Should the Minnesota Twins Consider Signing These 3 Prospects to a Long-term Deal?

Extending a prospect before they have played a game in the big leagues is of course riskier than extending a young player with some MLB experience and its not done nearly as often as the latter. However, this offseason we’ve already seen the Seattle Mariners reach a long-term agreement with AA prospect Evan White and the extension of top prospect Luis Robert marks the second year in a row that the Chicago White Sox have come to a long-term agreement with a player yet to reach the big leagues (Eloy Jimenez was extended in the previous offseason).

Chicago’s young outfield prospects signed very similar deals. Both contracts bought out all six years of team control (Robert for $50 million, Jimenez for $43 million) and each deal tacked on two additional years of team options. Evan White’s deal with Seattle was a bit more modest. While Jimenez and Robert were/are among the top of multiple prospect rankings, White usually shows up somewhere in the 50 – 100 range. The 23-year-old also not played above the AA level (outside of four AAA games to end 2019), but is expected to compete for the Mariners opening day first base job. Seattle was able to sign White for $24 million over the next six years along with three additional club options.

This brings us to the Twins. Since a pitching prospect has never signed an extension before throwing a pitch in the MLB, we will stick with position players. The three who are both closest to the big leagues and have a high enough prospect status to warrant consideration would seem to be Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, and Trevor Larnach. Like White, these three prospects have topped out at the AA level but are probably not as MLB-ready as both Jimenez and Robert.

Royce Lewis is the closest in prospect status to both Jimenez and Robert as he has seen himself placed in the top-10 of several national prospect rankings. Going against Lewis would be his lackluster overall offensive production in 2019 (97 wRC+ in 94 A+ games/88 wRC+ in 33 AA games) and the fact that he is still just 20-years-old (although his age reduces some of the concern about the offensive numbers). He bounced back with an MVP effort in the Arizona Fall League and has loads of potential, but a possible Lewis extension would probably need to wait another year.

Like Lewis, Trevor Larnach spent his 2019 season between single- and double-A, but he had a much more successful season with the bat. Larnach managed a 148 wRC+ at both levels and has an advanced approach at the plate. As a collegian draftee, he will turn 23 in February. If the Twins were to work out a deal with Larnach, it would likely be closer in dollars to White’s deal than Robert’s or Jimenez’s, as he’s more of a mid-to-late top-100 prospect. For the Twins to extend Larnach at this point they would need to open up a spot in the outfield, which outside of an Eddie Rosario trade, seems unlikely.

That leaves us with Alex Kirilloff. Of the three, he makes the most sense as an extension candidate. After destroying A-ball with a 176 and 168 wRC+ between low- and high-A in 2018, Kirilloff’s 121 wRC+ in 2019 at AA may seem like a step back. However, Kirilloff was battling a wrist injury for much of the season and he really came alive in the playoffs where he homered in four straight games. Kirilloff’s bat is arguably major-league ready and Minnesota may end up with an opening for him. Kirilloff can play first base (along with corner OF) and if the Twins don’t acquire a corner infielder, they could roll with the 22-year-old.

There are many obstacles to a long-term extension like this taking place. Although, there have been four in the last three years (the three aforementioned along with Philadelphia’s Scott Kingery) that makes just five total in MLB history (the other being Houston’s Jon Singleton in 2014). Teams must be willing to take a leap of faith that the prospect will turn out (although the financial risk isn’t much) and players, while getting life-changing money, give up potentially valuable free-agent years.

Finally, there a few other considerations that may inhibit such a deal in Twins Territory. One of the additional bonuses to the extension is that it erases the need to play the service-time game with MLB-ready prospects. However, Kirilloff is the only extension-worthy candidate that is arguably ready to play for the Twins, and even that is a bit of a stretch. Additionally, both Kirilloff and Lewis are represented by Scott Borras, who in all likelihood would encourage his clients to get to free agency as soon as possible.

What do you think? Should the Twins consider a long-term commitment for an unproven commodity? Who of the three would you most like to see Minnesota extend?

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