KC 2, MIN 1: Every Game is the Same Game

One run losses or wins are largely luck. So, this is a fluke....I don't know what people wanted molitor to do differently here, other than tell Buxton to steal.

That's because Molitor has NO clue what he is doing. Simple as that. 
 
8 walkoffs isn't a fluke, its poor in game management. Bunting at the wrong time, changing pitchers at the wrong time, etc

I think there's a bit more to it, but teams that do the little things poorly lose more close games than they win.  That does go back to the manager.  Execution needs to be included in that discussion too though.  

Agreed they're not catching the Yankees. That's a great team.

 

But they can certainly catch the Angels or Mariners. The Angels are top-heavy. An injury to Trout (which seems to happen each year) might sink them. Or Ohtani might hit a wall. And the Mariners lost Cano and have some big holes in the lineup. King Felix isn't King Felix and who knows if Paxton is an ace-light or a guy having a hot two months. Both of those teams are eminently catchable. Especially since they play each other (and the Astros) a ton while the Twins get to play the Tiggers, White Sox and Royals.

Except the Tigers are right there too.  I can't imagine what they're doing is sustainable, but if the Twins are included in this discussion, so too are the Tigers.  They haven't gone away yet, so it's hard to say that they're any sort of pushover if the Twins aren't.

Seattle still seems to be finding ways to win without Cano.  Felix hasn't been Felix all season.  The M's are 8-2 in their last 10.  They're playing pretty good ball and winning the close games the Twins aren't.  

They might be able to catch one of them, but I don't think they'll be able to catch both - which is what they need to do.  If those two are beating each other up, that doesn't really help the Twins.  One of them will always benefit at the expense of the other.  The Twins are 11 games back in the win column already.  I wish that I had your optimism. 

That should even up in the long run though right? Especially since the Twins pen isn't fundamentally flawed in any way?

 

The two of them beating each other up does help the Twins. You want them to split their remaining games against each other while the Twins go on a heater.

Everyone should have my optimism. It's really great up until the moment it comes crashing down. And then it sucks.

It's hardly a guarantee that things will even out in the long run.  Obviously you hope that they do, but there's nothing guaranteeing that it'll happen.  The problem with the law of averages is that "average" moves depending on how good you really are.

They might start winning close games, but they might not.  If they don't start hitting, they won't.  That is also predicated on the pitching holding up. As you've pointed out, bullpen reliability has a lot of variability.  The situation could actually get worse instead of better!  

Seattle could keep winning close games or start losing them.  You'd hope they even out in the long run, but that doesn't always play out.  The Twins have a bigger hole to dig themselves out of for the WC than they do the division.  Either way, they haven't been able to capitalize on Cleveland's early struggles due to poor play.  Hopefully they can overcome that.  Maybe they can, maybe they can't.

All of this is why they play the game though.

The math says they will be about fifty fifty in close games going forward, not that they will win more than they should to, to even it all out...

Logan Morrison over the last 28 days has an .813 OPS & OPS+ of 125.

That number is not that far from his OPS .868 & OPS+ of 135 in 2017.

 

And his May performance is actually well above his career total of .758 OPS & OPS+ of 108.

 

The Twins are more than getting what they paid for in LoMo in May.

Okay - two months - one good, one bad.  Which is accurate?  Will he be in the middle?  

I know this is the theory, but I doubt this is actually true.

 

Of course the math says it'll be 50-50 going forward. You take all the teams that lost more close games than they won, add them to the teams that won more than they lost, average it out, and declare "See...it's all luck. 50-50."

 

There are short term variances, of course, but the idea that better teams wouldn't win more close games than lesser teams doesn't make any sense to me. They're better. Over time, they'll do the things that win games--close games or blowouts--more than bad teams.

Fifty fifty was really short hand for the luck part.... But one run games are more about luck then we think, iirc a few articles correctly, bit it is possible I am not.

I was also talking about how "even out" did Not mean the Twins will win more to even things out....

29 SO in 27.2 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.16 WHIP...

 

If we had seven relievers on the staff who put up those numbers, we'd have one of the best bullpens in MLB.

 

Is anyone else getting worried about Reed and Ryan Pressly's workload? Reed's on pace to appear in 84 games this season and Pressly in 93. I find this more than a bit worrisome.

Sure that stat line. The answer to the rhetorical question. It doesn't include the 3 losses and 2 blown saves, nor the direct failures of the last two outings, but usage is a problem, totally agreed, and when it makes one look good, ERA is always one to pull out of the hat, and when it doesn't, it is best to go with how ERA is a horrible stat and not representative. I will just forget about the last 2 outings, the 3 losses, and get back on the bus.

What do they have to learn in the minors?   It's sink or swim time for both of them.   Both have been dominant in the minors with Buxton slashing .302/.379/.504 and Sano .278/.373/.564.   They don't need to dominate a lower level again.   The only way they get better is by batting against the best possible competition.   Neither of them will get that in AAA.    

I agree with the previous poster.  Both need to go to AAA now.  When you can't even hit .200 you need to go to AAA.  When you swing at every breaking ball because you have no eye at the plate you need to go to AAA to work on that with minor league coaches.  

I heard Dazzle talking when Buck came in to pinch run. Molitor had been asked about the Milwaukee scenario and whether Buxton had the green light and if he wanted him to steal. His answer was, "yes, and yes." Buxton hasn't been caught stealing in a year. He needs to be more aggressive. His speed and effort are electric and carries over to fans and teammates. His struggles likewise drain on everyone. He's becoming timid. That's an issue. He's working through the k's so I expect some sorry of turnaround soon.

Maybe it is the hitting coach that is the problem? Maybe?

Molitor is the manager, but it would seem he would know something about hitting, too.

The solution of "just bunt from now on" won't work, because Buxton's bunting is only going to become a factor if he is also a threat to get regular base hits. He has to fix the hitting thing first, THEN start bunting. If he starts trying to bunt every time, when he fails it's only going to magnify the boogyman in his head that says "I CAN'T DO ANYTHING RIGHT".

 

We just have to let him go up there and take his hacks. I think he's in real danger of being sent down in a week or so if he doesn't produce. It worked last year and I believe Buxton's complete lack of confidence is going to force the Twins' hand yet again unless he does something soon. Quite unfortunate.

I get your reasoning but last year he was in a similar funk except he bunted a lot more and was successful.    The boogyman in his head was held at bay because the bunting worked.    Kind of similar to when Valencia came up in 2010.   He had a lot of infield  and seeing eye hits which I believe got him to relax and he started squaring things up.    Same with Buxton last year.  He wasn't hitting but was getting bunt hits.    Weak pop flies and strikeouts are giving him no chance to use his greatest asset. which is his speed.    He should be bunting once a game when hitting well and more than that when hitting poorly.    Thats just my opinion.   Any one else and maybe I agree with you but he is just so frickin fast you want to give him a chance and put pressure on the defense.   As far as I have seen he is batting .500 bunting (one for two) and his hit was an intentional sacrifice right back to the pitcher that he still beat out.   I'm just mystified that he hasn't used this weapon at all this year.

I get your reasoning but last year he was in a similar funk except he bunted a lot more and was successful.    The boogyman in his head was held at bay because the bunting worked.    Kind of similar to when Valencia came up in 2010.   He had a lot of infield  and seeing eye hits which I believe got him to relax and he started squaring things up.    Same with Buxton last year.  He wasn't hitting but was getting bunt hits.    Weak pop flies and strikeouts are giving him no chance to use his greatest asset. which is his speed.    He should be bunting once a game when hitting well and more than that when hitting poorly.    Thats just my opinion.   Any one else and maybe I agree with you but he is just so frickin fast you want to give him a chance and put pressure on the defense.   As far as I have seen he is batting .500 bunting (one for two) and his hit was an intentional sacrifice right back to the pitcher that he still beat out.   I'm just mystified that he hasn't used this weapon at all this year.

Agreed.  There's no reason that bunting shouldn't be in the arsenal of someone so fast.  I don't think he's as good as he could be with bunting, but I think you're right.  He needs to do something different.  There's no reason why this can't be one of those things.  He does need to get more swinging hits for it to become extremely effective, but you have to start somewhere and if that is what it takes for him to relax and settle in, I'm all for it.  At this point, I think he's pressing and trying too hard.  He's not in the lineup again today, so maybe taking a step back is a good idea.  He seems pretty lost at the plate right now.

Agreed.  There's no reason that bunting shouldn't be in the arsenal of someone so fast.  I don't think he's as good as he could be with bunting, but I think you're right.  He needs to do something different.  There's no reason why this can't be one of those things.  He does need to get more swinging hits for it to become extremely effective, but you have to start somewhere and if that is what it takes for him to relax and settle in, I'm all for it.  At this point, I think he's pressing and trying too hard.  He's not in the lineup again today, so maybe taking a step back is a good idea.  He seems pretty lost at the plate right now.

I'm a big believer in resets.    How many times have the Twins been hot going into the break only to get cold after the layoff.   Works the other way also.    Turn the calendar over and just look at his June stats.   If that doesn't look good then just look at what he does after the all star break.    Maybe its get sent down and then see how good he is after being recalled.     I know major league pitching is better than the minors but its not twice as good.    He is absolutely not as good now as he can be.     Maybe its just getting a couple hits by accident that gets him going.  Every at bat I think, this is the one that turns it around.   I will keep thinking that.