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As the 2024 season winds down, Max Kepler's performance on the field was becoming a growing concern for the Twins--and for Kepler himself, as he looks toward free agency after this season. During the season’s opening series, Kepler hit a foul ball off his knee and he’s had a loose body (in essence, a bone chip) floating in the joint since that point. Kepler's decision to continue playing through the pain long ago passed the point of doing more harm than good—not just to the Twins' playoff hopes, but to his own market value.
Knee injuries are notoriously tricky for any athlete, but it's a critical blow for a player like Kepler, who relies on his athleticism and defensive range. The compromised knee has undoubtedly affected his mobility and overall performance. Despite the lingering injury, Kepler and the Twins chose to keep him on the field, until Thursday. As his struggles deepened in all three phases, though, the team realized a move was needed.
One of the most noticeable aspects of Kepler's game this season has been his decreased walk rate. Known earlier in his career for his ability to work counts and draw walks, Kepler's plate discipline has taken a hit. From 2018-2022, Kepler posted a BB% of 10.1% or higher. Last season, he saw a slight dip to 9.2 BB%. In 2024, his walk rate has dropped to a career-low (5.5 BB%), indicating his approach at the plate might be compromised. Whether this is due to the knee injury affecting his lower half and, consequently, his swing mechanics or simply a mental lapse, the result is the same: fewer free passes and more outs. It sounds silly to link the two, but feeling uncertain about one's ability to make certain habitual movements in the box can compromise a hitter's plate discipline. Kepler is hardly the first such case, if indeed that's a contributing factor.
Kepler's power numbers have also seen a significant decline. He ended the 2023 season on a high note, with a .926 OPS in the second half while arguably being the Twins’ top hitter. Kepler's power has all but disappeared in recent months. His 90 OPS+ is the lowest mark of his career, and his .128 ISO is the second-lowest. This trend is alarming for a corner outfielder with a history of showing power potential, especially in a contract year. The knee injury could be playing a role here, as well. Generating power at the plate requires a stable base and the ability to drive through the ball. A torrent of energy has to flow through the swing, and the blocking effect of the front leg is crucial in facilitating that. If Kepler's knee prevents him from getting full extension, it's no surprise that the power numbers are down.
Defensively, Kepler has long been praised for his strong arm and range in the outfield. However, the knee injury has clearly affected his defensive capabilities, too. Once one of baseball’s top defensive right fielders, Kepler's sprint speed has dipped from the 51st percentile last season to the 36th percentile in 2024. He has a negative DRS for the first time in his career.
As Kepler approaches free agency, these struggles could significantly impact his market value. Teams looking for a corner outfielder with power and solid defense might hesitate to invest in a player with declining metrics and an unresolved knee injury. Even if Kepler opts for offseason surgery to address the knee issue, questions about his durability and ability to return to form will linger. Kepler's willingness to play through pain is commendable, but the decision may ultimately cost him. In an offseason where every little detail matters, Kepler's recent performance might lead to a colder market than anticipated.
For the Twins, the situation is bittersweet. Kepler's contributions over the years have been significant, but his recent struggles and looming free agency make it difficult to envision him as part of the team's long-term plans. As the offseason approaches, both Kepler and the Twins will have to make tough decisions about what comes next.
If there's any chance of a reunion between these two parties for next year, it will come because the opportunities now carved out for Michael Helman, DaShawn Keirsey, Austin Martin and others yield nothing encouraging. Obviously, Twins fans should be rooting for one or more of that group to seize their moment, so it's reached the stage where it's not clear whether Kepler will play again in a Twins uniform--or whether he should.
Can a few weeks' rest restore Kepler's health well enough to make him a useful player come October? Should the Twins have shelved him earlier? Join the conversation with a comment below.
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