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The Minnesota Twins have spent much of the 2026 season falling slowly out of the American League playoff picture. Now, one prominent national analyst has offered an assessment that could be even more concerning for the organization’s future. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel recently ranked every team in Major League Baseball based on its current core. The exercise looks at which players are under contract or team control for the next two full seasons, attempting to measure how much talent each organization has around which to build.
McDaniel breaks players into three categories. “To make it easier to see which team has more talent, I split players into three tiers: elite (5ish WAR talent, or perennial All-Stars with MVP chances), plus (3-5ish WAR types) and solid (1.5-3ish WAR, or lower-end starters and valuable role players).”
By that measure, the Twins have one of the worst cores in baseball. Minnesota ranks 29th, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies. Colorado has finished last in McDaniel's rankings for five consecutive seasons. That makes this year's ranking particularly difficult to swallow.
The Twins ranked 18th in 2025, 11th in 2024, 19th in 2023 and 17th in 2022. There's been some fluctuation, but the organization has generally been viewed as having a middle-of-the-pack core. Now, it's nearly at the bottom—at least by this reckoning.
There's No Elite Talent
The most glaring part of McDaniel's assessment is what the Twins don't have. There isn't a single player in Minnesota's current core who qualifies as an elite player. Byron Buxton is the lone player in the Plus category. McDaniel views him as a player capable of providing roughly 3-5 WAR value, but the Twins don't have anyone in the elite tier.
The Solid category is much more crowded. That group includes Taj Bradley, Walker Jenkins, Vahn Lackey, Kaelen Culpepper, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Kody Clemens, Marek Houston, Connor Prielipp, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Royce Lewis, Riley Quick, Hendry Mendez, Khadim Diaw, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Mick Abel and Kendry Rojas. There's certainly talent there. The problem is that most of it is projection.
Jenkins, Culpepper and Keaschall haven't had enough time in the majors to establish themselves as impact players. Lackey, Houston, Quick, Mendez and Diaw are still prospects. Bradley has shown flashes of being a major-league starter, but he has yet to establish himself as a consistent top-of-the-rotation arm.
That's a very different situation than having multiple established stars anchoring an organization. And there's another important omission. Pablo López and Joe Ryan don't qualify, because they're only under team control through 2027. That feels like an important distinction when evaluating the Twins. Both pitchers could be major contributors in the short run, but McDaniel's methodology doesn't allow them to boost Minnesota's ranking beyond that window.
McDaniel does leave some room for optimism. He notes that some players at the top of the Solid tier could move into the Plus category next season. The Twins also could potentially add talent in trades involving López and/or Ryan, giving them an opportunity to reshape the core, rather than simply watching it deteriorate. Still, 29th is 29th.
How I See the Twins' Next Two Seasons
If I were ranking the current Twins based strictly on the value I expect them to provide over the next two seasons, my top five would look like this:
1. Byron Buxton
Buxton is past his peak, but that doesn't mean he's incapable of being an All-Star-caliber contributor. When healthy, Buxton can impact a game as profoundly and in as many ways as anyone else in the organization. His power, speed and defensive ability give him a ceiling that remains higher than almost anyone else in the organization. The obvious question is whether he can stay on the field. That's also the biggest reason why he isn't considered an elite player in McDaniel's ranking—although age is becoming part of that equation, too.
2. Taj Bradley
Bradley is the player I would bet on making the biggest jump over the next two seasons. He has the ingredients to become a borderline All-Star starting pitcher. If his development continues on its current trajectory, he could move from the Solid tier into the Plus category relatively quickly. For a Twins organization desperately searching for foundational pitching, that would be a massive development.
3. Walker Jenkins
The beginning of Jenkins's major-league career hasn't gone exactly as anyone hoped. That's not particularly concerning (yet), though. Jenkins is still very young, and the talent that made him one of baseball's top prospects hasn't disappeared because of a difficult introduction to the majors. There will be adjustments, struggles and growing pains. Eventually, those adjustments should start working in his favor. If Jenkins reaches anything close to his expected ceiling, he could become one of the most important players in Minnesota.
4. Kaelen Culpepper
Culpepper already looks like he belongs at the major-league level. There are prospects who need significant development before they can become everyday players. Culpepper has already shown enough to make it reasonable to expect him to be part of the Twins' long-term plans. His ability to provide value in multiple areas makes him an especially intriguing piece moving forward.
5. Luke Keaschall
Keaschall's path might be a little less conventional. He should settle into a corner outfield spot, where his offensive ability can become the primary driver of his value. If he continues to develop, he should provide above-average production over the next two seasons. He's another player who could force his way from the Solid tier into Plus territory. The Twins need that to happen.
The Problem With a Core Built on Potential
There's nothing inherently wrong with having a young core. In fact, that's exactly what rebuilding organizations are supposed to do. The problem comes when the young players are being asked to carry the organization's future, because there aren't established stars around them. That's where the Twins currently find themselves. Buxton is the lone established Plus player in McDaniel's evaluation. After that, the organization is banking heavily on a collection of young players reaching their potential. Maybe they will.
Jenkins could become a star. Culpepper could become an above-average everyday player. Keaschall could turn into a dangerous offensive weapon. Bradley could emerge as a frontline starter. Rodriguez, Lee, Prielipp, Houston and the other young players could also develop into significant contributors.
But there's a massive difference between having a group of players who could become stars and having a core that has already demonstrated it can produce at that level, or near it. The Twins' previous rankings reflected a healthier balance between established talent and promising young players. The 2026 ranking suggests that balance has disappeared. And that should concern Twins fans.
Where Does Minnesota Go From Here?
The good news is that 29th doesn't mean the Twins are doomed—far from it. This is a young organization with several players who could make significant jumps over the next 12 to 24 months. McDaniel himself points out that some of Minnesota's top Solid players could move into the Plus category next season.
That is the path forward. The Twins need Bradley, Jenkins, Culpepper and Keaschall to outperform their current projections. They need players like Rodriguez and Abel to stay healthy and reach their potential. They need prospects such as Lackey, Houston and Rojas to develop into legitimate major-league pieces.
They need to make smart decisions with the established talent they still have. López and Ryan could provide tremendous value in 2027. They could also become trade chips if the organization decides its best path forward is to continue rebuilding.
That is where the front office has an opportunity to change the perception of this core. A 29th-ranked core today doesn't have to be a 29th-ranked core two years from now. But the Twins need their young players to develop into more than solid contributors. They need stars.
Right now, the biggest problem with Minnesota's core isn't that it lacks talent. It's that almost all of its best talent still comes with a question mark. And after years of watching the Twins hover around the middle of baseball's organizational rankings, dropping to 29th is a pretty clear warning sign. The Twins have some promising pieces. They just don't have enough proven ones.
How should fans feel about the Twins' current core? Who will be the top five contributors to the Twins over the next two seasons? Leave a comment and start the discussion.
Are you optimistic about the Twins right now?
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- mikelink45 and Patzky
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