Is the Twins' Austin Martin Ready to Drive?

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

If he's 27 years old and can't make the 26 man roster, the fact he is out of options strikes me as not particularly relevant. I'd expect most 27 year old marginal players to be out of options.  If you lose something of little particular value 'for nothing' there isn't really a loss, in the material sense of the word.

Until Martin gets hurt or fails in his first go and then you're to the guy who would've been even further below. Martin is a marginal player at this point. We can be as excited as we want for him, but it doesn't mean he's guaranteed to ever succeed in the majors. Dropping even marginal players like Gordon to hand completely untested players like Martin opening day jobs is not good roster management. Unless Gordon looks completely lost in spring he's getting the job over Martin.

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Gordon and Balazovic need to stick on the 26 person roster or they can be claimed.

I have put Austin Martin in the lineup batting 9th in a number of iterations for the Twins in 2024. Martin is the one rookie who I hope can make a big contribution next season.

I hope he can come up and claim a starting spot at some point, but I don't at all expect it to be opening day. I think our best hope, as of today with the current 40-man situation, is that Martin is the position player equivalent of Ober in 2023. He has a great spring and everyone is clamoring for him to go north with the big club, but he's sent to AAA as the first guy called when there's an injury. And I think that's probably the best way to manage the roster. 

Then he can be the spark when he comes up and starts slashing the ball all over the field from the 9 hole so Julien and Lewis can drive him in from the top of the order and we can really start seeing the future come into view!

22 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I would agree that as the roster stands right now that Martin would be the first callup in 2024. I would see this being the case even if Martin tears it up in ST, though that could potentially change things. But, do you think the possible trade of Kepler would elevate Martin to an opening day job? Provided he shows himself worthy in ST.

Martin does excite me and intrigue me.

I think a Kepler trade would mean they're handing Larnach a starting job, assuming Kepler is dealt for pitching or prospects and the rest of the 40-man stays as is, and Martin is still the first guy in line. Depending on who's replaced early in 2024, Larnach may actually be ahead of Martin in line for the spot. If Wallner or Kepler are the ones being replaced I'd bet Larnach gets the call before Martin, unless their performances are severely different.

I don't think this regime is really open to handing any rookie who hasn't debuted yet a starting job out of camp. Miranda's 2021 season in the minors was better than anything Martin's ever done, and he wasn't handed a starting job opening day 2022. I actually don't mind that strategy when you're trying to contend. Handing opening day jobs to kids who've never seen a major league pitch is a really big gamble. My problem with their strategy is the end of year rookie usage, not the start of year usage.

Why didn't Miranda get his feet wet at the end of 2021 in a season the team lost 89 games? Why was Jordan Luplow on the Twins September roster last year instead of Martin? I'd like to see them start getting guys who are likely to debut the next season a little taste in September. Especially when the season is either lost, or the division is wrapped up like 2021 and 2023.

28 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Gordon has a 1.4 WAR over almost 700 at bats, he strikes out more than 5 times as many as he walks, he has little power and not a great throwing arm for the outfield. He also had a negative WAR last year - he is the epitome of a marginal MLB player. I don't 'get' why the Twins, if they have a need in centerfield (which is not a natural position for him anyway) can't find the equivalent  at about the same salary. This is not one of those 'in case of emergency break glass' situations.

I'm not arguing that Gordon should, or would, be the opening day CFer. But he'd get a roster spot over Martin if he's on the 40-man on opening day. Martin is an "in case of emergency break glass" situation, too, if he's the opening day CFer. Handing guys who have never seen a major league pitch an opening day job when you're trying to contend is not a move that you make if you can avoid it.

Gordon, Castro, Farmer, and Vazquez are the Twins bench right now. Martin isn't taking any of their jobs on opening day if they're all still around by then. And none of them, including Martin, should be handed the starting CF job if Buxton can't do it. But Martin is below Buxton, Castro, and Gordon because, whether anyone likes it or not, options play a role in who gets jobs. 

I've never been a big Gordon fan. He swings way too much. But his best season at the plate was better than Castro's season last year and everyone seems to love Castro. Castro brings better defense and speed, but some people are talking about him being an option as the opening day CFer. A 111 OPS+ in 136 games (Gordon in 2022) isn't nothing. That's a legit major leaguer, even if he's better served as a utility guy. Just like Jose Miranda's 114 OPS+ in 125 games that year wasn't nothing. Fans are way to year to year on things. Gordon played 34 games last year, and Miranda played 40, but people have decided neither is useful anymore. But they're also set on Lewis, Julien, and Wallner being established despite none of them playing as many games as  Gordon or Miranda did in their successful years.

And for Martin vs Gordon, even outside the options situation with Gordon, there is certainly a case to be made for Gordon. Gordon had an .801 OPS in AAA at the age of 23 in 70 games. Austin Martin at the age of 24 had a .791 OPS in 59 games. And, as mentioned, Gordon had a 111 OPS+ in 136 games in the majors in 2022. I don't care if Gordon is sent packing today, but he's got every bit the resume Martin has. Martin doesn't K like Gordon, but he also has little power and not a great throwing arm for the outfield. And CF isn't a natural position for him either.

21 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Every year is something, and last year for Gordon was horrible. Yes, he had that 114+ OPS in 2022, but the problem with Gordon is he never was that great in the minor leagues either (the difference between he and Miranda). His best OPS in the minors was .801, and the rest were middle .700s and .600s. No power, bad strikeout to walks ratio. It makes 2022 look more like a fluke than a likely recurrence. There's a reason he's 27 and out of options.

But this thread is about Martin and his ability to overtake Gordon and Castro in part. And his best OPS in the minors is .796. My point is that if Gordon's numbers mean we shouldn't trust him then 24 year old Austin Martin who's never put up better numbers than Gordon shouldn't be someone we're saying should be counted on.

4 hours ago, arby58 said:

Except Martin is three years younger and can be expected to improve. He's had three years in the minors - Gordon has had SEVEN. Also, if you total Gordon's various years OPS at AAA, it is less than Martin's last year. I just don't get why you want to ride this dog. If Martin isn't the answer, there is somebody out there better they can pick up who is better than Gordon.

As I said, I don't care if they cut Gordon tomorrow. The point is that if you're so anti-Gordon that you think he's completely useless and you can just grab anyone who's better than him during the season if Martin doesn't work out you shouldn't be projecting Martin to work out in the first place. The only difference between them is their K and BB rates. Certainly a real difference, but the idea that Martin should just be handed an opening day job when he hasn't significantly outperformed the guy you think is completely and utterly replaceable doesn't make sense.

Austin Martin is going to be 25 before next season starts. Sure, that's 3 years younger than Gordon, but it's not like he's on some superstar path. I like him. I absolutely think it's possible that at some point next year he claims a starting spot. I am not fighting for Gordon in the sense that I think he's any sort of answer to the Twins problems. You claimed there was no reason to carry him over Martin to start the season and all I've been trying to do is show that Martin hasn't significantly outperformed Gordon in the minors, Gordon has had a successful MLB season, and it doesn't make sense to expect Martin to be an opening day guy if you think Gordon is useless.

Gordon was brutal in AAA at 22. Then OPS'd .801 there as a 23 year old. OPS'd .774 there as a 25 year old (2020 was his age 24 year) while making his MLB debut. As a 26 year old he OPS'd .743 in the majors. Austin Martin was in AA as a 22 year old. OPS'd .685 in repeating AA as a 23 year old. OPS'd .791 as a 24 year old in AAA. Why would we look at this and think Martin may be the answer on opening day? That's my point. Martin hasn't lit the minors on fire by any means. He's going to debut at the same age after putting up pretty darn similar AAA numbers in his age 24 season as Gordon did in his age 23 season.

I don't want to "ride this dog" in the sense that Gordon should be the opening day CFer. I just don't know why you want to cut him and hand Martin a job when Martin hasn't been better than Gordon to this point of their careers. Neither of them should be the answer to opening day CF. But Gordon is just fine as the 13th guy on the bench who plays sparingly while Martin gets a little more work in AAA before he gets the call for an everyday job as an injury replacement in the majors. That's my point.