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After the most successful season in roughly three decades, Rocco Baldelli should have gotten high-profile reinforcements this winter. Carlos Correa was there, Royce Lewis had emerged, and Pablo López looked like an ace. Instead, ownership hamstrung the front office and forced some more needle-threading decisions.
Looking at multiple lineup additions on the open market, there were plenty of exciting names to look at. Who was going to be the 2024 version of Michael A. Taylor? What about a big bat who could play first base? Those were the two most obvious positional holes to fill, and Derek Falvey and company filled them well--just not on the schedule or at the price fans might have expected.
Manuel Margot over Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, or Michael A. Taylor
The organization needed insurance and a complementary piece for Byron Buxton. That player needed to bat right-handed while playing respectable defense. All four of the names listed above realistically fit the bill, but Margot has been the right choice, for myriad reasons.
Both Kiermaier and Bader were paid $10 million by their respective clubs. That would have been too rich for Minnesota, who offered Taylor something like a $4 million salary before pivoting away even from that. Kiermaier was recently designated for assignment by Toronto, after posting just a 53 OPS+. He was great defensively, but the Blue Jays have fallen short of expectations, and they cut bait. Bader has produced a strong 110 OPS+, but his -2 DRS isn’t good. Like Kiermaier, he was never truly a consideration, given the price tag.
Taylor was a fan favorite last year, but he was primed for offensive regression. With a 53 OPS+ (identical to Kiermaier's), he has been as bad as expected. Similarly to Kiermaier, his defense has been great, but the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t exactly a team capable of winning on the fringes.
Then you get to Margot. He hasn’t produced the 94 OPS+ of last season, but his 78 OPS+ is respectable. The hope was that his defense was going to carry him, but that hasn’t been the case. Rarely playing center field, and rated negatively everywhere he's played on defense, he’s been only part of what Minnesota needed. His .788 OPS against lefties plays, and that’s despite carrying a .468 overall OPS into May. He has slashed .282/.339/.409 over his last 45 games, and that makes him an asset. He's just not the one the team thought they were getting.
If the Twins had unlimited funds, then Bader would have been the ideal candidate. They didn’t, though, and avoiding a re-up with Taylor was sensible. Of course, the biggest benefit to the roster as a whole for Minnesota has been the relatively healthy Buxton, who's been ascendant over the last six weeks or so.
Carlos Santana over Rhys Hoskins
Among big-ticket free agents, few looked like a better fit for Minnesota than Hoskins. Milwaukee gave him a player-friendly deal (up to $34 million over two years, with a player option making up half that money) the Twins couldn't and wouldn't match. He was paid well, despite missing the entire 2023 season with an injury. In return, he has posted a 100 OPS+, while being the same negative defender he has been his whole career.
Instead, paying Santana roughly one-third of the freight, Minnesota got a borderline All-Star candidate. Despite starting slowly, Santana has a 112 OPS+, and his defense has been Gold Glove-worthy. His 1.7 fWAR is level with Guardians Josh Naylor atop the American League first base leaderboard, and bests American League All-Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Whereas Buxton's health made Margot a bit less important than expected, the opposite has been true for the player with whom Santana was meant to be a partner in crime. Alex Kirilloff has been both bad and hurt, after entering the season as the primary candidate to get the leftover reps. José Miranda has been incredible at bat, but is shaky defensively, and while Edouard Julien may move positions and play some first eventually, he’s at Triple-A right now. For the money and fit, Santana has been the perfect addition for Minnesota.
It wasn't a perfect winter. No arm was brought in to replace Sonny Gray, if we think of Anthony DeSclafani more as a coincidental acquisition than as a proactive one. Minnesota still needs rotation help, but the financial limitations remain in place. Taking on a contract for a rental seems unlikely, and it doesn’t appear that a big-swing deadline is looming.
If there was a misstep, it was tendering Kyle Farmer a $6.3 million deal. The market clearly wouldn’t have borne that for him, but that's clearer now than it was when they made the choice. The minimal bullpen moves were fine, and didn't move the needle much either way.
Under stifling ownership constraints, the front office has a creditable offseason. They should have done more, but probably couldn't have, without overbalancing a bit in their pursuit of sustainable contention. The organization is in good shape, save for the owners' unacceptable avarice and love of their own billions. Falvey and company deserve as much praise as the Pohlads deserve criticism.
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