Is King Kenta a 2024 Contributor?

Kenta Maeda is turning back the clock since being activated from the IL in late June. Soon to be 36, it's fair to wonder how long it'll last. Could he pitch well enough down the stretch to become a part of the 2024 plans?

In his last year under team control with the Twins, it seemed evident in the offseason and early on that Kenta Maeda was likely in his final season with the Twins. Given how he's looked since being truly healthy, it's becoming fair to wonder whether he could change the Twins' plans.

Through his first four starts since Tommy John surgery, Maeda threw 16 innings and allowed 16 runs. His 19.2% strikeout rate was concerning, and he looked the part of a 35-year-old coming off of a significant injury. The velocity was down even as a pitcher who was never known for his heater, and the command needed to be improved. It appeared to be a deadly combination.

Many believed Maeda's IL trip following his 3-inning, 10-earned-run performance against the Yankees on April 26 was the end of the line. It was a fair assumption, given his age, health, and the Twins' ability to plug in Louie Varland for the remainder of the season. Maeda changed their plans.

Since June 23, when the Twins activated Maeda from the IL, he's been a different pitcher. In his 53.2 innings, he's posted a 2.68 ERA and a dominant 32.2% strikeout rate. His fastball velocity has trended consistently month by month, beginning at 89.5 in April and peaking at 91.4 in August. His fastball was 91.8 in his Cy Young runner-up 2020 season.

Speaking of 2020, his current stretch should be meaningfully compared to that dominant short season. Those 66 innings were enough to elevate Maeda's status in the eyes of many, which is why the 53-plus innings he's thrown on his current dominant stretch shouldn't considered as a small sample. His strikeout rate is almost identical, with the only real difference being a few more walks and being on pace to allow one more homer. Maeda has rediscovered the form that made him a Cy Young runner-up.

The argument, of course, is how long he can keep it up, given his major injury in 2021 and his three years older than that electric shortened season. We can debate how long Maeda can keep this up, but the real debate will happen internally in the Twins front office. 

If Maeda continues anywhere near his current performance, it would be hard not to consider bringing him back in some facet in 2024. A qualifying offer would be surprising, given all the listed concerns and the low innings count he's sure to accrue. That being said, Sonny Gray is sure to depart this offseason. The Twins will still have a rotation, including Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober, but they'll likely pursue at least one more veteran starter, as we've seen in years past. 

The hope is Joe Ryan returns to form down the stretch, but that remains to be seen after the home run issues exploded on him before hitting the IL. Bailey Ober has an injury history of his own. The hope is for Chris Paddack to return to the rotation, but that's still to be determined. Louie Varland deserves a shot, but the Twins chose to go with Maeda over him when healthy earlier this season, and it's paid off. 

Maeda could be the perfect fit for a 2024 Twins rotation, with many pitchers riding the fence. If he finishes strong, the plan could be to bring him back as an Opening Day rotation member. 

It's hard to envision Maeda being a workhorse at 36, and even IL trips for maintenance would create opportunities for younger arms to get their feet wet. If things derail completely in the rotation, he has relief experience the Twins could again try to harness. Maeda would be a better veteran option than the Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy tier they've dipped into in years past. A big multi-year deal is unlikely at his age, but the Twins could get creative with options or incentives, which Maeda is no stranger to in his MLB career.

Maeda is happy in Minnesota, and even with a strong finish, he shouldn't break the bank if he and the Twins agree on a reunion. He may be a near-perfect fit for a 2024 Twins rotation that should have plenty of youth and upside. If Maeda continues his dominance, should the Twins prioritize him this offseason?