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The Twins came into this season with modest expectations. Most projection systems had them just above .500, finishing first or second in a lousy division. So far, the Twins lead the division but have failed to break away from the .500 mark and risk falling behind Cleveland, who's just as uninspiring. It's time for the Twins to make two changes.
1. Swap Matt Wallner for Max Kepler
While the manager, coaches, and front office draw plenty of ire, the players have not performed so far. Max Kepler represents that poor performance more than any other Twin.
Kepler broke out with the Twins in 2019, and many fans believed he'd be a key player for years. Many even believed he had a chance to break out further into one of the game's premier players. The opposite has happened.
Kepler has gotten worse every season. He was above average offensively in 2020 but dipped below in 2021 and 2022. Now he's reached new lows. His wRC+ sits at 91 going into play on 6/27- meaning he's 9% below average as a hitter. That is untenable for a right fielder in this offense. Thinking Kepler needs to go is hardly an original thought, but it is well past time for the Twins to move on from Kepler - and analysts and fans will continue to say it until he's gone. Over 1,000 at-bats from 2021-23 show he will not get better in Minnesota.
While there's the scary possibility of him hitting bombs for the Yankees or another contender in October or something like that, the Twins need to find a trade partner or DFA Max Kepler because he is a waste of a roster spot, blocking higher upside players- especially Matt Wallner.
Wallner is the first name that comes to mind when looking for an offensive jolt from the minors, and he can replace Kepler in right field. Wallner raked at the major league level, posting a remarkable and unsustainable 216 wRC+, but he was sent down when Joey Gallo returned from an injury.
Since his demotion, Wallner has continued to terrorize AAA pitching, as he's done since last season. It is ridiculously frustrating for all involved with the Twins to watch him do this without getting the opportunity to help the major league club. He's the two-time Twins minor league player of the year, yet he's not getting the opportunities he earned in the majors and at AAA.
He has a knack for striking out but has hit overall at every level. With the strikeouts come a solid walk rate and massive power that the Twins need. Bringing Wallner back could help wake up a sleepy offense. If the Twins are running a team on merit, it's clear Wallner should be playing right field, not Max Kepler.
2. Fire Hitting Coach David Popkins
While shuffling the players is one way to make a change, the problems with this team may go beyond individual players. With so much underperformance on the offensive side of the ball, the young hitting coach seems like the obvious first person to go if the Twins shake things up.
It was surprising when the Twins tapped David Popkins as the hitting coach going into 2021 when he was about to turn 32. He had never been above high-A as a hitting coach, so making him the hitting coach of a major league club indicated the Twins management saw something special in Popkins. After almost one and a half seasons of inconsistency on that side of the ball, he isn't having much success.
Ken Rosenthal indicated on the Athletic on June 16th that the Twins will not fire Popkins- despite the team's struggles offensively. That decision is odd. Star players aren't hitting, and role players like Christian Vazquez and Max Kepler are having career-worst seasons. A change must be made when nobody is hitting- even if there is some risk that it worsens things.
In his scathing story on the Twins' offense on June 21st, Rosenthal called out the Twins' refusal to cut bait with Max Kepler and David Popkins. He mentions that they still believe Kepler has an upside, but as mentioned earlier, there's no evidence that is true. He indicated that the Twins have no plans to let go of either Kepler or Popkins. Allowing them to toil without results is absurd as the division slips away. Will the Twin's leadership finally see the obvious and make the obvious changes?
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