midnight oil. Plouffe, Polano perhaps, Arcia maybe, Nolasco back to the NL, and a young pitcher not named Berrios. Stewart, Gonsalves or Burdi maybe? Twins get their young catcher, a top relief arm in Kimbrel, but also take on Shields.

    This is quite possible to dismiss, I just did. :). Seriously, that trade idea is so nuts for SD, it boggles the mind how often it gets repeated around here.

     

    I am a fan of Plouffe. Which I guess puts me in the "overvalued" camp, which I don't feel is either accurate or fair. If you like Plouffe and respect him and his contributions, I guess you overvalue him. If you feel solid fielding 3B who hit .250-ish with 30 Dbl and 20 HR power kind of grow on trees these days, then I guess you undervalue him.

    It's not being snarky, it's simply the reasonable split being discussed here in regard to Plouffe, his value, the number of quality 3B in the league, and teams in need.

    While Norris has yet to hit as he did in the minors, the potential is there. I wish he were LH, but oh well...can't have everything. I like the idea of trading with San Diego, though I could get behind a real quality RP arm or two.

    San Diego options include Plouffe, possibly another solid prospect, for a talented young catcher in Norris.

    The other option, crazy but impossible to dismiss, is a 4 or 5 for 3 with both clubs burning the midnight oil. Plouffe, Polano perhaps, Arcia maybe, Nolasco back to the NL, and a young pitcher not named Berrios. Stewart, Gonsalves or Burdi maybe? Twins get their young catcher, a top relief arm in Kimbrel, but also take on Shields.

    This deal doesn't really work for the Twins unless a 3rd team is involved for Shields, Santana or Hughes. (Hughes if the one I'd like to really keep) It may be too complicated...but it would be interesting.

    I would be very happy getting Norris for Plouffe but I would not touch Shields.  The last thing we need is an even more expensive SP in decline phase.

    I would be very happy getting Norris for Plouffe but I would not touch Shields.  The last thing we need is an even more expensive SP in decline phase.

     

    Agreed!

     

    I don't want Shields. And I think a deal for him is way too complicated to pull off anyway. But still, there were rumors last year, which is why I addressed it.

     

    Yankees are committed to Headley, and the Mets are VERY committed to Wright.

     

    wow...that's one sucky contract (just looked it up).  I suppose you have a point here other than the fact that Wright was on the wrong half of 3B this offseason.  Given they were in the WS, the strikes me as a bad contract they offload (and pay a good chunk of) to a bad team so they can pick up a better 3B.  I wouldn't rule them out, as the Mets without question have the resources to get it done if they want to upgrade there, but I do agree that's quite a bit more difficult. 

    wow...that's one sucky contract (just looked it up). I suppose you have a point here other than the fact that Wright was on the wrong half of 3B this offseason. Given they were in the WS, the strikes me as a bad contract they offload (and pay a good chunk of) to a bad team so they can pick up a better 3B. I wouldn't rule them out, as the Mets without question have the resources to get it done if they want to upgrade there, but I do agree that's quite a bit more difficult.

    Wright is basically their Mayer, he's not getting dealt. And he actually is still pretty good, 2.7 bWAR in a down offensive year in 2014, and 128 OPS+ coming back from injury in 2015. In fact, his injury/medical situation is so unusual, there is a good chance he eventually retires early and/or insurance picks up a large tab.

     

    But they are hoping that won't be necessary for a few years, and there is zero percent chance they deal him and replace him with Plouffe this offseason.

     

    he would likely decline it and I would be fine with Plouffe on a one year contract.  Plouffe would be stupid to decline it and not go after a multi-year deal.

     

    You're fine with paying Trevor Plouffe 16M?  I don't have words.

     

    If I'm Trevor Plouffe I see roughly double whatever I'm likely to make on the market and I take that in a heartbeat.  Any agent that recommended Trevor Plouffe decline a QO should be fired on the spot.

     

    You're fine with paying Trevor Plouffe 16M?  I don't have words.

     

    If I'm Trevor Plouffe I see roughly double whatever I'm likely to make on the market and I take that in a heartbeat.  Any agent that recommended Trevor Plouffe decline a QO should be fired on the spot.

    He has averaged 3 WAR the last two seasons and each WAR is worth 5-6M minimum.

     

    But basically you are saying that you trade him for anything because he has to be moved?  That is what it sounds like.  I disagree. 

    With all the talk about positional log jams and young, talented players being blocked, i cannot believe how the Plouffe supporters are coming out of the woodwork right now.

     

    Plouffe is, like, okay. I think if you can find somebody who wants him and is willing to take Nolasco as a part of whatever the deal is, you go for it. We just need to open up some space. He really isn't going to be missed that sorely.

     

    What jumps out here is the Mets (in the WS) and the Yankees (who always compete).   No one mentioned the Mets in the article, but there's a need, a drive, the fact that they are close, and I'm pretty sure they have pieces we could use.  Thoughts there?

     

    Depends on what they do with Murphy, Duda (could trade), and if they sign a new SS. Wright is always going to be an injury question mark going forward too. It's conceivable that they think of Plouffe as a younger version of Cuddyer, but in the infield.

     

    Unless I am missing something, something is missing here :)

     

    a. Plouffe is from LA (Encino, which is Northern Valley, but still)

    b. Taylor Featherston is on the top of the Angels' 3B depth chart right now.

     

    1+1 = ? 

     

    can they get someone like Trevor Gott & Chris O'Grady?  Hope so.  I'd do that trade...

     

    Yes, the Angels.

     

    With all the talk about positional log jams and young, talented players being blocked, i cannot believe how the Plouffe supporters are coming out of the woodwork right now.

     

    Plouffe is, like, okay. I think if you can find somebody who wants him and is willing to take Nolasco as a part of whatever the deal is, you go for it. We just need to open up some space. He really isn't going to be missed that sorely.

     

    I'm with you 100% Dinger. Plouffe's numbers have been broken down on other threads, and he is the definition of middle of the road 3B. The writing has been on the wall since July when Sano came up and dominated that Plouffe is expendable. Now we're seeing some resistance with trading him.. I don't get it. 

    A grip, for everyone, is needed.

     

    1. I like Plouffe. If there were no Miguel Sano, I would keep Plouffe for another year at least.

    2. Miguel Sano is here and he has immediately shown that he is ready to dominate.

    3. Moving Sano from a position that he has worked on *for years* in the minors to one in which he has never played is a *ridiculous* way to handle him when there is no real need to do so.

    4. Plouffe, still with no. 1 above, is an above average player, but he also might be in the decline phase. He was good in 2014, above average in 2015, and probably will be above average in 2016 and even 2017.

    5. From 4, certain teams are going to want him. The Angels are clearly one team. If the Brewers want to be remotely competitive any time soon, they are another. The list almost hits double digits just with regard to third basemen.

    6. From 4 and 5, there is likely quite a bit value to be had for Plouffe and second-tier prospects (which, in the Twins system, borders on the first-tier for many, many teams). A catcher would be the highest priority. Or *two* legit bullpen arms. I would only try trading for youth, however.

    7. No one is taking Nolasco right now.

    Edited by Shane Wahl

    You're fine with paying Trevor Plouffe 16M? I don't have words.

     

    If I'm Trevor Plouffe I see roughly double whatever I'm likely to make on the market and I take that in a heartbeat. Any agent that recommended Trevor Plouffe decline a QO should be fired on the spot.

    If Plouffe is likely to make roughly half of $16 mil AAV on the open market in 2 years with no comp pick attached, then why do you think his trade value would be very high now, or appreciably lower next winter? Sounds like he just isn't worth that much, period, which means you're probably not getting many great trade offers and your best course of action might simply be to hold on to him for the time being.. Not a lot of guys with that FA profile get dealt early, or if they do, the return is modest. What did Freese fetch a couple years ago? Bourjous?

     

    If Plouffe is likely to make roughly half of $16 mil AAV on the open market in 2 years with no comp pick attached, then why do you think his trade value would be very high now, or appreciably lower next winter? Sounds like he just isn't worth that much, period, which means you're probably not getting many great trade offers and your best course of action might simply be to hold on to him for the time being.. Not a lot of guys with that FA profile get dealt early, or if they do, the return is modest. What did Freese fetch a couple years ago? Bourjous?

     

    At the time Bourjos was seen as a fairly attractive asset.

     

    Let me make this clear for what appears to be the billionth time - no one is arguing Trevor Plouffe is going to land you Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard and a delicious pie on the trade market.

     

    No one.

     

    No one is saying that.

     

    No one.

     

    But whatever value he has is at it's height right now and moving him now gives the team the best chance to balance their roster given the young guys coming soon (OFs) and the young stud we have already at the same position.  I don't know exactly what is out there for Plouffe, but the Twins should damn sure be exploring what it is in a FA market with garbage for 3B.




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