Projecting the Twins 2026 Opening Day Roster, v. 4.0

10 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Do they DFA Kent to make room for Altavilla? In the roster projection here, Jackson ends up DFA and Chafin needs a spot, so that series of moves is neutral, but the 40-man is currently full. I could see a late trade changing the calculus, but I'm not sure Altavilla (or any of the non-roster pitchers other than Chafin or a healthy Hendriks) offers enough promise to force a roster decision otherwise.

I think we may learn a lot about Altavilla and maybe Hendricks from the World Baseball Classic. Altavilla is playing for Italy and should get some meaningful innings before they're eliminated. Let's not forget Altavilla had a 2.48 ERA/1.17 WIP/0.8WAR last year in 28 appearances, 29 innings, with 21 SOs. There very well might be something there.   Hendricks is on the Australia roster but I'm not sure if he'll pitch for them unless they make it past the elimination round. If they both pitch well, Kent is the obvious choice to create some 40 man space. Interesting to see who else would be out. Less chaff on the 40 man than usual depending on how you feel about Wagaman, Jackson, Gray, Kreidler, and Outman, all position players.  I don't see a lot of obvious DFA candidates on the pitching side after Kent (who, to be favor, I know nothing about and who might turn out to be good). 

On 3/3/2026 at 12:00 PM, Nshore said:

Wallner with an apparently almost guaranteed 2026 roster spot after his 2025 BA of .202 

Oh sure, tout the gaudy seasonal batting average.  But it was pumped up by a BA of .255 in the plate appearances when the score was already at least 5 ahead or behind.  In all other situations when it mattered he batted .192.

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

A dinger every 15.27 AB's in 2025.

A dinger every 7.9 AB when the game was already pretty much decided.  One every 18.7 when the score was within 4. 

That's basically the difference between being a 30-HR guy if he ever got 600 AB, and a 40-HR guy.  Not that 30 is bad, but combined with a low BA it ain't all that, either.

And when the game's not close, that 7.9 rate will fool us into thinking he's a 75-HR guy if we just give him the chance.

(And no, not every batter has splits of that magnitude.  Byron Buxton had a good 2025, and when the game was within 4 runs he homered every 13.67 AB, while when the lead for either team was 5 or greater, his homer rate was every 16 AB - the opposite direction of Wallner.  I'm not going to invest more time looking at other individuals, but across the majors those rates are 29.4 and 26.8 respectively - not especially different, one from the other.)

His ordinary splits with men on base look reasonable, but it could be that they're inflated by the meaningless situations.  I don't know where to find further splits, of results with men on base versus bases empty, divided into the size of the lead when it happened.  The one useful split b-r.com provides to go to this extra level, is what they term "late & close".  In those very limited situations (and I don't know how they're defined), Wallner hit 1 HR in 33 AB, for a rather high ratio of, well, 33. 

It's dangerous to slice and dice things into small samples, but if those small samples are congruent with what looks like an overall trend, I'm more inclined to consider them. 

My working hypothesis is that Wallner is far more susceptible than most batters, to falling prey to the pitcher's strategy for the game situation.  Which reduces his value far below what the raw numbers would suggest.  I can't recall a player with such extreme splits in this regard - Joey Gallo maybe, although his unfavorable splits were of a different nature.  I want, want, want the coaches to help Wallner figure this out.

16 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

He is still a work in progress. Still makes the minimum. He will go forward from here or backward from here. He may go forward and then backward and the forward again. He might become cost prohibited as he reaches arbitration or he might become Pete Alonso like as he reaches free agency signing a 6 year contract. 

Prediction is hard, especially where it comes to the future.

No one has posted on this thread for a few days and I'm going to bump it up. There are many interesting position battles going on and TBH I don't like the way most of them are going. James Outman and Alan Roden have been strong thus far this spring. The out-of-options Outman may have pushed himself onto the roster and he's not really a good fit unless Buxton needs more time off than he had last year. 

Roden has had his second consecutive good spring and on its merits, he should have a position, but as basically a LH hitting corner guy, he's behind both Larnach and Wallner and also would squeeze Austin Martin out of playing time. Since he has an option, it would seem the Twins would likely send him to St. Paul over losing Outman to a DFA. Coming off a good last third of the '25 season, Martin has shown he has tools lacking in most of the team--speed, contact plus he improved dramatically in the field last year. I think he should get a chance to play every day and keeping either Roden or Outman severly limits that chance.

The utility infield cluster has played out about as expected. Orlando Arcia is a minor league signing almost certainly with an opt-out. He's played multiple positions and has hit acceptably mostly against minor league pitching. Kreidler has plus skills as a defender and can play outfield, but hasn't shown much (in games at least) to convince anyone that he can hit major league pitching. Gray looks like a superior hitter, but hasn't played much shortstop. It would appear that Arcia has the inside track for coming north with the major league team and he has been dreadful since midseason of his All-Star year. Kody Clemens has hit well enough to probably have his spot written in ink on the Opening Day roster, while Eric Wagaman has been more of a utility guy, playing both third base and corner outfield, which could squeeze Austin Martin even further if he makes the club. 

Ryan Jeffers and Victor Caratini are locks to be the catchers, if healthy. Neither has looked that great, but they are veterans with guaranteed spots, "working on things" could be more than an excuse. Alex Jackson hit a homer early, but hasn't hit at all since. It's disappointing because I thought he might hit enough to force a tough decision on keeping him and he's out of options and he has a good defensive skill set. If he starts swinging better, he still could force the Twins to consider carrying three catchers. 

On the pitching side, Justin Topa appears to have pitched himself to the outside looking in. The Twins would hate to eat a major league contract, but it isn't like he's being paid big dollars. As has been covered elsewhere, there are four lefties with a strong case to make the club in the bullpen. Rogers and Banda have major league contracts, so I would expect they are safe. Chafin has a long history of being a pretty good middle inning and lefty specialist. That leaves Funderburk (maddingly) as the odd man out unless the Twins want to carry four left handed relievers. I saw Orze pitch twice, once on TV and once live. He looked outstanding once and walked the bases loaded before and during a thunderstorm, but escaped with no runs. He's probably one of the RH relievers. Sands has looked okay this spring and given his competition for a spot, he likely can get a six-month lease on a condo. The other bullpen spots are not so certain. As mentioned, Topa might be out or at least he has to pitch himself in. DFA pickup Zak Kent hasn't been able to establish himself in the majors, but he looks like he has a good arm and he's under 30 with an option. On another thread, I said I thought one RH bullpen spot would be between Liam Hendriks and Dan Altavilla. Hendriks has had major health issues in the past three years, but in this decade was an All-Star closer. Altavilla has had plenty of injuries as well, but he is throwing mid-to-upper 90s and was successful in about half a season for the bad White Sox last year. The Twins most likely can't send Hendriks to the minors due to his vet status, while Altavila is short of six years of service and could be assigned to St. Paul unless he put an opt-out in his minor league contract. Matt Bowman is both an "old friend" and someone who has been in the majors most of the last two years. His stuff is middling, but he might be able to provide adequate middle inning relief. Non-roster guy Julian Merryweather turned heads with his stuff early, but went down with an injury. He likely gets sent to St. Paul, but I would bet imaginary money that he'll spend considerable time on the Twins'  roster this summer.

Now on to the rotation. Top starters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober would seem to each be at least a week behind, both have made only one Grapefruit League appearance. Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson look like heavy favorites to start in the rotation, although both have put up a poor start followed by a good one. Zebby Matthew and Mitch Abel would be looking for the last spot. Abel has been lights out, including facing major league starters, Zebby got knocked around his last start, but continues to show quality pitches that should qualify for consistent success.

Drumroll please. Predictions for the Opening Day roster (no further injuries). Pitchers--Ryan Ober, Bradley, Abel, Woods Richardson, Matthew (bullpen for now), Orze, Sands, Hendriks, Rogers, Banda, Funderburk, Chafin. Catchers--Jeffers, Caratini. Infield--Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Arcia, Wagaman, Clemens, Outfielders--Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, Outman. Not much that I like for the bench or platoon spots. Matthews sticks as the sixth starting option but in the BP for now and provides innings for short starts from Ober and Ryan. Initally. IL for Festa and Adams.

What I'd like to see: Pitchers--Ryan, Ober, Abel, Woods Richardson, Bradley. Bullpen--Funderburk, Rogers, Chafin, Banda, Matthews, Orze, Sands, Altavilla. Catchers--Jeffers, Caratini, Jackson Infielders--Bell (DH), Clemens, Kreidler (ugh), , Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Outfield--Roden, Martin, Buxton, Wallner. Rationale: Larnach and Wallner along with Bell is at least one too many slow primarily left handed hitters. Larnach has less upside and makes more than Wallner, so he should be the one to go. Keep Jackson if he can hit at all. Neither Jeffers or Caratini has every caught 100 games in a season and it is likely that there will be catcher injuries. The talent in the upper minors is almost non-existent. Eventually Keaschall might transition to another position and maybe it is first base. I'd give him a healthy season before I gave up on him at second, especially since his speed should translate to decent range. I would hope Clemens isn't a full platoon at first, Caratini could carry much of the load. I'd like to see both Martin and Roden get a real opportunity to see if they can be everyday players, or in Roden's case a strong-side platoon. Kreidler makes my team because he is supposedly well above average defensively, including in the outfield and he has to be better than what he put up with the Tigers. Try Zebby and maybe later Festa in late innings with a more limited assortment and max effort. I think Hendriks is done. Great story, but his comeback with the Twins is just a postscript. I am certain there will be a great amount of bullpen shuffle and I hope some live arms emerge. Unless there are real breakthroughs from a bunch of players, this team isn't going to contend. Time to separate the wheat from the chaff.