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    The Minnesota Twins Didn’t Tear It All Down, At Least Not Yet

    At the end of the day, looking around at all the carnage, after 10 MLB players were traded, this somehow wasn’t a complete teardown, despite what it looks like.

    Greggory Masterson
    Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

    Twins Video

    I know, it’s clickbait Twins Daily at it again, selling out all of their integrity to get you to read about how it’s not that bad, actually! or three things that are Pollyanna at 1 Twins Way! or even everything is horrible and it will not get better! But no, I’m being serious. This is not a full-blow teardown—at least not yet.

    Yes, the Minnesota Twins had one of the biggest fire sales you’ll ever see in American professional sports. A full 40% of their active roster (and 2019 playoff legend Randy Dobnak) is now wearing another uniform. They paid the Astros to take their star shortstop off their hands, with no return to speak of. They rid themselves of the top five arms in their bullpen. Their Opening Day first baseman, second baseman, and left fielder, as well as their current third starter? All gone.

    It’s impossible to say that selling off that many names isn’t a shock to the system, and I won’t spit on your boots and tell you it’s raining. But I will say that it’s bordering on a half-measure. And you can take that however you will.

    Look at what the Twins traded. First, five rentals: Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, Chris Paddack, Danny Coulombe, and Ty France. All five of those players were headed for free agency, and none ever had a great chance to get an extension of their liking from the Twins, even if the team’s payroll was higher. Technically, all of them are eligible to return to the Twins, but I wouldn’t have put those odds high beforehand. There’s truly nothing of note in trading the last two months of these players for future value. So let’s not even consider them.

    What did the Twins really trade? What were the difficult decisions? Well, obviously, Carlos Correa was the biggest name. The Twins bailed out of the back half of his six guaranteed years, and they agreed to pay approximately one-third of his remaining salaries, removing about $75 million from their books in the process. Again, I’m not going to pretend that wasn’t shocking, notable, or future-altering. But I’ll come back to this.

    The other four players were the top four right-handed bullpen arms—Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Louis Varland. Durán, Jax, and Stewart each had two years of team control remaining, but Varland had five. Most fans expected at least one—if not two—of Durán, Jax, and Stewart to be traded, but Varland was the surprise. The bullpen represented the greatest strength for this team.

    And yet.

    If we lined up all of the possible ways to trade 40% of a team’s active roster and ordered them from least devastating to most devastating, this specific one is probably on the lower end.

    To start with, half of those players were not likely to return anyway. Even if you believe that any of those five should be back next year, you rarely see an extension signed this close to free agency. So, really, it’s Correa and four bullpen arms that have been erased.

    There’s a whole gamut of opinions on Correa, but one thing is clear: he wasn’t worth the over $30 million he made per year during the first half of his contract, and betting men (no offense to any Cleveland Guardians) wouldn’t put money on a transformative turnaround. The trade cost the team their shortstop of the present, but he was also headed to third base soon, if he and the Twins allegedly had their wishes.

     

    So, no, they didn’t trade their superstar shortstop. They traded their solid, highly-paid third baseman, who was playing shortstop for now. They got nothing of value in return, but they did free up about $20 million per year in spending money, which is more than they spent on free agents in the last two years combined. Naturally, you need to believe that the Twins won't cut an additional $40 million from the payroll for that to make a difference, but so be it.

    The bullpen, on the other hand, was the strength of this team, and it’s a huge blow to peel off two upper-echelon late-inning guys and two very good setup men, one with five years of control. However, making the bet year-to-year that a bullpen continues its dominance is a risky one. Obviously, it’s not a coin flip. I’m not going to tell you that there’s a 50% chance that the pen would cease to be a strength next year if held intact. But if a team is looking for a way to consistently sell high on their value that might not be there in the future, here it is.

    There’s going to be a lot of questions heading into 2026, and I won’t pretend that it’s easy to reconstruct a bullpen like this. But it’s a whole lot easier to reconstruct a bullpen than an infield or a pitching staff.

    Speaking of which, the outlook for the lineup is relatively unchanged. The Twins lost Bader and Castro, who are more valuable high-end bench players, but they’re not building blocks. They lost Correa, whose defense has been waning and has not yet reached a league-average OPS for 2025. I don't want to be too dismissive of his talent; he was an elite hitter in 2024 when healthy, but his presence and performance in the first three years of his Twins contract has been shaky enough to scare even the most optimistic of fans, and we have seen worse falloffs before.

     

    There is no great promise in this lineup as constructed, either. It’s been the greatest issue for the Twins, both defensively and offensively, but the (alleged) building block pieces are still there, and the Twins added additional options to sort through as 2025 concludes in Alan Roden and James Outman (you're free to hate the moves that brought them here, but—outside of Correa and his eighth-best OPS—the Twins did not subtract from their 2026 corps and instead added, even if only by technicality). If nothing else (and I believe that this factor has not gotten enough attention), if these hitters continue to struggle in 2026, they were always going to be a bad offense, regardless of this deadline.

    And in the rotation, the Twins still boast two starting pitchers who comfortably fit into the number one starter category, as well as Bailey Ober and a host of young, developing starters between the ages of 23 and 25 in Zebby Matthews, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and newcomers Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. The starting rotation is also not only still intact but deeper ahead of 2026 than it was last week. Again, your mileage may vary, but the Twins did not take a step back in the rotation, instead adding.

    In addition to bringing in far-off prospects, the Twins more or less stood pat in the lineup and bolstered the rotation. There are a ton of questions in the bullpen, but given where the Twins stand heading into next season, it’s hard to call this a full teardown.

    The thing that would make it a teardown? Breaking up the starting rotation, especially the top two. And that's my biggest point. It's not torn down, yet—whether you agree with the above assessment or not.

    The Twins were engaged in trade talks with Joe Ryan. That was widely reported. They maintained a high bar to acquire him, and no one met it, but he was technically available.

     

     

    And it’s very possible that Pablo López would have been in trade talks, especially with all the emphasis on shedding payroll at this deadline, had he been healthy. It’s possible that the Twins ran out of time. But both Ryan and López are under team control through 2027, and with two guys like that on the roster (and Byron Buxton, I suppose), you’re not really packing it in for a couple of years. Or at least you shouldn’t.

    Maybe in December they’ll change teams. Or perhaps in spring training, they’ll be flipped to some team that just lost their ace to Tommy John. But until then, the Twins didn’t trade either of their two most important pieces, and I refuse to call it a teardown. It’s trimmed to the bone in some places, but it’s not stripped to the studs. Not yet anyway.

    And for what it's worth, former Twins GM Thad Levine seems to agree.

     

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    Featured Comments

    38 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    It's fine to be optimistic. 

    It's another to say "Rojas will be ready early in 2026."

    Rojas has 5 starts above A ball. Five.

    Hes never thrown more than 84 innings in a season and has 41.2 so far this season. 

    He's not going to be part of the 2026 rotation. How could he be?

    You are absolutely right but does it make any difference if it's 6-7 guys or 7-8 guys for 2 spots?

    2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    I hear you and that's reasonable.  However, I hear an awful lot of grumbling (understandably) about this organization's failure to build anything more than a fringe playoff team that never makes a deep run.  While I agree there is something to be said for frequency of making the playoffs, I think pretty much everyone wants more.  The question is are we willing to do what it takes to build something more substantial?  Even with Pablo / Ryan / Ober, this was never going to be among the top contenders.  Those three are very  good but they are not elite.  It would take a very good offense and we did not have the horses.  They made an investment in Correa intending for him to contribute significantly to getting over the top.  He is not that player.  Larnach / Wallner are mediocre.  We have zip at 2B and 1B.  I am not sure what we have at 3B.  It was time to shuffle the deck.

    I think that the grumbling about failing to build anything more than a fringe playoff team is probably amplified by the board more than it is in reality among the larger group of Twins fans.  Those are some of the loudest people.  I recall living through the 70's and the early 80's when we went into every season without any hope of competing.  In 1977 it took great years by Carew, Bostock, Hisle, and Goltz to even get us to about 84 wins -- which was a big deal at the time (for a 4th place team). It was not a particularly great time to be a Twins fan.  Fan morale was definitely low then as well.   Having a team that is at least competitive gives fans hope that there might be something actually there.  Nobody I know is going to say after next year's 90 loss team, "Yeah, but isn't this great, we sure are set up for 2030!".  

    7 hours ago, Nshore said:

    It would be interesting to know exactly where the $400 million+ franchise debt came from under the Pohlads.  Is it because the financing of fielding a Major League team in Minnesota truly doesn't work?  Or is it connected somehow to the Pohlads' other business interests?

    I say other interests

    6 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

    I think that the grumbling about failing to build anything more than a fringe playoff team is probably amplified by the board more than it is in reality among the larger group of Twins fans.  Those are some of the loudest people.  I recall living through the 70's and the early 80's when we went into every season without any hope of competing.  In 1977 it took great years by Carew, Bostock, Hisle, and Goltz to even get us to about 84 wins -- which was a big deal at the time (for a 4th place team). It was not a particularly great time to be a Twins fan.  Fan morale was definitely low then as well.   Having a team that is at least competitive gives fans hope that there might be something actually there.  Nobody I know is going to say after next year's 90 loss team, "Yeah, but isn't this great, we sure are set up for 2030!".  

    Alot of truth in this except the 2030 part.  They have a ton of starting pitching that is major league ready.  They also need to completely remake the OF with the exception of Buxton and they have great OF prospects that are ready or will be by next year.  They have Keaschall ready and Culpepper close.  a little thinner in terms of INF options but this is quite atypical for a rebuild to have this many players major league ready.  hey can miss on quite a few and it will take a couple years to completely sort out but this will be a talented young team in 2027.  I should add it will be a lot more athletic team that might actually create some excitement and play some defense.

    Just now, Major League Ready said:

    Alot of truth in this except the 2030 part.  They have a ton of starting pitching that is major league ready.  They also need to completely remake the OF with the exception of Buxton and they have great OF prospects that are ready or will be by next year.  They have Keaschall ready and Culpepper close.  a little thinner in terms of INF options but this is quite atypical for a rebuild to have this many players major league ready.  hey can miss on quite a few and it will take a couple years to completely sort out but this will be a talented young team in 2027.

    I admire and respect your optimism.  I hope you are correct.  

    You know what would help?  If those other teams would stop trying to win too!

    25 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

    How old is Ohl?  How old is Adams?  Looks like we picked up a reliever from KC,  Hatch 30 year old.  This is a painful process.   I expect many more waiver claims of players like Hatch.  

    Martin, Julien, Roden, Clemens, potentially Outman are your players that are auditioning for 2026.   Clemens right now has the step up and may be solidifying himself as the future 1st baseman.  You state don't invoke Rookers name with mid 30's relievers.    I am not,  I am comparing the opportunity the 5 have above to figure something out.  In most cases you don't find a player.  Everyone once a while a player like Rooker or Castro finally figures it out and it is a huge addition to the team. You are finding a player or pitcher of the AAAA scrap heap.    

    This is a long process,  we have 50 more games.  If you want to be debbie downer be my guest.  You are missing the bigger points to fit your agenda.  My main point on the pitching depth,  more than likely we have 3 open spots available next year as we are only retaining Ober and Lopez,  making the depth more necessary.    I hope we can find a position player,  yes it most likely won't be a player of Rookers ability,  but it will still be good for the team.   If you can't find positivity in that,  you have a long road ahead as a Twins fan.  Its definitely not always rainbows and unicorns.   

    This team doesn't need more 31 year old pitchers who flamed out in the high minors. 

    Abel and Bradley are in AAA while Jose Urena is spot starting. Apparently there's no room for Outman either? The auditions aren't just to see who can stick on a sure to be crappy 2026 squad. 

    I'm a debbie downer because I don't think Travis Adams has looked good at the major league level? C'mon....

    I'll say it again concerning depth, if you're chopping/churning through names you don't have actual depth. 

    1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

    Sucking for a couple years is no guarantee you're a "95 win or more team" in 3-4.

    If only it were that easy.

    Idk how people can forget how bad this team was from 2011 through 2016. It wasn't that long ago....

    37 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    Luckily for the Twins, the Red Sox fixed Jorge Alcala (or so I've been told repeatedly around here) and he is now available to be brought back. Step 1 of the pen rebuild is just waiting for them to claim! 2026 is back in play, folks! Stop the tear down! We're back!

    Much like we were told we should figure out what the Mets do to keep their pitchers healthy......

    5 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    This team doesn't need more 31 year old pitchers who flamed out in the high minors. 

    Abel and Bradley are in AAA while Jose Urena is spot starting. Apparently there's no room for Outman either? The auditions aren't just to see who can stick on a sure to be crappy 2026 squad. 

    I'm a debbie downer because I don't think Travis Adams has looked good at the major league level? C'mon....

    I'll say it again concerning depth, if you're chopping/churning through names you don't have actual depth. 

    Outman is awful, and the only reason he won't be DFA at year end is embarrassment. 

    21 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    This team doesn't need more 31 year old pitchers who flamed out in the high minors. 

     

    The depth we had was become of 30+ year old relievers that figured out how to be effective in Stewart and Coloumbe.  Relievers is the one position where players 30+ suddenly can become solid quality relievers.  

    27 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    I'd be unhappy.....very unhappy. They can't fix him, we know that. 

    Mike he is a known commodity,  he has upside and he has more talent than 4 -5 we have in the bullpen.  If they don't claim him you know they see no hope.  At the very least get him in and dfa later.  AAA needs arms as well.  

    1 minute ago, bunsen82 said:

    Mike he is a known commodity,  he has upside and he has more talent than 4 -5 we have in the bullpen.  If they don't claim him you know they see no hope.  At the very least get him in and dfa later.  AAA needs arms as well.  

    My fear is that he's mediocre, they keep him for next year because "upside", and he's bad (as he's been here for more than a year, and in Boston now also). At some point, upside is just something never reached (to be clear, I was believer in giving him a chance this year.......but now I'm ready to move on. At some point, you move on in life).

    I'm at that point. YMMV, of course. 

    1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    I'm a debbie downer because I don't think Travis Adams has looked good at the major league level? C'mon....

    You're making longterm assessments on a player that should be given a real audition, all based on a very small sample during a time when the Twins are able to run players out there and not actually be concerned about the Ws and Ls. 

    Travis Adams could be the next Louis Varland, in fact the Twins are effectively betting on it. Not Adams, specifically, but on the fact that they can take other failed starters and turn them into useful bullpen arms. In fact, at Adams age, Varland had pitched significantly worse. The incredibly ironic thing is if that Varland trade happened on March 31st in stead of July 31st, everyone here would have loved it. It would have been declared the heist of the century.

    6 minutes ago, bunsen82 said:

    Mike he is a known commodity,  he has upside and he has more talent than 4 -5 we have in the bullpen.  If they don't claim him you know they see no hope.  At the very least get him in and dfa later.  AAA needs arms as well.  

    Yeah, can bring him in and always DFA him, I don't care. But the Twins should try to make sure they are also trying to bring in pitchers with options when possible. Alcala is gonna bounce around the league, much like Tonkin did, because of the fact that he doesn't. 

    1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

    I admire and respect your optimism.  I hope you are correct.  

    You know what would help?  If those other teams would stop trying to win too!

    Here is what I think gets lost in comparing paths.  Staying the course had a milestone at the end of 2027 that to me was an expiration date.  Ryan / Lopez / Ober / Duran / Jax would all be free agents.  I did not like our odds of getting anything significant done in the playoffs without major improvements in the offense.  Even with new owners, there is no way that was getting done through free agency.  Our only shot would have been to unload our top prospects to bet on that two-year window.

    What does the 5-7 year window look like from 28 forward?  The difference in that window would be whatever we traded away to bet on 26-27 plus whatever becomes of all the prospects we just traded for plus whatever we get for Ryan / Lopez / Ober.  The difference in terms of how the team projects for several years after 2027 is night and day.  I understand prospects often fail but the difference in potential is monumentally different.

    2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    Here is what I think gets lost in comparing paths.  Staying the course had a milestone at the end of 2027 that to me was an expiration date.  Ryan / Lopez / Ober / Duran / Jax would all be free agents.  I did not like our odds of getting anything significant done in the playoffs without major improvements in the offense.  Even with new owners, there is no way that was getting done through free agency.  Our only shot would have been to unload our top prospects to bet on that two-year window.

    What does the 5-7 year window look like from 28 forward?  The difference in that window would be whatever we traded away to bet on 26-27 plus whatever becomes of all the prospects we just traded for plus whatever we get for Ryan / Lopez / Ober.  The difference in terms of how the team projects for several years after 2027 is night and day.  I understand prospects often fail but the difference in potential is monumentally different.

    If that's the window, dealing for 25, 26, and 28 year olds made zero sense. IMO, of course. 

    14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    If that's the window, dealing for 25, 26, and 28 year olds made zero sense. IMO, of course. 

    I didn't like the Outman deal either.  I thought it made the least sense of any of the deals for the same reasons you have stated in various post.  That said, the relevance of that deal in the big picture is quite small.   We no doubt can debate and grade the various deals, but the wisdom of rebuilding is the bigger issue by far, IMO.

    1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

    I didn't like the Outman deal either.  I thought it made the least sense of any of the deals for the same reasons you have stated in various post.  That said, the relevance of that deal in the big picture is quite small.   We no doubt can debate and grade the various deals, but the wisdom of rebuilding is the bigger issue by far, IMO.

    You know we agree they had to do this stuff, but I don't love the execution all that much. We'll see....

    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Outman is awful, and the only reason he won't be DFA at year end is embarrassment. 

    I have zero faith that he's anything of value, but stashing him at AAA is more embarrassing than watching him flop with the Twins IMO. 

    54 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

    You're making longterm assessments on a player that should be given a real audition, all based on a very small sample during a time when the Twins are able to run players out there and not actually be concerned about the Ws and Ls. 

    Travis Adams could be the next Louis Varland, in fact the Twins are effectively betting on it. Not Adams, specifically, but on the fact that they can take other failed starters and turn them into useful bullpen arms. In fact, at Adams age, Varland had pitched significantly worse. The incredibly ironic thing is if that Varland trade happened on March 31st in stead of July 31st, everyone here would have loved it. It would have been declared the heist of the century.

    No, I'm saying that I disagree that Adams has "flashed," which was the post I responded to. 

    1 hour ago, bunsen82 said:

    The depth we had was become of 30+ year old relievers that figured out how to be effective in Stewart and Coloumbe.  Relievers is the one position where players 30+ suddenly can become solid quality relievers.  

    No, the bullpen was built on failed SPs turned RPs within the organization. This team was still trading for, and giving innings to, guys like Dylan Floro and Trevor Richards the last few seasons. 

    12 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    At this exact moment in time, there is truth to this article. However:
    1) Chances of Lopez being traded in offseason - 80%
    2) Chances of Ryan being traded in offseason - 85%
    3) Chances of FA signing with contract value over $5m this offseason - 20%
    4) Chances of salary savings being reinvested in team - negative 42%

    If the team sold tomorrow, and a new owner came in ready to spend this offseason, then the Twins would be more on a 1-2 year rebuild track than a 3-5 year rebuild track. If the team is not sold, Ryan and Lopez get moved, than this team is arguably the second worst team in baseball ahead of the Rockies heading into 2026.
     

    I know someone else who likes to make up odds and statistics out of thin air. You sure it isn’t 1500%?




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