MIN 10, TB 6: Twins Prevail Thanks to Big Error

Twins tried to give up an out in a game where no pitchers were succeeding, but TB would have none of it! It's nice to win. Much nicer than not winning.

Boshers has been a good story, but going forward we need better pitchers in these situations and Buddy is not the answer.  Glad we won, but little things are important going forward. 

Watching Boshers come in, nibble out of the zone, (actually, his third pitch was a perfect strike in the very upper inside corner of the zone, and the umpire, as usual, mis-called it as a ball even though he was looking right at it at about eye level in his crouch over the inside shoulder of the catcher) and then after going 3-0, got the count to 3-2 with a couple of good sinkers, but then threw a no movement no sink sinker right down the very middle of the zone at all of 90mph. Blast off.

Hard for me to make excuses for him at all, past present or future. YUK!

At least Pressly didn't blow it up today. He came close, but survived.

He has a career .580ish OPS vs LHB. That's pretty good. Really good, even. If he were perfect against them it would be .000. Point being finding a guy who is substantially better vs LHB is not likely. Andrew Miller has obviously had a much longer career, but his career OPS vs LHB is in the mid .600 range. Jesse Orrosco's career OPS vs LHB was .588, and he's considered one of the best ever.

He has had 50% of inherited runners score and he been sent down repeatedly which indicates that management is not that sold on him either.  For August and September he has given up six runs in six innings - not counting inherited runners.  I am glad you like him, but for me he has passed his point of reliability. 

Boshers is not just a nice story, he's been useful. Unfortunately, he was more useful last season. He's the kind of guy I'd like to keep around, but in AAA for when needed. Really hoping for Enns, Moya or Turley to lay claim to the second LH bullpen spot. Would love Jay, and his early rehab returns have been solid, but he's probably missed too much of the season to be counted on for the beginning of 2018.

Does anyone have stats on Pressly? He's had a couple rough appearances...most relievers do...but since end of June, first of July, didn't I read somewhere that he has been pretty darn good? I'm still encouraged for his role next season.

Boshers is not just a nice story, he's been useful. Unfortunately, he was more useful last season. He's the kind of guy I'd like to keep around, but in AAA for when needed. Really hoping for Enns, Moya or Turley to lay claim to the second LH bullpen spot. Would love Jay, and his early rehab returns have been solid, but he's probably missed too much of the season to be counted on for the beginning of 2018.

Does anyone have stats on Pressly? He's had a couple rough appearances...most relievers do...but since end of June, first of July, didn't I read somewhere that he has been pretty darn good? I'm still encouraged for his role next season.

Here is is game log - http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33072/ryan-pressly he has been very good for August and September.   The problem is that very high percentage of his inherited runners score - http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+RELIEF&group=1&sort=15&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=128 and I cannot break that down by month, but 41% is too much. 

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

 Nice response.  I am still not a Bosher backer, but I appreciate having data to look at. 

I'm not willing to put that ALL on him. Some of it could be Molitor letting him face RHB with runners on. For a specialist like Boshers, the two most important numbers are how he does against LHB and how he does against the first batter he faces (which, in theory should almost always be a LHB). He gave up a homer to a leftie the other day. That's his failure all the way. But, it does happen. Even O'Rourke gave up the one to Granderson last year.

I haven't been able to locate first batter faced data, but I know I have seen it before. It's a very key stat for a reliever. After all, you were brought in to get that guy.

btw, looking at game logs on B-R, one can check monthly inherited runner data. For Boshers: April 1-0, May 0-0, June 7-3, July 2-2, August 6-0, September 4-3. So, he did fine in August. Other than that, not so much.

 Nice response.  I am still not a Bosher backer, but I appreciate having data to look at. 

Here is is game log - http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/33072/ryan-pressly he has been very good for August and September.   The problem is that very high percentage of his inherited runners score - http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/minnesota-twins-team-stats?season=2016&category=PITCHING+RELIEF&group=1&sort=15&time=0&pos=0&qual=0&splitType=128 and I cannot break that down by month, but 41% is too much.

 

I don't think a closer and save numbers should just be dismissed despite a recent trend to do so and focus more on "high leverage" situations. After all, it's still an important function of a complete bullpen. But it does seem to me certain guys, for whatever the reason, do better with inherited runners than others. (I can pretty much guarantee you that ALL RP would prefer to start an inning or come in with no-one on base). When you watch Kintzler take over the role as he did, or the way Belisle has slid in to the role post Kintzler trade, (SSS I know), I have to wonder about Pressly maybe assuming that role next season.

I've got a crazy theory that inherited runners, if they score, should count towards the former and latter pitcher, on a proportional basis.

So if Presley relieves Colón with men on second and third, and both score, for the runner on second, I would give Colón 0.5 runs towards his ERA, and Presley 0.5 towards his. For the runner on third, I would give 0.75 to Colón and 0.25 to Presley.

It's not a perfect system, by many measures...but it's better than the current system, which doesn't make any sense at all.

there are stats that do this already, w/o trying to parse out the earned runs....

Agreed Pressly and his SO stuff should play up in a setup role. And hopefully he can iron out those bouts of inconsistent control. Simply conjecturing that in a closer role like Kintzler was used, now Besisle, coming in to startbthe 9th might mitigate those lapses and make him an effective "finisher" if you will.

Boy, his arm sure plays up though, doesn't it.