The Defensive Dilemma

Here are the things the Twins could do to improve their  defense as I see it.  I would also like to note that our rankings today do reflect Josh Willingham out there 68 games this year.

-Players could improve defensively.  It is interesting to note that Plouffe is now average defensively becuase he had the chance to get better.  Santana and Pinto have not had that chance (Pinto has not solely been a catcher even in AAA).

-One of Arcia, Vargas, or Sano can be your DH

-A more athletic player such as Joe Mauer could move to a corner OF spot, having a guy like Arcia less exposed at 1B.  He has to be a better corner OF than Arcia. 

-Players coming up are better.  Buxton is an obvious example, but if Hicks or Rosario could be an adequate bat that would certainly be a huge upgrade in a corner

-If we have to, someone who is not improving could be traded or cut

-Our pitching could get better.  In addition to Meyer coming up, I would think a correlation does exist between bad pitching and bad defense. It seems reasonable to expect that the worse the pitcher, the harder the ball will be hit, the more balls that will drop.

I think the solution will lie in most of these bullet points.

On a KTWIN pregame show last week, Chris Attebery reported that Gardy said he spoke to Gary Cederstrom after he umpired the previous night's game in which Pinto caught. Attebery said Gardy said Cederstrom said that "it was like night and day" - that is, Pinto's movement behind the plate and Cederstrom's ability to see by him and call balls and strikes. For whatever that's worth.

 

 

Night and day compared to what - to the last time Cederstrom was home plate umpire and Pinto caught? Or compared to Suzuki? And was it a positive or a negative night and day?

This notion continues to puzzle me.  I don't disagree that on paper Mauer looks athletic enough to be an adequate outfielder.  But reality says that could very well not be the case.  Mauer is 31 with some injury history and 6'5" tall.  He's played one emergency game in the outfield in his career?  I would expect a steady dose of Mauer in the outfield to be someone who can't read the ball well off the bat, doesn't take good routes to the ball, and then struggles to pick the ball up off the ground well when he's chasing it around because he's so big and likely losing his athleticism rapidly due to age and injury history.  And I really don't want to see him crashing into any walls risking another concussion. 

 

He's not on my list of options to improve the outfield defense.  It's not a long-term solution and if you're making that move it has to be done right away so he spends the entire offseason preparing for it.  I'd be incredibly surprised if they made that move after indicating he was our 1B moving forward.  I'm sure Mauer could play the outfield, I just doubt he'd actually make the defense any better.  I think I've even advocated for him in the OF in the past, but at this point I don't find it a good idea.

I can't argue that he is not older or taller than Arcia, although I am not sure that being 6-2 makes someone a better OF than someone that is 6-5.  But right now my money is on Mauer in a foot race.  We used to have a kid that was slow and when he would run after a ball, the coach would yell "unhook the plow".  That is what I want to yell when I see Arcia chugging out there.

This was a long time ago, but Joe was the national football player of the year and averaged close to 20 points a game in basketball as well.  An adjustment period would exist, no doubt.  But I think he would be a better OF than Arcia.  I really do.

I did some rather crude back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to determine how effective the improvements would be if the Twins could improve to league average Defensive Efficiency (.705). It turns out it would prevent roughly 80 hits. Similarly, improving the strikeout rate to league average (20%) would prevent roughly 65 hits. Given the crude nature of my method, I'm going to assume that the difference between the two is essentially a wash.

 

If we all agree that the main culprit for the poor defense has been the outfielders, it is probably true that acquiring two above-average outfield defenders to improve defense is easier and cheaper (either in trades or via free agency) than acquiring two (or more) starting pitchers with above-average strikeout rates. I hope they attempt to improve in both areas of run prevention, but I also hope that they recognize that improving the defense (especially in the outfield) is probably lower hanging fruit right now.

Hicks would have to be miles better and hopefully that .280 average holds up!  Small sample size, I get it.

I can't disagree what most of you are saying (minus the move Mauer to the OF talk), but is it oversimplifying to think that even with Gold Glovers at EVERY position our pitching staff would still give up a ton of hits? Our pitchers, even those that are the "groundball specialists" don't induce enough "weak" contact. When Gibson is on, like the June starts, the defense behind him all of a sudden looked good. It's not a coincedence. Bad defense is magnified by bad pitching. Poorly hit balls aren't the ones fans should worry about our OF screwing up. Its the plodding to the gaps and being able to actually make a play on something sharply hit that leads to disaster.

A guy like Deduno was passed over by EVERY team in the league numerous times, but the Twins threw him out there time after time. Walks have little to do with the defense (although, more confidence in your defene might prevent some nibbling). Kevin Correia had to be overpaid to come here, no one wanted him when he could go anywhere.

The bottomline is that our lineup isn't the problem. Or defense isn't THE problem, but could improve. The problem is our pitch to contact pitchers are pitching to HARD contact. Not the defense.

Night and day (positive) compared to the last time Cederstrom umpired behind Pinto.

Ah - I see - yes, that's good news

I can't disagree what most of you are saying (minus the move Mauer to the OF talk), but is it oversimplifying to think that even with Gold Glovers at EVERY position our pitching staff would still give up a ton of hits? Our pitchers, even those that are the "groundball specialists" don't induce enough "weak" contact. When Gibson is on, like the June starts, the defense behind him all of a sudden looked good. It's not a coincedence. Bad defense is magnified by bad pitching. Poorly hit balls aren't the ones fans should worry about our OF screwing up. Its the plodding to the gaps and being able to actually make a play on something sharply hit that leads to disaster.

 

A guy like Deduno was passed over by EVERY team in the league numerous times, but the Twins threw him out there time after time. Walks have little to do with the defense (although, more confidence in your defene might prevent some nibbling). Kevin Correia had to be overpaid to come here, no one wanted him when he could go anywhere.

 

The bottomline is that our lineup isn't the problem. Or defense isn't THE problem, but could improve. The problem is our pitch to contact pitchers are pitching to HARD contact. Not the defense.

Given the comment about Mauer to the OF, I think this is aimed at me.  Just wanted to note that I completely agree our pitching plays a huge role in the defense.  I cited a correlation between the two and said that bad pitching results in hard hit balls.  Even cited our pitching getting better as one of the ways our defense gets better.

So much of this speculation could have been eliminated if Santanna had been moved to SS, and Shafer to center and Hicks to left to finish the year out. I know it's "fall ball" but we are player contenders who need to win. We are not going to see that many AAA arms, and diluted lineups. My reasoning? Buxton is going to play center sometime next year. (You can't base decisions now on possible injuries down the road). Meaning Hicks has to play left. (Or not at all) I do like Shafer as a 4th OF and PR. I would not waste FA money on an OF until the Buxton thing plays out. Arcia is not going anywhere, especially to first base. Neither is Dozier or Plouffe, until Sano arrives. And there would be nothing wrong with a Suzuki Pinto combo. Suzuki could be PH for by Pinto later in the game, depending on the situation. Also since his best part of the season was the first half and he seems to be wearing down, a lighter work load might be in order? (Hopefully the rationale for 3 catchers will be resolved this winter). None of the above means this will be next years lineup in March. But it let's us get headed in a direction. Playing the Nunez's of the world at short does not.

I have to agree that Santana should be starting 80% of the games in September at short with Schafer or Hicks in CF.  I guess this is a product of putting the best team on the field because contending teams should face our best.  I would argue the team with these suggested changes is no worse than what has been put out there lately.

We need to acquire a LF via free agency and platoon Schafer and Hicks in CF.  If one of them earns the everyday job, great.  Plus, that makes one of them available as a late inning defensive replacement or pitch runner or both.  That team would be quite different than the one we started with in 2014. 

On a Pinto developmental note, I just read in the PP that Suzuki needs to start 11 of the last 16 games to collect his last 150k bonus. I wonder if Gardy knows about this?

We keep bringing up prospects who can't defend a position. I also continue to read minor league reports of players playing C, OF, 1B in the space of a week. Do other organizations shuffle their prospects from position to position? I'd like to think by the time you've promoted a prospect to AAA you'd figured out where he fits on D. An earlier poster pointed out that repetition is key to improvement. Constantly changing position with these guys cannot be helping their development.

That's kind of my point. If a guy isn't good enough to hold a single position the ability to play marginally at three or four doesn't help. I get the benefit of having an option or two on the bench; you don't need 5 or 6 of them on the roster and you don't need half your AAA roster shuffling positions in hopes of making major league players out of AAAA filler. If the guy can't do a major league job it's time to dump him and bring the next guy up, not waste another season or two trying to turn chicken byproducts into chicken salad.

It does help.  There are starters and there are bench players in AAA.  Bench players need to play more than one position to make an MLB team.  And just because a guy like Hermann has bench upside doesn't mean he needs to be dumped.  There are only X number of legitimately good AAA prospects in Rochester (or any AAA team).  The rest are made up of AAAA types (bench upside) or career MiLB'ers.

That's kind of my point. If a guy isn't good enough to hold a single position the ability to play marginally at three or four doesn't help. I get the benefit of having an option or two on the bench; you don't need 5 or 6 of them on the roster and you don't need half your AAA roster shuffling positions in hopes of making major league players out of AAAA filler. If the guy can't do a major league job it's time to dump him and bring the next guy up, not waste another season or two trying to turn chicken byproducts into chicken salad.

+1

     You hit the nail on the head.  The Twins spend too much time (especially playing time) trying to weave silk purse's from sows' ears.