Grading Every Trade From The Minnesota Twins' 2026 MLB Trade Deadline

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

There's more than one school of thought about how to contend. Some people believe that unless you can look at your team and see them as being one of the top 5 teams in baseball(others might push it a little further out for the range) then you're not a "contender" and should be looking to the next year at best and further out at worst.

Another school of thought says that any year that you can make it into the playoffs in baseball, you should try and do it, because with the impact of a short series and all the additional randomness that brings you want to get as many bites at the playoff apple as you can find.

If you buy into the first, then the twins should have sold off all their expiring vets this year and at least some of their highest value players who won't be here in 2028 and said goodnight to the season (absent a miracle run from maybe a bunch of prospects that could be called up to fill out the roster and audition for 2027).

If you're in on the second, then this trade deadline was a reasonable move to try and make it into the playoffs this season without hamstringing 2027 and beyond. They shored up their biggest weaknesses, they didn't move any of their top prospects, and the guys they did send out were either very marginal or likely far away from making an impact.

It sounds like to me your definition of "contending for WS title" is closer to a Bucket 1 approach...so yeah. This is a failure to you. Others will disagree?

They're also trying to sell baseball as a product in MN. A "trust the process" approach where they sell off assets again for a team that is functionally in the playoff hunt (regardless of what you think their chances of winning it all this year are or not, they have a legit chance to be in the playoffs this year, presuming they don't sh!t the bed in August) wrecks things for the rest of the season and probably torpedoes all lot of fan enthusiasm (and ticket sales) for next year too.

You're correct: none of these players will probably be with the Twins after '27, and it's unlikely Ryan and Jeffers will either. (Jeffers almost for sure, Ryan...getting a little more interesting with him tanking the second half AGAIN, but who knows) Of course, none of the players they sent out were all that likely to be with the Twins MLB club after 2027 either: Amick is a longshot, Klein is unimpressive and unlikely to improve much at this point, and all the others are far enough away that pretending they're on the twins by 2028 is just guessing.

Clearly, you were just out on this team going into the trade deadline. If you're someone that wants the Twins to make the playoffs as many time as possible, you're probably ok with these moves that add to those odds and don't substantively harm the team for next year (and potentially improve them)

Thank you for the response.  Truly.

I’m as pleased and excited as anyone about the success the team has had this season.  I watch every game and respect the effort and camaraderie exhibited by the players and coaches.

I disagree that all the players we gave away in the traded would never be on the Twins.  Think about how many times we could say that about current and former Twins who never looked like making it early in their minor league careers.

Ryan (from last year’s deadline through this year’s ASG) has been at peak trade value.  What we turned down for him last year from the Bosox  (a LH starter currently outperforming Ryan and a consensus top 7 SS prospect) isn’t even in the same zip code as to what we might get now.   Jeffers had to be at peak value this very week.  Now we are looking at best at a comp pick for him.

Just my opinion, but that is not good roster management for a small market franchise like the Twins who clearly are looking to create a true window (and justifiably so) in ‘28 post the impending lockout.

Yes, I’m skeptical that this team can make the playoffs this year. I’m even more skeptical that they will win a series.  Agree, not too much damage was done to our future from the trades (more damage was done by keeping Ryan and Jeffers).  But it will be fun to watch how the rest of the season unfolds.  I’m looking forward to it. Who knows given how well they have outperformed already, right?  It’s just not the cost-benefit conclusion I would’ve thought prudent unless there were other considerations involved.

Which leads to your very excellent point and the true crux of the matter.  TP, et al, bought some excellent goodwill from the media and the fans with these manoeuvres.  Surely that has some benefit to the overall franchise. A few more seats in chairs can’t hurt.  It may certainly, from a PR perspective, keep the hounds at bay, particularly if the team can stay in the race into the fall. Those things undoubtedly have value. But at what expense?

The moves (or lack thereof) were a calculated, but neither all-in or all-out risk.  But it cannot be said that the team’s prospects post ‘27 are now improved.  That is when the true opportunity to put a contender on the field begins. And for many of us fans, competing for a WS is really all that matters. If these trades or keeping Ryan and Jeffers prevent even one or two better starters from being on the team at that point, then the cost may not be worth it.

It's hard for me to give a grade on the deadline moves without knowing if or how much of a 2027 season there will be...

With all or let's say 100+ games in 2027..B maybe B-

With no or less the 1/2 the games in 2027..C to D+

These includes what they may have gotten for Jeffers and Larnach.

Getting Money and another year of control with Kremer and Hoffman is big to me.

The Twin's window hasn't even opened yet. Next season if might.

Looked to me like Pohlad was trying to make it look like he was adding for the sake of winning, but in all reality, when you look at what he added, it was just more pretending to be a contender. Kremer isn't going to be an improvement over anyone that was already starting, his ERA proves that. Minter and Hoffman are additions that won't affect a game UNLESS the Twins have a lead going into the final innnings and they are available to pitch, which won't be every game, such is the life of a reliever. The overall effects of adding these 3 pitchers will be minimal and it won't be enough to matter. Grade D.

51 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think you can assume anything other than 2027 is played completely and the CBA has no changes. Owners might have a little more insight into things, but as regular folks on the street, not a clue.

In reality, I think the owners will break the union on the salary cap. The salary cap will also come with a salary floor and a 100% rev share because it has to. If that happens, the Twins can expect they'll need to expand payroll to $175MM+ next year and teams like the Dodgers will be forced to trade assets off. But will what I think will happen actually happen? No real idea.

I think it's highly unlikely that there is a salary cap. A salary floor, I can see with a big TV network. Spreading the wealth. It'll cost us fans much more to have but be unlimited. That'll likely cost the union at least an international draft. Maybe, but IMO unlikely, the owners will give up qualifying offers for a type of contact structure the gives the teams a free agent comes from an edge in years or dollars attached to the salary floor. Something like the NBA uses. Maybe even harsher penalties for the over tax moneys. To set the table for an actual salary cap

If in the unlikely hood some of that happens, I think the Twins did well at the trade deadline.

Quote: Minnesota checked every major box on its deadline wish list, but what did it cost? Here's how each move stacks up. :Unquote.

I don't know if the Twins had a box for clean-up or power hitter, but they should have. You can't count on Buxton to be healthy, and he swings at too much outside balls anyway. The Twins batters have surpassed expectations, and that likely will not continue to the end of the season. 

One miss is that the Twins will get nothing for Jeffers, and still won't make the playoffs. If I'm wrong and he stays, that would be good.

People keep repeating that these type of moves should have been made during the off-season, which obviously would have helped. 

However, we didnt really have a normal off-season. Falvey had a different direction he was going with the team. He left right before spring training. He left due to difference of opinion on what the team was trying to do. By the time he was gone and Tom/Zoll were calling the shots, it was far too late to sign anyone decent. Pretty much anyone worth signing was already gone. 

Tom seems to be on a mission to show hes going to do what he says. He started a little at the deadline to get a few new arms. He has stated he is going to add more this coming off-season. I said earlier in the year and I'll say again, due to the poor timing of all the changes, Im giving him until next season before I judge. 

4 minutes ago, LastOnePicked said:

Here's the only problem, though: Tom Pohlad and the Pohlad family were the causes of the "poor timing." This wasn't a fluke or a glitch in the offseason schedule.

This is true. 100%. 

But I also don't know what happened behind the scenes that led up to the changes. It seems to me Falvey and Tom maybe tried to work together for a bit. After a while realized they weren't on the same page and by that point it was too late to fix it. 

Maybe I'm wrong. I'd believe it possibly could've been prevented. Was Joe fighting back about being replaced by Tom and that dragged it out? Did Joe and Falvey have the same direction for the team in mind and suddenly Tom steps in and chamges things? A lot of questions without answers. Cant change what happened or when it happened, though. I would imagine the Pohlads would've preferred the entire process had gone a bit more smoothly. 

Whether they were the cause or not, the timing was still absolutely dreadful. Hopefully, for once, what we're told is whats going to happen. 

16 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

My guess is Kremer is our 2nd best starter the remainder of the year.   

Actually, that is quite likely to happen.

11 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

If they are spending MORE MONEY next year, they could sign a pitcher better than Kremer, and then deal for a younger pitcher or one they want to sign to an extension using this guy and another.....not a guy who will be 31 and only here for 1 year. 

It's looking like next year may not even happen. 

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

I don't think you can assume anything other than 2027 is played completely and the CBA has no changes. Owners might have a little more insight into things, but as regular folks on the street, not a clue.

In reality, I think the owners will break the union on the salary cap. The salary cap will also come with a salary floor and a 100% rev share because it has to. If that happens, the Twins can expect they'll need to expand payroll to $175MM+ next year and teams like the Dodgers will be forced to trade assets off. But will what I think will happen actually happen? No real idea.

I agree, None of us common folk have any true insight as what is going to happen. But at this point I am very pessimistic there will be a complete season, or even a partial on