Early Report on Eddie Rosario's Plate Discipline

He has been slightly better this year but still so bad that pitchers are going to abuse him. I have only seen one well stuck ball this year. That was the HR against the cardinals and the pitcher missed his spot by 18 inches and left it right where Rosario likes it.  It has still been very rare to see Rosario get anything decent to hit because he is either unable or unwilling to make pitchers throw him anything that gets much of the plate.

 

The league has adjusted. He was fantastic the 2nd half of 2017 and the 1st half of 2018. He was so great opposing pitchers pitched him very careful. They learned there was no need to give him much to hit and that he would chase wildly with 2 strikes. Now, everyone knows they can get him to swing at anything close in pretty much any quadrant of the zone. That's just too much for anyone to cover. The only difference I see this year is that he is not chasing the stuff that is way out of the zone. He will need to improve his approach significantly beyond what we have seen so far if he is every going to get back to anything near the last half of 2017 / 1st half of 2018. I would rotate between Rosario and Cave until one of them wins the job.

 

 

You close by asking if Eddie will end up being "the same ole Eddie?"

 

Well, if that is the downside I'll take it and be damn happy. If he closes out the 2020 season with the prorated equivalent of last year's 100+ RBI and 30+ home runs, I will be more than happy. More important, I suspect Rocco and the Twins FO will also be more than happy.

 

If he gets a bit more disciplined, fantastic. If he doesn't and continues to be the Eddie I love, also fantastic. Let's let Eddie be Eddie!

 

The takeaway there is that Eddie Rosario worked a 3-2 count against Shane Bieber.

 

He did not "work" the count. Bieber missed badly twice with two pitches that never looked like they had a chance at being anywhere near the strike zone.

He drives me crazy. Swing or don't. Those half-fast bat flicks with two strikes produce next to nothing.

I don't think Eddie is controversial at all. He's just one of the more obvious trade candidates and we, as fans, want to obsess about what-if scenarios and pretend GM scenarios.

 

He's an above average player who hits in the middle of the lineup. We're lucky to have him.

 

Sometimes his weakness is his aggression. Sometimes it's his stength. Hopefully he'll find a way to balance the two as he matures as a hitter, because it will definitely impact his career longevity once he's on the other side of 30.

 

Let's not forget one critical fact - Eddie Rosario is the best hitting Outfielder on the Twins and has been in each of the last 3 years. He was in 2017, he was in 2018, and he was in 2019. I know we'd like to see him get better but let's not forget that crucial fact. There is great love for Kepler on this site for reasons that frankly escape me - excellent fielder but he's had one solid year at the plate in the last 3 years, no good ones, and 2 less than average OF years - but that love is his potential, not his present reality. This team needs Rosario to be an everyday player and we need him to hit if the team is going to be successful.

Your stats are definitely off in 2019. Kepler had significantly better on base, OPS, and OPS+, along with 20 more points of slugging. I think you might want to take another look at their stats from last year.

 

Kepler's batting line last year was better than Rosario has ever had in his entire career. If that's "one solid year and no good ones," I think you might be putting the conclusion before the evidence.

Some context is needed for “swinging out of the zone,” and what that means. Is that ball bouncing in the dirt or a foot outside? Or a half inch outside of the zone. How many of those swings outside the zone produced hits relative to some other players. Maybe X player is swinging at X number fewer pitches outside of the zone, but it’s producing C fewer hits, OPS, more Ks, etc.

 

I’m not sure looking at 42% in 5 games vs 42% over 162 given all of the possible variables is even a remotely reliable way to definitively say, “See, Eddie lied.”

 

You have umps that call strikes outside of the zone, forcing players to chase a little (again, 5-6 games).

 

Was the swing outside the zone with zero strikes, and in an area the hitter can handle? Or, a two strike flailing swing.

 

For example, Eddie hit a home run against the cards on a ball just off the plate inside. That’s not a negative outcome. That’s a better outcome than letting it go and rolling over something down and away. How many of those are built into Eddie’s 42% historically vs. some other random with a 32%.

 

At the end of the day, I don’t really care as long he’s hitting .280 with 30+ bombas. Seems like people have forgotten....that’s pretty good. Especially for a guy probably batting 6th-7th in the lineup most nights.

 

 

Overall, my concern is that we have a guy who has had an .800 OPS or higher each of the last 3 years since he's become a starter and we seem to focus more on his chase rate and walk rate than his accomplishments. Let's not try to "fix" him if the fix causes his overall game to suffer. 

 

This I agree with. However, it's hard to know whether an attempted fix would improve or deteriorate his game until he tries it. I'm generally of the opinion that he's not maximizing his abilities at the moment, and with some tweaks, he'd be a more formidable hitter, and less frustrating to watch. (That last one may just be me.)

To me, Rosario looks like he is going to the plate for some PAs with an active, "don't swing" approach. He is not looking for a strike to do damage on and spitting on pitches outside the zone, he is just looking to take pitches.

That's not really being disciplined. He needs to be identifying pitches as balls or strikes and, as Doug Latta says, deciding to NOT swing at balls. That is not what seems to be happening.

 

This is probably better than him just swinging at everything every time. It may force pitchers to throw more strikes once the word is out. It may just mean pitchers begin to fish with their first pitch of a PA to see which approach Eddie has chosen to use this time up and then pitch accordingly. 

And maybe he actually develops better strike zone judgment by seeing more pitches per plate appearance and eventually learning what he should and should not be swinging at and this is just the first necessary step down that road. I'm hopeful.

Seriously:

 

If a man does not keep pace with his companions, perhaps it is because he hears a different drummer. Let him step to the music which he hears, however measured or far away. It is not important that he should mature as soon as an apple-tree or an oak. Shall he turn his spring into summer?

—Henry David Thoreau

Your stats are definitely off in 2019. Kepler had significantly better on base, , and If that's "one solid year and no good ones," I think you might be putting the conclusion before the evidence.

Well thank you for the stats, but here are the facts. Eddie Rosario has played like an All Star since 2017 and especiallyecia

Your stats are definitely off in 2019. Kepler had significantly better on base, OPS, and OPS+, along with 20 more points of slugging. I think you might want to take another look at their stats from last year.

 

Kepler's batting line last year was better than Rosario has ever had in his entire career. If that's "one solid year and no good ones," I think you might be putting the conclusion before the evidence.

Why do we need statistical evidence? What I have seen is Eddie Rosario playing like an All Star since 2017. If you dont like him that is your right of course. You can show us all the stats you want but the facts are he has played like an All Star since 2017 and he got shafted royally in 2018 in my opinion when he and Escobar were basically the only bright spots. Go back and look at the depth chart and tell me who should start in left field. Cave...NOT.. Wade... NOT..I am a Twins FAN. And I Love Eddie Rosario. How can anybody call themselves a fan and not love him. Maybe you could go write for the White Sox? Never mind Im not sure how many of them can read. (Pun)