How Could a Jhoan Duran Extension Take Shape?

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think "all you get is a really expensive reliever" is selling elite closers short.

I think you can turn most 4th starters into elite relievers. The Twins did just that with Varland this summer.

38 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Louie Varland and Jhoan Duran are the same.

Pitcher WAA

Stewart 1.2

Duran 1.0

Pagan 0.8

That's with Duran getting undeserved extra credit for leverage. Pagan actually did a better job preventing runs this season than Duran did. An "elite" reliever is worth maybe half a win more than a solid but not "elite" reliever over the course of a season.

I don't think this is Duran's best season, that is yet to come. He's going to get paid in arbitration so I would recommend they give him the money now to get the discount but I'd still trade him when he gets expensive.

I would honestly be putting him on the market and clean up possibly on a team desperate for a power arm.

I am afraid it's only a matter of time before either his elbow or shoulder explode. 

He also wasn't lights out this year either. With bullpen arms teams would be better to go year to year. 

How could a Jhoan Duran extension take place?

With very little forethought, probably.  I might be missing something, but the Twins have team control for four more years, and relievers who depend on velocity aren't generally the same pitcher after six years.  I was surprised he made it through this year uninjured.  I mean, it's not my money, so I don't care unless it takes away from the Twins signing someone helpful (when he's not).  See where he's at after four years here, and it might make some sense.

Duran was worse this year than last.  It's possible it's a trend.  Why not wait to see?  His BB/9 nearly doubled, and his runs/9 almost doubled, and his FIP increased by 30%.  I would certainly wait a year, probably two, before deciding to guarantee big salaries.

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If your belief is that trading out Duran for Pagan this year leads to the same results, cool. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I think the vast majority of relievers are pretty interchangeable year to year. I think there's a different level, though, and I think Duran is in it. You don't have to agree. You think Pagan and Varland are the same as Duran. I don't. To each their own.

Not the exact same results, but within a win or two. Duran is definitely better than Pagan or Varland but not enough better to make a big difference over 60 innings. Plus, like you said you need a LOT of relievers so the impact of one of those relief pitchers is diluted. It doesn't matter if you have a stud for the 9th inning if you never get to the 9th inning with a lead.

Relief pitching has the highest cost per marginal WAR in free agency. The Twins are a mid-market team. They can't build a team paying retail prices for relievers.

8 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Duran was worse this year than last.  It's possible it's a trend.  Why not wait to see?  His BB/9 nearly doubled, and his runs/9 almost doubled, and his FIP increased by 30%.  I would certainly wait a year, probably two, before deciding to guarantee big salaries.

Buy low, sell high. The time to buy is now.

12 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Louie Varland and Jhoan Duran are the same.

BTW - Varland as a reliever had a 1.50 RA, 12.8 K/9 and 17.00 K/BB ratio in 12 innings. His fastball was in the upper 90s and his breaking stuff improved substantially. He was dominant.

5 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't care about 60 regular season innings, or reliever WAR (completely useless stat). I care about winning playoff games. Emilio Pagan trying to close out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of. Louie Varland closing out a 1 run game in October is not something I want any part of (if they move him to the pen full-time maybe he earns that trust, but not with a month of relief appearances). Duran is "enough better to make a big difference" in the postseason, to me. Plus, we saw Pagan try to close in 2022. It was a very big difference to Duran doing it. Not all relievers are the same. And it can be a very big difference when you have Colome and Pagan blowing save after save.

I'm with you on reliever WAR, it significantly overrates relievers compared to starting pitchers.

Pagan might not be closing out the game, but they're still going to use him (or someone like him) just like the Phillies have had to lean on Jeff Hoffman to get them through close playoff games. Meanwhile 2023 All-Star Craig Kimbrel has been awful.

If paying a premium for 60 regular season innings doesn't make sense, it makes even less sense for 3 postseason innings. The best pitcher is often someone the batter hasn't seen before. The Twins strategy of turning their unused starters (Maeda, Varland, Paddack) into relief help was effective.

8 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You're not going to convince me that building a pen full of Pagan and Varlands is the same as building a pen full of Duran and Haders.

The Twins can't afford the latter and even having Duran didn't help them advance past the 2nd round this year. One relief pitcher cannot carry a team in the postseason, they just don't pitch enough innings to have that kind of impact.

8 hours ago, arby58 said:

Joe Nathan started closing at age 29. Between ages 29 and 39, he had 44, 43, 36, 37, 39, 47, 14 (injured), 37, 43, and 35 saves. I guess he 'was not even close' when he turned 40.
 

No, he wasn't.  He was not even close.

Elite doesn't mean good.  Or even great.  The elite are by definition the best of the best. 

20 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

If your belief is that trading out Duran for Pagan this year leads to the same results, cool. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here. I think the vast majority of relievers are pretty interchangeable year to year. I think there's a different level, though, and I think Duran is in it. You don't have to agree. You think Pagan and Varland are the same as Duran. I don't. To each their own.

Sorry to but in others' debate,  but you are correct. 

As the old adage goes:  there are lies, damnable lies and then statistics.  Any statistic that says that Pagan and Duran are even close to equal pitchers this past season can be put in the same circular file as OPS+ (which says that '23 Gallo was above average!).

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

It does not.  And I'm not going to debate this here, to further dilute the Duran discussion.  But you don't get a free shot like that either.

I checked.

Gallo's 2023 OPS+ is 101 

I am against extending relief pitchers in general, but if Duran and his agent were dumb enough to sign this deal I do it in a heartbeat.

IMO this deal offered is at least 15 million to low side. If I am Duran's agent there is no way I am telling him to sign a deal that takes 3 years of free agency for 40 million.

I know I'm coming late to this but I am firmly convinced that the Twins need to extend Duran this off-season. First and most importantly they can buy out one of his pre-arb seasons where he is basically being robbed of millions of dollars, that gives them more leverage then they will have at any point in the future. The other fact is that he is coming of a down season, which means he will be cheaper than if he puts up a 2022 level campaign at some point in the future. Now if you think, this season is more his norm then maybe you shouldn't extend him, but I am not very convinced by that. We know that velocity and having more than 2 pitches are general indicators of success and Duran has both of those. He isn't some FB only guy (which is his worst pitch funnily enough) who could be finished by one major arm injury.

The reason you need to extend Duran is because you are extremely unlikely to get a pitcher with his caliber of stuff in the future, heck it could be decades before that happens. Also we all know what the high end closers are making in FA and that's not amount of money you want to be spending on a reliever. So it makes sense to lock up an elite reliever for his prime at well below market rate. Yes there is risk involved but if this team is willing to give Buxton 100 mil, then there is no reason not to extend Duran (arguably there is less risk than with Buxton). Also not having to worry about the number 1 in your bullpen for the next 4-7 years is something that any team should want.

As for the actual contract itself I think that's perhaps a more realistic model, but personally I wouldn't do that it like that. Back-loading a deal when he's far more likely to be cooked while paying him basically what he would have made without an extension in his first 2-4 seasons makes no sense at all to me. The incentive for him is that he has guaranteed money but also has that now. I would probably start with 4/5 mil for this season which is massive underpay still for what you're getting even if you think 1 war = 4 (half of FA) he should be making at least 8. So I'd probably do something along the lines of 5, 6, 8, 10, 12.5, 12.5 guaranteed, which works out to 54 mil over 6 seasons, which is fair(ish) to both sides and I think would give Duran serious incentive to sign. I'm sure the actual contract would look different but my overall philosophy would be pay him significantly more than he would make in the first 3 seasons, as to spread it more evenly on the back end when there is more risk of him being washed/cooked from TJ.