How The Twins Could Lose Another 100 Games

It takes a whole lot bad baseball and bad luck to lose over 100 games. Right now, it's hard to imagine the Twins repeating that feat, but nobody was predicting they'd be that bad last season, either. Here are some things that could lead to another 100-loss season for the Twins.

Ervin Santana fails to repeat (like he always does)

When pointing to the unaddressed issue of the pitching staff, most of the Twins hope dealers are quick to point to Santana as if he is some kind of bankable commodity. They'll say things like "well at the top of the rotation we've got Ervin, and we know he'll be solid." Really? Ask Angles fans about the reliability of Santana.

Santana is coming off a great season, but prior to coming to Minnesota he was terribly inconsistent. He appeared to break out in 2008, his fourth season in the majors, by posting a 3.49 ERA. The next year it was at 5.03. He appeared to have another breakout in 2011, finishing that season with a 3.38 ERA. The next year it was 5.16.

The yo-yo nature of Ervin's production continued in 2013 when he came back with another strong performance, posting a 3.24 ERA. Then came two mediocre seasons. He was great last year, but if the pattern continues things don't look good for 2017. He has five seasons in which his ERA+ has been over 105, but he's never done it back-to-back.

Beyond Santana's inconsistent track record, there's also the fact that he turned 34 last month. There are only ten active pitchers who've made more starts than Santana's 343, and that includes free agents Kyle Lohse, Jake Peavy and Bronson Arroyo. Father time will catch up to him eventually.

Jason Castro is a mere mortal

Many of the optimists point to Castro, the only major addition this offseason, as the sole reason to believe the Twins' pitching woes will be fixed. As if he is a magic wand that will somehow mend basically the same pitching staff that gave up 128 more runs than any other American League team.

In my opinion, framing numbers should to be taken with a grain of salt. In order for a catcher to intentionally try to steal strikes, it helps if his pitcher has the command to put a pitch just outside the zone. Does the Houston pitching staff deserve more credit for Castro's impressive framing marks? I think it's certainly possible.

Also, I suspect there may be umpire backlash against catchers who have reputations as plus framers. I do believe strongly that being a good framer is a skill. Castro has that skill, however, the positive impact he can make greatly depends on the guy he's looking at on the mound and the guy behind him calling strikes.

And I know he wasn't brought in for his bat, but Castro has hit .173/.240/.257 (.497 OPS) against lefties over the past two seasons. Travis Wood has a better career OPS (.522) than that. He's a pitcher. Just sayin'.

Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco both look like they should be DHing

We've only seen limited samples of both Sano at third base and Polanco at shortstop in the majors, but things haven't exactly looked promising. Of 39 players to have logged 350 innings at third base last year, Sano ranked 22nd in defensive runs above average. That's not horrendous, but also not great. Using that same threshold, Polanco ranked 35th at shortstop, ahead of only Alexei Ramirez. Ick.

Putting them together could be a complete disaster. Whatever upgrade Castro will be behind the plate may be negated by poor defense on the left side of the infield.

Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins are finished

In 214 1/3 innings pitched between 2015 & '16, Phil Hughes had a 4.83 ERA. He gave up 52 doubles and 40 home runs. Opposing hitters had an .822 OPS against him. He only mustered 5.4 K/9. That's real bad.

After the 2015 All-Star break, Perkins had a 7.32 ERA and gave up seven home runs in just 19 2/3 innings pitched. That's real bad too. Optimists are hoping those ugly numbers came because both were pitching hurt. But the fact remains we haven't seen either Hughes or Perkins healthy or productive for a while now. It's possible we never do.

Brian Dozier regresses (duh)

Dozier hit as many home runs in the second half of 2016 (28) as he had in any previous full season. He's as good of a regression candidate as anybody in baseball. It would be hard to envision some kind of complete collapse from Dozier, but even if he fades back to the player he was pre-2016 it'll hurt this team's chances of getting out of the basement.

If the team lost 100 with Dozier going completely nuts, what could happen if he has a down year?

Max Kepler falls victim to the sophomore slump

Lost in the jubilee of the Dozier homer derby was the fact that Kepler struggled down the stretch. After the break, he hit just .233/.304/.391. We've seen our share of Twins struggle to make adjustments in the majors and it's easy to forget Max hasn't even turned 24 yet. There may be some growing pains ahead.

No, Kepler doesn't have some of the same, obvious contact issues that plagued Danny Santana, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sano, but he also struggled to drive the ball late in the year. He'll need to react to how pitchers will be attacking him.

Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios fail to materialize

That last month of Buxton sure was fun to see, but he didn't do much to solve his biggest issues. He still struck out in over a third of his plate appearances. But at least Buxton had a nice stretch of productive baseball. Of Berrios' 14 starts, there's really not a one that stands out as a strong performance. He was hittable (11.4 H/9) and struggled with control (5.4 BB/9).

Both Buxton, 23, and Berrios, 22, showed us so much in the minors and have impressive prospect pedigrees, but, like Kepler, it's likely they still have some struggles to endure on the road to establishing themselves. I have little doubt all three of those guys will have fine major league careers, but I'm not so sure they all take off in 2017.

And there we have it, my reasons why the Twins could have another 100-loss season in 2017. I'm sure I've overlooked a few other things that could also cripple the team. If you're willing to take a stroll down Negativity Lane, post your nightmare scenarios in the comments.