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    Defensive Reactions

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Under newly installed leadership, the Minnesota Twins haven't been particularly active on the player acquisition front this offseason.

    What moves they have made, though, have carried a distinct pattern. In efforts to cut down on an obscene 889 runs allowed, the Twins are emphasizing defense.

    Image courtesy of Matt Marton, USA Today

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    It started with Jason Castro, who netted a $25 million contract as a free agent despite a sub-.700 career OPS. The former Astro generated significant demand due largely to his receiving and framing capabilities. His upgrade behind the plate over Kurt Suzuki – whose $1.5 million deal with the last-place Braves, despite posting a better OPS than Castro in 2016, reflects the league's opinion of his defensive impact – is tough to overstate.

    It's the biggest splash the Twins have made, but hardly their only effort to incrementally supplement a fielding unit that last year converted balls into outs at the league's worst rate.

    Castro will likely be backed up – at least initially – by Chris Gimenez, a glove-first veteran backstop. He was brought in on a minor league contract with a spring invite, as was outfielder J.B. Shuck, another defensive specialist.

    As another example, when the Twins opened negotiations with the Dodgers, they were reportedly targeting Cody Bellinger, who some believe "could be elite" with the mitt at first base. Of course, those trade talks fell through, leaving the club stuck with a grossly overmatched Jorge Polanco at shortstop. On Monday, the front office made a move to create a contingency for this potentially grave weakness.

    The Twins claimed 27-year-old infielder Ehire Adrianza off waivers from Milwaukee. In order to make room, they designated right-hander Pat Light for assignment, meaning they may lose the asset they acquired only six months ago when they traded Fernando Abad.

    Despite his .605 OPS in 331 big-league plate appearances – all with San Francisco – it isn't hard to see why Minnesota would take a liking to Adrianza. A majority of his 650 defensive innings with the Giants came at shortstop, where he rated extremely well. (His UZR/150, albeit in a VERY small sample size, is in Andrelton Simmons territory for whatever that's worth.)

    Given what we saw from Polanco and Eduardo Escobar at the position last year, Adrianza may now be the only legitimate MLB shortstop on the 40-man roster aside from Engelb Vielma, the light-hitting 22-year-old with less than 100 games of experience above Single-A.

    Don't discount the possibility of this new addition becoming a dark horse contender for the starting shortstop gig. If he outshines Polanco and Escobar enough in the field, the Twins may decide they can live with his offensive shortcomings at the bottom of a lineup that could realistically feature above-average production everywhere else.

    With the way things played out in 2016, sacrificing defense for offense at one of the most crucial positions on the field is far from ideal, and there's no doubt the head decision-makers recognize this.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Guest

    Guest

  • Guests

    • Posted

    Umpiring has improved since pitch framing became a thing. It shows an umpire's tendencies just as much as it shows a catcher's. The crappier umpires don't like pitch framing one bit, but many of them have gotten better because of it.

    If I were an ump and something showed my weaknesses to my peers, my boss and millions of strangers, I'd work hard to eliminate those weaknesses. Umpires likely have their own video reviews and training programs. They may even have their own internal statistics about who is good and not as good at calling balls and strikes. Expecting pitch framing to remain a static skill assumes that umpires can't or won't improve. It also assumes that the league won't change the strike zone, which raises other issues about the sustainability of the skill.

    GP830

    GP830 785

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Maybe he is. We literally have no idea. Other than him playing 2B in winter leagues (not his choice, the mgr decides that). *

     

    *note, I think we are talking about Polanco, it's all a blur now! :)

    Haha yes, it's true. And yes, Polanco. Thanks for the discourse!  :jump:

    Edited by GP830
    d-mac

    d-mac 1,252

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Yes, most of his $25M is for pitch framing, plus the hope that he can be a strong offensive player if he bats only against RHP. His blocking and throwing skills are just OK and his overall DRS was only 3.4 better than Suzuki in 2016. The big difference between them is that Castro was 24 runs better in pitch framing. So, yes, he got a $25M deal for pitch framing (and possibly the urgency of new management).

    BTW, it's been years since his average was above .230, even though he was playing half his games in Minute Maid, where he's hit most of his homers the last three years.

     

    Batting average? This is 2017, son! Castro beats Suzuki in wRC+ in both '15 and '16 with 79 and 88 to 'Zuke's 65 and 86. Castro is not going to set the world on fire by any stretch of the imagination, but he's hardly a downgrade from Suzuki with the bat.

     

    And DRS, UZR, etc are all not great evaluators of catcher defense. Baseball Prospectus had a great all encompassing tool for catcher defense which includes catcher framing, but sadly it seems to have gone behind their paywall. When it was accessible Castro was rated as one of the best regular catchers at framing and about average and throwing out runners and blocking pitchers. Suzuki was one of the worst framers and one of the best at blocking pitches and slightly below average with throwing out runners. Centeno was one of the worst at everything. Castro+ Murphy or Castro+ Gimmenez will be a HUGE upgrade defensively over Suzuki+Centeno. According to Statcorner's catcher report that's a 34.5 to 36.1 run swing in defense on framing alone (depending on Castro's backup). Assuming those runs are all earned, that's a 0.22 reduction in staff ERA without even changing any of the pitchers. 

    Brock Beauchamp

    Brock Beauchamp 44,051

  • Site Manager

    • Posted

     

    It is reasonable to expect the league to push umpires to improve their ability to correctly call balls and strikes, regardless of catcher action, because it is now a prominent issue. The question is whether umpires are capable of improvement. If umpires do improve, the value of pitch framing will decrease.

    Fair enough, that's true.

    Doomtints

    Doomtints 2,816

  • Verified Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Batting average? This is 2017, son! Castro beats Suzuki in wRC+ in both '15 and '16 with 79 and 88 to 'Zuke's 65 and 86. Castro is not going to set the world on fire by any stretch of the imagination, but he's hardly a downgrade from Suzuki with the bat.

     

    And DRS, UZR, etc are all not great evaluators of catcher defense. Baseball Prospectus had a great all encompassing tool for catcher defense which includes catcher framing, but sadly it seems to have gone behind their paywall. When it was accessible Castro was rated as one of the best regular catchers at framing and about average and throwing out runners and blocking pitchers. Suzuki was one of the worst framers and one of the best at blocking pitches and slightly below average with throwing out runners. Centeno was one of the worst at everything. Castro+ Murphy or Castro+ Gimmenez will be a HUGE upgrade defensively over Suzuki+Centeno. According to Statcorner's catcher report that's a 34.5 to 36.1 run swing in defense on framing alone (depending on Castro's backup). Assuming those runs are all earned, that's a 0.22 reduction in staff ERA without even changing any of the pitchers. 

     

    Looking at BP's metrics on Castro, they show him as below average for throwing and blocking, which is confirmed by the metrics you'll find anywhere else.  For 2016, they show him as having saved 17 runs (a career high) with his pitch framing which I don't think would amount to 0.22 ERA among the whole staff -- perhaps 0.02.

     

    Comparing to Suzuki, Castro is a huge drop off for blocking but otherwise he is an improvement. So as long as Berrios, May, etc., can find the strike zone this year, Castro will be an upgrade defensively. Neither of them are good at throwing, but Castro is better.

     

    I would call Suzuki the "safer" catcher, good to pair up with a wild pitcher. Castro is the guy you want paired with your top starters. He can get that extra strike out of an umpire if the umpire is already liking who is on the mound. With the current Twins pitching situation I'm not sold on Castro being the answer.

     

    As for his bat, Castro has more potential than Suzuki, but at the end of the day the results from the both of them are a bit even with Castro being good at some things and Suzuki being equally good at other things. Castro could have a break out year though. Suzuki's break out year is behind him.

    Edited by Doomtints
    d-mac

    d-mac 1,252

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    Looking at BP's metrics on Castro, they show him as below average for throwing and blocking, which is confirmed by the metrics you'll find anywhere else.  For 2016, they show him as having saved 17 runs (a career high) with his pitch framing which I don't think would amount to 0.22 ERA among the whole staff -- perhaps 0.02.

     

    Comparing to Suzuki, Castro is a huge drop off for blocking but otherwise he is an improvement. So as long as Berrios, May, etc., can find the strike zone this year, Castro will be an upgrade defensively. Neither of them are good at throwing, but Castro is better.

     

    I would call Suzuki the "safer" catcher, good to pair up with a wild pitcher. Castro is the guy you want paired with your top starters. He can get that extra strike out of an umpire if the umpire is already liking who is on the mound.

     

    As for his bat, Castro has more potential than Suzuki, bat at the end of the day they results from the both of them are a bit even. Castro could have a break out year though. Suzuki's break out year is behind him.

     

    A 35 run swing is absolutely a 0.22 ERA swing based on the Twins' 1,443 staff IP last year. ([816ER- 35]/1443IP)*9= 4.87. 5.09-4.87= 0.22. I used stat corner's catch framing metric to get the 35 run swing. Castro was at +12.8 RAA, Gimmenz +1.2, Murphy -0.2, Suzuki -5.0, Centeno -16.9. 

    Lee-The-Twins-Fan

    Lee-The-Twins-Fan 261

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    I just hope this isn't actually Defensive Over-reactions.

     

    I'm fine with Castro, but it's not like he's on a team friendly deal. Adrianza? Ugh, OK I guess, but again he doesn't look like he can hit, neither can Drew Stubbs. I understand this team needed to improve defensively, but I don't think it's wise if this team commits to 4-5 of their 12 batters being offensive black holes. In the case of Adrianza and Stubbs, even if they make the team, they're unlikely to start. Their glove doesn't do the team nearly as much good on the bench.

     

    This is starting to look like an overcorrection to me, like the when the Twins finally realized they needed to stop prioritizing control over velocity in the draft and then went out and drafted a dozen hard throwing relief pitchers.

    Take a look at this video clip - career highlights of Adrianza

     

    DJSim22

    DJSim22 317

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

     

    Did he move off of SS, because of arm strength or range? If he didn't have the arm for SS I don't think you can move him to 3B.

     

    The throw from 3B is often shorter than at SS and of course you have more time than at SS.  I wouldn't be too worried about Dozier throwing a ball from 3B.  The reaction time is more of a concern. 

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,807

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I am suspicious about pitch framing overall but in an attempt to stay open minded... I will say this:

     

    The Good Framers appear to be Good Framers year after year. So... the skill sure seems to show some consistency. 

     

    However...  in an attempt to stay closed minded. I still contend that if Pitch Framing truly saves enough runs to pay millions for the elite. You would see correlations between pitch framing and CERA and I don't really see those correlations. 

     

    In the end... Falvey/Lavine have my support and they obviously buy into the value of pitch framing and I won't stand here and say they are wrong.

     

    In a Q&A with Rand of the Trib back in November. Thad Levine stated that he felt the Twins were a little behind in the resources provided to the staff. He mentioned that the first step would be in systems and resources and the 2nd step would be evaluation after everyone has been provided with those resources and tools. He was talking about the staff at the time but the pitching staff also need the advantage of improved resources before being evaluated.

     

    For the pitching staff... Castro is a tool. 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    USAFChief

    USAFChief 78,887

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    You want to be careful about tilting playing time too far to glove specialists, or you end up like Seattle a few years ago, when they focused on getting good fielders like Franklin Gutierrez to support Ichiro, King Felix and the rest of a pretty good pitching staff. Felix won Cy Young in 2010, but the team lost 100+ that year and lost 95 in 2011.

    If improving SS is really that important, it would have been better to pay up to get someone like Zack Cozart, who at least carries a passable stick to go with good defense, like another poster was pushing a few months ago, than to buy another Terry Ryan blue light twice-waived bargain bin special.

    I don't disagree. I'd rather they found a better option.

     

    But in the context of this thread, and what they DO have, if they're truly trying to improve the D, i think the way to do that is start Adrianza.

    Guest

    Guest

  • Guests

    • Posted

    Gotta say this. I went to the game against Houston that ended Carlos Gomez' career as an Astro. It was one of Polanco's first games at SS after his call-up and he looked great! The Twins probably wouldn't have won the game if he hadn't fielded so well (and Gomez hadn't lost a catchable flyball). His downfall after that game surprised me, because he showed he had skills, especially after not playing SS in AAA.

    Eris

    Eris 1,629

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    It is reasonable to expect the league to push umpires to improve their ability to correctly call balls and strikes, regardless of catcher action, because it is now a prominent issue. The question is whether umpires are capable of improvement. If umpires do improve, the value of pitch framing will decrease.

    Umpires are like the rest of us, they all have differing skill sets.  Some of the umpires are also not young anymore.  In 2014, the average age of an MLB umpire was 45.8.  With increasing age, their reflexes (and thus their skills) decrease.  Additionally, MLB umpires have a very strong union and it is unlikely that umpires who are poor in calling balls and strikes will be pushed aside.  As an example, Joe West is still an MLB umpire (and still umping in playoff games).

     

    There is an additional component related to framing and electronic evaluations that is seldom discussed. This probably contributes to longer games.  Umpires, who are being graded on ball and strike calling, are less likely to expand the strike zone when the game is no longer close.  I can't speak for what happens at the ML level, but as a player I have told many times that because of the game situation or the weather that anything close would be a strike.  

    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Umpires are like the rest of us, they all have differing skill sets. Some of the umpires are also not young anymore. In 2014, the average age of an MLB umpire was 45.8. With increasing age, their reflexes (and thus their skills) decrease. Additionally, MLB umpires have a very strong union and it is unlikely that umpires who are poor in calling balls and strikes will be pushed aside. As an example, Joe West is still an MLB umpire (and still umping in playoff games).

     

    There is an additional component related to framing and electronic evaluations that is seldom discussed. This probably contributes to longer games. Umpires, who are being graded on ball and strike calling, are less likely to expand the strike zone when the game is no longer close. I can't speak for what happens at the ML level, but as a player I have told many times that because of the game situation or the weather that anything close would be a strike.

    Good. They shouldn't change the strike zone based on the score.



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